在地缘政治持续紧张、产业政策与国家安全深度交织的背景下，外商投资审查正成为全球跨境交易 中最具不确定性的变量之一。 无论是美国CFIUS、欧盟外国补贴条例，还是各国不断扩容的国家安全审查框架，监管工具正在 从"例外手段"演变为"常态机制"。 杜宁表示，过去各国政府曾积极鼓励外资进入数据、基础设施、矿产、能源、先进技术等领域，但 如今，这些领域正因为国家安全因素而面临更为严格的审查。 杜宁指出，从全球范围看，外商直接投资（FDI）政策正在发生明显转向，不再仅仅聚焦市场准 入，而是更加关注投资在关键领域中能否带来"战略影响力"。这一趋势在美国、欧盟、英国等主要经济 体尤为明显，并在一定程度上也体现在亚洲部分司法辖区。 从制度层面看，审查范围正在不断扩大。英国正在讨论扩大《国家安全和投资法案》的覆盖领域， 欧盟层面也在评估将更多行业纳入审查框架。杜宁认为，数据、能源、关键材料、基础设施以及部分先 进技术，已成为当前审查重点，未来被纳入监管视野的行业类型仍可能继续增加。 在欧盟，《外国补贴监管条例》（FSR）已成为影响跨境交易的重要制度工具。杜宁指出，该制度 的目标在于维护公平竞争，通过防止欧盟以外国家的补贴形成不公 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around Trump's tariff policy, which initially aimed to address trade deficits but ultimately led to legal challenges and potential financial repercussions for the U.S. government [1][3][5] - The Supreme Court is set to review the legality of Trump's tariffs, with concerns raised about the use of emergency powers to impose tariffs that traditionally fall under Congressional authority [3][6] - The potential financial impact of the court's decision could result in the government needing to refund $13.35 billion to importers if Trump's actions are deemed unlawful [5] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is projected to slow down significantly, with the IMF forecasting a growth rate of 1.8% for 2025, indicating a potential recession due to policy uncertainties and trade tensions [14] - The actual income of American households has decreased by an average of $600, affecting lower-income families the most amid rising prices [15] - In contrast to U.S. protectionism, China is adopting a more open trade policy, reducing tariffs on 935 items starting January 1, 2026, and offering zero tariffs to 43 least developed countries [17][20] Group 3 - The reliance on Chinese supply chains remains significant, with many U.S. companies unable to fully decouple from China despite relocating assembly operations to other countries [8][9][11] - The anticipated effects of tariffs will become more pronounced in 2026, as the initial buffer from pre-emptive stockpiling will end, leading to increased costs for U.S. businesses and consumers [12] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff policies are seen as detrimental to the U.S. economy, contradicting Trump's initial goals of revitalizing American manufacturing and job creation [14][19] Group 4 - The global landscape is shifting towards regionalization rather than the end of globalization, highlighting the contrasting approaches of the U.S. and China in international trade [23]

Core Viewpoint - BYD's battery business is undervalued as investors primarily view the company as an electric vehicle manufacturer, despite its leadership in both sectors [1] Group 1: Valuation and Market Perception - Analysts indicate that BYD's valuation appears suppressed, overlooking the value and growth potential of its battery assets [1] - The value of BYD's battery business is nearly equivalent to the company's overall market capitalization, suggesting minimal market value assigned to its electronics, semiconductor, and other businesses [1] Group 2: Battery Production and Growth Forecast - BYD is the world's second-largest battery manufacturer, with a projected battery shipment of 286 GWh by 2025 [1] - The company's battery shipment is expected to grow by 35% this year, with internal demand increasing by 22% and external sales rising by 50% [1] Group 3: Analyst Rating and Target Price - Bernstein maintains a rating of outperform for BYD, setting a target price of HKD 130.00 [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the recent performance of Penghui Energy, with a stock price increase of 5.23% to 53.35 CNY per share, a trading volume of 740 million CNY, and a market capitalization of 26.853 billion CNY [1] - Penghui Energy, established on January 18, 2001, and listed on April 24, 2015, specializes in the research, production, and sales of lithium-ion batteries and primary batteries, with lithium-ion batteries accounting for 98.89% of its main business revenue [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major fund holdings, one fund under Rongtong Fund has a significant position in Penghui Energy, with 6,800 shares held, representing 1.75% of the fund's net value, making it the eighth-largest holding [2] - The Rongtong Cross-Border