Hooper表示，投资者只需看看英国便会知道，由于对时任英国首相的经济政策缺乏信心，2022年英国国 债遭遇抛售。此后英国的借贷成本一直高于其他许多G7国家，这提醒人们"公职部门官员的信誉至关重 要"。她说:"如果一位被认为不够独立的人被选为美联储主席，并且专注于长期降低利率，我怀疑这个 人将不得不诉诸量化宽松，才能最大限度地实现这一目标。"Hooper又表示，虽然股票投资者通常投资 理由简单，例如宽松的货币政策，但债券投资者更关注财政可持续性和美联储独立性，"降低联邦基金 利率并不能保证长期利率会下降；事实上，它可能会产生相反的效果"。 美国总统特朗普此前称，将于明年初提名下任美联储主席，特别提到同场参与会议的白宫国家经济委员 会主任哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)为潜在人选。哈塞特普遍被认为是特朗普低利率政策的支持者。 来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇12月9日｜全球最大上市对冲基金公司英仕曼集团(Man Group)首席市场策略师Kristina Hooper在 领英(LinkedIn)表示，如果债券市场开始质疑下一任美联储主席的独立性，那么该央行可能不得不转向 量化宽松(QE)来降低长期借贷成本。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，全球最大上市对冲基金集团——英仕曼集团指出，如果债券市场开始质疑美联储下 任主席的独立性，美联储可能不得不诉诸量化宽松以压低长期借贷成本。 该集团首席市场策略师Kristina Hooper表示，投资者只需回顾2022年英国的前车之鉴——当时市场因对 时任首相特拉斯的经济政策失去信心，引发英国国债抛售潮。 Hooper在领英平台发文称，此后英国借贷成本一直高于多数七国集团经济体，这一事实印证了"政府官 员的公信力至关重要"。 她进一步分析道："如果最终当选美联储主席的人选被认为独立性不足，且其政策重心是压低长期利 率，那么此人恐怕不得不借助量化宽松，才最有可能实现这一政策目标。" Hooper强调，股票投资者的动机通常较为单一，宽松货币政策便是核心诉求;而债券投资者则更关注财 政可持续性与美联储的独立性。 她直言："下调联邦基金利率，并不意味着长期利率会随之走低;事实上，此举甚至可能产生相反效 果。" PGIM Fixed Income联席首席投资官Gregory Peters上周也指出，自哈西特被曝领跑美联储主席继任者之 争以来，美国国债收益率已应声走高。 兼任美国财政部借款咨询委员会委 ...

距离2025年结束仅剩16个交易日，标普500指数距离历史收盘纪录仅差30个基点，多重市场力量正在重 塑投资格局。本周三美联储议息会议成为焦点，市场共识已从"不太可能降息"转向"100%概率降息"，再 到预期"鹰派降息"。 根据高盛Prime Brokerage数据，对冲基金连续第七周净买入全球股票，其中做多买盘超过做空卖出的比 例为1.3比1。CTA策略基金已从净卖方转为买方，高盛模型显示本周买入90亿美元全球股票，整体敞口 升至1100亿美元。企业回购活动异常活跃，交易量较2024年同期日均水平高出80%。 板块轮动显著，资金从防御性板块流出转向周期性股票。公用事业跌4.83%，房地产投资信托基金下跌 2.58%，而周期性股票相对防御性股票上涨5.01%。量子计算概念股五日涨幅达14.61%，非盈利科技股 上涨9.61%。 CTA策略转向全面买入 高盛模型显示，CTA策略基金在各种市场情形下均将成为买方。未来一周内，平盘情形下预计买入298 亿美元，上涨情形下买入312亿美元，仅在下跌情形下卖出29亿美元。 | Expected Flows in Different Scenarios by Market ...

