Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company is a leading integrated online and offline real estate transaction service platform, with a strong foundation in real estate brokerage and a strategic focus on three wings of growth [6][11] - The company is expected to achieve a total transaction volume of CNY 3.3 trillion in 2024, with net revenue reaching CNY 934.6 billion, marking a historical high [6][20] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with a significant cash reserve and a share buyback plan in place [27] Summary by Sections 1. Leading Integrated Real Estate Transaction and Service Platform - The company began operations in 2001 and has expanded its services to include second-hand and new home transactions, home decoration, and rental services [11] - The total transaction volume is projected to reach CNY 3.3 trillion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [20] 2. Real Estate Brokerage: Strong Leadership and Operational Advantages - The company holds a dominant position in the real estate brokerage industry, with a total transaction volume of CNY 3.3 trillion in 2024, significantly ahead of competitors [48] - The company has established a unique competitive advantage through its "True Source" standard and ACN network, addressing industry pain points [51] 3. Three Wings Business: Home Decoration and Rental Services - The home decoration segment is rapidly growing, with a projected transaction volume of CNY 169 billion in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 329.7% from 2021 to 2024 [6] - The rental service has expanded significantly, with managed properties increasing from 70,000 in 2022 to 420,000 in 2024 [6] 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company forecasts EPS of CNY 1.58, CNY 1.83, and CNY 2.11 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28.7, 24.8, and 21.5 [7] - The report highlights the company's commitment to shareholder returns, with a cash dividend of USD 600 million in 2023 and USD 400 million in 2024 [27]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Beike-W (2423.HK), with a current stock price of HKD 49.55 [1]. Core Views - Beike is a leading integrated online and offline real estate transaction service platform, with a strong foundation in real estate brokerage and a strategic focus on three wings: home decoration, rental services, and Beihome [6][11]. - The company is expected to achieve a total transaction volume of CNY 3.3 trillion in 2024, with net revenue reaching CNY 934.6 billion, marking a historical high [6][21]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with a significant cash reserve and a share buyback plan in place [28]. Summary by Sections 1. Leading Integrated Real Estate Transaction and Service Platform - Beike began operations in 2001 and has expanded its services to include second-hand and new home transactions, home decoration, and rental services [11]. - The company has established a "one body, three wings" strategy, with a projected total transaction volume of CNY 3.3 trillion in 2024 [6][11]. 2. Real Estate Brokerage: Strong Leadership and Operational Advantages - Beike holds a dominant position in the real estate brokerage industry, with a total transaction volume of CNY 3.3 trillion in 2024, significantly ahead of competitors [51]. - The company has implemented the "True Source" standard and the ACN network, enhancing service quality and operational efficiency [54]. 3. Three Wings Business: Home Decoration, Rental, and Beihome Potential - The home decoration segment is rapidly growing, with a projected transaction volume of CNY 169 billion in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 329.7% from 2021 to 2024 [6]. - The rental business has expanded significantly, with managed properties increasing from 70,000 in 2022 to 420,000 in 2024 [6]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts EPS of CNY 1.58, CNY 1.83, and CNY 2.11 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28.7, 24.8, and 21.5 [7]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable commission rate in the new home market, while the second-hand home commission rate may face pressure [6].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "New Employment Group" service station in Guangzhou marks a significant step in providing support and community engagement for new employment groups, enhancing their sense of belonging and well-being [1][3]. Group 1: Service Station Launch - The "New Employment Group" service station, named "Yancheng Red Station," was inaugurated at the Guangzhou Lianjia Yahuju branch, officially activating 208 stores across the city to serve new employment groups [1][3]. - The initiative aims to provide daily care, participation in party-building activities, and community volunteer services for new employment groups, enhancing their sense of gain and belonging [1][3]. Group 2: Project Overview - The project is organized by various local government departments and is supported by Beike and Lianjia, aiming to create a social welfare brand for new employment groups [3][4]. - Beike plans to establish 1,500 to 2,000 service stations nationwide this year, covering major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Chengdu [3][4]. Group 3: Community Engagement - The service station provides comprehensive basic care, including facilities like sofas, bookshelves, microwaves, and emergency supplies, catering to the needs of new employment groups [8][12]. - It features a dedicated area for party-building activities, offering resources for community service and encouraging participation from new employment groups [12][13]. Group 4: Social Responsibility - Beike's initiative reflects its commitment to social responsibility, transforming commercial spaces into multifunctional areas that serve both business and community needs [3][4]. - The project aims to foster a harmonious community environment by encouraging new employment groups to engage in grassroots governance and community service activities [12][13].