Growth Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund (001830) has a total scale of 15.8629 million CNY and has experienced a year-to-date loss of 1.31%, ranking 8677 out of 8838 in its category, while achieving a one-year return of 20.64%, ranking 5506 out of 8089 [2] - The fund manager, He Long, has a tenure of 10 years and 142 days, with a total asset scale of 2.511 billion CNY, achieving the best fund return of 128.31% during his tenure [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Haopeng Technology, forecasts significant growth in its 2025 annual performance, with expected revenue and net profit showing substantial increases compared to the previous year [2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - The projected operating revenue for 2025 is estimated to reach between 570 million and 600 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.58% to 17.45% from 510.845 million yuan [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 19.5 million and 22 million yuan, marking a dramatic increase of 113.69% to 141.09% from 9.125 million yuan [2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is anticipated to be between 18 million and 20.5 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 141.88% to 175.47% from 7.442 million yuan [2] - The basic earnings per share are projected to be between 2.38 yuan and 2.68 yuan, which is a doubling from the previous year's 1.16 yuan [2] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is committed to its "All in AI" strategy, focusing on AI hardware applications, which has led to increased market share and profitability through advanced research and reliable delivery [2] - Continuous optimization of cost management has improved operational efficiency and asset returns, supporting high-quality development and enhancing core competitiveness [3] - An employee stock ownership plan has been implemented for 2025, with associated share payment costs of approximately 32 million yuan, aimed at fostering long-term development and sustaining performance growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - Fulin Precision has announced a strategic partnership with CATL, involving a private placement of shares to strengthen collaboration in the new energy sector and optimize resource integration [2][4]. Group 1: Cooperation Background - Fulin Precision specializes in automotive engine components, new energy vehicle intelligent control, and lithium iron phosphate materials, establishing itself as a key supplier in the new energy vehicle sector [3]. - CATL has been the global leader in power battery usage for eight consecutive years, with a market share of 37.9% in 2024, and has a strong presence in the energy storage battery market with a 36.5% share [3]. - The partnership builds on an existing stable relationship, with Fulin Precision recognized as an excellent supplier by CATL for 2024 and 2025 [3]. Group 2: Transaction Details - Fulin Precision plans to issue 233,149,124 shares at a price of 13.62 yuan per share, raising a total of 3.175 billion yuan for various projects, including high-end energy storage lithium iron phosphate production [5]. - Following the issuance, CATL will hold 12% of Fulin Precision's shares and will have the right to nominate a non-independent director to the board [5]. Group 3: Strategic Cooperation Highlights - The strategic cooperation agreement outlines a five-year collaboration, with CATL committing to purchase at least 3 million tons of high-density lithium iron phosphate from Fulin Precision over the next three years [6]. - Both companies will share R&D resources and collaborate on new battery technologies, including solid-state and sodium-ion batteries [6]. - CATL will support Fulin Precision in securing stable supplies of lithium salt raw materials and assist in the development of precursor materials [6][7]. Group 4: Termination of Previous Restructuring - Fulin Precision has decided to terminate the planned capital increase and major asset restructuring of its subsidiary, Jiangxi Shenghua New Materials, to focus on a more integrated partnership at the listed company level [8]. - This strategic shift is expected to enhance the efficiency of both companies and accelerate the construction of high-density lithium iron phosphate production capacity [8].

