2025 年 10 月 22 日 集运指数（欧线）：现实好于预期，相对抗跌 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2510 | 1,135.0 | 2.94% | 2,368 | 6,372 | -2,024 | 0.37 | | 0.14 | | | EC2512 | 1,769.3 | 5.10% | 42,939 | 28,434 | 2,333 | 1.51 | | 0.93 | | | EC2602 | 1,568.0 | 2.87% | 5,402 | 10,233 | 130 | 0.53 | | 0.69 | | | EC2512 - EC260 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Global Market Volatility**: There is a risk of increased volatility in global major assets next week. In the overseas market, the catalytic effect of government shutdowns and data vacuums on interest - rate cut expectations is reduced, and the marginal support for risk assets may decline, increasing market volatility. In the domestic market, there are marginal policy changes, and physical work volume may rebound in the fourth quarter. Low - valued domestic commodity assets under pressure may have a rebound opportunity [7]. - **Asset Performance**: Precious metals and equity markets, which were most benefited from liquidity, may face increased short - term volatility. In the domestic market, low - valued commodity assets may rebound [7]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Market Index and Asset Price Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4577.6, up 1.57% daily, 2.06% weekly, down 0.87% monthly and quarterly, and up 16.75% this year. The SSE 50 futures closed at 3004.8, up 1.16% daily, 1.41% weekly, up 0.53% monthly and quarterly, and up 12.20% this year. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7052.8, with a complex set of fluctuations including a 2.08% daily increase and others [4]. - **Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures closed at 102.372, up 0.04% daily, down 0.01% weekly, and flat monthly and quarterly, down 0.58% this year. The 5 - year treasury bond futures closed at 105.715, up 0.06% daily, down 0.06% weekly, up 0.08% monthly and quarterly, down 0.77% this year [4]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.6219, unchanged daily, up 0.07% weekly, up 0.82% monthly, and down 9.03% this year. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1642, with various pip - based fluctuations [4]. - **Commodity Futures**: Overseas, COMEX gold closed at 4374.3, up 2.49% daily, 12.5% monthly, and 65.74% this year. NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at 56.93, down 0.56% daily, 8.81% monthly, and 20.79% this year. In the domestic market, the container shipping European line index was at 1769.3, up 5.19% daily, 6.93% weekly, and down 21.61% this year [4][5]. 3.2 Sector - by - Sector Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock markets showed a shrinking - volume rebound, and bond markets remained weak. Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate upwards due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles. Stock index options are expected to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures are also expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Dovish expectations drive prices up. Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate upwards, considering factors such as the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and the increased risk of the Fed's independence [8]. - **Shipping**: Attention should be paid to the rate of freight - price decline. The container shipping European line is expected to fluctuate as the peak season in the third quarter fades, and there is a lack of upward - driving force [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: The industry's demand data is poor, and it is expected that policies will release positive signals. Steel, iron ore, coke, and other products are expected to fluctuate, with various influencing factors such as policy changes, supply - and - demand situations, and production data [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: They are waiting for the clarity of macro - policies, and basic metals are in a state of shock consolidation. Copper, aluminum, zinc, and other metals have different short - term expectations based on factors such as supply - and - demand, policy, and inventory [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The trade - tension situation has slightly eased, but the supply - and - demand pattern of energy and chemicals remains weak. Crude oil, LPG, and many other products are expected to fluctuate, with most showing a downward - trending or complex - fluctuating state due to factors such as cost, supply - and - demand, and policy [10]. - **Agriculture**: The mood has warmed up, but the trends are differentiated. Oils, protein meals, and other agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, affected by factors such as planting progress, weather, and trade relations [10].

Investment Overview - The company plans to invest up to 1.4 billion RMB to build four 2700 TEU container ships to optimize fleet structure and enhance service capabilities [1][2] - The investment will be executed through a wholly-owned subsidiary in Singapore, with a total investment amount of approximately 1.194 billion RMB for the project [1][2] Investment Progress - As of the announcement date, the company has obtained necessary certificates for overseas investment and completed registration for the Singapore subsidiary [2] - Contracts for the construction of the four container ships have been signed with two shipbuilding companies, with a total contract value of 1.184 billion RMB [2][10] Company Information - The newly established Singapore subsidiary is named Ningbo Ocean Shipping (Singapore) Longitude Pte. Ltd., with a registered capital of 5 million SGD [3][4] - The subsidiary will focus on shipping operations, including ship chartering and management services [5] Contractual Details - Each shipbuilding contract is valued at 296 million RMB, with fixed pricing that does not fluctuate with market prices [11] - The delivery of the ships is scheduled to be completed by April 30, 2028, with specific payment terms outlined across multiple stages [11][15] Strategic Impact - This investment aligns with the company's strategic goals and is expected to strengthen its core competitiveness in the shipping industry [16] - The company will monitor various external factors that may impact the investment's progress and outcomes [16]

