证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 29 年 月 日 平煤股份（601666.SH） 成本优化对冲售价下行，"东引西进出海"值得期待 公司发布 2025 年一季度报告。2025 Q1 公司实现营业收入 54 亿元，同 比减少 34.69%；实现归母净利润 1.52 亿元，同比减少 79.50%。 价格下行拖累业绩，成本优化成效已现。 "东引西进出海"。2024 年以 17.48 亿元成功竞得 16.68 亿吨新疆托里 县塔城白杨河矿区铁厂沟一号井煤矿勘查探矿权；2025 年 1 月，公司公 告以约 6.6 亿元收购乌苏四棵树煤炭有限责任公司 60%的股权，其八号井 于 2007 年投产，核定生产能力 120 万吨/年。 成本优化持续推进。1）公司井下充填开采技术取得新突破，十一矿井下 充填开采单月产量由 2024 年年初的 3 万吨突破至 24 年财报披露时的 7.1 万吨，吨煤成本降低 22 元。2）构建物资全流程管控模式，物资消耗成本 月均降低 14%。3）主辅分离改革提质扩面。平稳完成 4 家选煤厂、天力 工程处和八矿后勤辅业分离近 600 人。4）财务资金管控效果显著 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 21,973 points, down 7 points, with a trading range of only 255 points, indicating a lack of direction in the market[1] - The market turnover was approximately HKD 163.8 billion, the lowest since February 4[1] - Net inflow from the Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 2.12 billion[1] Sector Performance - Major banks and some consumer brands showed strong performance, with four major banks rising between 0.7% and 2.8%[1] - Stocks like Mixue Group and Pop Mart surged between 4.1% and 12.0%, reaching new highs since their listings[1] - Yao Cai Securities saw a significant increase of 81.9% to HKD 5.55, following Ant Group's acquisition[1] Economic Indicators - The upcoming release of China's PMI data and the U.S. GDP for Q1 is expected to increase market volatility[1] - New home sales in 30 major cities fell by 23.3% year-on-year, indicating a continued decline in the real estate market[3] Valuation and Strategy - The current PE ratio of the Hang Seng Index is approximately 9.7 times, suggesting limited downside but requiring effective internal policies for upward movement[2] - Key focus areas for investment include AI infrastructure, consumer demand, and high-dividend state-owned enterprises[2] Coal Market Insights - Yancoal Australia reported a 12.8% year-on-year decline in average coal prices to AUD 157 per ton, influenced by strong market supply[7] - The company’s coal production increased by 8.0% to 9.5 million tons, but sales only rose by 1.2% due to inventory rebuilding[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include production delays, fluctuations in electricity and steel market demand, and geopolitical uncertainties[11]

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3288 | -0.2 | -1.8 | -0.09 | | | | | 8 | | | 深证综指 | 1898 | -0.9 | -6.3 | -0.68 | | 风格指数 | 昨日表现 | 1 个月表现 | 6 个月表 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （％） | （％） | 现（％） | | 大盘指数 | -0.06 | -3.09 | -3.93 | | 中盘指数 | -0.6 | -6.26 | -8.52 | | 小盘指数 | -0.85 | -6.2 | -2.74 | | 行业涨幅 | 昨日涨 | 1 个月涨 | 6 个月涨 | | 普钢Ⅱ | 1.64 | -3.29 | 2.87 | | 游戏Ⅱ | 1.3 | -4.5 | 2.38 | | 城商行Ⅱ | 1.24 | 3.41 | 10.11 | | 白色家电 | 1.07 | -3.32 | -4.88 | | 农商 ...

