证券分析师： 程一胜 S0350521070001 chengys01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 王思言 S0350524010001 wangsy02@ghzq.com.cn 2025 年 08 月 22 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： [Table_Title] 业绩同比高增，养殖成本持续优化 ——牧原股份（002714）2025 年中报点评报告 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/08/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 牧原股份 | 6.1% | 27.3% | 31.9% | | 沪深 300 | 5.0% | 9.5% | 29.1% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/08/21 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 50.21 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | | | 35.02-51.76 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 274,285.68 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 191,329.93 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 546,277.00 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a steady growth in livestock output but faced a significant decline in net profit due to falling prices in the poultry market and inventory impairment losses [1][2]. Group 1: Poultry Business Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 8.353 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.02%, with Q2 revenue reaching 4.267 billion yuan, up 4.42% quarter-on-quarter and 2.98% year-on-year, primarily driven by stable livestock output [1]. - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 149 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 74.10%, with Q2 net profit at -57 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 127.79% and a year-on-year drop of 111.58%, mainly due to a significant drop in domestic poultry prices [1]. - The average selling price of yellow feathered chickens in H1 2025 decreased by 18.40% to 10.77 yuan/kg, while the complete cost of chicken production fell below 11 yuan/kg, leading to an estimated loss of 0.50 yuan/kg per chicken [1]. Group 2: Pork Business Performance - The company achieved a meat pig output of 949,600 heads in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 118.35%, supported by the gradual release of pig farm capacity and increased stocking [2]. - The average selling price of meat pigs in H1 2025 was 15.07 yuan/kg, down 5.29% year-on-year, while the complete cost of production decreased to 12.8 yuan/kg, resulting in a profit of nearly 300 yuan per head [2]. - The company’s pig farming capacity reached 2 million heads by the end of 2024, with expectations for continued rapid growth in pig output [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 104.92 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.23 billion yuan, up 244.46% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 24.33 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.37%, and a net profit of 2.00 billion yuan, reflecting a 261.92% increase year-on-year [2] - The company is a leading player in pig and chicken farming, with stable growth in output and high production performance. The sales volume of pigs reached 30.18 million heads in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.93%, while the sales volume of chickens was 1.208 billion, up 2.09% year-on-year [5][6] - The company has successfully controlled costs, with the comprehensive cost of pigs dropping from 7.2 yuan per jin in 2024 to 6.3-6.4 yuan per jin in Q1 2025, exceeding quarterly cost targets [5] - The company aims to sell between 33 to 35 million pigs in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9% to 16% [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 104.92 billion yuan, with a net profit of 9.23 billion yuan. The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 106.98 billion yuan, 116.62 billion yuan, and 124.44 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 9.27 billion yuan, 9.67 billion yuan, and 11.06 billion yuan [3][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 1.39 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.17 [3][6] Market Position - The company holds a 4.3% share of the national pig output, ranking second among listed companies. It also leads the market in chicken production with an 8.41% share [5] - The company has a strong asset-liability management strategy, with a debt ratio of 51.45% as of Q1 2025, down from 53.14% in 2024 [5] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its leadership in the pig and chicken farming sectors, with stable growth in output and production efficiency. The investment recommendation remains "Buy" based on the anticipated performance and market conditions [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, highlighting significant profit recovery in 2024 and continued growth in 2025 [2][3]. Core Insights - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry saw a substantial turnaround in 2024, with a total net profit of 39.648 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 694% [16][17]. - Key sub-sectors such as pig farming, poultry farming, and seed industry reported impressive profit growth rates of 321%, 261%, and 130% respectively in 2024 [2][16]. - The first quarter of 2025 continued to show strong performance, with a total net profit of 9.932 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 764% [20][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of 2024 and Q1 2025 Performance - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector achieved a net profit of 39.648 billion yuan in 2024, marking a significant recovery from losses in 2023 [16][17]. - In Q1 2025, the sector's net profit reached 9.932 billion yuan, continuing the positive trend from 2024 [20][21]. 2. Key Sub-Sector Performance 2.1 Pig Farming - The pig farming sector reported a total revenue of 387.9 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 30.7 billion yuan, driven by rising pig prices and reduced costs [23][28]. - In Q1 2025, the sector maintained profitability with a net profit of 7.62 billion yuan, despite a slight decline in pig prices [40][45]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The white-feathered chicken sector faced challenges with low demand and oversupply, resulting in a revenue of 31.69 billion yuan in 2024, while the yellow-feathered chicken sector saw a recovery in profitability [2][23]. - In Q1 2025, the poultry sector's net profit was 1.2 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to the previous year [2][20]. 2.3 Pet Food - The pet food industry experienced robust growth, with total revenue of 12.15 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.3% [2][3]. - In Q1 2025, the sector's revenue reached 3.09 billion yuan, continuing the upward trend [2][20]. 2.4 Feed Industry - The feed sector faced sales pressure but saw a recovery in gross margins, with total revenue of 156.62 billion yuan in 2024 [2][3]. - In Q1 2025, the feed industry reported a revenue of 35.63 billion yuan, indicating a positive growth trajectory [2][20]. 2.5 Animal Health - The animal health sector faced increased competition in 2024, leading to a decline in profitability, but showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025 with improved sales [2][4]. - The sector's revenue in 2024 was 16.472 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.162 billion yuan [2][4]. 2.6 Seed Industry - The seed industry reported a revenue of 14.86 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 370 million yuan, affected by declining grain prices [2][4]. - In Q1 2025, the sector continued to face challenges, with a revenue of 2.43 billion yuan and a significant drop in net profit [2][4]. 3. Investment Analysis - The report suggests focusing on leading pig farming companies for long-term value, as the sector is currently at a historical low valuation [3][5]. - The pet food sector is highlighted as a long-term growth opportunity, driven by increasing pet ownership and spending [3][6]. - The feed industry is expected to see demand recovery, supported by improved livestock numbers and stable raw material prices [3][4].