文/兴利 一杯牛奶，承载着一个产业的崛起。 7月13日，第十六届中国奶业大会在厦门举行，大会发布的重磅报告显示，中国奶业用二十年左右的时 间，跨越了和奶业发达国家之间上百年的差距，蛋白质、脂肪、体细胞、菌落总数等核心指标的总体水 平优于欧盟标准，中国牛奶已经是世界级的品质。伊利原奶的菌落总数更是远优于欧盟标准，实现了划 时代的进步。 "从牛奶产品'喝不到'，到'有得喝'，再到'喝得好'；从消费端的'至暗时刻'，到'重获信任'，再到'国奶 自信'；从全球产业'落后者'，到'追赶者'，再到'领先者'，如今中国奶业站上了发展的新起点。"大会发 布的《世界奶业中国方案：高质量引领的奶业现代化答卷》（下称《报告》）如此指出。 大会现场发布权威报告 回望中国奶业的发展历程，堪称一部跌宕起伏的奋斗史诗。 大会上，中国农业科学院原党组书记、国家食物与营养咨询委员会主任、中国奶业协会战略发展委员会 名誉副主任陈萌山发布了《世界奶业中国方案：高质量引领的奶业现代化答卷》等四大课题研究报告。 他说，这份报告提出，中国奶业用20年左右的时间，产业素质显著提升，乳品质量安全水平总体达到奶 业发达国家水平，行业龙头企业发挥了示范引领作用 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese dairy industry has made significant advancements in scale, milk yield per cow, and raw milk quality, achieving a transformation from "catching up" to "keeping pace" and even "leading" within approximately twenty years, compared to the century-long industrialization process in developed countries [1][4]. Group 1: Dairy Production and Quality - China's milk production has stabilized among the top four globally, with a 32% increase in milk output from 2012 to 2024, reaching 40.79 million tons, while the number of dairy cows has remained relatively constant [4][5]. - The average milk yield per cow has risen from 5,500 kg/year in 2012 to 9,900 kg/year in 2024, indicating a substantial improvement in dairy farming efficiency [4][5]. - The quality of raw milk produced in China now meets EU standards for fat and protein content, with bacterial counts significantly lower than the EU limit, reflecting enhanced management and hygiene practices [1][12]. Group 2: Industry Transformation and Technological Advancements - The shift towards large-scale farming has increased the proportion of dairy farms with over 100 cows to 78%, marking a transition from small-scale to large-scale operations [5][7]. - The adoption of mechanization and digitalization in dairy farming has led to improved production efficiency and quality control, with 100% mechanization in large-scale farms [7][13]. - The integration of advanced technologies, such as automated monitoring systems and precision feeding, has further enhanced the quality of raw milk and overall farm management [13]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The domestic market for dairy products is projected to grow significantly, with retail sales expected to reach 151.6 billion yuan for liquid milk, 136.7 billion yuan for infant formula, and 99.9 billion yuan for yogurt by 2024 [14]. - Despite the positive trends, the industry faces challenges in demand stimulation and the need for continued support measures to enhance competitiveness and value addition [14]. - The Chinese dairy sector aims to establish a global presence with high-quality milk, positioning itself as a "Chinese model" in the international dairy market [14].

Advanced Manufacturing Group - In June 2024, China's power battery sales reached 94.1 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 7.6% and a year-on-year increase of 34.9% [3] - The export volume of power batteries was 15.8 GWh, showing a month-on-month growth of 17.1% and a year-on-year growth of 16.6% [3] - The installed capacity of power batteries in June was 58.2 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9% and a year-on-year increase of 35.9% [3] - Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries accounted for 81.5% of the total installed capacity, with a year-on-year growth of 49.7%, indicating a strong market position [3] - The significant growth rate of LFP batteries is attributed to their cost advantages and improved performance, making them the preferred choice for most mid-to-low range electric vehicles [3] Consumer Group - The National Health Commission approved D-Allulose and other new food ingredients, which could drive the development of low-sugar and low-calorie products in the sugar substitute market [7] - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasized the need to support the dairy industry, which is showing signs of stabilization and recovery due to various supportive measures [7] - Factors such as potential production decreases due to heat stress on dairy cows and increased consumption of cold drinks are expected to positively impact the dairy market in the upcoming months [7]

2025年下半年原奶行业的情况会好于上半年。 中国工程院院士、中国农业大学营养与健康研究院院长任发政表示，2024年国内乳制品总产量2962万 吨，同比减少1.86%，人均奶类消费量41.5公斤，同比减少5.6%。 经过三年多的调整，国内奶业的情况正在逐步好转。 一方面，国内奶价已经低于国际主要产奶国奶价水平。李胜利表示，2025年3月新西兰奶价约为3.2元/ 公斤，美国和欧洲分别为3.6元/公斤和4.2元/公斤。2025年5月20日大包奶粉拍卖价格为4332美元/吨，折 合人民币3.9元/公斤，持续上涨后都高于国内水平，对国内市场的冲击在减弱，这也有利于国内奶粉库 存消化。 另一方面，低奶价也加速了国内奶业产能调整。国家奶牛产业体系数据显示，2024年国内奶牛存栏数下 降了20万到30万头，扭转了连续5年增长的态势。同时，原奶产量全年为4079万吨，同比下降2.8%。预 计2025年，国内奶牛存栏会继续下降20万头左右。 国家奶牛体系走访发现，2024年4月份，国内龙头乳企每天平均喷粉生鲜乳约为2万吨，约占收奶量的 25%左右，2025年4月份这一数字下降至1.3万吨，好于上年同期。2025年5月中旬开始， ...