Core Viewpoint - Northeast Securities initiates coverage on CATL (03750) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting strong performance in revenue and net profit growth before Q3 2025, driven by the expansion in the overseas market for power batteries and deep collaborations with major international automakers [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Growth - In Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 283.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.28%; net profit attributable to shareholders reached 49.03 billion yuan, up 36.20% year-on-year, primarily due to strong demand in the power battery and energy storage sectors and overseas market expansion [1] - The operating cash flow net amount for Q1-Q3 2025 was 80.66 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, indicating stable cash flow [1] Group 2: Power Battery Growth and Overseas Market Contribution - In H1 2025, the power battery business generated revenue of 131.57 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 16.80%, with the core growth driver being the overseas market [2] - The company achieved overseas revenue of 61.21 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.14%, benefiting from deep partnerships with major international automakers such as Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Stellantis [2] Group 3: Energy Storage Battery Profitability and Technological Advancements - In H1 2025, the energy storage battery business reported revenue of 28.4 billion yuan, a slight decline of 1.47% year-on-year, but the gross margin improved to 25.52%, an increase of 1.11 percentage points year-on-year, enhancing profitability [3] - The company continues to launch innovative products in the energy storage sector, including the mass production of a 587Ah large-capacity energy storage cell and the introduction of the world's first mass-producible 9MWh ultra-large-capacity energy storage system solution, significantly improving volume utilization and energy density [3] Group 4: Capacity Expansion Progress - The company is steadily advancing the construction of domestic bases, including the Zhongzhou, Jining, Fuding, and Liyang bases; internationally, it is progressing with the construction of the Hungary factory, a joint venture factory with Stellantis in Spain, and the battery supply chain project in Indonesia [4] - The Thüringen factory in Germany commenced production in 2024 and achieved profitability in H1 2025, while the first phase of the Hungary factory's production line equipment has entered debugging [4] - The company successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in H1 2025, raising 41 billion HKD, providing ample funding for overseas capacity expansion [4]

Core Viewpoint - Northeast Securities initiates coverage on CATL (300750) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting strong performance in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by growth in revenue and net profit, stable cash flow, and expansion in overseas markets [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Growth - In Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 283.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 49.03 billion yuan, up 36.20% year-on-year [1] - The robust performance is attributed to strong demand in the power battery and energy storage sectors, as well as expansion into overseas markets [1] - The operating cash flow net amount for Q1-Q3 2025 was 80.66 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, indicating stable cash flow [1] Group 2: Power Battery Growth and Overseas Market Contribution - In H1 2025, the power battery business generated revenue of 131.57 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 16.80%, with significant contributions from overseas markets [2] - The company’s deep partnerships with major international automakers such as Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Stellantis have led to an increase in market share in Europe [2] - The overseas revenue for H1 2025 reached 61.21 billion yuan, up 21.14% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Energy Storage Battery Profitability and Technological Advancements - In H1 2025, the energy storage battery business reported revenue of 28.4 billion yuan, a slight decline of 1.47% year-on-year, but with an improved gross margin of 25.52%, up 1.11 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company continues to launch innovative products in the energy storage sector, including the mass production of a 587Ah large-capacity energy storage cell, which has seen upgrades in key performance indicators [3] - The introduction of the world’s first mass-producible 9MWh ultra-large-capacity energy storage system solution, TENERStack, significantly enhances volume utilization and energy density compared to traditional systems [3] Group 4: Capacity Expansion and Overseas Projects - The company is making steady progress in domestic capacity construction with bases in Zhongzhou, Jining, Fuding, and Liyang [4] - Internationally, the company is advancing projects in Hungary, a joint venture factory with Stellantis in Spain, and an Indonesian battery supply chain project [4] - The Thuringia factory in Germany commenced production in 2024 and achieved profitability in H1 2025, while the first phase of the Hungarian factory project is in equipment debugging [4] - The successful listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange raised 41 billion HKD, providing ample funding for overseas capacity expansion [4]

[T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-14 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国 12 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.7%符合预期 美国 12 月 CPI 符合预期，缓解市场通胀担忧，周期板块相对跑 赢，指数高位震荡。 宏观策略（黄金） 美联储穆萨勒姆：通胀水平更接近 3%而非 2% 综 金价震荡收跌，鲍威尔被刑事诉讼以及地缘政治风险推动的上 涨势头缓解，美国 12 月核心 CPI 略低于预期，但美联储萨勒姆 的讲话表明短期降息意愿不高，金价回吐涨幅。 日度报告——综合晨报 美国 12 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.7%符合预期 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 A 股放量回调，止步 17 连阳 报 A 股市场放量调整，前期热门的商业航天概念普跌，但创新药概 念涨幅较大。近期股市热度较高，监管层面出手稳定市场，A 股 或有震荡，但中期上涨趋势仍在。 农产品（棉花） USDA1 月报告:美国及全球棉花期末库存下调 USDA1 月报告下调 25/26 美及全球期末库存，但报告调整幅度 不大，未改变美棉偏宽松、全球松平衡的供需格局，且市场更 关注需求及新作种植意向，报告利多影响有限。 有色金属（锌） 1 月 12 日【 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电池 容百科技（688005） 2025 年业绩预告点评：Q4 单季扭亏，钠电 正极放量在即 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 22,657 | 15,088 | 11,961 | 19,934 | 25,192 | | 同比（%） | (24.78) | (33.41) | (20.72) | 66.66 | 26.37 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 580.91 | 295.91 | (170.84) | 456.42 | 850.02 | | 同比（%） | (57.07) | (49.06) | (157.73) | 367.17 | 86.24 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.81 | 0.41 | (0.24) | 0.64 | 1.19 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 45.20 | 88.74 | (153.71) | 57.53 | ...