信达证券研报指出，荣盛石化（维权）上半年实现归母净利润6.02亿元，同比下降29.82%；Q2实现归 母净利润0.14亿元，同比下降95.52%，环比下降97.67%。芳烃板块带来一定拖累，上半年公司业绩明显 承压。存量竞争时代来临，看好先进民营炼化产能业绩弹性。公司作为国内民营炼化先进产能，或在当 前增量有限、减量出清的竞争格局优化背景下持续受益，仍看好公司未来业绩释放弹性。看好公司在未 来炼化行业存量竞争时代中的业绩弹性，叠加公司股东回报持续强化，该行维持对荣盛石化的"买入"评 级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the petrochemical sector, particularly focusing on private large-scale refining companies [3][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights a transformative period in refining, suggesting a focus on private large-scale refining companies due to structural adjustments in the industry [15]. - The "anti-involution" trend is seen as a potential turning point for the chemical industry, with expectations of improved profitability and competitive dynamics in the coming quarters [16][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of PPI turning positive, which could lead to increased market allocation towards cyclical midstream sectors, benefiting the chemical industry [17]. Industry Overview - The basic chemical industry comprises 493 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 51,121.17 billion and a circulating market value of 45,298.84 billion [3]. - The industry index for the chemical sector is reported at 71.55, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.06% week-on-week and a year-on-year decline of 22.79% [14]. - The report notes that the current operating rate in the chemical industry is around 66.53%, indicating a stable production environment [14]. Price Trends - Key price movements include an 8.0% increase in lithium carbonate and a 7.7% increase in acrylic short fibers, driven by strong demand and supply constraints [6][15]. - The report indicates that the export prices for diammonium phosphate and monoammonium phosphate have risen significantly, with year-to-date increases of 24.4% and 18.1%, respectively [18]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with low valuations and potential for upward movement, including leading chemical firms like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, as well as companies benefiting from export quotas [17][18]. - Specific companies to watch include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Yihua Chemical, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing structural changes in the industry [15][18].

8月18日，美乌欧华盛顿会晤，地缘局势有望得到进一步缓和，对油价的支撑或将减弱。而月初， OPEC+宣布将在9月再次大幅增产原油，计划每日增加54.7万桶产量，以加快争夺全球原油市场份额。 此举被认为标志着OPEC此报告保价转向放量的重大政策转变。有业内人士分析，在OPEC+持续石油增 产，以及全球经济低速增长致使石油消费受限的大背景下，原油市场将呈现供大于求的局面，这将对油 价走势形成压制，今年剩余时间内整体运行中枢可能会逐步下移。 据炼化行业的历史数据显示，在油价中枢下移的背景下，化工板块成本端有所优化，作为化工型炼厂的 民营大炼化盈利弹性有望释放。以荣盛石化旗下浙石化为例，测算不同油价中枢背景下其理论净利润水 平，在油价分别为80/70/60美元基准下，浙石化理论净利润分别提升至53/107/138亿元。政策端频频释 放信号"反内卷"势在必行 进入8月，国际油价正经历震荡趋弱。据悉，因俄乌地缘局势降温预期将压制油价，叠加OPEC+增产步 伐加快，供应端趋于宽松。多重因素影响下，市场普遍预测今年下半年国际油价将承压前行。因油价中 枢下移通常会带来化工板块成本端的优化，加之国内目前的"反内卷"风暴，荣盛石化 ...

Group 1 - The domestic key refining project price difference this week is 2579 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton (up 1%) compared to the previous week [2] - The average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY this week are 6789, 7100, and 7986 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week increases of 61, 57, and 57 yuan/ton [2] - The average profit for the POY, FDY, and DTY industries this week is 35, -25, and -34 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of +18, +16, and +16 yuan/ton [2] Group 2 - The inventory levels for POY, FDY, and DTY are 13.8, 22.7, and 27.8 days respectively, showing week-on-week decreases of 2.3, 0.6, and 0.4 days [2] - The operating rate for long filaments is 90.7%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous week [2] - The operating rate for weaving machines this week is 60.1%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points compared to the previous week [2] Group 3 - Domestic refined oil prices for gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene have decreased this week [2] - The average PX price this week is 841.1 USD/ton, an increase of 9.0 USD/ton compared to the previous week [2] - The PX operating rate is 84.6%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous week [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Rongsheng Petrochemical is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 was significantly pressured, with a revenue of 148.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 600 million yuan, down 29.82% year-on-year [1][2] - The report highlights that the aromatics sector has dragged down the company's performance, primarily due to a decline in international oil prices, which averaged $71 per barrel in the first half of 2025, a 15% decrease year-on-year [4] - The report anticipates that the era of stock competition is approaching, and it is optimistic about the performance elasticity of advanced private refining capacities in the current competitive landscape [4] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the gross profit margins for refining products, chemical products, and polyester products were 22.6%, 12.1%, and 1.5%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +4 percentage points, -2.6 percentage points, and +0.16 percentage points [4] - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 1.753 billion, 2.722 billion, and 4.155 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 142.0%, 55.2%, and 52.7% respectively [4][6] - The diluted EPS for the same period is projected to be 0.18, 0.27, and 0.42 yuan per share, with corresponding P/E ratios of 57.09, 36.78, and 24.09 times [4][6]

