随着鲍威尔大概率卸任主席，其是否留任理事成焦点——留任将保留货币政策话语权，也可能成为抵御 特朗普干预的屏障。 摘要今日周四(1月22日)亚盘时段，黄金t+d目前交投于1069.28元附近，截至发稿，黄金t+d暂报1071.65 元/克，跌幅0.69%，最高触及1093.80元/克，最低下探1069.28元/克。目前来看，黄金t+d短线偏向看跌 走势。 【最新黄金t+d行情解析】 今日周四(1月22日)亚盘时段，黄金t+d目前交投于1069.28元附近，截至发稿，黄金t+d暂报1071.65元/ 克，跌幅0.69%，最高触及1093.80元/克，最低下探1069.28元/克。目前来看，黄金t+d短线偏向看跌走 势。 【要闻速递】 当地时间1月21日，特朗普在达沃斯论坛表示，历时数月的美联储主席遴选已近尾声，候选名单从最初 11人缩至"或许只剩一人"，但未透露具体姓名。热门人选包括前理事凯文.沃什、现任理事克里斯托弗. 沃勒、国家经济委员会主任凯文.哈塞特及贝莱德高管里克.里德。因特朗普更希望哈塞特留任现职，其 或退出角逐。 特朗普延续对美联储施压，其试图罢免理事丽莎.库克的举动正由最高法院审理。若鲍威尔被撤主 ...

Group 1 - Global financial leaders warn that government fiscal irresponsibility and geopolitical fragmentation may negate the productivity gains from AI [3][4] - The discussion at the World Economic Forum highlighted the parallels between the current economic climate and the pre-Great Depression era, particularly in terms of technological advancements and political failures [4][7] - Ken Griffin emphasized that the core risk in 2026 is not from private capital markets but from reckless government spending, with U.S. national debt reaching $38 trillion [5][7] Group 2 - Adam Tooze pointed out that the current technological boom, driven by AI, mirrors the 1920s' electrification and mass production, but political failures could lead to economic collapse [4][7] - Christine Lagarde noted that global trade is under unprecedented pressure due to geopolitical fragmentation and tariffs, which could hinder the scale effects needed for AI [4][10] - The average tariff between the U.S. and Europe has surged from 2% to over 12%, with a potential rise to 15%, impacting inflation and economic growth [10][11] Group 3 - Larry Fink stated that AI is not a bubble but will lead to significant failures, creating a "K-shaped" economy where large firms benefit disproportionately [6][8] - The cost of developing cutting-edge AI models is around $1 billion, and U.S. capital expenditure on data centers is projected to reach $600 billion this year [8][10] - Lagarde warned that geopolitical divisions and protectionism could obstruct the data flow necessary for AI efficiency [8][10] Group 4 - The discussion highlighted the importance of central bank independence in managing fiscal policies and avoiding reliance on monetary solutions to address structural imbalances [12][33] - Lagarde emphasized that not all debt is equal, and productive investments will always find funding, while non-productive debt will face challenges [33][42] - The need for cooperation in managing AI's development and its implications for society was underscored, with concerns about energy consumption and social consequences [32][34]

Group 1 - Manulife Investment Management's executives believe that the entire Chinese market will perform well and present value creation opportunities [1] - The global market is expected to continue expanding participation, with non-U.S. markets likely to outperform the U.S. due to high valuations and overexposure to U.S. stocks [4] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar is anticipated to benefit non-U.S. assets, particularly emerging markets, as most debt issuance and investment sources in these economies are dollar-denominated [4][5] Group 2 - There is a growing optimism towards the Chinese stock market, driven by favorable market sentiment and government stimulus measures, particularly in manufacturing and infrastructure [6] - The trend of investors shifting from Indian assets to Chinese assets is expected to continue, as China becomes a more attractive destination for international funds [6] - The potential for significant capital expenditure in AI and technology sectors in Asia is highlighted as a key theme for future growth [5][6] Group 3 - The risk to the independence of the Federal Reserve has resurfaced due to escalating conflicts between President Trump and the Fed, although the market does not seem overly concerned [7][8] - There is a possibility of aggressive rate cuts by the Fed in the post-Powell era, which could lead to concerns about inflation if rates are lowered too drastically [8] - The Fed is expected to maintain its independence while potentially aligning more closely with the Trump administration's growth and employment focus [8] Group 4 - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are experiencing a bull market driven by geopolitical risks, U.S. policy uncertainties, and increasing demand for non-U.S. assets [9] - Gold prices are expected to reach new highs in the coming years, while silver may also see price increases despite higher volatility [9][10] - Industrial metals are projected to benefit from a favorable demand environment, although trade dynamics and tariffs may introduce volatility [10]