Core Viewpoint - The ninth "International Symposium on Dairy Cow Nutrition and Milk Quality" was held in Beijing, focusing on building a sustainable dairy industry and providing a platform for international exchange among dairy practitioners and experts [1][2] Group 1: Global Dairy Industry Trends - Global dairy product production has steadily increased over the past 20 years, reaching 968 million tons in 2023, with Asia contributing 46%, surpassing the EU as the largest region [1] - India has become the world's largest milk producer, with an annual production of 239 million tons [1] - Global per capita dairy consumption has also been on the rise, reaching 118.6 kilograms in 2023 [1] Group 2: China's Dairy Industry Achievements - China's dairy industry has made significant progress over the past 20 years, with milk production expected to reach 40.79 million tons in 2024 [2] - The quality of the dairy industry has improved significantly, with indicators such as milk yield per cow, mechanical milking, feeding practices, and fresh milk quality reaching international advanced levels [1][2] Group 3: Future Directions for Sustainable Development - The report emphasizes three areas of technological innovation for the sustainable development of the global and Chinese dairy industry: reducing costs and dependence on soybeans, ensuring quality and safety, and promoting the integration of agriculture and animal husbandry [2] - The Chinese dairy industry faces challenges such as resource constraints, environmental pressures, and market volatility, necessitating a focus on innovation, green development, quality assurance, and open cooperation for sustainable growth [2]

Core Insights - The "China Agricultural Outlook Report (2025-2034)" predicts a growth trend in dairy production and demand over the next decade, with a stabilization and potential increase in fresh milk prices [1][4] Group 1: Dairy Production - Dairy production is expected to maintain a growth trend, with an estimated production of 4,100 million tons by 2025, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous year, and reaching 5,703 million tons by 2034, with an average annual growth rate of 3.2% [3][4] - The number of dairy cows is projected to slightly decrease, with a total of 11.78 million cows and a dairy production of 4,163 million tons in 2024, reflecting a 2.8% decline from the previous year [1][2] Group 2: Dairy Consumption - Dairy consumption is anticipated to continue increasing, with a projected consumption of 5,506 million tons by 2025, a decrease of 3.3% from the previous year, and reaching 7,581 million tons by 2034, with an average annual growth rate of 2.7% [3][4] - Per capita dairy consumption is expected to rise from 40.7 kg in 2029 to 49.2 kg by 2034, indicating a long-term growth potential in consumer demand [3][4] Group 3: Dairy Imports - Dairy product imports are expected to stop declining and show a slight growth trend, with an estimated import volume of 1,452 million tons (equivalent to fresh milk) by 2025, a decrease of 8.5% from the previous year, and reaching 2,007 million tons by 2034 [4] - The import value of dairy products is projected to stabilize, with a long-term supply gap in the domestic market [4] Group 4: Pricing Trends - Fresh milk prices are expected to stabilize and potentially rise, with an average price range of 3.10 to 3.65 yuan per kilogram anticipated for 2025, following a period of low prices [4] - The ongoing optimization of dairy production capacity and reduction in dairy cow numbers may lead to a turning point in the oversupply situation by the second half of 2025 [4]

3月23日，中国发展高层论坛2025年年会在北京钓鱼台国宾馆举行。本次年会主题为"全面释放发展动能，共促全球经济稳定增长"，与会人士就提振消费与 扩大内需，以科技创新引领新质生产力发展，大健康产业高质量发展等十二个专题进行深入研讨，共话机遇和挑战。伊利集团高级执行总裁刘春喜受邀参 会，并在"大健康产业高质量发展"专题讨论会中，分享了伊利培育"奶业新质生产力"，引领中国奶业为"健康中国"筑牢根基的经验。 伊利集团高级执行总裁刘春喜在"大健康产业高质量发展"专题研讨会上发言 近年来，中国奶业加快培育"奶业新质生产力"，持续打造以牛奶为核心的健康产业链，推动大健康产业的高质量发展，为"健康中国"筑牢根基。作为行业领 军者，伊利集团以科技创新攻关奶业核心技术，以数智升级实现行业全链提质增效，加快形成"奶业新质生产力"，助力推进健康中国建设。 攻关奶业核心技术，为国民营养健康筑基 尽管我国奶业发展水平持续上升，市场规模稳步扩大，但是仍面临着许多关键原料技术被制约的情况。伊利引领行业，通过科技创新，陆续在"奶业精深加 工技术、乳基原料国产化"等奶业瓶颈与技术制约上实现突破。不仅促进行业发展，有的还实现对国外垄断技术的"反 ...

Core Insights - The development level of China's dairy industry has been continuously improving, but the deep processing industry is not fully established, particularly in the supply of key raw materials like whey protein and lactoferrin, which are still constrained by foreign technology [1][2] - A proposal was brought to the National People's Congress to promote the development of the dairy deep processing industry and accelerate industrial upgrades through technological innovation [1] Group 1: Technological Advancements - The lactoferrin extraction and preparation process has seen significant improvements, with the retention rate of lactoferrin in milk increasing from 10% to over 90%, drastically reducing costs from over 20,000 yuan per kilogram to around 5,000-6,000 yuan [1] - The team has achieved breakthroughs in the purification of β-casein and the preparation of whey protein, with the newly developed high-purity β-casein technology exceeding international standards by 20% in yield and achieving a purity of over 80% [2] Group 2: Future Plans and Industry Impact - The company plans to establish a production line for lactoferrin raw material powder at the Yili Modern Smart Health Valley cheese manufacturing base, aiming for industrial-scale production [2] - The focus will continue to be on deep processing research in the dairy industry, with an emphasis on the separation and preparation of high-value raw materials to drive the industry's high-quality development [2]