Group 1 - The U.S. has implemented port fees targeting Chinese vessels, charging $50 per net ton for Chinese-owned or operated ships, effective from October 14, with fees set to increase annually [1] - The U.S. will impose a 100% additional tariff on specific Chinese-manufactured port equipment starting November 9 [1] - In response, China has introduced special port fees for U.S.-flagged and U.S.-owned vessels, starting at 400 RMB per net ton, while exempting Chinese-built ships to protect its shipbuilding industry [4][6] Group 2 - The symmetrical nature of the fees ($50 per net ton vs. 400 RMB per net ton) is seen as a direct counter to U.S. attempts to revive its shipbuilding industry through foreign enterprises [6] - China's Customs spokesperson characterized the response as a "necessary defensive action" aimed at maintaining fair competition in international shipping [6] - The trade friction has expanded from traditional tariff disputes to broader strategic industries like shipping and shipbuilding [6][11] Group 3 - The U.S. strategy appears to aim at weakening China's international trade advantages, which has led to self-inflicted economic harm [7] - The ongoing trade war reflects a shift from a rules-based order to a power-based rules system, where international rules are defined through the dynamics of great power competition [11][25] - The recent sanctions and counter-sanctions highlight a significant transformation in the international economic landscape, moving away from a unipolar to a multipolar framework [25][26]

Group 1: Oil and Energy Sector - The Ministry of Commerce announced the total import quota for non-state trade of crude oil for 2026 is set at 25.7 million tons, with specific application conditions including ownership of oil terminals and bank credit requirements [2] - The successful impoundment of the Dadu River Jinchuan Hydropower Station is expected to replace approximately 1 million tons of coal consumption annually, contributing to a reduction of about 1 million tons of CO2 emissions [3] - The largest pumped storage unit in China, located at the Zhejiang Tiantai Pumped Storage Power Station, successfully completed its first operation, marking significant progress in a key national project [3] Group 2: Green Technology and Innovation - China has established a preliminary technical specification system for green ships and offshore facilities, aligning with international greenhouse gas reduction targets and promoting the standardization of green technologies [2] - The launch of the methanol electric dual-purpose vessel "Yuanchun 001" in Shanghai represents a new model for green shipping applications in inland waterways [4] Group 3: Regional Developments - In Guangxi, the energy block trading volume has surpassed 20.5 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 15% of the total electricity market transactions in the region [5] - Guangdong's action plan aims to accelerate the digital transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises, focusing on the application of model algorithms in various sectors [4] Group 4: International Energy Policy - The European Union has agreed to gradually stop importing natural gas from Russia by 2028, with a transition period for existing contracts until mid-2026 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Ocean Shipping Co., Ltd. is advancing its strategy by investing in the construction of four 2700 TEU container ships and establishing a wholly-owned subsidiary in Singapore to manage this project [2][3][19]. Group 1: Investment in Container Ships - The company plans to invest up to 1.4 billion RMB to build four 2700 TEU container ships, aiming to optimize its fleet structure and enhance service capabilities [2]. - The investment for the construction of the ships is authorized to be managed by the company's operational management team through market research and competitive bidding [2]. Group 2: Establishment of Overseas Company - The company has approved the establishment of Ningbo Ocean (Singapore) Longitude Pte. Ltd. in Singapore, with an investment of approximately 1.194 billion RMB, to oversee the construction and operation of the new container ships [3][4]. - The overseas company has completed the necessary registration procedures in Singapore and has received the required investment certificates from local authorities [4]. Group 3: Contractual Agreements - Contracts have been signed with China Shipbuilding Huangpu Wenchong Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. and China Shipbuilding Industry Trade Co., Ltd. for the construction of the four container ships, with a total contract value of approximately 1.184 billion RMB [4][12]. - Each ship's construction contract is fixed at 296 million RMB, with specific payment terms outlined for different stages of the construction process [13][15]. Group 4: Company Structure and Operations - Ningbo Ocean (Singapore) Longitude Pte. Ltd. is a private limited company with a registered capital of 5 million SGD, focusing on shipping and ship management services [5][7]. - The company is wholly owned by Ningbo Ocean (Singapore) Co., Ltd., which will manage the investment and operational activities related to the new container ships [8].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Ningbo Ocean (601022) has made progress in establishing an overseas company and investing in the construction of four container ships, with a total investment of approximately 11.84 billion RMB [1][3]. Group 2 - As of October 21, 2025, Ningbo Ocean's stock closed at 10.66 RMB, up 1.91%, with a turnover rate of 13.3% and a trading volume of 330,700 hands, resulting in a transaction amount of 349 million RMB [1]. - On October 21, the net outflow of main funds was 15.86 million RMB, accounting for 4.55% of the total transaction amount; the net outflow of retail funds was 20.36 million RMB, accounting for 5.84%; while retail investors had a net inflow of 36.22 million RMB, accounting for 10.39% [1][3]. - The investment involves the establishment of Ningbo Ocean (Singapore) Navigation Co., Ltd. in Singapore, which has signed contracts for the construction of four 2,700 TEU container ships with a contract amount of 2.96 billion RMB each, totaling 11.84 billion RMB [1][3]. - The container ships will have a deadweight tonnage of 36,900 tons and are scheduled for delivery by April 30, 2028 [1][3].

