1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - Valuation shows marginal profit gradually recovering, with synchronized contraction in PP and PE supply - demand, inventory accumulation, and a weak demand trend. PP maintenance has peaked, while PE maintenance first rises then falls. There are few import offers, and some Middle - East devices are shut down due to power issues. There will be a seasonal recovery in demand at the end of July. There is a risk of capacity withdrawal for devices over 20 years old. Strategy: unilateral short - term opportunity for PP with a bearish bias, and range - bound buying for PE [2] Methanol Industry - Inland prices fluctuate slightly. Supply has high maintenance losses in July but with expected复产. Demand is restricted by the traditional off - season of downstream industries, and new capacity launch affects the market. At the port, the basis strengthens. Overseas Iranian device production is back, with expected imports of 125 million tons in July and a slight decline in August. After MTO profit repair, maintenance is uncertain. There will be inventory accumulation from July to August, and prices are weak [5] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improves in July. Although there are production news releases, the impact on loss volume is limited. Downstream price transmission is poor except for styrene. With high import expectations and high port inventory, its own driving force is limited. However, it may be boosted in the short - term, but the rebound space is limited. For styrene, the industry profit is maintained, and the operating rate is high. The supply - demand margin is repaired, but the supply - demand outlook is weak, and port inventory increases. It is boosted in the short - term but has limited upside [7] Polyester Industry Chain - In July, the PX supply - demand is good overall. Although some factory loads fluctuate, the overall supply impact is limited. Downstream PTA has increased maintenance expectations after significant processing fee compression, and terminal demand feedback is negative. PX demand support is weak. Considering new PTA capacity, the PX supply - demand outlook is tight, and PXN has some support. It may be boosted in the short - term but is restricted by demand and oil price expectations. For PTA, the load is around 80%, and with new device expectations and weak terminal demand, the supply - demand outlook is weak. It may be supported in the short - term by market sentiment. For other products like MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, their supply - demand and price trends are analyzed respectively [11] Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly. The upper pressure comes from US tariff threats and EU sanctions on Russia, while the lower support is from the diesel fundamentals. Diesel cracking profit in Europe reaches a high level since 2024, indicating a tight medium - heavy crude oil structure. Refinery high - operating rates lead to counter - seasonal diesel inventory drawdown. Oil prices show a wide - range oscillation pattern, and the short - term direction depends on sanctions' impact on Russian supply and tariff risks [32] Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the futures price is boosted by policies, and there is an expectation of industry capacity reduction. The spot trading is average, and the price in Guangdong drops. Low - grade caustic soda has low inventory due to alumina demand, but non - aluminum downstream resists high prices. The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is an upward price expectation in the peak season. For PVC, the futures price is also boosted by policies, but the spot market has little change. The supply - demand is in an off - season with increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the inventory slightly accumulates. Short - term trading is mainly driven by macro - sentiment [36][37] Urea Industry - The core driver of the urea futures is macro - policy. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policies are interpreted as beneficial for the urea industry, which may reduce large - particle supply. Although export data shows weakness, policy news boosts market sentiment. The futures price rise stimulates spot trading, and the basis has a repair expectation. In the short - term, the capacity reduction probability is low, but in the long - term, there may be a transformation in urea production capacity structure. The market should focus on export quota execution and trading expectations [41][42] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of L and PP increased on July 21 compared to July 18, with varying increase rates. The basis and price differences between different contracts also changed [2] - **Supply and Demand**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased slightly, and downstream operating rates also showed a downward trend. Inventories of PE and PP increased [2] Methanol Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of methanol changed slightly. The basis strengthened at the port, and regional price differences also had some changes [5] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply in July had high maintenance losses but with expected复产. Demand was restricted by the off - season. At the port, imports were expected to increase in July and decrease slightly in August, and there would be inventory accumulation from July to August [5] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices**: Prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products increased on July 21 compared to July 18, and the cash - flow and price differences also changed [7] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improved in July, but downstream price transmission was poor. For styrene, the industry profit was maintained, and the operating rate was high, but the supply - demand outlook was weak [7] Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: Prices of upstream raw materials such as oil, PX, and downstream polyester products changed slightly on July 21 compared to July 18. Processing fees and price differences also had corresponding changes [11] - **Supply and Demand**: PX supply - demand was good overall, but downstream PTA had increased maintenance expectations. For other products like MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, their supply - demand situations were analyzed respectively [11] Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC oil prices decreased slightly on July 22 compared to July 21. Price differences between different contracts and between different oil types also changed [32] - **Supply and Demand**: The upper pressure on oil prices came from macro - factors, while the lower support was from diesel fundamentals. Diesel inventory showed counter - seasonal drawdown [32] Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: Prices of caustic soda and PVC futures and spot products changed on July 21 compared to July 18, and the basis and price differences also had corresponding changes [36] - **Supply and Demand**: For caustic soda, the supply - demand contradiction was limited, and for PVC, it was in an off - season with increasing supply and decreasing demand [36][37] Urea Industry - **Prices**: Spot prices of urea in different regions increased slightly on July 21 compared to July 18. The basis and price differences also changed [40] - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production decreased slightly, and the plant - level inventory decreased, while the port inventory increased [41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The PVC market has seen a significant rise in the futures market due to the boost in macro - sentiment, but its fundamentals remain weak with high supply pressure, weak domestic demand, and increasing inventory. The policy's impact on the PVC capacity structure is expected to be limited [3]. - The caustic soda futures price has risen significantly due to the assessment of old petrochemical and chemical industry equipment and the weakening of liquid chlorine prices. However, the inventory pressure is expected to increase, and the policy's impact on the capacity structure may be limited [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5,118 yuan/ton (+181), the East China basis is - 118 yuan/ton (-31), and the South China basis is - 118 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5,000 yuan/ton (+150), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5,000 yuan/ton (+180) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 535 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton (+5), the calcium carbide profit is 112 yuan/ton (+5), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 315 yuan/ton (+130), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 595 yuan/ton (+26), and the PVC export profit is - 4.8 dollars/ton (+0.4) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory is 36.8 tons (-1.4), the social PVC inventory is 41.1 tons (+1.8), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 77.52% (+0.59%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 68.31% (-1.92%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 74.97% (-0.10%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.6 tons (+0.6) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,569 yuan/ton (+100), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 25 yuan/ton (-131) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton (-10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,370 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,603 yuan/ton (-31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 579.5 yuan/ton (-111.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 507.53 yuan/ton (+81.75), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,418.33 yuan/ton (+80.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 38.39 tons (+0.96), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.40 tons (+0.04), and the caustic soda operation rate is 82.60% (+2.20%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operation: The alumina operation rate is 83.61% (+0.33%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 58.89% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 84.55% (+6.75%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The release of the ten - key industry stable growth work plan has boosted the macro - sentiment, leading to a significant rise in the PVC futures market. However, the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The supply pressure is high, domestic demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. The policy's impact on the capacity structure is expected to be limited [3]. Caustic Soda - The assessment of old petrochemical and chemical industry equipment and the weakening of liquid chlorine prices have boosted the caustic soda futures price. The supply is increasing, the demand from the main downstream is rising, but the non - aluminum demand is weak. The inventory pressure is expected to increase, and the policy's impact on the capacity structure may be limited [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Neutral; in the short term, PVC may fluctuate strongly due to the boost in macro - sentiment. - Inter - delivery spread: Go for reverse arbitrage when the V09 - 01 spread is high [4]. Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Neutral; the cost support of caustic soda is strengthening due to the further weakening of liquid chlorine. The short - term futures market is trading on the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity, but the actual impact on the capacity structure may be limited [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided content 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - The table shows various data including percentages and numerical values, such as 82.6% with a +2.2% change, but the specific meaning of these data is not clear from the context [4] PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The section contains multiple charts related to the relationship between base price, 32 - alkali in Shandong (converted to 100%), and the main contract, as well as price trends and differences of different alkali products over time [8][9][14] PART THREE: Fundamental Data on Caustic Soda Supply and Demand - There are many charts presenting data on capacity utilization, device loss, inventory (including China's overall inventory, flake caustic soda inventory), regional production (North China, East China, Northwest China, etc.), ECU profits in different regions (Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, etc.), and the operating rates of downstream industries (epoxy chloropropane, epoxy propane, etc.) [29][31][34][36][70]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC trend strength is 1, indicating a "neutral" outlook [5] 2) Core Viewpoints - Short - term, domestic macro is affected by anti - involution, with overall commodity sentiment being strong, but PVC is in a range - bound market temporarily due to high - yield, high - inventory structure and external risks [1][2] - In the future, the market will continue to short the chlor - alkali profit as the high - yield and high - inventory situation of PVC is difficult to ease [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Content Fundamental Tracking - 09 contract futures price is 4937, East China spot price is 4840, basis is - 97, and 9 - 1 month spread is - 119 [1] Spot News - The domestic PVC spot market is in a weak and volatile state. Supply has steadily increased this week, it's the off - season for demand, and industry inventory has continued to grow. The spot price is under pressure, with the transaction price in East China for calcium carbide type five at 4800 - 4920 yuan/ton and ethylene type at 4850 - 5100 yuan/ton [1] Market Condition Analysis - Macro: The anti - involution sentiment is strong, especially in the petrochemical and chemical industries. But the impact on PVC may be limited as most PVC devices have continuous maintenance and upgrades [1][2] - Fundamentals: Northwest chlor - alkali integrated devices still have profits. In the second half of the year, there is insufficient drive for supply - side production cuts, and the high - yield and high - inventory structure is difficult to ease [1][2] - High - yield Structure: PVC maintenance volume is lower than in 2023, and the high - yield pattern continues. Chlor - alkali cost has declined, and the caustic soda demand in 2025 supports high profits. There will be about 110 million tons of new capacity put into production from July to August [1][2] - High - inventory Pressure: In 2025, the PVC export market faces greater competition. Exports are affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification, and the sustainability of exports is uncertain. Domestic demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is weak, and enterprises have low inventory - building willingness [2][4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - PVC: Cautious short-selling hedging [4] - Caustic soda: Neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The macro atmosphere for PVC has faded, and the market is mainly trading based on fundamentals. The supply is increasing due to restarted devices and new capacity, while demand is weak both domestically and externally, leading to continued inventory accumulation and potential compression of chlor-alkali comprehensive profits [3]. - For caustic soda, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has stabilized and rebounded, and the overall supply is expected to remain high. Demand lacks continuous support, and the inventory in factories is increasing. The chlor-alkali comprehensive profit still has room for compression, and the upward movement of the futures price is limited [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,955 yuan/ton (+21), with an East China basis of -105 yuan/ton (-21) and a South China basis of -115 yuan/ton (-21) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,850 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,840 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi-coke price was 535 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,825 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 107 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method production was -445 yuan/ton (+107), the gross profit of PVC ethylene method production was -621 yuan/ton (+74), and the PVC export profit was -5.7 US dollars/ton (+6.2) [1]. - Inventory and operation: PVC factory inventory was 38.2 tons (-0.5), PVC social inventory was 39.3 tons (+2.0), the PVC calcium carbide method operation rate was 77.52% (+0.59%), the PVC ethylene method operation rate was 68.31% (-1.92%), and the PVC operation rate was 74.97% (-0.10%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre-sales volume of production enterprises was 69.0 tons (+3.2) [1]. Market Analysis - Supply: Some devices have restarted, and the intensity of maintenance has weakened, with high production volume. The new production capacity of Bohua and Wanhua Fujian, totaling 900,000 tons, is expected to be put into production, increasing supply pressure [3]. - Demand: It is the off-season for domestic downstream demand, and the operation rate of downstream products is at a low level compared to the same period. Domestic demand remains weak, and export orders have declined month-on-month. The Indian BIS policy has been extended for 6 months, and the anti-dumping policy has not been implemented. If implemented, it may affect PVC exports [3]. - Inventory: PVC social inventory continues to accumulate [3]. Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,484 yuan/ton (+18), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 141 yuan/ton (-18) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda was 1,370 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single-product profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,634 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 690.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 425.78 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,368.33 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 38.39 tons (+0.96), flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.40 tons (+0.04), and the caustic soda operation rate was 82.60% (+2.20%) [2]. - Downstream operation: The alumina operation rate was 83.28% (+1.72%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China was 58.89% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 84.55% (+6.75%) [2]. Market Analysis - Supply: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has stabilized and rebounded, and upstream enterprises that previously reduced production due to high liquid chlorine subsidies have gradually increased their loads. The supply is expected to remain high, and there is still supply pressure with the expected new capacity in July - August [3]. - Demand: The price of alumina has increased, and the profit has been repaired, with an increase in operation rate but still lower than the same period. New production capacity is coming to an end, and non-aluminum demand remains weak, mainly for rigid consumption. Demand lacks continuous support, and the inventory in liquid caustic soda factories is increasing [3].

