Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a significant collapse due to multiple factors, leading to a sharp decline in prices and a loss of investor confidence [1][3][5]. Market Performance - On July 29, the Shanghai Gold Exchange silver TD contract opened at 9168 yuan/kg and closed at 9181 yuan/kg, down 11 yuan from the previous day, marking a narrow trading range with a daily fluctuation of only 0.64%, the lowest of the month [1]. - The domestic and international price gap for silver widened to 120 yuan/kg, the highest premium in nearly a month, indicating that buying silver in Shanghai is nearly 4% more expensive than in New York [1]. - The silver sector saw a significant drop, with 90% of stocks in the sector declining, and the Tonghuashun silver concept index losing 1.36% in a single day [3]. Industry Impact - The global largest photovoltaic silver paste supplier, Heraeus, lowered its third-quarter shipment guidance, reducing capacity utilization from 85% to 70%, signaling a downturn in the photovoltaic industry [3]. - The domestic photovoltaic glass operating rate has fallen to 65%, with silver plating demand decreasing by 4.2%, leading to a reduction of 120 tons/month in industrial silver usage [3]. - The adoption of silver-coated copper technology in HJT cells has reduced silver consumption from 14 tons to 10 tons per GW, indicating a nearly 30% decrease in silver's role in the photovoltaic sector [3]. Investor Sentiment - The net asset value of the Guotou Ruijin silver futures ETF dropped by 1.54%, with a 3.2% reduction in scale, reflecting ongoing panic among retail investors [5]. - Speculative long positions in COMEX silver futures saw a significant reduction, with a decrease of 5200 contracts, indicating a loss of financial premium for silver [5]. External Factors - The strong rise of the US dollar index, which increased by 0.32% to 103.85, was exacerbated by a trade agreement announcement, leading to a market sell-off of safe-haven assets like silver [7]. - The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds surpassed 4.3%, creating a higher opportunity cost for holding silver, which has a volatility of 38% compared to the 5% of Treasury bonds [7]. Technical Indicators - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has signaled bearish trends, with the 5-day moving average crossing below the 10-day moving average, indicating a potential acceleration of selling pressure [8]. - Key support levels for domestic silver TD have shifted down to 9120 yuan, with a breach potentially triggering further selling from quantitative funds [8]. Options Market Activity - On July 29, the open interest for the "9200 yuan put option" surged by 30,000 contracts, indicating a strong bet on prices falling below 9000 yuan, further intensifying market pessimism [9].

Group 1 - The company, Hunan Silver (002716.SZ), announced its first share repurchase on July 30, 2025, through a centralized bidding method [1] - A total of 2,000,000 shares were repurchased, accounting for approximately 0.071% of the company's total share capital of 282,308.86 million shares [1] - The repurchase price was set at 4.65 yuan per share, with a total transaction amount of 9,300,000 yuan (excluding transaction fees) [1]

Group 1 - The gold market showed slight price increases, with Au99.95 closing at 769.37, up by 2.34 yuan or 0.31% [3][4] - Au100g opened at 772.00 and closed at 771.00, reflecting a minor increase of 0.55 yuan or 0.07% [3] - The trading volume for Au(T+D) was significant at 26,258, with a closing price of 769.48, up by 2.36 yuan or 0.31% [4] Group 2 - The NYAuTN06 contract opened at 775.30 and closed at 773.80, with an increase of 1.7 yuan or 0.22% [5] - The market for PGC30g showed a stable price, opening and closing at 770.00, with a slight increase of 2.9 yuan or 0.38% [5] - The overall trading activity in the gold market indicates a steady demand, with significant transaction volumes across various contracts [3][4][5]

据彭博社等美国媒体报道，特朗普回国途中在总统专机"空军一号"上接受随行媒体记者采访时发表上述言论，但同时表示，不确定施加关税等制裁是否会 对俄罗斯起作用。 特朗普还说，尚未收到俄罗斯方面对他设定期限的回复："我还没收到任何回复。真遗憾。" 另外，据央视新闻报道，特朗普称，他不担心制裁俄罗斯对石油市场或价格的潜在影响，并表示将提高国内石油产量以抵消任何影响。 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普29日称，他把俄罗斯与乌克兰达成和平协议的最后期限设定为10天，从当天开始计算。如果俄方没有就此取得进展，将面 临美国新的制裁。 当天，原油盘中一度大涨超4%。WTI原油期货收涨3.75%，报69.21美元/桶。布伦特原油期货收涨3.53%，报72.51美元/桶。 COMEX黄金期货收涨0.48%，报3383美元/盎司。COMEX白银期货收涨0.43%，报38.385美元/盎司。 此前一天（7月28日），特朗普在与英国首相斯塔默会晤前对在场记者表示，他对普京"十分失望"，将考虑缩短此前对俄罗斯设置的50天内达成俄乌和平 协议的期限。特朗普表示，他打算从当天起，设定一个新的最后期限，大约是10到12天。 特朗普说，他认为根本看不到 ...

