Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" and is maintained [11] Core Insights - The heavy stockholding ratio of public funds in the utility sector increased to 1.08% in Q2 2025, up by 0.13 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a recovery in sector allocation [2][6] - The allocation percentage is at the 41.9th percentile historically, while the industry benchmark allocation is 2.72%, resulting in an underweight of -1.64% [2][6] - In the electricity sector, the holding ratios for thermal, hydropower, nuclear, and renewable energy generation are 33.18%, 52.73%, 3.54%, and 10.43% respectively, with changes of -7.65 percentage points, +5.62 percentage points, +0.26 percentage points, and +1.72 percentage points [2][6] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - The thermal power sector continues to see a decline in holdings, with major companies like Huadian International and Zhejiang Energy facing reductions, while others like Guodian Power and Datang Power have seen marginal increases due to their relatively low valuations [6][26] - The overall decline is attributed to several factors, including the timing of dividend payouts and a shift in market preferences towards high-growth sectors [26][27] Hydropower - Despite less rainfall nationwide, core hydropower assets have shown stable growth due to superior dispatch capabilities [7][37] - The valuation of hydropower has become attractive, with significant increases in holdings for companies like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power, reflecting market preference for core assets [7][37] Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector has seen a notable recovery in holdings, driven by improved market sentiment and attractive valuations after a prolonged adjustment period [8][44] - The implementation of new regulations has alleviated concerns regarding long-term pricing and returns, signaling the start of a recovery cycle for the sector [8][44] Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector's holdings increased to 3.54%, reflecting a recovery as previous pessimistic expectations have been fully priced in [9][44] - The long-term value of nuclear power remains solid despite short-term price fluctuations [9][44]

Core Viewpoint - A significant investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan in a super hydropower project has commenced, positively impacting the hydropower sector in China's A-share market [1] ESG Disclosure and Ratings - Among the 10 companies in the A-share hydropower industry, 7 have disclosed their 2024 ESG reports, resulting in a disclosure rate of 70% [1] - 90% of the companies in the hydropower sector are rated A (including A and A+), with only one company rated C [2] - Only 3 companies have disclosed Scope 1 and Scope 2 carbon emissions data, while none have reported Scope 3 emissions [2] Environmental and Social Dimensions - Protecting biodiversity is crucial for sustainable operations in hydropower companies, with measures like environmental impact assessments and ecological restoration being implemented [3] - Community relations and resettlement management are key social issues for hydropower companies, affecting their long-term reputation and sustainable development [3][4] - The "green" recognition of large hydropower projects must consider their full lifecycle carbon impacts and social effects to avoid creating new environmental and social liabilities [5] International Expansion and Challenges - Leading hydropower companies are achieving success in international markets, with projects in Peru and Myanmar enhancing their asset structures [5][6] - The global shift away from coal has created a strong demand for clean energy, making countries with quality water resources attractive for investment [6] - Offshore projects face complex risks, including compliance with local laws and potential impacts on local communities and ecosystems [6] Recommendations for ESG Improvement - Companies should focus on three main areas for ESG enhancement: environmental impact assessments related to biodiversity, strengthening supply chain ESG management, and improving corporate governance [6]

报告导读： 主题交易热度显著抬升，西部基建主题大涨，券商与资源品获资金净流入。短 期聚焦国内新兴科技产业新一轮行情。推荐：AI新基建/具身智能/区域经济/限产稳价。 主题温度计：主题交易热度显著抬升，西部基建主题大涨，券商与资源品主题获资金净流入。 上周热点主 题日均成交额平均6.71亿元，日均换手率4.02%，均较上期显著抬升。热点主题结构再度切换，重大工程 雅下水电相关主题大涨，反内卷持续扩散下资源品期货出现逼空行情，相关板块股价强势，而PCB、跨境 结算等主题回调；券商与资源品主题获得资金净流入，基建央企与小盘风格资金流出。证监会强调全力巩 固市场回稳向好态势，股市风险系统性下降利好主题投资，短期聚焦人工智能大会催化下AI与具身智能主 题新一轮行情，中期关注区域经济与反内卷推进下的周期类主题。 主题一：AI新基建。 2025世界人工智能大会开幕，国产AI产业链迎来新产品与新需求催化。国务院总理 李强出席2025世界人工智能大会开幕式并致辞，提出更加注重普及普惠，更加注重创新合作等建议。本次 大会聚焦AI基础设施、科学智能、智能终端、AI赋能新型工业化、AI+金融等10大板块。重磅AI应用与终 端产品发布 ...

