数据来源：国家统计局 制图：张丹峰 9月15日，国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师付凌晖在会上介绍了8 月国民经济运行情况。 工业生产较快增长、市场销售平稳增长、就业形势总体稳定……"8月宏观政策协同发力，国民经济 运行总体平稳，转型升级稳步推进，高质量发展取得新成效。"付凌晖说。 稳：经济运行总体平稳 8月国民经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，经济增长"稳"没有改变。 稳在生产平稳增长。 农业方面，早稻小幅增产，秋粮播种面积稳中略增，长势总体正常，畜牧业生产保持稳定。 工业方面，8月规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.2%，环比增长0.37%，继续保持较快增长。其中， 制造业发展态势较好，8月制造业增加值增长5.7%，快于规模以上工业增速。 服务业方面，8月服务业生产指数同比增长5.6%，增势好于工业。在暑期出行增多带动下，住宿餐 饮业生产指数增速比上月加快。 稳在内需稳步扩大。 进：消费延续扩大态势 "在各项促消费政策共同作用下，8月商品消费基本平稳，服务消费韧性较强，新型消费持续壮大， 市场空间还在拓展，消费扩大态势没有改变。"付凌晖说。 商品消费持续增长。8月商品零售额同比增长3.6%，增 ...

Core Insights - The total R&D investment of A-share listed companies exceeded 810 billion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.27%, with the growth rate improving by nearly 2 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - The overall R&D intensity reached 2.33%, showing a slight year-on-year increase, indicating a shift in innovation from being an optional action to a survival necessity [1] - Companies are increasingly viewing R&D as a critical investment for future competitiveness rather than a discretionary expense, thus solidifying the financial foundation for industrial upgrades [1] R&D Investment Trends - R&D investment growth is transitioning from focusing on individual projects to building a comprehensive system, enhancing collaborative innovation [2] - The R&D intensity for the ChiNext, Sci-Tech Innovation Board, and Beijing Stock Exchange was 4.89%, 11.78%, and 4.63% respectively, highlighting the increasing technological attributes of these markets [2] - 113 companies reported R&D investments exceeding 1 billion yuan, while 926 companies had R&D intensities over 10%, showcasing a collaborative R&D landscape that promotes overall industrial upgrades [2] Challenges in R&D Transformation - Despite high R&D investments, some companies face low patent conversion rates, with many research outcomes remaining unutilized in production [2][3] - The lack of a closed-loop mechanism from R&D to commercialization is a significant issue, with many projects failing to align with market needs and lacking professional teams for effective conversion [3] - Future success hinges on transitioning R&D investments from mere scale growth to quality and efficiency improvements, ensuring that R&D becomes a true incubator for technological innovation and an accelerator for industrial upgrades [3]

Group 1 - In the first half of the year, A-share listed companies' R&D investment exceeded 810 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.27%, with growth rate improving by nearly 2 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - The overall R&D intensity reached 2.33%, showing a slight year-on-year increase, indicating that innovation has shifted from an optional action to a survival necessity [1] - Companies are increasingly recognizing that market competition is driven by technology rather than just scale and cost, leading to a strategic shift in viewing R&D as a critical investment for future competitiveness [1] Group 2 - R&D investment growth is transitioning from focusing on individual projects to building systems and frameworks, enhancing collaborative innovation and overall industry upgrades [2] - The R&D intensity for the ChiNext, Sci-Tech Innovation Board, and Beijing Stock Exchange are 4.89%, 11.78%, and 4.63% respectively, highlighting the increasing technological attributes of these markets [2] - A total of 113 companies invested over 1 billion yuan in R&D, and 926 companies had an R&D intensity exceeding 10%, indicating a collaborative R&D landscape that fosters synergy and innovation [2] Group 3 - Despite high R&D investments, some companies face challenges in patent conversion rates, with many research outcomes remaining unutilized in production [3] - The lack of a closed-loop mechanism from R&D to commercialization is a key issue, with a disconnect between research directions and market needs [3] - Future success in R&D will depend on enhancing the conversion of research investments into practical applications, moving from mere investment to effective transformation [3]

Group 1: Industrial Capacity and Economic Trends - As of Q2 2025, China's industrial capacity reached 186.7 trillion yuan, accounting for 135.7% of GDP, down from 144.9% in Q4 2022[11] - China's industrial capacity has undergone three expansion phases: 2018, 2021, and 2023-2024[14] - The first capacity surplus occurred in 2015-2016, the second in 2020 due to the pandemic, and the third began in 2023, driven by capacity expansion and weak demand[30] Group 2: "Anti-Involution" Policy Impacts - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to create a turning point for declining capacity surplus and rising PPI, improving corporate profitability[7] - Historical data shows that each resolution of capacity surplus and recovery of PPI has led to a bull market in capital markets[61] - The capital market is anticipated to enter a bull market as a result of the "anti-involution" policy, similar to past instances in 2016-2017 and 2020-2021[61] Group 3: Risks and Future Considerations - Risks include slower-than-expected progress on "anti-involution," geopolitical risks, and potential deviations from historical patterns[3] - The need for demand-side measures to balance growth dynamics is emphasized, as reliance on manufacturing growth may weaken[60] - Enhancing non-manufacturing dynamics is crucial for achieving balanced growth, with potential strategies including infrastructure investment and boosting consumer spending[60]

Economic Overview - In July, key economic indicators showed fluctuations due to multiple factors, but overall growth remained stable, reflecting strong resilience and vitality in high-quality development [1] - The international environment remains complex and severe, with trade protectionism and extreme weather impacting economic operations [1] Industrial Growth - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises grew by 5.7% year-on-year, with manufacturing value-added increasing by 6.2% [2] - The equipment manufacturing sector showed robust growth, with an 8.4% increase in added value, significantly supporting overall industrial growth [2] - High-tech manufacturing added value rose by 9.3%, with notable growth in integrated circuits (26.9%) and electronic materials (21.7%) [2] Digital and Intelligent Transformation - The digital product manufacturing sector saw an 8.4% year-on-year increase, outpacing overall industrial growth [3] - Production of industrial robots and service robots increased by 24% and 12.8%, respectively, indicating rapid advancement in AI applications [3] - The "two new" initiatives are driving industrial production, with shipbuilding and motor manufacturing increasing by 29.7% and 15.9% [3] Consumer Market Dynamics - Retail sales in July grew by 3.7% year-on-year, with a slight decline from the previous month, but overall consumption trends remain positive [4] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has positively impacted sales of home appliances and communication devices, with significant growth rates in various categories [4] - Service retail related to cultural and recreational activities has also seen robust growth, driven by increased travel and entertainment demand [5] Emerging Consumption Trends - Online retail and new consumption models are thriving, with physical goods online retail growing by 6.3% year-on-year [6] - The development of live-streaming sales and other new consumption formats is maturing, contributing to new growth points in the consumer market [6] Economic Support Factors - The International Monetary Fund has raised its growth forecast for China's economy by 0.8 percentage points, reflecting increased confidence in economic development [7] - The expansion of market demand, supported by consumption and export growth, is creating favorable conditions for stable economic operation [7] - Continuous efforts in reform and opening up are improving economic circulation and enhancing the resilience of foreign trade [8] Policy Implementation - More proactive macroeconomic policies are being implemented to boost production demand and stabilize economic growth [8] - The focus on stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations is crucial for effectively releasing domestic demand potential [8]