证券分析师： 程一胜 S0350521070001 chengys01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 王思言 S0350524010001 wangsy02@ghzq.com.cn 2025 年 08 月 22 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： [Table_Title] 业绩同比高增，养殖成本持续优化 ——牧原股份（002714）2025 年中报点评报告 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/08/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 牧原股份 | 6.1% | 27.3% | 31.9% | | 沪深 300 | 5.0% | 9.5% | 29.1% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/08/21 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 50.21 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | | | 35.02-51.76 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 274,285.68 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 191,329.93 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 546,277.00 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, highlighting significant profit recovery in 2024 and continued growth in 2025 [2][3]. Core Insights - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry saw a substantial turnaround in 2024, with a total net profit of 39.648 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 694% [16][17]. - Key sub-sectors such as pig farming, poultry farming, and seed industry reported impressive profit growth rates of 321%, 261%, and 130% respectively in 2024 [2][16]. - The first quarter of 2025 continued to show strong performance, with a total net profit of 9.932 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 764% [20][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of 2024 and Q1 2025 Performance - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector achieved a net profit of 39.648 billion yuan in 2024, marking a significant recovery from losses in 2023 [16][17]. - In Q1 2025, the sector's net profit reached 9.932 billion yuan, continuing the positive trend from 2024 [20][21]. 2. Key Sub-Sector Performance 2.1 Pig Farming - The pig farming sector reported a total revenue of 387.9 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 30.7 billion yuan, driven by rising pig prices and reduced costs [23][28]. - In Q1 2025, the sector maintained profitability with a net profit of 7.62 billion yuan, despite a slight decline in pig prices [40][45]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The white-feathered chicken sector faced challenges with low demand and oversupply, resulting in a revenue of 31.69 billion yuan in 2024, while the yellow-feathered chicken sector saw a recovery in profitability [2][23]. - In Q1 2025, the poultry sector's net profit was 1.2 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to the previous year [2][20]. 2.3 Pet Food - The pet food industry experienced robust growth, with total revenue of 12.15 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.3% [2][3]. - In Q1 2025, the sector's revenue reached 3.09 billion yuan, continuing the upward trend [2][20]. 2.4 Feed Industry - The feed sector faced sales pressure but saw a recovery in gross margins, with total revenue of 156.62 billion yuan in 2024 [2][3]. - In Q1 2025, the feed industry reported a revenue of 35.63 billion yuan, indicating a positive growth trajectory [2][20]. 2.5 Animal Health - The animal health sector faced increased competition in 2024, leading to a decline in profitability, but showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025 with improved sales [2][4]. - The sector's revenue in 2024 was 16.472 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.162 billion yuan [2][4]. 2.6 Seed Industry - The seed industry reported a revenue of 14.86 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 370 million yuan, affected by declining grain prices [2][4]. - In Q1 2025, the sector continued to face challenges, with a revenue of 2.43 billion yuan and a significant drop in net profit [2][4]. 3. Investment Analysis - The report suggests focusing on leading pig farming companies for long-term value, as the sector is currently at a historical low valuation [3][5]. - The pet food sector is highlighted as a long-term growth opportunity, driven by increasing pet ownership and spending [3][6]. - The feed industry is expected to see demand recovery, supported by improved livestock numbers and stable raw material prices [3][4].