氯碱日报 | 2025-07-17 PVC回归基本面，盘面偏弱震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4934元/吨（-41）；华东基差-84元/吨（+31）;华南基差-94元/吨（-9）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4850元/吨（-10）；华南电石法报价4840元/吨（-50）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格535元/吨（+0）；电石价格2825元/吨（+0）；电石利润107元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-445元/吨（+107）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-621元/吨（+74）；PVC出口利润-12.0美元/吨（+0.4）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存38.2万吨（-0.5）；PVC社会库存39.3万吨（+2.0）；PVC电石法开工率76.93%（-3.80%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.23%（+4.77%）；PVC开工率75.07%（-1.43%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量69.0万吨（+3.2）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2466元/吨（-46）；山东32%液碱基差159元/吨（+46）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价840元/吨（+0）；山东50 ...

业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年7月17日 我就必 Z0019144 | PVC、烧碱现货&期货 | | --- | | 品种 | 7月16日 | 7月15日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山东32%液碱折百价 | 2625.0 | 2625.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | 山东50%液碱折百价 | 2740.0 | 2740.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | 华东电石法PVC市场价 | 4840.0 | 4850.0 | -10.0 | -0.2% | | | 华东乙烯法PVC市场价 | 5050.0 | 5050.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | SH2509 | 2466.0 | 2512.0 | -46.0 | -1.8% | | | SH2601 | 2451.0 | 2500.0 | -49.0 | -2.0% | | | SH基美 | 159.0 | 113.0 | 46.0 | 40.7% | 元/吨 | | SH2509-2601 | 15 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these factors [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The main contract of methanol fluctuates narrowly within the range. Import arrivals have increased significantly, and port inventories have accumulated rapidly. Some domestic enterprises may postpone autumn maintenance due to good profits. The domestic supply supports the market, and attention should be paid to macro and downstream device changes [2] Urea - The urea futures market is oscillating strongly. Supply remains sufficient, and agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season. Upstream inventories are shifting to downstream and ports. The market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations with the possible release of a new export quota [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures closed down slightly, showing a weak trend. For polyethylene, the reduction of device maintenance increases pressure, and downstream demand is weak. For polypropylene, high - level device maintenance provides some support, but weak demand still suppresses the market [4] Pure Benzene - Crude oil is oscillating. The spot price of pure benzene in East China has slightly declined, while the forward price has risen slightly. There is still supply pressure, with a seasonal improvement expected in the mid - to - late third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread and short at high prices based on the long - term bearish view of oil prices [6] Styrene - Styrene futures are weakly sorted. The开工 load is at a high level, and port inventories are accumulating. Market supply is sufficient, while downstream demand is mainly based on digesting existing raw materials, and spot trading is poor [7] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuate narrowly. PX supply - demand has improved, but weak PTA demand drags it down. PTA has an upward repair drive due to low processing margins. For ethylene glycol, short - term long - position allocation is recommended if large domestic devices implement maintenance. Short fiber shows some demand resilience and can be treated bullishly, while bottle chip orders are weakening [8] Chlor - alkali - PVC is running weakly. New device production increases supply, and downstream demand is weak, with inventory accumulation. Caustic soda is under pressure at a high level, with poor high - price sales and general non - aluminum downstream demand [9] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass fluctuates narrowly. Industry profits have slightly increased, but processing orders are weak. Soda ash is oscillating weakly, with inventory accumulation and high - level production. The photovoltaic industry's planned production cuts may affect the market [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The macro - atmosphere for PVC has faded, with the futures market undergoing a corrective adjustment. The supply side has increasing pressure due to new capacity coming online, while the demand side is weak both domestically and externally, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation and expected inventory accumulation. For烧碱, although the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has rebounded, the supply pressure remains high, and the demand side lacks obvious positive drivers, with limited room for continuous rebound [3]. Summary by Directory PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,975 yuan/ton (- 35), the East China basis was - 115 yuan/ton (+ 35), and the South China basis was - 85 yuan/ton (+ 15) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,860 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,890 yuan/ton (- 20) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 535 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price was 2,825 yuan/ton (- 25), the calcium carbide profit was 107 yuan/ton (- 25), the production gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC was - 445 yuan/ton (+ 107), the production gross profit of ethylene - based PVC was - 621 yuan/ton (+ 74), and the PVC export profit was - 12.3 US dollars/ton (+ 2.4) [1]. - Inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory was 38.2 tons (- 0.5), the social PVC inventory was 39.3 tons (+ 2.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate was 76.93% (- 3.80%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate was 70.23% (+ 4.77%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 75.07% (- 1.43%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 69.0 tons (+ 3.2) [1]. Market Analysis - The macro - atmosphere has subsided, and PVC futures are in a corrective adjustment, with the market trading mainly based on fundamentals. The supply side has increasing pressure as some devices restart, the maintenance intensity weakens, and new capacity is expected to be put into production. The demand side is in the off - season domestically, with low downstream operation rates, and the export signing volume has weakened. If the Indian anti - dumping policy is implemented, it may drag down PVC exports. As a result, PVC social inventory continues to accumulate [3]. Strategy - It is recommended to cautiously short - hedge PVC. Given the weak supply - demand fundamentals, expected inventory accumulation, and room for further compression of chlor - alkali comprehensive profits, the price is expected to face downward pressure after the macro - sentiment fades [4]. Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,512 yuan/ton (- 20), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 113 yuan/ton (+ 20) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,370 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,634 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 690.8 yuan/ton (+ 0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 445.78 yuan/ton (+ 35.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,368.33 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 37.43 tons (- 0.99), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.36 tons (+ 0.06), and the caustic soda operation rate was 80.40% (- 0.10%) [2]. - Downstream operation: The alumina operation rate was 83.28% (+ 1.72%), the dyeing operation rate in East China was 58.89% (- 1.36%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 77.80% (+ 2.63%) [2]. Market Analysis - The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has stabilized and rebounded, and the price of liquid caustic soda has remained stable. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has recovered, and upstream enterprises that previously reduced production due to high liquid chlorine subsidies have gradually increased their loads. The supply is expected to remain high, and there is still supply pressure with new capacity expected to be put into production from July to August. On the demand side, the alumina price has risen, and the operation rate has increased but is still low year - on - year. Non - aluminum demand is still weak, but the caustic soda export signing volume is good. Although the spot price in Shandong has increased and the factory inventory has decreased, there is a lack of obvious positive drivers in the supply - demand fundamentals, and the room for continuous rebound is limited [3]. Strategy - Maintain a neutral view on caustic soda. The rebound of liquid chlorine price suppresses the upward movement of caustic soda. The supply - demand fundamentals lack obvious positive drivers, and there is still room for compression of chlor - alkali comprehensive profits, with limited room for continuous rebound [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Cautiously recommend short - selling hedging [4] - Caustic soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The PVC market has a weak supply - demand fundamental, with expected continuous inventory accumulation and room for further compression of chlor - alkali comprehensive profit. The caustic soda market has limited continuous rebound space due to the lack of obvious positive drivers in the supply - demand fundamental, although the chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has rebounded [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures prices and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 5010 yuan/ton (+30), the East China basis was - 150 yuan/ton (-50), and the South China basis was - 100 yuan/ton (-50) [1] - Spot prices: The East China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4860 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4910 yuan/ton (-20) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 535 yuan/ton (-40), the calcium carbide price was 2850 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 132 yuan/ton (+32), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit was - 445 yuan/ton (+107), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit was - 621 yuan/ton (+74), and the PVC export profit was - 14.8 US dollars/ton (-0.7) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory was 38.2 tons (-0.5), the social PVC inventory was 39.3 tons (+2.0), the PVC calcium carbide method operating rate was 76.93% (-3.80%), the PVC ethylene method operating rate was 70.23% (+4.77%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 75.07% (-1.43%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 69.0 tons (+3.2) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures prices and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2532 yuan/ton (+36), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 93 yuan/ton (+27) [1] - Spot prices: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton (+20), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1370 yuan/ton (+40) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1634 yuan/ton (+63), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 690.8 yuan/ton (+262.5), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 410.78 yuan/ton (+52.50), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1368.33 yuan/ton (+44.80) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 37.43 tons (-0.99), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.36 tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda operating rate was 80.40% (-0.10%) [2] - Downstream caustic soda operation: The alumina operating rate was 83.28% (+1.72%), the dyeing operating rate in East China was 58.89% (-1.36%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate was 77.80% (+2.63%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The recent macro - environment has boosted the PVC futures price, but there is no obvious driver in the supply - demand fundamental. The supply pressure has increased due to the restart of some devices and the expected new production capacity in July. The demand is weak, with domestic demand in the off - season and weakening export orders. The cost support is weak, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [3] Caustic Soda - The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has rebounded significantly, the price of liquid caustic soda has increased, and the chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has recovered. The supply is expected to remain high, and there is still supply pressure. The demand has some positive signs but lacks obvious positive drivers, and the continuous rebound space may be limited [3] Strategy - PVC: Cautiously short - sell for hedging, and look bearish on rallies after the macro - sentiment fades [4] - Caustic soda: Adopt a neutral strategy, pay attention to the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine and the resumption progress of production capacity with reduced load [4]