Core Viewpoints - The company reported Q1 2025 earnings with revenue of 23.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42%, and Non-GAAP net profit of 1.39 billion, which remained stable year-on-year [1] - The company's GTV reached 843.7 billion, a 34% year-on-year increase, and revenue exceeded market expectations [1] - The decline in profit margin from existing housing business and the increase in fixed salary costs impacted overall profitability [1] Group 1: Existing Housing Performance - Existing housing GTV grew steadily by 28% year-on-year to 580.3 billion, but the overall monetization rate decreased due to a higher contribution from non-chain sources [2] - Revenue from existing housing increased by 20%, which was lower than the GTV growth rate [2] - The contribution profit margin for existing housing dropped by 6.4 percentage points year-on-year to 38% due to increased fixed salary costs and expansion efforts [2] Group 2: New Housing and Other Segments - New housing GTV grew significantly by 53% year-on-year to 232.2 billion, outperforming the market where overall sales declined by 2% [2] - The commission rate for new housing increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.5%, indicating developers' growing reliance on the company's channels [2] - The home decoration segment showed improved profitability, while rental income surged by 94% year-on-year to 5.1 billion, with a contribution profit margin of 6.7% [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a buy rating and adjusts the target price to 56.04 HKD, reflecting its strong market position and potential for growth during the real estate recovery cycle [3] - Adjustments were made to revenue growth rates and profit margins for various business segments, with Non-GAAP EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 updated to 2.06 and 2.68 respectively [3] - The target price corresponds to a 25 times PE ratio based on comparable companies [3]

Core Viewpoint - Beike (NYSE: BEKE, 02423.HK) reported strong financial performance for Q1 2025, driven by positive market conditions and strategic focus on AI applications [2][3]. Financial Performance - Total Gross Transaction Value (GTV) reached 843.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.0% [2]. - Net revenue was 23.3 billion yuan, up 42.4% year-on-year [2]. - Net profit stood at 855 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 98% [2]. - The revenue from existing home business grew by 20.0%, while new home business revenue surged by 64.2% [2]. - Non-real estate transaction services revenue increased by 46.2%, accounting for 35.9% of total net revenue [2][8]. Market Trends - The real estate market continued to benefit from policies implemented in September 2024, with new home GTV increasing by 53% [4]. - Existing home GTV reached 580.3 billion yuan, a 28.1% increase year-on-year [4]. - The overall supply-demand relationship in the market improved, contributing to increased transaction volumes [4]. Strategic Focus - The company plans to balance growth and efficiency, with a strong emphasis on AI investments [3][5]. - Management aims to enhance collaboration with developers and improve service efficiency through various tools and platforms [5][6]. - AI tools such as "Buding" for consumers and various assistants for agents are being deployed to improve matching efficiency and service quality [6][7]. Non-Real Estate Business Growth - Non-real estate transaction services saw a net revenue increase of 46.2%, with home decoration and furniture services performing well [8]. - Home decoration services generated 2.9 billion yuan in revenue, a 22.3% increase, with a profit margin of 32.6% [8]. - Rental service revenue reached 5.1 billion yuan, a remarkable growth of 93.8% year-on-year, supported by an increase in managed properties [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a stable revenue growth of 20.2% year-on-year for 2024, achieving total revenue of 93.46 billion yuan, while adjusted net profit decreased by 26.4% to 7.21 billion yuan [7] - The company's GTV (Gross Transaction Value) for 2024 reached 3.35 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, with revenue contributions from various business segments including existing homes, new homes, home decoration, rental housing, and emerging businesses [7] - The company is expected to benefit from structural adjustments in the market, particularly in the second-hand housing market, which is anticipated to recover first in 2025 [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 was 77.78 billion yuan, projected to grow to 93.46 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.16% [1] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 7.21 billion yuan, down from 9.80 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a decrease of 26.41% [1] - The company's EPS (Earnings Per Share) is expected to be 1.12 yuan in 2024, with projections of 1.82 yuan, 2.35 yuan, and 2.90 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] Business Segments - Revenue from existing homes reached 282 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year, while new homes generated 337 billion yuan, up 10.1% [7] - Home decoration business saw a significant growth of 36.1%, contributing 148 billion yuan, and rental housing business surged by 135% to 143 billion yuan [7] - The company expanded its active store count to 49,700, an increase of 18.3%, and the number of active agents reached 445,000, up 12.1% [7] Market Position - The company increased its market share in the new home sector by 1.7 percentage points to 11.4%, despite a 3.3% decline in GTV for new homes [7] - The commission rate for new homes improved by 0.4 percentage points to 3.47% [7] - The home decoration and rental businesses are expected to continue their rapid growth, with the number of managed rental units increasing from 210,000 to 430,000 [7] Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic brokerage industry, with potential for performance improvement driven by increased turnover rates in the second-hand housing market and enhanced penetration in new home brokerage [7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 9.70 billion yuan and 11.62 billion yuan respectively, with a 2027 forecast of 13.62 billion yuan [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 93.46 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.2%. However, the adjusted net profit decreased by 26.4% to 7.21 billion yuan [7][8] - The company's gross transaction value (GTV) reached 3.35 trillion yuan, showing a positive growth of 6.6% year-on-year, which supported stable revenue growth [7] - The report highlights a decline in gross margin by 3.3 percentage points to 24.6%, primarily due to a decrease in the revenue share from the higher-margin existing home business [7] - The company expanded its market share in the new home sector, with a GTV decline of 3.3% but an increase in market share by 1.7 percentage points to 11.4% [7] - The home decoration and rental businesses experienced significant growth, with the home decoration GTV increasing by 27.3% to 16.9 billion yuan and the rental business expanding its managed properties from 210,000 to 430,000 units [7] Financial Summary - The company's total revenue forecast for 2024 is 93.46 billion yuan, with projected revenues of 109.63 billion yuan in 2025 and 127.49 billion yuan in 2026 [1][8] - The adjusted net profit is expected to be 6.59 billion yuan in 2025 and 8.50 billion yuan in 2026, with a forecasted EPS of 1.82 yuan and 2.35 yuan respectively [1][8] - The report projects a decrease in the adjusted net profit for 2025 and 2026 due to market fluctuations, with revised estimates of 9.70 billion yuan and 11.62 billion yuan respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an initial recommendation [9]. Core Viewpoints - The company's brokerage business has a strong competitive moat that is difficult for competitors to surpass, with its direct brand, Lianjia, occupying a core market position. The company is expanding its market share through its platform, Beilian, particularly in lower-tier cities. The second-hand market is improving while the new housing market in lower-tier cities remains sluggish, providing a comfortable operational environment for the company. The second-hand business is expected to increase in volume, while the new housing business is expected to see price increases, leading to continuous performance enhancement and amplified profit elasticity due to operational leverage. Although the home decoration and rental businesses may not contribute significantly to profits in the short term, they are expected to provide substantial performance growth in the medium term. Given its competitive advantages, relative scarcity, potential performance elasticity, and the influx of incremental funds post-listing, the company is expected to enjoy a certain valuation premium in the short term. From a medium to long-term perspective, there is still room for improvement in brokerage business share, and home decoration and rental services can contribute to potential growth, making the company a strategic investment choice [2][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Beike is a leading integrated online and offline real estate transaction and service platform, dedicated to advancing the digitalization and intelligence of residential services. The platform offers a one-stop, high-quality, and efficient service that includes second-hand and new housing transactions, rentals, home decoration, and home services. In 2023, the company's Gross Transaction Value (GTV) reached 3.14 trillion yuan, with the proportion of second-hand and new housing brokerage business maintaining over 95% of the GTV [17][22]. Competitive Moat - The company has established a competitive moat through high and lengthy infrastructure construction, which is difficult for competitors to overcome. The ACN network breaks the traditional competitive dilemma, enabling a win-win cooperation model and expanding the scale economy from single stores to regional economies. The company has successfully occupied customer mindshare through its self-operated brand, Lianjia, and has achieved significant premium in customer acquisition and commission rates compared to industry averages [5][6]. Market Share and Profit Elasticity - The company’s market share in second-hand and new housing GTV was 28.6% and 9.7% respectively in 2023. The brokerage business is transitioning from scale victory to efficiency priority, with Lianjia promoting a large store model and continuously expanding through the Beilian platform. The overall operational leverage is expected to further amplify profit elasticity [6][8]. Business Expansion - The home decoration business has rapidly grown, with revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan in 2023. The company is shifting from blind expansion to focusing on regional density, digital systems, and supply chain construction. The rental business, "Shengxin Rent," has also expanded rapidly, contributing over 15% to rental income and is expected to maintain good growth [7][8]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 77.8 billion yuan in 2023, with the second-hand and new housing businesses accounting for 36% and 39% respectively. The home decoration business revenue reached 10.9 billion yuan, contributing 14% to total revenue. The company successfully turned a profit in 2023, achieving a net profit of 5.9 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit reaching 9.8 billion yuan [30][33]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue enjoying a valuation premium due to its competitive advantages and potential performance elasticity. The adjusted net profits for 2024-2026 are projected to be 8.11 billion, 8.91 billion, and 10.23 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 25.8, 23.4, and 20.4X [8][9].