关税战打了两周，虽有反复，但对抗的基调没有改变，所谓进口关税豁免，和关税暂缓实施，并不是缓和信号，懂王一天一个样，根本看不到关税战马上 会结束的样子。中国反制进口美国商品的关税能执行，肯定不是乱来的，也至少要做好维持一段时间的准备。 毕竟国际对抗不是过家家，在美国进口关税执行还不太顺利之际，这边中国的进口关税执行已经落地。 除了已经在国产替代风口上几年的芯片股，有更多的产业受此轮进口关税影响。农业这次受的影响也颇大，美国出口中国最多的是农产品。巨额关税后， 这一部分的进口量完全消失，成本上升在所难免，因此，国内作物将有一定量价齐升的机会，同时，大豆这类基础作物的价格上涨，将全面向下游包括 油、养殖行业蔓延。 因此，在关税过后的两周内，内需方向的股票都迎来一定炒作，农林牧渔行业罕见地实现了超额收益。 农林牧渔行业，不景气已有很长时间，股价低迷，行业也远没有到景气过热的阶段，进口关税带动的预期也是偏乐观的，大涨的背后，也不失为合理的回 归，那么，这个行业是否就此开启了新的向上周期呢？ 一、关税的影响路径 这次加全面关税，大家都很突然，短短时间内就从54%加到124%，虽说，农产品这种美国的优势产品，本身就已经有一 ...

Core Viewpoint - April is a critical month for the pig market, often signaling positive changes in market trends [2][6] Group 1: Seasonal Factors - The transition from cold to warm weather in April leads to increased consumer activity, contributing to a rise in demand for pork [3] - The May Day holiday further boosts market sentiment and consumption [3] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - April and May are peak months for secondary fattening, which, while not altering overall supply and demand, affects the supply rhythm and consequently influences pig prices [4][6] - The current market shows a significant price increase, with the average price of external three yuan pigs rising from 14 yuan/kg to 15 yuan/kg by the end of April [7] Group 3: Short-term Outlook - The short-term outlook for pig prices is stable with slight upward movement expected, but the increase will be limited [8] - Three main supporting factors for this stability include: 1. High enthusiasm for secondary fattening due to a shift in the industry towards shorter-term farming practices [9] 2. Increased consumption trends, particularly around holidays, leading to higher purchasing activity from slaughterhouses [12] 3. Rising costs due to increased feed prices, which has led to a stronger willingness among farmers to maintain prices [13] Group 4: Long-term Concerns - The long-term outlook remains concerning due to a persistent supply surplus and high production capacity, which could lead to market pressures if prices do not rise as expected [15] - The overall economic environment is expected to remain challenging, potentially impacting consumer demand for pork [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 21.42 [7][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 104.9 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net profit of RMB 9.2 billion, up 244% year-on-year. The Q1 2025 revenue was RMB 24.3 billion, an 11% increase year-on-year, while net profit was RMB 2 billion, marking a turnaround from losses [1][2][4]. - The strong Q1 performance was attributed to favorable pig prices during the off-season and a significant reduction in production costs. The company is expected to continue increasing output and reducing costs in 2025 [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company sold 8.59 million pigs, a 20% increase year-on-year, with an average selling price of RMB 15.2 per kg and a production cost of approximately RMB 12.9 per kg, resulting in a profit of RMB 283 per pig, compared to the industry average of RMB 93 [2][3]. - The company aims to sell between 33 to 35 million pigs in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9% to 16%, and plans to increase chicken sales by over 5% [3][4]. Cost Management - The company's total debt ratio has been decreasing quarterly, reaching 51% by Q1 2025. The company has also prioritized shareholder returns, with a total cash dividend of RMB 2.32 billion and share buybacks of RMB 660 million in 2024, accounting for 32% of the net profit [3][4]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been revised upwards by 17% and 29%, respectively. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 9.4 billion, RMB 9.4 billion, and RMB 19.4 billion, respectively [4][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.33 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2 billion yuan, up 261.9% year-on-year [1] - The average profit per head for pigs is estimated at 308 yuan, maintaining an industry-leading level due to a decrease in comprehensive breeding costs [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, totaling 1.32 billion yuan, with a combined cash dividend and share buyback amounting to 2.92 billion yuan for 2024 [2] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company had a revenue of 89.902 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 100.236 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.4% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 9.405 billion yuan in 2025, showing a slight increase of 1.9% compared to 2024 [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.41 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.0 times [3] Business Operations Summary - The company sold 8.174 million pigs in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, with an average selling price of 15.2 yuan/kg [1] - The chicken business saw a sales volume of 282 million birds in Q1 2025, up 5.4% year-on-year, but faced a loss of approximately 0.6 yuan per bird due to declining prices [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company demonstrates significant cost advantages in breeding, and its high dividend payouts reflect its investment value. The company reported a revenue of 104.92 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.23 billion yuan, up 244.46% [4][5] - The company is expected to navigate through the industry cycle successfully, with an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and the introduction of a profit forecast for 2027. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 11.98 billion yuan, 13.26 billion yuan, and 19.36 billion yuan, respectively [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company sold 30.18 million pigs, a 14.93% increase, with an average selling price of 16.71 yuan per kilogram, up 12.83% [5] - The total breeding cost for pigs in 2024 was 14.4 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 2.4 yuan compared to the previous year, and it further declined to 12.6-12.8 yuan per kilogram in Q1 2025 [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.32 billion yuan for 2024, which, along with share buybacks, totals 2.97 billion yuan, accounting for 32% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [6] Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 106.71 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.7%, and net profit is expected to be 11.98 billion yuan, reflecting a 29.8% increase [7] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 17.4% in 2024 to 19.3% in 2025, while the net margin is expected to rise from 8.8% to 11.2% in the same period [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.80 yuan in 2025, 1.99 yuan in 2026, and 2.91 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 9.4, 8.5, and 5.8 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.33 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2 billion yuan, up 261.9% year-on-year [1] - The average profit per head for pigs is estimated at 308 yuan, maintaining an industry-leading level due to decreasing costs [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, totaling 1.32 billion yuan, with a combined cash dividend and share buyback amounting to 2.92 billion yuan for 2024 [2] Financial Performance - The company sold 8.174 million pigs in Q1 2025, a 13.8% increase year-on-year, with an average weight of 123 kg and an average price of 15.2 yuan/kg [1] - The total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 100.236 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.4% [3] - The net profit for 2025 is expected to be 9.405 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [3] Cost and Profitability - The comprehensive cost of pig farming decreased to an estimated 12.7 yuan/kg in Q1 2025 [1] - The company sold 282 million chickens in Q1 2025, with an average price of 10.9 yuan/kg, leading to an estimated loss of 0.6 yuan per chicken due to costs [1] Future Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9.405 billion yuan, 5.823 billion yuan, and 9.699 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 1.9%, -38.1%, and 66.6% [2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates significant advantages in breeding costs and high dividends, highlighting its investment value. The 2024 revenue reached 104.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.68%, with a net profit of 9.23 billion yuan, up 244.46%. For Q1 2025, revenue was 24.33 billion yuan, an increase of 11.37%, and net profit was 2.00 billion yuan, up 261.92% [4][5] - The company is expected to navigate through the cycle and achieve profitability due to its leading cost control in the industry and the gradual recovery of domestic pig prices [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company sold 30.18 million pigs, a 14.93% increase, with an average selling price of 16.71 yuan per kilogram, up 12.83%. For Q1 2025, sales reached 8.59 million pigs, a 19.69% increase [5] - The total breeding cost for pigs in 2024 was 14.4 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 2.4 yuan compared to the previous year. In Q1 2025, the cost dropped to 12.6-12.8 yuan per kilogram [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.32 billion yuan for 2024, representing 32% of the net profit [6] Earnings Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11.98 billion yuan, 13.26 billion yuan, and 19.36 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.80 yuan, 1.99 yuan, and 2.91 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 9.4, 8.5, and 5.8 for the respective years [4][7]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Wens Foodstuff Group reported a net profit of 2.001 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year [1] - The company achieved an operating revenue of 24.318 billion yuan in the first quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.34% [1] - The primary reason for the profit increase is attributed to the profitability of the pork business [1]