Core Insights - The selection process for the new Federal Reserve Chair, initiated in September last year, is nearing completion with a significant reduction in candidates [1] - The final candidate is expected to be a highly respected male figure [1] Candidate Overview - The candidate landscape has shifted notably, with former frontrunner Kevin Hassett opting to remain in his current position, thus withdrawing from the race [3] - The two most prominent candidates now are former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh and BlackRock's Head of Fixed Income, Rick Riedel [3] - Walsh has extensive experience and has been a focus of attention during the selection process, especially after Hassett's decision [3] - Riedel's profile has risen significantly, having previously engaged in discussions with the Treasury Secretary regarding key operational reforms at the Fed [3] Confirmation Environment - The current scrutiny environment is impacting the selection of the Fed Chair nominees, with Riedel viewed as a candidate likely to pass Senate confirmation due to his limited political involvement [4] - Riedel's work philosophy aligns closely with the current administration's expectations, enhancing his candidacy [4] - The selection of the new Fed Chair is a critical juncture following a year of changes within the institution, with the current Chair Powell's term ending in May [4]

2026年1月21日，瑞士达沃斯。 "从某种意义上说，美国未来可能会成为自身成功的受害者。"海菲尔说。 一场演讲与一个投资决定 海菲尔提到的第一个背景，并非来自金融市场，而是政治叙事。 在达沃斯论坛期间，加拿大总理、前英国央行行长马克·卡尼的一场演讲，被不少与会者反复提及。卡 尼在演讲中直言，以规则为基础的旧国际秩序已经结束，世界正在进入大国竞争时代。在这种环境下， 中等国家如果继续停留在对过去的怀旧之中，将难以应对现实挑战。 "我觉得他说出了很多人正在感受到、但还没有完全说清楚的东西。"海菲尔如此评价。在他看来，这种 判断并不只是政治层面的感慨，而正在逐步反映到投资决策中。 丹麦投资机构的举动，正是这种情绪在资产配置层面的体现之一。尽管体量有限，但在当前高度敏感的 市场环境下，任何"减持美债"的表态，都会被迅速放大解读。 美国总统特朗普时隔数年后再次出席达沃斯论坛，并发表了特别讲话。随后，在与北约秘书长吕特会晤 后，特朗普称，暂时不会按原定计划向反对美国得到格陵兰岛的欧洲八国加征关税。 同一天，第一财经记者来到瑞银集团位于达沃斯小镇的办事处，采访瑞银财富管理全球首席投资总监马 克·海菲尔（Mark Haef ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the paradox of increased effort in investing leading to lower returns, emphasizing the concept of "inertia" in behavioral finance and the importance of default investment options to improve investor outcomes [1][3][4]. Group 1: Investment Behavior - Many investors believe they are actively managing their portfolios, but in reality, a significant amount of funds remain idle in cash, particularly in individual retirement accounts (IRAs) [5][6]. - Research indicates that younger investors often leave their funds in cash for extended periods, sometimes over seven years, which is detrimental to their long-term retirement savings [5][6]. - The lack of awareness about their investment allocations contributes to this issue, as many investors mistakenly think their funds are invested in the market [6][7]. Group 2: The Role of Inertia - Inertia, or the tendency to do nothing, is identified as a powerful force in behavioral finance, influencing investment decisions significantly [7][8]. - Default options in investment plans, such as target-date funds, can lead to better long-term outcomes for investors by automatically directing funds away from cash [8][10]. - The article highlights that the design of investment plans can either exacerbate or mitigate the negative effects of inertia, depending on whether they include beneficial default options [10][11]. Group 3: Market Predictions and Adjustments - Investors often base their market predictions on recent performance, which can lead to incorrect expectations about future market movements [11][12]. - The article suggests that investors should focus on long-term strategies and be prepared for market corrections, as overexposure to equities can occur during prolonged market uptrends [11][12]. - Rebalancing portfolios to maintain desired asset allocations is recommended as a proactive measure to manage risk [12]. Group 4: Financial Education and Personalization - The future of behavioral finance is expected to focus on individual well-being and personalized financial advice, taking into account unique investor goals and preferences [13][14]. - Early financial education for children is emphasized as crucial for developing healthy financial habits and decision-making skills [18][19]. - The article advocates for simplifying financial concepts and making learning enjoyable to foster positive attitudes towards money management among young individuals [18].

