Market Overview - A-shares saw all three major indices turn positive, with over 4,200 stocks rising in the market [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.55%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.75% [1] - In the Hong Kong market, all three indices fell by over 1% [2] Sector Performance - The PEEK materials sector led the gains, with significant increases in stocks such as New Han New Materials and Hua Mi New Materials, both rising over 12% [9][10] - Real estate stocks experienced a surge, with companies like Quzhou Development and Xinda Real Estate hitting the daily limit [4][5] - The building materials sector also saw a rally, with International Composite Materials achieving a 20% limit up [6][7] - Non-ferrous metal stocks showed strong performance, with companies like Feili Hua and Nord Shares rising over 10% [12][13] Policy and Economic Indicators - Recent policy adjustments in Hainan and Beijing aim to optimize real estate regulations, which may boost market expectations and housing demand [8] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a decrease in housing prices across 70 major cities, indicating a narrowing year-on-year decline [8] Investment Opportunities - The rapid development of humanoid robots is expected to significantly increase the demand for PEEK materials, which are lightweight and high-strength, suitable for various applications [11] - The automotive industry's trend towards lightweight and electrification is projected to drive explosive growth for high-performance engineering plastics like PEEK by 2025 [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Domestic Market**: Policy support in the livelihood and consumption sectors boosts market confidence, but demand recovery is gradual. The release of July economic data is crucial, and if the data weakens, incremental policies may be introduced [2]. - **Overseas Market**: The Fed's policy stance is divided, with most officials leaning hawkish. The uncertainty of a September rate cut has increased due to the unexpected PPI data. The dollar index may oscillate around 98, and the USD/CNY exchange rate is likely to stay below 7.20 [2][4]. - **Equity Market**: The market sentiment has cooled, and the possibility of a further upward trend is low due to the受挫 Fed rate - cut expectations [6]. - **Commodity Market** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver may be bullish in the long - term but are in a short - term adjustment phase. It is advisable to buy on dips [12]. - **Base Metals**: Copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, and other base metals show different trends. Some are expected to be strong in the medium - term, while others are in a state of shock or decline [14][15][18]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices may oscillate weakly in the short - term, but the downside is limited. Iron ore prices are expected to be range - bound, and coal and coke prices may be affected by policies and demand [28][31][35]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical events, and the market is waiting for the US - Russia meeting. Other energy and chemical products such as LPG, PTA, and ethylene glycol have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends [39][44][50]. - **Agricultural Products**: For pigs, it is advisable to short on rallies. For oilseeds and oils, there are different investment strategies such as buying on dips for far - month contracts [72][74] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Attention should be paid to the release of July economic data. The US inflation is high, and the Fed's policy stance is divided, increasing the uncertainty of a September rate cut [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The short - term trend of the dollar index is uncertain, and the USD/CNY exchange rate is likely to stay below 7.20. Key data to watch include US retail sales [4]. - **Stock Index**: The market sentiment has cooled, and the possibility of a further upward trend is low due to the受挫 Fed rate - cut expectations. An insurance strategy of holding stocks and buying put options is recommended [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is dominated by sentiment. It is advisable not to short and to try to catch a rebound with a small position, while setting stop - losses for long positions [6]. - **Container Shipping**: The futures price is expected to oscillate, and may decline slightly in the medium - term if there are no sudden events [8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The market adjusted due to the unexpected PPI data. The long - term outlook is bullish, but short - term adjustment is expected. It is recommended to buy on dips [10][12]. - **Copper**: The price declined slightly due to the stock market and the stable dollar index. The medium - term trend is expected to be strong, and it is advisable to make low - level purchases [13][14]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term and may rise when entering the peak season. Alumina is expected to oscillate weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate [15]. - **Zinc**: The price declined due to the strengthening of the dollar index. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [16][18]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel decreased, and the upward momentum is limited. The fundamentals provide limited support [19]. - **Tin**: The price declined slightly, following the trend of the non - ferrous metal sector. It is recommended to hold cash and wait and see [20][21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and its downside is limited in the long - term. Polysilicon is affected by supply and demand and policy, and it is advisable to pay attention to industrial policies [22][23]. - **Lead**: The price is weak due to the dollar index and inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [24][26]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment has cooled, and the prices may oscillate weakly in the short - term, but the downside is limited [27][28]. - **Iron Ore**: The price declined due to the fall in coking coal prices. It is expected to oscillate, and the supply is neutral in the short - term [29][31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is affected by policies and demand. The medium - and long - term outlook is not pessimistic, but short - term risks should be noted [33][35]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: The prices follow the trend of coal. The short - term outlook is affected by market sentiment, and the long - term outlook is related to the real estate market and supply [36][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price rose slightly overnight. The market is waiting for the US - Russia meeting, and the upside is limited due to seasonal factors [39][40]. - **LPG**: The supply is loose, and the demand has a slight improvement. The overall situation remains loose [43][44]. - **PTA - PX**: The prices follow the cost trend. PX supply may increase, and PTA processing fees are at a low level. It is advisable to expand the PTA processing fee [45][47]. - **Ethylene Glycol - Bottle Chip**: The price of ethylene glycol oscillates, and it is recommended to buy on dips. The bottle chip price follows the cost trend, and the processing fee is range - bound [49][50]. - **Methanol**: The 09 contract is weak due to port inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to downstream resistance and port - inland price differences [51][52]. - **PP**: The supply and demand situation has little change. It mainly follows the macroscopic sentiment and coking coal price [54][55]. - **PE**: The supply and demand are increasing. The near - term supply - demand pressure is not large, but it depends on the demand recovery [56][57]. - **PVC**: It should be shorted. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [58][59]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil is weak, and the low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by crude oil and has a low - level supply and weak demand [60][61]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is stable, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and the price is weakly adjusted. The long - term demand may improve [63]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: The prices are volatile. Soda ash supply is high, glass demand and supply are in a weak balance, and caustic soda demand may improve in the peak season [64][67]. - **Paper Pulp**: The fundamentals have improved marginally. It is recommended to hold long positions and consider taking profits when the price breaks the 5 - day moving average [68]. - **Propylene**: The upward momentum of the spot and futures prices is weak. The supply is high, and the demand changes little [69][70]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The supply is high, and it is advisable to short on rallies and appropriately arrange reverse spreads [72]. - **Oilseeds**: It is recommended to buy far - month double - meal contracts on dips due to the expected supply gap [73][74]. - **Oils**: The far - month supply gap supports the strong operation of oils [75]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The central government's policies show care for the capital market, with a long - term bullish outlook for the stock market, but short - term volatility may intensify [3]. - In the bond market, interest rates are expected to decline in the long run, but may enter a short - term shock pattern [5]. - For precious metals, the Fed is expected to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, different metals have different trends, with some expected to be volatile and strong, and some facing downward risks [9][12]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices may weaken if demand cannot be effectively repaired, and the prices of related products are affected by supply, demand, and market sentiment [25]. - In the energy and chemical market, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, cost, and market sentiment, and different trading strategies are recommended [44][45]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided [56][57]. Summary by Category Macro - financial Stock Index - News: As of the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and the social financing scale from January to July was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. 188 billion yuan in special treasury bonds for equipment renewal investment subsidies has been allocated, driving over 1 trillion yuan in total investment [2]. - Basis ratio of stock index futures: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis ratios. The trading logic is to go long on dips in the long run, but short - term volatility may intensify [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose. As of the end of July, M2 was 329.94 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year - on - year, and M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan, up 5.6% year - on - year. The central bank conducted 1185 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Wednesday, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan [4]. - Strategy: Interest rates are expected to decline in the long run, but may enter a short - term shock pattern [5]. Precious Metals - Market: Shanghai gold rose 0.11%, and Shanghai silver rose 1.12%. COMEX gold fell 0.03%, and COMEX silver fell 0.10%. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.24%, and the US dollar index was 97.77 [6]. - Outlook: The US Treasury Secretary called for more aggressive interest rate cuts, and the Fed is expected to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy. It is recommended to buy on dips [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market: The US dollar index weakened, and copper prices rose and then fell. LME inventory increased, and domestic spot premiums were firm. - Price trend: Copper prices may be volatile and strong in the short term, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 78600 - 79800 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M in the range of 9650 - 9850 US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - Market: The domestic commodity atmosphere cooled, and aluminum prices fluctuated and corrected. LME inventory increased slightly, and domestic inventory decreased slightly. - Price trend: Aluminum prices may be volatile in the short term, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 20550 - 20800 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2580 - 2640 US dollars/ton [11]. Zinc - Market: Zinc prices fell slightly. Zinc ore was in a loose supply situation, and domestic zinc ingots were in excess. - Price trend: Zinc prices still face significant downward risks [12]. Lead - Market: Lead prices rose slightly. Lead ore port inventory increased, and the start - up rate of primary lead recovered. Downstream consumption pressure was high. - Price trend: Lead prices may be volatile and strong in the short term [15]. Nickel - Market: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices rose slightly, but the surplus pressure remained. - Price trend: Nickel prices may rebound slightly in the short term but face correction pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [16]. Tin - Market: Tin prices fluctuated. Supply was expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but short - term supply pressure remained. Demand was weak domestically but strong overseas due to AI computing power. - Price trend: Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton in the domestic market and 31000 - 34000 US dollars/ton in the LME market [17]. Carbonate Lithium - Market: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased. The market was affected by supply news and capital games. - Price trend: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders can seize entry points. The reference operating range of the 2511 contract is 82400 - 88880 yuan/ton [18][19]. Alumina - Market: Alumina prices fell. Ore supply disturbances continued, but the over - capacity pattern remained. - Strategy: It is recommended to short on rallies after the short - term bullish sentiment fades. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [20]. Stainless Steel - Market: Stainless steel prices fell slightly. Social inventory decreased, and market trading was inactive. - Price trend: The stainless steel market may continue to consolidate in the short term [21]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market: Cast aluminum alloy prices rose slightly. The downstream was in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. - Price trend: The upward space of prices is relatively limited [22]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices fell. Rebar showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and hot - rolled coil showed a pattern of decreasing supply and demand, with both inventories rising. - Price trend: If demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may fall [25]. Iron Ore - Market: Iron ore prices fell slightly. Overseas shipments and arrivals decreased, and iron water production decreased slightly. - Price trend: Iron ore prices are mainly affected by sentiment and fundamentals, and attention should be paid to changes in terminal demand [27]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Glass prices fell significantly. Inventory increased, and downstream demand was weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and follow macro - sentiment in the long term [28]. - Soda Ash: Soda ash prices fluctuated widely. Inventory increased, and downstream demand was difficult to improve quickly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and the price center may rise in the long term [29]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell slightly. The market is affected by "anti - involution" sentiment and fundamentals. - Strategy: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and hedging funds can seize opportunities [30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon prices fell. Supply is expected to increase, and demand can provide some support. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [35]. - Polysilicon: Polysilicon prices fell. Supply is expected to increase in August, and inventory is likely to accumulate. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [36]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - Market: NR and RU oscillated. The long and short sides have different views. - Strategy: It is recommended to have a neutral view and operate in and out quickly, and consider short - term spread trading [43]. Crude Oil - Market: Crude oil prices fell. US commercial crude oil inventory increased, and SPR inventory increased slightly. - Outlook: Oil prices are currently underestimated, and it is a good opportunity for left - side layout [44]. Methanol - Market: Methanol prices fell. Domestic start - up decreased, and port inventory increased. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [45]. Urea - Market: Urea prices fell. Domestic start - up decreased, and demand was weak. - Strategy: It is recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [46]. Styrene - Market: Styrene prices fell. The cost side provides support, and the port inventory decreased significantly. - Price trend: The BZN spread may repair, and prices may rise with the cost side after inventory reduction [47]. PVC - Market: PVC prices fell. Supply was strong, demand was weak, and inventory increased. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [49]. Ethylene Glycol - Market: Ethylene glycol prices fell. Supply decreased slightly, demand increased slightly, and port inventory increased. - Price trend: The short - term valuation may decline [50]. PTA - Market: PTA prices fell. Supply is expected to increase and inventory to accumulate, and demand is expected to improve after the off - season. - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long with PX on dips after the peak season [51]. p - Xylene - Market: PX prices fell. PX load remained high, and downstream PTA maintenance increased. - Price trend: PX is expected to continue to destock, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long with crude oil on dips after the peak season [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market: PE prices fell. Supply pressure is expected to increase in August, and demand is in the off - season. - Strategy: It is recommended to hold short positions [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market: PP prices rose. The cost side may dominate the market, and supply and demand are both weak in the off - season. - Price trend: PP prices may rise slightly with crude oil in July [54]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market: Pig prices rose slightly. Supply is not short, and there is room for future price increases. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on dips for medium - and long - term contracts and pay attention to spread trading opportunities for far - month contracts [56]. Eggs - Market: Egg prices were mostly stable. Supply was large, and the price performance in the peak season was weaker than expected. - Strategy: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market: US soybeans rose slightly, and rapeseed meal fell from the high. Domestic soybean meal spot basis decreased. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost range of soybean meal and pay attention to changes in Sino - US trade relations [60]. Oils and Fats - Market: Palm oil prices rose slightly, and rapeseed oil prices fluctuated. Malaysian palm oil exports increased in early August. - Strategy: Oils and fats prices are expected to oscillate, and the upward space is limited [62]. Sugar - Market: Sugar prices rebounded. Brazilian sugar exports increased in early August. - Price trend: International and domestic sugar supply is expected to increase, and Zhengzhou sugar prices may continue to fall [63]. Cotton - Market: Cotton prices rebounded. The USDA report was positive, and Sino - US tariffs were suspended. - Price trend: Cotton prices may continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [64].

Macro and Strategy - The government bond weekly report indicates that the "cleaning debt" special bonds disclosed exceed 100 billion [5][9] - As of the 32nd week (August 4-10), the cumulative net financing of government bonds reached 9.6 trillion, exceeding the same period last year by 4.9 trillion [8][9] Industry and Company - The energy storage industry has proposed an "anti-involution" initiative, focusing on improving profitability for energy storage companies [10] - China Unicom (600050.SH) reported a 5% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by strong momentum in computing power business [14][15] - Industrial Fulian (601138.SH) achieved a 51% year-on-year profit growth in Q2, with continuous increases in the shipment of the GB200 series [16][17] - Jiemai Technology (002859.SZ) is seeing batch imports of release films, with significant growth expected in composite current collectors [20][21] - Huahong Semiconductor (01347.HK) reported a gross margin exceeding guidance in Q2 2025, maintaining full capacity utilization [24] - Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH) saw a 9.2% year-on-year revenue increase in Q2 2025, adjusting its product structure according to market conditions [28][30] - Ganyuan Food (002991.SZ) faced a 55.2% year-on-year decline in net profit due to pressure on distribution channels and increased expense ratios [31][32] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on energy storage companies that may benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, highlighting firms like Sungrow Power, Sungrow, and CATL [10] - For the livestock industry, the report recommends companies like Yuran Livestock and Modern Animal Husbandry, anticipating a reversal in the cattle cycle in 2025 [13] - The report maintains a "better than market" rating for China Unicom, projecting net profits of 95/101/109 billion for 2025-2027 [16] - Industrial Fulian's investment outlook is positive, with an upward revision of profit expectations due to strong demand for AI infrastructure [19] - Jiemai Technology is expected to maintain a "better than market" rating, with projected net profits of 2.58/3.39/4.29 billion for 2025-2027 [23]

Core Viewpoint - The company is undergoing a strategic restructuring to optimize its resource allocation in line with national policies and directives from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) [1] Group 1: Company Actions - The company's controlling shareholder, Daye Nonferrous Metals Group Holding Co., Ltd., has signed a letter of intent with its subsidiary, China Fifteenth Metallurgical Construction Group Co., Ltd., to transfer 100% equity of its non-wholly owned subsidiary, Daye Nonferrous Design Research Institute Co., Ltd. [1] - The total asset value involved in the potential sale is approximately RMB 130 million as of July 31, 2025 [1] - The final price for the transaction will be determined through fair negotiations between the company and China Fifteenth Metallurgical [1] Group 2: Shareholding Structure - As of the announcement date, the controlling shareholder holds approximately 66.85% of the company's issued share capital [1] - China Nonferrous Mining Group, the parent company, holds about 57.99% of the shares in the controlling shareholder [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the report presents a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity sectors. Market trends are influenced by a combination of factors such as policy announcements, economic data releases, and geopolitical events. For instance, the extension of tariff exemptions in the Sino - US trade talks and inflation data in the US have had significant impacts on different futures markets [2][4][9]. - Different futures markets have their own specific outlooks. In the financial futures market, the stock index continues to rise, while the bond futures are under pressure. In the precious metals market, gold and silver prices stop falling and rebound due to inflation data and geopolitical factors. In the shipping market, the container shipping index shows a downward trend. In the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products also have their own supply - demand and price trends [2][6][10][12]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares showed an upward trend on August 12, with major indices rising. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased. The extension of tariff exemptions in the Sino - US trade talks and the release of relevant policies have affected the market. It is recommended to sell MO2509 put options at high prices and maintain a moderately bullish view [2][3][5]. - **Bond Futures**: Bond futures mostly declined, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally rose. The release of consumption - boosting policies has increased risk appetite and suppressed the bond market. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on financial data and new bond issuance pricing. A steeper yield curve strategy can be considered [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices stopped falling and rebounded. The US inflation data remained moderate, which increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The suspension of tariffs in the Sino - US trade talks also affected the market. It is recommended to build a bullish spread portfolio through gold call options and use silver put options to build a bullish spread strategy [8][9][10]. Container Shipping on the European Line - The container shipping index continued to decline. The global container capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in Europe and the US showed certain characteristics. It is expected that the market will be weakly volatile, and it is advisable to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [12][13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices strengthened slightly. The market expected an increased probability of interest - rate cuts in September due to inflation data, and the extension of tariff exemptions reduced short - term risks. The supply and demand were weak during the off - season, but the price had support. It is recommended to expect the main contract to fluctuate between 78000 - 80000 [15][17][18]. - **Alumina**: The market was concerned about supply due to news events. Although the current supply was expected to increase in the medium - term, the short - term price might fluctuate widely between 3000 - 3400. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - term [20][21]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices were in a high - level narrow - range shock. The supply was stable, but the demand was weak, and there were macro uncertainties. It is expected that the price will be under pressure in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 20000 - 21000 [22][23]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Terminal consumption was weak in the off - season, and the social inventory was close to full capacity. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, but the demand was suppressed. The price was expected to fluctuate widely between 19200 - 20200 [24][25][26]. - **Zinc**: The market priced in an increased probability of interest - rate cuts in September. The supply was loose, and the demand was weak, but the low inventory provided support. The price was expected to fluctuate between 22000 - 23000 [26][28][29]. - **Tin**: The price was affected by the expected interest - rate cuts. Supply and demand were both expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price may fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [30][31][32]. - **Nickel**: The disk maintained a relatively strong operation, but the medium - term supply was expected to be abundant. The price was expected to adjust within the range of 120000 - 126000 [32][33][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The disk oscillated strongly, but the demand was still a drag. The cost support was strengthened, but the fundamental demand was weak. The price was expected to oscillate strongly between 13000 - 13500 [35][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price fluctuated greatly due to news. The current supply and demand were in a tight balance. The price was expected to fluctuate widely in a relatively strong range between 80000 - 90000, and attention could be paid to the positive spread opportunity between near and far months [39][41][42]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices were supported as the steel mill inventory did not increase significantly. The cost increased, and the profit improved. The supply was expected to increase in the third quarter, and the demand was stable. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about chasing high prices [43][44][45]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price followed the steel price. The global shipment decreased, the demand was stable, and the port inventory increased slightly. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices and consider arbitrage strategies [46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures rose strongly. The supply was tight, the demand was stable, and the inventory was at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices and consider arbitrage strategies [48][49][50]. - **Coke**: The coke futures rose, and the sixth - round price increase was launched. The supply was difficult to increase, the demand was supported, and the inventory was at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices and consider arbitrage strategies [51][52][53]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The price of rapeseed meal increased due to the anti - dumping decision on Canadian rapeseed, and the price of soybean meal was affected by the USDA report. It is recommended to hold the 01 long positions [54][55][56]. - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs oscillated weakly. The supply and demand were both weak in the short - term, and the 01 contract was affected by policies. It is not recommended to short blindly [57][58]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn weakened, and the disk oscillated at a low level. The supply pressure was still significant in the medium - and long - term, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [59][60].

1. Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US CPI data in July generally support the Fed's rate cut in September, but the slightly higher-than-expected core inflation fails to strengthen the market's rate cut expectations and limits the subsequent rate cut space [2][14]. - The A-share market is strong, and the two loan discount policies announced yesterday may have a positive impact on reducing the debt costs of enterprises and residents and stimulating purchasing power [3][17]. - In the second half of August, factors unfavorable to the bond market are increasing, and the bond market is expected to be slightly weaker in a volatile manner. However, due to the lack of obvious improvement in the fundamentals, it is hard to say that the bond market will turn bearish trend - wise. The upward - trending interest rates in the second half of August will bring allocation opportunities [4][23]. - Steel prices are running strongly, mainly driven by the strong expectation of environmental protection production restrictions. However, since the terminal demand has not changed much, risks should be watched out for [5][43]. - Due to supply - side risks such as production line maintenance and mine shutdowns, the prices of lithium carbonate and other products are expected to be strong in the short term [6][58]. - Oil prices are oscillating weakly, and both EIA and OPEC slightly raise the market demand forecast for next year [7][60]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US July unadjusted CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, and the gold price oscillated slightly lower. The CPI data support the Fed's rate cut in September, but the core inflation limits the rate cut space. Short - term gold remains in a volatile pattern [14][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Two loan discount policies are introduced, and China and the US agree to continue suspending the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs. The A - share market is approaching the previous high of 3674. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [16][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials have different views on monetary policy. The US July CPI is slightly lower than expected, but the core CPI exceeds expectations, increasing the probability of a rate cut in September. The US stock market is expected to remain strong, but inflation risks exist [19][20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Three departments issue the implementation plan for the fiscal discount policy on personal consumption loans. The bond market is under pressure, and it is recommended that trading desks be cautious when betting on rebounds [22][23][25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - USDA unexpectedly lowers the US soybean ending inventory. The report is beneficial to soybean meal, and it is expected that the soybean meal futures price will remain strong before China resumes purchasing US soybeans [26][27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The expected ending inventory of US soybeans in 2025/2026 is lower than expected, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed is initiated. It is recommended to take long positions in the domestic oil market or adopt the strategy of going long on rapeseed oil and short on soybean oil in the 01 contract [28][30][31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The cotton textile industry PMI in July drops significantly, and the new order index reaches a low level. The growth progress of US cotton is slow, and the ICE cotton price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate [32][34][35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch is weak. The terminal demand is weak, and the rice - flour price difference has no driving force to strengthen [36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - The cost of hog farming is under control. It is recommended to pay continuous attention to the opportunity of reverse spreads [37][38]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The import corn auction turnover rate is low, and the corn price is weak. It is recommended to avoid the 09 contract and hold short positions in the 11 and 01 contracts [39][40]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The sales of key real - estate enterprises decline, and the steel price is strong due to the expectation of environmental protection production restrictions. However, risks should be watched out for as the terminal demand is stable [41][43][44]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Shanxi Province adjusts the mining rights policy. The current supply - demand of alumina is in surplus, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46][47]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Some refineries have maintenance plans in August. It is recommended to hold long positions established at low levels and pay attention to the opportunity of internal - external positive spreads [48][49]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - LME zinc inventory decreases slightly, while domestic social inventory increases significantly. It is recommended to manage positions for unilateral positions, pay attention to medium - term positive spreads, and wait and see for internal - external spreads [50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The future demand for nickel ore in Indonesia is expected to increase. In the short term, it is recommended to pay attention to band - trading opportunities, and in the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [52][53][54]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - There are supply - side risks such as mine shutdowns. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and positive spreads between months [58]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's oil production increases in July, and oil prices are weakly volatile. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term [59][60][61]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is oscillating narrowly, and it is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [62][63][64]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The spot price of caustic soda is gradually weakening, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [65]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price trends of different pulp varieties are differentiated. The pulp futures price may rise, but the upward space is limited [66]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC market price rises, but the fundamentals are weak. The market is expected to oscillate [67]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price is weak, and the market structure changes. It is expected to adjust in a volatile manner in the short term [68][69]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chips is stable, and the industry is in a state of production reduction. The absolute price follows the fluctuation of polyester raw materials [70][72]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The urea market is volatile. The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price may be under pressure, but the downward space is limited [73][74]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA futures is strongly oscillating, and the demand side is weak. It is expected to adjust in a volatile manner in the short term [75][77]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The price of pure benzene is expected to be strong, and the production of styrene is high. It is recommended to treat it in a volatile manner and pay attention to cost - side changes [78][79]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Due to the investigation of an official in Qinghai, the market is worried about supply - side disturbances. It is recommended to manage positions [80][81][82]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The glass futures price decline narrows, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to operate with caution on the single - side and focus on arbitrage operations [83].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Consumer spending shows improvement in automotive and service sectors, while textile and apparel remain weak due to seasonal factors[6] - CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month in July, with core CPI rising to 0.8%, the highest since March 2024[10] - The overall PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, indicating persistent downward pressure on industrial prices[12] Group 2: Market Trends and Strategies - A-share and U.S. stock markets are recommended for tactical overweight due to improving risk appetite and stable liquidity[15] - The strategic asset allocation (SAA) proposal suggests a 45% allocation to equities, 45% to bonds, and 10% to commodities, with an expected annualized return of 9.1%[15] - The tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy anticipates a 55% equity weight, 40% bond weight, and 5% commodity weight, with a projected annualized return of 55%[17] Group 3: Sector-Specific Developments - The Hong Kong IPO market is projected to raise approximately HKD 1,300-1,500 billion this year, with a significant portion from A-share companies listing in Hong Kong[18] - The household service robot market is expected to grow significantly, with various companies showcasing products at the 2025 World Robot Conference[40] - The mini-LED television market is anticipated to reach a 25% penetration rate in China by 2025, with Haier's market share at 29.3% in Q1 2025[41]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent dovish stance has created an environment where gold prices are likely to rise and are difficult to decline [1] - The potential imposition of tariffs on gold bars led to a significant increase in COMEX gold prices, although subsequent clarification from the White House negated this impact [2] - The combination of weakening employment data, dovish Fed policies, and anticipated inflation is expected to support an upward trend in gold prices [2] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - Previous market concerns regarding copper included the reversal of logistics post-tariff, weakening demand due to the end of solar panel installations, and strong economic data suppressing rate cut expectations [3] - These concerns are gradually being disproven, as U.S. copper prices remain stable and inventory levels have not significantly increased [3] - The upcoming September is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics, with potential downward pressure on copper production due to maintenance and a return to peak demand [3]

Group 1 - The domestic economy shows positive changes as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month in July, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, while year-on-year it remained flat [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing decline of 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, indicating an improvement in market supply and demand relationships [1] - The expansion of domestic demand policies is having a noticeable effect, leading to marginal improvements in price movements [1] Group 2 - The core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year in July, marking the highest level since March 2024, reflecting enhanced market vitality and smoother economic circulation [3] - Service prices significantly contributed to the CPI increase, with airfares, tourism, hotel accommodations, and transportation rental fees rising by 17.9%, 9.1%, 6.9%, and 4.4% respectively, collectively accounting for over 60% of the CPI's month-on-month increase [3] - Industrial consumer goods prices also showed positive trends, with a 0.2% month-on-month increase excluding energy, driven by demand recovery from consumption policies [3] Group 3 - The month-on-month decline in the PPI has narrowed for the first time since March, indicating a stabilization in industrial product prices due to improved market competition [4] - Key industries such as coal, steel, photovoltaic, cement, and lithium battery sectors have seen reduced price declines, contributing to a decrease in the downward pressure on the PPI [4] - Prices of representative "anti-involution" goods like coking coal, rebar, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate have entered a strong upward cycle, positively impacting the PPI [4] Group 4 - International factors are also positively influencing industrial product prices, with oil and gas extraction prices rising by 3.0% and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling prices increasing by 0.8% [4] - The transformation and upgrading of industries are driving price recoveries in related sectors, with caustic soda prices up by 3.6% and a reduced decline in glass manufacturing prices by 0.9% [4] - The release of domestic demand potential is leading to year-on-year price increases in certain industries, such as a 13.1% rise in the manufacturing of arts and crafts and a 5.3% increase in sports balls manufacturing [4]