Economic Growth - President Xi Jinping emphasized seven key tasks for urban development, including optimizing modern urban systems and promoting high-quality urban renewal[9] - Premier Li Qiang highlighted the importance of strengthening domestic circulation and enhancing consumer demand through diversified supply[9] Infrastructure and Industry - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has commenced with a total investment of approximately CNY 1.2 trillion[10] - 16 central enterprises signed investment agreements for 75 industrial projects in Tibet, amounting to CNY 317.5 billion[10] Consumer Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission revised the Price Law for the first time in 27 years, addressing issues related to irrational price wars and unfair pricing practices[14] - Regulatory bodies have urged major platforms like Ele.me, Meituan, and JD.com to standardize promotional activities and engage in rational competition[14] Financial Regulation - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is pushing for listed companies to enhance investment value and implement major asset restructuring management[16] - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange proposed a unified currency pool policy framework[16] Trade Relations - New high-level economic talks between China and the U.S. are set to begin, focusing on mutual economic concerns[18] - The Hainan Free Trade Port will implement zero-tariff policies for certain goods starting December 18, 2025[19] Risk Warning - There is a persistent divergence in domestic and foreign monetary policies, with domestic policy execution falling short of expectations[25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a significant drop in new installations of solar and wind power in June, suggesting that the supply-side pressure is easing, and green electricity is expected to experience a reversal [2][10]. - The increase in the proportion of renewable energy is expected to stimulate the demand for flexible power generation, benefiting coal-fired power plants and aiding in the absorption of renewable energy [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the power sector, particularly coal-fired power companies with resilient quarterly performance and leading firms in flexible coal-fired power transformation [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of June 30, the total installed power generation capacity in the country reached 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%. Solar power capacity was 1.1 billion kilowatts, up 54.2%, and wind power capacity was 570 million kilowatts, up 22.7% [7][13]. - In June, new installations of solar and wind power dropped significantly, with solar power adding 14.36 GW and wind power adding 5.11 GW, down 78.56% and 21.21% respectively from May [7][13]. - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased by 162 hours year-on-year to 1504 hours [7][13]. Electricity Demand - In June, the total electricity consumption increased by 5.4%, with the first, second, and third industries, as well as residential electricity consumption, showing growth rates of 8.7%, 2.4%, 7.1%, and 4.9% respectively [7][10]. - The third industry's electricity demand showed resilience, with internet and related services growing by 27.4% year-on-year [7][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on coal-fired power companies such as Huaneng International, Huadian International, and Baoneng New Energy, as well as leading firms in flexible coal-fired power transformation like Qingda Environmental Protection [2]. - It also suggests prioritizing undervalued green electricity operators, particularly in the Hong Kong market, and companies with high stock project ratios and short-term revenue certainty [2]. Market Performance - The report notes that during the week of July 21-25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.67%, while the electricity and public utilities sector index fell by 0.03%, underperforming the broader market [55][56].

证券研究报告 2025年07月27日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 摘要 周思考：房地产指数的长期超额与销量增速和房价增速的趋势性变化相关。短期来看，近一年房地产指数超额收益呈现脉冲式锯齿形态，具有周期短、波动剧烈、与 政策强关联三大特征。我们认为，这一现象是因为近期地产股表现主要受短期刺激政策博弈驱动，而基本面复苏较弱则难以支撑行情持续性。具体来看，近6轮上涨波 段中指数超额收益均值达13%，平均持续18天。我们认为，短期来看，若7月政治局会议或相关部委政策释放更积极的房地产刺激信号，地产指数或开启新一轮脉冲式 上行；中长期视角下，当前商品房销量与房价跌幅已现收窄趋势，但指数仍处低位，待基本面止跌回稳态势进一步明确确认后，板块有望迎来持续性行情。 市场回顾：本周（7.14-7.18），全A上涨1.86%，市场继续上攻。板块方面，机器人、稀土相关概念表现强势。当周全A日均成交额达15397亿元，较前周增加466亿元， 市场活跃度高位震荡。市场情绪方面，当周平均上涨家数为2779家，较前周减少275家；平均涨停家数由前周的68家减至61家，赚钱效应有所减弱。资金流向方面， 策略报告：投资策略专题 ...