本月政府动用司法部威胁现任主席鲍威尔后，市场对Hassett的怀疑似乎进一步加深。特朗普本人上周在 白宫活动上对Hassett表示："说实话，我其实想让你留在现在的位置。"这似乎降低了Hassett的胜算。 与此同时，目前在博彩市场上领先的Kevin Warsh远非特朗普的"完美组合"。尽管他最近通过媒体露面 讨好特朗普白宫，但Warsh本质上是一位终身鹰派人士和量化宽松的坚定批评者，不太可能实现特朗普 大幅降低政策利率的愿望。他在胡佛研究所的自由市场保守主义理念更接近共和党的早期时代，而非特 朗普所代表的MAGA民粹主义。 Rieder：债券市场"全球主义者" Rick Rieder是贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官，这位黑马候选人的支持率近日飙升。据悉，Rieder上周 四与特朗普的面试进展顺利，博彩市场目前给予他仅次于Warsh的第二高胜率。他被视为受人尊敬的市 场内部人士，了解市场运作机制，可能获得参议院支持。 特朗普为美联储主席人选设定的"完美标准"正面临现实困境，他希望找到一位既忠诚于白宫、又能获得 市场信任并推动长期借贷成本下降的候选人，但这样的"独角兽"或许并不存在。随着两位热门人选 Kevin ...

特此公告。 上海海通证券资产管理有限公司 2026年1月22日 上海海通证券资产管理有限公司（以下简称"管理人"）旗下海通量化价值精选一年持有期混合型集合资 产管理计划（以下简称"本集合计划"）已触发合同终止情形，本集合计划最后运作日为2025年12月31 日。 根据本集合计划资产管理合同约定，本集合计划于2025年12月31日终止。本集合计划自2026年1月1日起 进入清算程序，清算期自2026年1月1日开始至2026年1月19日结束。集合计划财产清算报告报监管机构 备案后，管理人于2026年1月21日在规定网站上刊登《海通量化价值精选一年持有期混合型集合资产管 理计划清算报告》。 根据法律法规、本集合计划资产管理合同及清算报告的相关规定，本集合计划应分配剩余财产共计人民 币26,595,462.19元（其中，A类份额类别应分配剩余财产为人民币16,110,571.78元，B类份额类别应分配 剩余财产为人民币9,252,716.84元，C类份额类别应分配剩余财产为人民币1,232,173.57元），将按本集 合计划最后运作日各份额类别集合计划份额持有人持有的份额比例以现金方式进行分配。2026年1月20 日 ...

Core Viewpoint - F/m Investments is seeking a regulatory exemption from the U.S. SEC to test the feasibility of securities tokenization by integrating blockchain technology into the record-keeping of existing shareholders for its approximately $6.3 billion U.S. 3-month Treasury ETF (TBIL) without altering the product structure, investment targets, or trading methods [1] Company Overview - F/m Investments was established in 2018 and currently manages assets totaling approximately $18 billion [1]

本公司董事会及董事保证基金2025年4季度报告所载资料不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并 对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 特此公告。 上海国泰海通证券资产管理有限公司 2026年1月22日 上海国泰海通证券资产管理有限公司旗下的71只基金2025年4季度报告全文于2026年1月22日在本公司网 站（http://www.gthtzg.com）和中国证监会基金电子披露网站（http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund）披露，供投资 者查阅。如有疑问可拨打本公司客服电话（95521）咨询。具体基金明细如下： ■■ 本基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一定盈利，也不保 证最低收益。请充分了解基金的风险收益特征，审慎做出投资决定。 ...