摘要今日周五(12月5日)亚盘时段，黄金t+d(上海黄金现货品种)当前报价951.78元/克，盘中正常交易。 较昨日收盘价下跌1.28元，跌幅0.13%；日内最高触及961.29元/克，最低下探至949.8元/克，今日开盘价 为955.03元/克。 今日周五(12月5日)亚盘时段，黄金t+d当前报价951.78元/克，盘中正常交易。较昨日收盘价下跌1.28 元，跌幅0.13%；日内最高触及961.29元/克，最低下探至949.8元/克，今日开盘价为955.03元/克。 【要闻速递】 资金流向分化显著，多空激战正酣：资金层面呈现主权资金与投机资金对峙格局。主权资金坚定增持， 为金价提供坚实支撑；而短线投机资金则在高位撤退，全球最大对冲基金桥水已清仓黄金持仓，黄金 ETF-SPDR亦出现1.71吨净减持。同时，伦敦金未平仓合约攀升至45万手，处于高位博弈状态。这种资 金结构的分化，使得黄金市场波动风险进一步加剧。 【最新黄金t+d行情解析】 黄金t+d当前围绕951.78元/克窄幅波动，较昨收跌0.13%，日内高低点分别为961.29元与949.8元，呈冲高 回落格局。日线暂守于950元心理关口之上，但未能延续反 ...

英国央行半年报警示，AI企业估值已达危险水平，并且与信贷市场深度绑定；同时对冲基金在国债回 购市场杠杆规模达1000亿英镑，引发对非银机构脆弱性的担忧。 英国央行周二表示，由于投资人工智能的公司估值过高、对大企业的高风险贷款以及政府债券市场的杠 杆押注，英国金融系统面临的风险在2025年有所上升。 这些在其半年期《金融稳定报告》中的评论，建立在英国央行行长贝利和其他政策制定者近几个月来发 出的警告之上，尽管该报告同时宣布了自2008年全球金融危机以来首次降低对英国银行的资本要求。 "2025年期间，金融稳定风险有所增加，"英国央行表示。"全球风险仍然很高，全球宏观经济前景存在 重大不确定性。主要风险来源包括地缘政治紧张局势、贸易和金融市场碎片化以及主权债务市场压 力。" 英国央行警示AI相关股票估值过高 英国央行估计，投资者对人工智能的热情已将美国股票估值推高至自互联网泡沫以来的最高水平，在英 国则达到自全球金融危机以来的最高点。 "人工智能公司与信贷市场之间的联系更加深入，以及这些公司之间的相互关联日益增强，意味着如果 发生资产价格调整，贷款损失可能会增加金融稳定风险，"英国央行表示。 该央行还注意到美国汽 ...

"如果英国率先实施最低保证金折减，我们担心一些专业交易员可能会据此推断英国政府债务的风险变 得更高。"另类投资管理协会负责市场、治理与创新的全球负责人亚当·雅各布斯-迪恩(Adam Jacobs- Dean)在致英国央行的一封信中表示。"这可能会削弱金边债券的投资吸引力、降低流动性，并不利于英 国政府的借款成本。" 英国央行代表们没有立即回应置评请求。其提议是英国央行最新一轮抑制金边债券交易风险的努力举 措，也是首次将回购市场作为具体管控目标。该行的"全系统探索性情景"(System Wide Exploratory Scenario)——对英国金融体系进行的压力测试，突出了一些"足以威胁金融稳定和实体经济"的风险，英 国央行负责金融稳定的副行长萨拉·布里登(Sarah Breeden)在5月的一次讲话中表示。 回购市场已经进入全球监管议程的前列，金融监管机构的官员们迫切希望控制非银行金融机构(NBFIs) 加配杠杆所带来的风险。在美国，自2027年年中起，大多数以美国国债作为抵押的回购协议将必须进行 中央化的集中清算。 对冲基金的观点之所以重要，是因为它们在全球金边债券市场的交易活动日益活跃。英国央行最新发 ...