Group 1: Hydropower Project - China has officially begun construction on a giant hydropower station on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, which is expected to provide clean energy equivalent to three Three Gorges dams, generating nearly 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually [1] - The energy output from this project is comparable to adding 150 million tons of oil to China's energy supply each year, while also contributing to a reduction in carbon emissions [1] Group 2: Regional Concerns - The project has faced strong opposition from India, which fears that China may use the hydropower station as a tool for "water hegemony," manipulating water flow during droughts and floods [4] - India has a history of similar actions, such as the Farakka Barrage incident, leading to concerns that its own past actions are being projected onto China [4]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of the Xunwu Pumped Storage Power Station in Jiangxi, with a total installed capacity of 1.2 million kilowatts, has commenced as a key project under China's "14th Five-Year Plan" for pumped storage development [1] Investment and Economic Impact - The total investment for the project is 7.967 billion yuan [1] - The project is expected to generate 15.1 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, sufficient to meet the electricity needs of 750,000 households [1] - It is projected to boost GDP by 20 billion yuan during the construction period and create over 3,000 jobs, with annual tax revenue exceeding 100 million yuan [1] Environmental Benefits - The power station will enhance the peak-shaving capacity of the Jiangxi power grid by 3 million kilowatts [1] - It is estimated to save 470,000 tons of standard coal and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 1.17 million tons annually, with a total lifecycle emission reduction exceeding 65 million tons [1]

关于本栏目 2025年上半年，国内生产总值660536亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.3%。 截至目前，全国31个省份中上半年经济数据均已公布。从GDP增速来看，23个省份超过或与全国5.3%的平均线持平，8个省份未能跑赢全国大盘。 高频数据难懂？挖掘信息不易？【国金高频图鉴】每周一期，与您一同从高频数据库中抽丝剥茧，看懂全球经济的新变化。如需底层数据库，欢迎联系国金宏观团 队。 各省份 GDP 增速分化 雅下水电正式开工 " 反内卷 " 支撑期货价格集体回升 上半年信贷资金流向 中美直接贸易往来减弱 01 #本期Headline# 各省份GDP增速分化 出口波动较大，其中对美国出口依赖度最高的山西（对美出口占总出口的24%）上半年出口下滑34.8%，跌幅明显。相反，出口大省中除广东外，江苏、浙 江、山东、上海等地出口均维持韧性。另外，中部省份如河南、湖北等地出口表现亮眼。 江、山东、上海等地出口均维持韧性。另外，中部省份如河南、湖北等地出口表现亮眼。 02 雅下水电正式开工 经济总量排名靠前省份中，除广东外，经济前五省份增速均高于全国平均水平，合计拉动GDP增长2.1个百分点左右，是国内经济增长的压舱石。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the yield of the 10-year active Treasury bond rose from 1.664% last Friday to 1.664% + 6.85bp = 1.7325%. The "anti-involution" policy and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project extended the stock-bond seesaw last week to the commodity-bond seesaw this week. By referring to the supply-side reform from 2015 - 2017, it is predicted that the PPI year-on-year will steadily recover but is unlikely to turn positive this year, and the recovery of the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock requires time and central bank support. It is expected that the interest rate will mainly show a downward trend this year [1][18]. - Last week, overseas markets generally continued the previous week's trend, with US Treasuries falling and US stocks remaining flat. The short - end of US Treasuries rose less than the long - end. Considering the impact of Trump's tariff policy on prices and the support of stablecoins for the short - end of US Treasuries, and based on the new data, the report analyzes the US economic data in July 2025, including PMI, housing sales, unemployment benefits, and EIA crude oil inventory. The "Shadow Fed Chairman" and Trump are pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates. The probability of a 25bp interest rate cut in July remains at 4.1%, while the probability of a rate cut in September has increased to 61.9% [3][7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 One - Week Views 3.1.1 Impact of "Anti - Involution" Policy on Commodity - Bond Seesaw - This week (July 21 - 25, 2025), the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond rose 6.85bp from 1.664% last Friday to 1.7325%. The start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project and the "anti - involution" policy affected the bond market. The yield increased on most days, with a slight decline on Friday [1]. - By looking back at the supply - side reform from 2015 - 2017, there was a one - year lag between the rise in commodity prices and bond yields. It is predicted that the PPI year - on - year will recover but not turn positive this year, and the recovery of the social financing stock growth rate needs time and central bank support. It is expected that the interest rate will mainly decline this year [18]. 