你有没有觉得，这两年海淘的包裹越来越慢，超市里有些洋玩意儿也老断货？你可能想不到，这背后是一场太平洋上的神 仙打架，而咱们普通人，正在不知不觉中为这场大戏买单。 当两个大块头在屋子里打架时，最先遭殃的会是什么？你可能以为是屋里的花瓶桌椅，但现实往往更魔幻——最先发财 的，居然是隔壁邻居。这事儿就真真切切地发生在全球航运这摊浑水里。普通人可能没啥感觉，顶多觉得最近海淘慢了 点，超市里有些进口货架好像空得快了些。但你要是去问问日韩造船厂的老板，他们估计能笑得合不拢嘴。就在中美航运 巨头互相"开炮"的时候，日韩那边的造船厂，接新船订单的电话都快被打爆了。数据摆在那，新船订单量同比猛增了整整 20%，这可是实打实的真金白银。本来他俩在中美这两个巨无霸的夹缝里过得挺憋屈，现在倒好，天上掉下来这么大个馅 饼，砸得他们有点晕，但更多的是狂喜。 更绝的还在后头。镜头往南边拉，美国的邻居墨西哥，在2023年干了件大事。这事儿没上什么热搜，但分量可不轻——墨 西哥悄无声息地超过了中国，成了美国最大的贸易伙伴。这可是二十多年来头一遭。这背后，可不是简单的买卖关系变 了，而是一场席卷全球的产业链大迁徙，无数工厂、工人和集装箱，正在用 ...

Group 1 - The stock of Haitong Development (603162) fell by 8.05% today, with a turnover rate of 23.10% and a trading volume of 730 million yuan, indicating significant market activity [2] - Institutional investors net sold 14.05 million yuan, while the Shanghai Stock Connect saw a net sell of 31.70 million yuan, suggesting a bearish sentiment among institutional players [2] - The stock was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's watch list due to a turnover rate of 23.10% and a daily decline deviation of -9.41% [2] Group 2 - For the third quarter, the company reported a revenue of 3.009 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.32%, but a net profit of 253 million yuan, which represents a year-on-year decline of 38.47% [3] - In the past five days, three institutions rated the stock as a buy, with Huachuang Securities setting the highest target price at 13.80 yuan [3] - The top five trading departments accounted for a total transaction of 192 million yuan, with a net buying amount of 8.22 million yuan [2][3]

Core Insights - The shipping industry is facing significant uncertainties, including energy structure adjustments, climate change challenges, and supply chain restructuring, with digitalization and intelligence becoming key solutions for development [1] Group 1: Digital Transformation in Shipping - The transformation towards digital intelligence in the shipping industry is a new trend and a strategic focus for the high-quality construction of the Shanghai International Shipping Center [1] - Global shipping giants are actively promoting digital technology development, with companies like Maersk exploring autonomous driving technology and supply chain efficiency improvements [3] - In China, state policies have supported the development of intelligent shipping since the 13th Five-Year Plan, with companies like COSCO Shipping Group and China Merchants Group implementing digital technology applications [3] Group 2: Technological Advancements in Shanghai - Shanghai is advancing its port and shipping digital transformation, with the Yangshan Deep-Water Port Phase IV automation terminal utilizing 5G and AI technology, achieving a 30% increase in container loading and unloading efficiency [4] - The establishment of blockchain infrastructure for shipping hubs has been completed, with electronic bills of lading and multi-modal transport services now operational [4] Group 3: Challenges in Digitalization - The shipping industry's digitalization faces challenges such as the need for unified standards, data accessibility, and sufficient collaboration among stakeholders [5] - Differences in smart ship technology standards between countries and data sharing barriers are significant obstacles to the industrialization of new digital technologies in shipping [5][6] - A public framework with standardized data rules and government principles is necessary to ensure interoperability among platforms, ports, and vessels [6]