Core Insights - Bridgewater Associates is navigating a fundamental shift in the global financial landscape, emphasizing three key themes: the rise of modern mercantilism, AI-driven disruptive change, and the concentration and competition of capital [1][6][20] Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy prioritizes survival over wealth accumulation, focusing on avoiding significant losses as a key to long-term compounding [1][27] - The concept of Pure Alpha is central to Bridgewater's strategy, advocating for a diversified and global investment portfolio rather than a concentrated investment in U.S. liquid stocks [1][29] Cultural Foundations - Bridgewater's success is attributed to two cultural pillars: the systematic and composite nature of knowledge, exemplified by the "Walled Garden" algorithmic expert system, and a culture of radical transparency that encourages seeking negative feedback [2][37] - The firm has established an independent AI department, Aya, to reshape processes around AI technology and generate excess returns for clients starting in 2024 [2][48] Macro Themes - The transition towards modern mercantilism is reshaping economic management, with implications for trade and investment strategies [6][8] - The ongoing technological revolution, particularly in AI, is expected to have significant impacts on capital allocation and market dynamics [10][21] - The concentration of capital in the U.S. and its implications for global investment strategies are critical considerations for investors [6][17] Inflation and Growth Outlook - Inflation is anticipated to be influenced by mercantilist policies and fiscal expansion, with tariffs and increased military spending contributing to inflationary pressures [20][21] - AI-driven growth is expected to exert deflationary effects, with a projected U.S. growth rate of 2% to 2.5%, largely driven by AI investments [23][21] Investment Strategy - The recommended investment approach involves constructing a more globalized and diversified portfolio to navigate the uncertain landscape, moving away from the past 15 years of concentrated U.S. stock investments [27][29] - European markets are viewed as increasingly investable due to shifts in fiscal policy and a focus on domestic economic resilience [31] AI Integration - The integration of AI into investment processes is seen as a transformative opportunity, with a focus on developing independent AI capabilities that can generate unique insights [48][49] - The approach to AI emphasizes collaboration between human intuition and machine learning, aiming to enhance decision-making processes [48][49]

格隆汇11月27日｜对冲基金在上周五和周一两个交易日均大幅净买入美国股票，创下六个多月以来最大 的两日净买入量，也是两年来最大的净买入量之一。 ...

Group 1 - Major stock index futures are showing positive trends, with Dow futures up 0.18%, S&P 500 futures up 0.21%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.26% [1] - Chinese concept stocks are mixed, with Alibaba up 1.07%, Pinduoduo up 1.05%, and JD.com up 1.16%, while Xpeng Motors is down 2.26% and Bilibili is down 1.81% [1] - Dell's Q3 revenue increased by 11% year-over-year to $27.005 billion, driven by a surge in AI server orders totaling $12.3 billion, with a backlog of $18.4 billion [1] Group 2 - Uber is launching a fully autonomous Robotaxi service in Abu Dhabi, expanding its partnership with WeRide, although some routes will still have safety drivers [2] - Bank of America predicts Nvidia's market share will decline from 85% to 75% by 2030, despite the AI data center market expected to grow fivefold to approximately $1.2 trillion [3] - Japanese chipmaker Rapidus plans to build a 1.4nm wafer fab by FY2027, aiming to catch up with TSMC [4] Group 3 - Elon Musk announced that Tesla's Robotaxi fleet in Austin will double next month, although specific operational numbers have not been disclosed [4] - Li Auto reported Q3 revenue of 27.4 billion yuan, a decline of 36.2% year-over-year, and expects Q4 revenue guidance to be below market estimates [4] - Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman is seeking to raise $5 billion for a new closed-end fund, with $2 billion from institutional investors [5]

Core Viewpoint - Bill Ackman plans to raise $5 billion for a newly established closed-end fund, with $2 billion from institutional investors as anchor investments, aiming to provide broader access to hedge fund ownership for various investor groups [1][2] Fund Details - The closed-end fund will launch alongside Pershing Square Capital Management's IPO, expected in early 2026 [1] - The fund aims to replicate Ackman's existing hedge fund strategies but with lower fees and easier access for investors, including pension funds and retail investors [1][2] - Investors in the new fund will receive free shares of Pershing Square as an additional incentive, with partners potentially selling up to 10% of their holdings [2] Historical Context - Ackman previously laid the groundwork for this fund in early 2024 but canceled the issuance plan in July 2024 after only raising about $2 billion, down from an initial target of $25 billion [2] - The innovative structure of offering parent company shares aims to address challenges faced by closed-end funds, which often trade below net asset value [2] Company Performance - Ackman sold 10% of Pershing Square in a private transaction, valuing the company at over $10 billion, and has since expanded its business portfolio [3] - The firm currently manages approximately $21 billion in assets, with a significant portion in the London-listed closed-end fund, Pershing Square Holdings, which has achieved a 17.2% return this year [3] Investment Strategy - Ackman plans to establish a hedge fund focused on "asymmetric trades," which involve limited initial investments with potentially high returns, a strategy that previously yielded significant success for Pershing Square [3] Public Presence - Ackman is also known for his active presence on social media, particularly on platform X, where he has around 1.8 million followers and shares views on various topics beyond finance [4]