3.1.2 Outlook for US Treasury Yields After Data Release - Last week, overseas markets continued the previous week's trend, with US Treasuries falling and US stocks remaining flat. The short - end of US Treasuries rose less than the long - end. The report analyzes the July 2025 US economic data: the service PMI decreased, the manufacturing PMI increased; the EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 316.9 million barrels; the annualized month - on - month decline in existing home sales in June was 2.7%; the number of initial jobless claims decreased, and the number of continued jobless claims increased. The "Shadow Fed Chairman" and Trump are pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates. As of July 25, the probability of a 25bp interest rate cut in July remained at 4.1%, and the probability of a rate cut in September increased to 61.9% [3][7]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summaries 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - In terms of open - market operations, from July 21 - 25, 2025, the net investment was 1295 billion yuan. The money market interest rates generally increased compared to last week [40]. - The yields of various bonds and the term spreads of bonds also changed. For example, the yields of 1 - year and 3 - year Treasury bonds increased, and the term spreads of some bonds also changed [48]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Steel prices significantly increased. For example, the price of HRB400 20mm rebar nationwide rose from 3321 yuan/ton on July 18 to 3472 yuan/ton on July 25, an increase of 151 yuan/ton [55]. - The official prices of LME non - ferrous metal futures all increased. For example, the price of LME 3 - month zinc rose from 2782 dollars/ton on July 18 to 2845 dollars/ton on July 25, an increase of 2.26% [57]. - The total commercial housing transaction area increased across the board [56]. 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 61 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 3757.55 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 828.46 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 2929.09 billion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of issuance amount were Zhejiang, Chongqing, and Guangdong [68]. - One province issued special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts, with Henan issuing 118.6481 billion yuan. From January 1 to July 25, 2025, the total issuance of such bonds nationwide was 18364.35 billion yuan [71]. - The total early redemption scale of urban investment bonds this week was 19.58 billion yuan, with Chongqing, Gansu, and Yunnan leading in redemption amount [75]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The stock of local government bonds this week was 52.3 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 3861.04 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.74%. The top three provinces in terms of trading activity were Guangdong, Shandong, and Sichuan. The top three active trading maturities were 30Y, 20Y, and 10Y [80]. - The yields of local government bonds generally declined this week [84]. 3.3.3 This Month's Local Government Bond Issuance Plan The report shows the local government bond issuance plan for the end of July, with multiple provinces having planned issuances [85]. 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 370 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 3508.44 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 2959.29 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 549.15 billion yuan, an increase of 96.95 billion yuan compared to last week [87]. - Specifically, the net financing amount of urban investment bonds was - 308.31 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 857.46 billion yuan [88]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The issuance interest rates of various bonds changed. For example, the issuance interest rate of short - term financing bonds decreased by 3.55bp, while that of medium - term notes increased by 9.57bp [99]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The trading volume of credit bonds in the secondary market was 5722.35 billion yuan. Among them, the trading volume of medium - term notes was the largest, reaching 3252.69 billion yuan [101]. 3.4.4 Yield to Maturity - The yields of various bonds generally increased. For example, the yield of 1 - year short - term financing bonds increased by 9.61bp, and the yield of 3 - year medium - term notes increased by 10.40bp [104]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes generally widened, while those of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [109][116]. 3.4.6 Rating Spreads - The rating spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds generally widened, while those of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [120][125]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity - The report lists the top five most actively traded bonds in each bond type. The industrial industry had the largest weekly trading volume of credit bonds, reaching 3262.06 billion yuan [133]. 3.4.8 Changes in Subject Ratings There were no bonds with upgraded or downgraded ratings or outlooks this week [134].