据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普29日称，他把俄罗斯与乌克兰达成和平协议的最后期限设定为10天，从当天开始计算。如果俄方没有就此取得进展，将面 临美国新的制裁。 据彭博社等美国媒体报道，特朗普回国途中在总统专机"空军一号"上接受随行媒体记者采访时发表上述言论，但同时表示，不确定施加关税等制裁是否会 对俄罗斯起作用。 特朗普还说，尚未收到俄罗斯方面对他设定期限的回复："我还没收到任何回复。真遗憾。" 另外，据央视新闻报道，特朗普称，他不担心制裁俄罗斯对石油市场或价格的潜在影响，并表示将提高国内石油产量以抵消任何影响。 当天，原油盘中一度大涨超4%。WTI原油期货收涨3.75%，报69.21美元/桶。布伦特原油期货收涨3.53%，报72.51美元/桶。 COMEX黄金期货收涨0.48%，报3383美元/盎司。COMEX白银期货收涨0.43%，报38.385美元/盎司。 此前一天（7月28日），特朗普在与英国首相斯塔默会晤前对在场记者表示，他对普京"十分失望"，将考虑缩短此前对俄罗斯设置的50天内达成俄乌和平 协议的期限。特朗普表示，他打算从当天起，设定一个新的最后期限，大约是10到12天。 特朗普说，他认为根本看不到 ...

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 97.51, while spot silver opened at $38.04/oz and is currently around $38.28/oz. Silver T+D is trading at approximately 9181 CNY/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is around 9209 CNY/kg [1] - Last Friday, the US dollar index rose by 0.19% to close at 97.67, while spot silver fell by 2.26% to $38.14/oz. The decline in silver was attributed to progress in US-EU trade negotiations, which reduced safe-haven demand [1] Silver Market Data - The SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 22.61 tons to a total of 15,230.43 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - On July 25, the compensation fee payment direction for Ag (T+D) was in favor of longs [2] Trade Agreements and Tariffs - President Trump announced a trade agreement with the EU, which includes a 15% tariff, $600 billion in US investments, and zero tariffs from EU countries on US goods. However, there is ambiguity regarding whether the 15% tariff covers pharmaceuticals and steel/aluminum [3] - The US Commerce Secretary stated that the deadline for tariff increases on August 1 will not be extended, and a decision on chip tariffs will be made within two weeks [4] Silver Market Analysis - The silver market opened last week at $38.108, experienced a slight pullback to $38.061, and then surged to a weekly high of $39.523 before retreating. The weekly low was $37.923, and it closed at $38.163, forming a long upper shadow shooting star pattern, indicating potential bearish sentiment for the upcoming week [5] Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators to watch include the UK CBI retail sales balance at 18:00, the OPEC+ ministerial monitoring committee meeting at 20:00, and the US Dallas Fed business activity index at 22:30 [6]

Group 1 - In the first half of the year, precious metal prices experienced a strong upward trend followed by high-level fluctuations, influenced by macroeconomic policy changes [1] - The price of gold was re-evaluated as a core safe-haven and anti-inflation asset, recovering quickly after a brief decline due to the announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy in April [1] - The gold-silver ratio initially rose and then fell, peaking above 100 due to heightened inflation concerns and uncertainty in global economic prospects, before correcting as market sentiment improved [1] Group 2 - In the second half of the year, expectations of a weak U.S. economy and a clearer outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts, along with a declining dollar index, create a favorable macro environment for precious metal prices [2] - Gold is expected to benefit from ongoing uncertainties related to trade tensions, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical factors, which will enhance its safe-haven appeal [2] - Geopolitical risks remain elevated, with ongoing conflicts and instability in various regions, contributing to sustained demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 3 - In 2025, silver is projected to maintain a supply-demand gap of 4,000 tons, but high inventory levels may limit its commodity attributes [3] - The supply growth of silver is expected to slow to 2% year-on-year due to high base effects and reduced new silver mining projects, while industrial demand is forecasted to decline by approximately 1% [3] - The precious metals market is anticipated to have upward potential in the second half of 2025, with gold prices expected to range between $3,200 and $3,600 per ounce, while silver prices are projected to range between $32 and $38 per ounce [3]

