Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a stable revenue growth of 20.2% year-on-year for 2024, achieving total revenue of 93.46 billion yuan, while adjusted net profit decreased by 26.4% to 7.21 billion yuan [7] - The company's GTV (Gross Transaction Value) for 2024 reached 3.35 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, with revenue contributions from various business segments including existing homes, new homes, home decoration, rental housing, and emerging businesses [7] - The company is expected to benefit from structural adjustments in the market, particularly in the second-hand housing market, which is anticipated to recover first in 2025 [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 was 77.78 billion yuan, projected to grow to 93.46 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.16% [1] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 7.21 billion yuan, down from 9.80 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a decrease of 26.41% [1] - The company's EPS (Earnings Per Share) is expected to be 1.12 yuan in 2024, with projections of 1.82 yuan, 2.35 yuan, and 2.90 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] Business Segments - Revenue from existing homes reached 282 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year, while new homes generated 337 billion yuan, up 10.1% [7] - Home decoration business saw a significant growth of 36.1%, contributing 148 billion yuan, and rental housing business surged by 135% to 143 billion yuan [7] - The company expanded its active store count to 49,700, an increase of 18.3%, and the number of active agents reached 445,000, up 12.1% [7] Market Position - The company increased its market share in the new home sector by 1.7 percentage points to 11.4%, despite a 3.3% decline in GTV for new homes [7] - The commission rate for new homes improved by 0.4 percentage points to 3.47% [7] - The home decoration and rental businesses are expected to continue their rapid growth, with the number of managed rental units increasing from 210,000 to 430,000 [7] Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic brokerage industry, with potential for performance improvement driven by increased turnover rates in the second-hand housing market and enhanced penetration in new home brokerage [7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 9.70 billion yuan and 11.62 billion yuan respectively, with a 2027 forecast of 13.62 billion yuan [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 93.46 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.2%. However, the adjusted net profit decreased by 26.4% to 7.21 billion yuan [7][8] - The company's gross transaction value (GTV) reached 3.35 trillion yuan, showing a positive growth of 6.6% year-on-year, which supported stable revenue growth [7] - The report highlights a decline in gross margin by 3.3 percentage points to 24.6%, primarily due to a decrease in the revenue share from the higher-margin existing home business [7] - The company expanded its market share in the new home sector, with a GTV decline of 3.3% but an increase in market share by 1.7 percentage points to 11.4% [7] - The home decoration and rental businesses experienced significant growth, with the home decoration GTV increasing by 27.3% to 16.9 billion yuan and the rental business expanding its managed properties from 210,000 to 430,000 units [7] Financial Summary - The company's total revenue forecast for 2024 is 93.46 billion yuan, with projected revenues of 109.63 billion yuan in 2025 and 127.49 billion yuan in 2026 [1][8] - The adjusted net profit is expected to be 6.59 billion yuan in 2025 and 8.50 billion yuan in 2026, with a forecasted EPS of 1.82 yuan and 2.35 yuan respectively [1][8] - The report projects a decrease in the adjusted net profit for 2025 and 2026 due to market fluctuations, with revised estimates of 9.70 billion yuan and 11.62 billion yuan respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an initial recommendation [9]. Core Viewpoints - The company's brokerage business has a strong competitive moat that is difficult for competitors to surpass, with its direct brand, Lianjia, occupying a core market position. The company is expanding its market share through its platform, Beilian, particularly in lower-tier cities. The second-hand market is improving while the new housing market in lower-tier cities remains sluggish, providing a comfortable operational environment for the company. The second-hand business is expected to increase in volume, while the new housing business is expected to see price increases, leading to continuous performance enhancement and amplified profit elasticity due to operational leverage. Although the home decoration and rental businesses may not contribute significantly to profits in the short term, they are expected to provide substantial performance growth in the medium term. Given its competitive advantages, relative scarcity, potential performance elasticity, and the influx of incremental funds post-listing, the company is expected to enjoy a certain valuation premium in the short term. From a medium to long-term perspective, there is still room for improvement in brokerage business share, and home decoration and rental services can contribute to potential growth, making the company a strategic investment choice [2][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Beike is a leading integrated online and offline real estate transaction and service platform, dedicated to advancing the digitalization and intelligence of residential services. The platform offers a one-stop, high-quality, and efficient service that includes second-hand and new housing transactions, rentals, home decoration, and home services. In 2023, the company's Gross Transaction Value (GTV) reached 3.14 trillion yuan, with the proportion of second-hand and new housing brokerage business maintaining over 95% of the GTV [17][22]. Competitive Moat - The company has established a competitive moat through high and lengthy infrastructure construction, which is difficult for competitors to overcome. The ACN network breaks the traditional competitive dilemma, enabling a win-win cooperation model and expanding the scale economy from single stores to regional economies. The company has successfully occupied customer mindshare through its self-operated brand, Lianjia, and has achieved significant premium in customer acquisition and commission rates compared to industry averages [5][6]. Market Share and Profit Elasticity - The company’s market share in second-hand and new housing GTV was 28.6% and 9.7% respectively in 2023. The brokerage business is transitioning from scale victory to efficiency priority, with Lianjia promoting a large store model and continuously expanding through the Beilian platform. The overall operational leverage is expected to further amplify profit elasticity [6][8]. Business Expansion - The home decoration business has rapidly grown, with revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan in 2023. The company is shifting from blind expansion to focusing on regional density, digital systems, and supply chain construction. The rental business, "Shengxin Rent," has also expanded rapidly, contributing over 15% to rental income and is expected to maintain good growth [7][8]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 77.8 billion yuan in 2023, with the second-hand and new housing businesses accounting for 36% and 39% respectively. The home decoration business revenue reached 10.9 billion yuan, contributing 14% to total revenue. The company successfully turned a profit in 2023, achieving a net profit of 5.9 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit reaching 9.8 billion yuan [30][33]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue enjoying a valuation premium due to its competitive advantages and potential performance elasticity. The adjusted net profits for 2024-2026 are projected to be 8.11 billion, 8.91 billion, and 10.23 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 25.8, 23.4, and 20.4X [8][9].