山西焦煤（000983）公告，2025年第一季度营收为90.26亿元，同比下降14.46%；净利润为6.81亿元， 同比下降28.33%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][10]. Core Views - The company has a strong cash position with a significant reduction in expenses year-on-year [2][6]. - The coal production and sales have shown stability, with a minor decrease in coal prices [6][9]. - The company is expected to face a decline in revenue and net profit in the upcoming years, but the overall asset quality is improving [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported revenue of 15.033 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.01% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.808 billion yuan, down 14.93% year-on-year [5][9]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.424 billion yuan, a decline of 33.73% year-on-year, with a net profit of 512 million yuan, down 34.35% year-on-year [5][9]. - The company’s cash reserves stood at 16.61 billion yuan at the end of 2024, an increase of 1.401 billion yuan from the previous year [6][9]. Production and Sales Summary - In 2024, the company produced 34.6664 million tons of raw coal, a slight decrease of 0.06% year-on-year, with a total sales volume of 29.9665 million tons, down 0.43% year-on-year [6][9]. - In Q1 2025, the company produced 7.8626 million tons of raw coal, a decrease of 6.94% year-on-year, while the sales volume was 5.2617 million tons, down 24.33% year-on-year [6][9]. Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The company’s gross profit margin for 2024 was 49.79%, a decrease of 2.02 percentage points year-on-year [6][10]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.30 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.85 [9][10]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline to 11% in 2025 from 15% in 2024 [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][19][24] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 69.59 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 21.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.95 billion yuan, down 18.0% [1][9] - The acquisition of Hanjin Energy was completed in February 2025, contributing to the company's consolidated financial statements [1][9] - The company aims for stable growth in 2025, with plans to repurchase H-shares to enhance market confidence and continue asset injections [4][18][19] Summary by Sections Coal Business - The coal production in Q1 2025 was 8.25 million tons, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, while coal sales were 9.93 million tons, down 15.3% [2][10] - The average selling price for self-produced coal was 484 yuan per ton, down 44 yuan, and for purchased coal was 586 yuan per ton, down 91 yuan [2][10] - The coal business achieved a gross profit of 15.2 billion yuan, a decline of 22.5% year-on-year [2][10] Power Business - The company generated and sold 50.42 billion and 47.47 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in Q1 2025, both down 10.7% year-on-year [3][16] - The average selling price of electricity was 386 yuan per megawatt-hour, down 5.6% [3][16] - The gross margin for the power segment was 15.4%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [3][16] Transportation Business - Revenue from the railway, port, and shipping segments in Q1 2025 was 10.5 billion, 1.6 billion, and 0.7 billion yuan, respectively, showing declines of 10.5%, 7.2%, and 41% [4][16] - The total profit for the railway, port, and shipping segments was 3.5 billion, 0.6 billion, and 0.03 billion yuan, respectively, with significant year-on-year decreases [4][16] Financial Forecast - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders to be 53.6 billion, 54.4 billion, and 55.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][19] - The company is recognized as a leading coal-based integrated energy enterprise with strong operational stability and a high dividend rate [5][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][6][20] Core Views - The company is focusing on cost reduction and increasing production to offset the decline in coal prices, while also enhancing shareholder returns through increased dividend frequency [1][4][18] - The company plans to maintain a mid-term dividend in 2025, with a payout ratio of no less than 30% [3][18] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 38.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.98 billion yuan, down 20.0% [1][9] - The coal business showed stable production and sales, with a total coal production of 33.35 million tons, an increase of 1.9% year-on-year [2][11] - The average selling price for self-produced thermal coal and coking coal was 454 yuan/ton and 922 yuan/ton, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [2][11] Coal Business - The company reported a decrease in gross profit for the coal segment to 7.45 billion yuan, down 26.7 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in coal prices [2][11] - The unit sales cost for self-produced coal decreased to 269.8 yuan/ton, a reduction of 21.2 yuan/ton year-on-year, attributed to various cost management strategies [2][11] Coal Chemical Business - The coal chemical segment saw an increase in production and sales, with total production and sales of 1.559 million tons and 1.625 million tons, respectively, up 10.6% and 12.1% year-on-year [3][16] - The unit sales costs for major products decreased due to falling coal prices, with reductions of 2.1% to 18.8% across various products [3][16] Profit Forecast and Financial Indicators - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 16.8 billion yuan, 16.9 billion yuan, and 17.7 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to anticipated coal price declines [4][20] - Key financial metrics include a projected net profit margin of 15.2% for 2025 and a return on equity (ROE) of 10.3% [5][21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance has declined due to slight decreases in coal prices and volumes, with a focus on potential asset injections and dividend capabilities [1][4] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 15.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.81 billion yuan, down 14.9% year-on-year [1][5] - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit in 2026 and 2027, with forecasts of 2.46 billion yuan and 2.61 billion yuan respectively, indicating a recovery trend [1][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company’s coal production was 34.67 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, while coal sales were 29.97 million tons, down 0.4% year-on-year [5] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 490.6 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1% year-on-year, and in Q1 2025, it dropped to 426.1 yuan per ton, down 16.4% year-on-year [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7.55 yuan per 10 shares, with a dividend payout ratio of 45%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.94 percentage points [6] Asset Injection and Growth Potential - There are expectations for asset injections from the parent company, which has a coal production capacity of nearly 400 million tons per year, compared to the company's current capacity of 34.5 million tons per year [6] - The company has significant room for capacity expansion, which could enhance its growth potential in the future [6] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.36 yuan, 1.47 yuan, and 1.56 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8.4, 7.8, and 7.3 [1][7] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 14.7% in 2024 to 10.3% in 2027, indicating a potential decrease in profitability [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9] Core Views - The company achieved a year-on-year increase in coal production and sales in 2024 and Q1 2025, indicating resilience in performance despite market challenges [6][8] - The company's revenue for 2024 was CNY 184.145 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 22.36 billion, a decrease of 3.21% [5][6] - The report highlights a high dividend policy and anticipates stable business growth, with a projected EPS of CNY 1.91 for 2025 [8][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a coal production of 170.4846 million tons, up 4.13% year-on-year, and coal sales of 258.4308 million tons, up 9.13% year-on-year [6] - For Q1 2025, coal production was 43.9377 million tons, a 6.00% increase year-on-year, with self-produced coal sales at 39.5467 million tons, up 5.81% [6] Pricing and Costs - The average selling price of self-produced coal in 2024 was CNY 532 per ton, down CNY 59.05 per ton (-10.0%) year-on-year, while the unit cost was CNY 260.2 per ton, a decrease of 1.6% [6] - The overall gross margin for the coal business decreased due to falling prices [6] Power Generation - The total power generation in 2024 was 37.615 billion kWh, an increase of 4.41% year-on-year, while the total sales volume was 35.126 billion kWh, also up 4.37% [6] - The average selling price for electricity was CNY 399.23 per MWh, down 4.8% year-on-year, leading to a gross profit of CNY 2.29 billion, a decrease of 21.78% [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are CNY 163.777 billion, CNY 172.651 billion, and CNY 182.248 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be CNY 18.535 billion, CNY 19.425 billion, and CNY 20.711 billion [8][9] - The report anticipates a stable business environment with a high dividend yield, maintaining a "Buy" rating [8][9]

| 日期 | 2025/4/25 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 12.43 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 26.00/11.90 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,247.95 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 736.34 | | 总股本(亿股) | 100.40 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 59.24 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 25.5 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 兖矿能源 沪深300 相关研究报告 《成本管控对冲煤价下跌影响，关注 煤炭主业成长—公司 2024年报点评报 告》-2025.3.31 《Q3 业绩稳健海外高增，兼具高分红 与 高 成 长 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.10.28 煤炭/煤炭开采 兖矿能源（600188.SH） 煤炭量价齐跌致业绩承压，关注煤炭煤化工成长 2025 年 04 月 28 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 财务摘要和估值指标 | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E ...