Price Movements - The opening price for Au99.95 was 773.00, with a closing price of 772.62, reflecting a decrease of 2.37 yuan or 0.31% [2] - Au99.99 opened at 774.10 and closed at 774.21, showing a decrease of 1.13 yuan or 0.15% [2] - Au100g had an opening price of 770.02 and closed at 774.19, with a decrease of 2.34 yuan or 0.30% [2] - Au(T+D) opened at 772.50 and closed at 773.61, reflecting a decrease of 4.23 yuan or 0.54% [3] Trading Volume and Amount - The trading volume for Au99.95 was 14, with a transaction amount of 10,816,800 yuan [2] - Au99.99 had a trading volume of 5521.44 and a transaction amount of 4,269,150,016.8 yuan [2] - Au(T+D) recorded a trading volume of 29,664 and a transaction amount of 22,935,323,020 yuan [3] Market Performance - The weighted average price for Au99.95 was 772.62, while for Au99.99 it was 773.19 [2] - The weighted average price for Au(T+D) was 773.17, indicating a stable market performance [3] - The market holding for Au99.95 was not specified, while Au99.99 had a market holding of 4,269,150,016.8 yuan [2] Price Fluctuations - The highest price for Au99.95 reached 773.50, while the lowest was 772.30 [2] - Au99.99 saw a highest price of 775.00 and a lowest of 772.20 [2] - The highest price for Au(T+D) was 775.25, with a lowest price of 770.50 [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "positive," indicating a relative performance stronger than the market benchmark index by over 5% [33]. Core Insights - The global silver market has entered a new phase of structural supply-demand gap expansion, with signs of a rightward shift in the demand curve [1]. - Industrial demand is the primary component of silver demand, accounting for 58.5% of the total demand in 2024, with a total global silver demand projected at 36,207 tons [1][2]. - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for global silver demand from 2019 to 2024 is 3%, with industrial silver demand growing at a CAGR of 5.4% during the same period [2]. - The electronic and electrical sectors are the main drivers of industrial silver demand, with the photovoltaic industry being a significant contributor [3][5]. Summary by Sections Silver Demand Composition - In 2024, silver demand is composed of industrial demand (21,165 tons, 58.5%), jewelry (6,491 tons, 17.9%), and physical investment (5,939 tons, 16.4%) [1]. - The demand from the silverware and photography sectors is relatively minor, at 1,684 tons (4.7%) and 792 tons (2.2%) respectively [1]. Industrial Silver Demand Growth - From 2019 to 2024, industrial silver demand increased from 16,281 tons to 21,165 tons, contributing 98% to the total growth in silver demand during this period [2]. - The electronic and electrical sector's silver demand is projected to reach 14,323 tons in 2024, accounting for 67.7% of industrial silver demand [3]. Photovoltaic Industry Impact - The shift from P-type to N-type solar cells is expected to increase silver consumption in the photovoltaic sector, with N-type cells requiring significantly more silver per gigawatt [6]. - The projected silver consumption in the photovoltaic sector for 2025-2027 is expected to grow steadily, reaching 6,552 tons, 7,128 tons, and 7,500 tons respectively [6]. Automotive Sector Contribution - The growth of the new energy vehicle sector is anticipated to further drive silver demand, with projected consumption in the automotive sector reaching 2,566 tons, 2,799 tons, and 2,926 tons from 2025 to 2027 [7]. Overall Silver Demand Forecast - The global silver demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.9% from 2024 to 2027, reaching 39,457 tons by 2027, with industrial demand's share increasing from 58.5% to 59.7% [9]. - The supply-demand gap for silver is projected to widen, with supply growth expected to lag behind demand growth, leading to a tightening market [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report offers daily outlooks and trend intensities for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products, based on their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to move up in a volatile manner, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to break through and move up, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Positive sentiment supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: Likely to trade in a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Supply - demand contradictions are emerging, and the price is strengthening, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][18]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend intensity of -1 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to be slightly bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 0; Alumina sees capital inflows, with a trend intensity of 1; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: Macro sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits the upside, with a trend intensity of 0; Stainless - steel prices will oscillate due to the game between reality and macro factors, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Pay attention to lithium - mining industry policies, and it is expected to run strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply - demand de - stocking makes the market resilient, with a trend intensity of 0; Polysilicon has upward momentum due to sentiment, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it will be bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][42]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and prices will have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [2][46]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: The market trading atmosphere is strong, and prices will have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [2][51]. - **Coke**: After the first round of price hikes, it will be slightly bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 0; Coking coal will be slightly bullish, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][55]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, and the price will stabilize in a volatile manner, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][60]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental rally may be premature, and beware of sentiment reversal [2][5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Pay attention to the previous high - technical resistance level and guard against a pull - back after a rally [2][5]. - **Corn**: Continues to rebound [2][5]. - **Sugar**: Trades in a range [2][5]. - **Cotton**: Notice market sentiment changes [2][5]. - **Eggs**: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling decreases [2][5]. - **Hogs**: Wait for the end - of - month verification [2][5]. - **Peanuts**: Slightly bullish in a volatile way [2][5]. Others - **Log**: Trades with wide - range fluctuations [2][64].