事件 公司披露2024 年报，实现营收177.25 亿元，同比增长15.44%；归母净利润15.21亿元，大幅扭亏为盈。 拟向全体股东每10 股派发现金红利5 元（含税）。 25Q1 公司业绩亮眼，全年表现值得期待 公司披露2025 年一季报，实现营收40.86 亿元，同比增长11.60%；归母净利润2.06 亿元，同比增长 157.47%。 养殖行情回暖叠加成本改善，2024 年利润率提升明显2024 年公司养殖毛利率为15.92%（同比 +11.08pct），其中鸡业务毛利率14.56%（同比+7.84pct），猪业务毛利率23.46%（同比+33.37pct）。费 用方面，公司2024年销售/管理/研发/财务费用分别为2.20/7.90/1.40/0.84 亿元，同比分别 +12.67%/+16.52%/+75.46%/-8.93%。 2024 年鸡板块量增提升明显，猪板块显著改善公司2024 年鸡板块实现营收145.31 亿元（同比 +8.01%），肉鸡销量5.16 亿羽（同比+12.95%），2024 年公司养鸡板块生产成绩保持较强竞争力。公 司2024 年猪板块实现营收29.27 亿元（同比+76 ...

| 名称 | 最新点位 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3276.73 | -3 61(-0.11%) | | 深证指数 | 9781.65 | +22.6(0.23%) | | 创业板指 | 1913.97 | +5.19(0.27%) | | | 日期:4月18日 制图:21投资通 | | 周五外盘 纽约股市三大股指4月18日休市。欧洲三大股指4月18日休市。 | 名旅 | 报价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 纳斯达克 | | | | 标普500 | | | | 富时100 | | 休市 | | COMEX黄金 | | | | WTI原油 | | | | 美元指数 | 99.39 | -0.06% | | 美元离岸人民币 | 7.30 | -0.01% | | | 注:美元指数、汇率为最新价,数据截至北京时间6:30,其它为收盘价 制图:21投资通 | | 上周A股 过去一周（4月14日—18日），三大股指多数下跌。截至4月18日收盘，上证指数报3276.73点，周涨 1.19%；深成指报9781.65点，周跌0.54%；创业 ...