Price Trends - Domestic refining project price spread this week is 2579 CNY/ton, up by 18 CNY/ton (1%) week-on-week[2] - International refining project price spread this week is 1077 CNY/ton, down by 33 CNY/ton (-3%) week-on-week[2] Polyester Sector - Average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY are 6789, 7100, and 7986 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week increases of 61, 57, and 57 CNY/ton[2] - Weekly average profits for POY, FDY, and DTY are 35, -25, and -34 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of +18, +16, and +16 CNY/ton[2] - Inventory days for POY, FDY, and DTY are 13.8, 22.7, and 27.8 days respectively, with week-on-week changes of -2.3, -0.6, and -0.4 days[2] - Operating rate for polyester filament is 90.7%, up by 0.1 percentage points week-on-week[2] Refining Sector - Domestic gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel prices have decreased this week[2] - US aviation fuel prices have also decreased this week[2] Chemical Sector - PX average price is 841.1 USD/ton, up by 9.0 USD/ton week-on-week, with a price spread against crude oil of 353.3 USD/ton, up by 5.3 USD/ton week-on-week[2] - PX operating rate is 84.6%, up by 1.4 percentage points week-on-week[2] Risks - Project implementation progress may fall short of expectations[2] - Macroeconomic growth slowdown could lead to weaker-than-expected demand recovery[2] - Geopolitical risks may cause fluctuations in raw material prices[2] - Significant changes in industry capacity may occur[2] - Statistical discrepancies and calculation errors may arise[2]

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 本期内容提要： [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：长丝需求有所回暖，库存、产销 情况改善 [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 [Table_Author] [Table_Summary] ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪：截至 8 月 22 日当周，国内重点大炼 化项目价差为 2431.20 元/吨，环比变化+29.59 元/吨（+1.23%）； 国外重点大炼化项目价差为 1080.63 元/吨，环比变化-29.81 元/吨（- 2.68%）。截至 8 月 22 日当周，布伦 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Hengli Petrochemical Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry is experiencing positive changes due to domestic anti-involution policies and the exit of overseas capacities, leading to a new phase of cost stabilization, supply optimization, and demand improvement in China's petrochemical capacity [2][6] - Korean petrochemical companies are restructuring to reduce ethylene capacity by 270 to 370 thousand tons, which has increased market activity and downstream customer purchasing willingness [7] - The PTA market has reached a total capacity of 88 million tons with a utilization rate of approximately 78%-79%, indicating a potential market upturn [2][20] Company Performance - Hengli Petrochemical has maintained its industry-leading position by optimizing operations and managing costs despite challenges such as ethylene unit maintenance [2][4] - The company expects a net profit of approximately 3.05 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with 1 billion yuan expected in Q2, primarily from operational activities [4] - The stock price of Hengli Petrochemical has surged due to tight inventory levels in the market, with significant price increases in coal futures reflecting the tense situation in the energy and chemical sectors [9][10] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in industry prosperity due to the upcoming demand peak in Q3 and supportive macro policies [5][11] - The overall petrochemical industry is at a turning point in its economic cycle, with expectations of improved profitability in the PTA sector in the latter half of 2025 and into 2026 [19][29] - The implementation of strict policies to eliminate outdated capacities could potentially remove about 30% of the industry’s capacity, impacting both state-owned and private enterprises [16][17] Market Dynamics - The fuel oil market is currently tight, with insufficient production due to poor cracking margins, and the market is awaiting a turnaround [13] - The overall supply-demand situation for ethylene is currently loose, but profitability is expected to improve in the coming years [19] - China has become the largest global supplier of PTA, with over 90% of the world's PTA coming from the country, following Japan's exit from PTA production [21][22] Strategic Insights - The anti-involution policy is expected to enhance the competitiveness of the petrochemical industry by optimizing the industrial structure and promoting the exit of outdated capacities [8][28] - Major players in the industry are likely to engage in self-regulation to stabilize the market and improve profitability amid ongoing losses [25][26] - Hengli Petrochemical is positioned as a leading enterprise in the petrochemical sector, with a strong outlook for future growth driven by favorable policies and market conditions [27][29]

Core Viewpoint - Hengyi Petrochemical reported a total revenue of 55.96 billion yuan and a net profit of 227 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with ongoing projects expected to strengthen its position as a leading integrated enterprise in the "refining-chemical-fiber" industry chain [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Hengyi Petrochemical achieved total revenue of 55.96 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 227 million yuan [2] - The company has established a refining capacity of 8 million tons per year, PTA capacity of 21.5 million tons per year, and polymer capacity of 13.25 million tons per year [2] Group 2: R&D and Innovation - Hengyi Petrochemical increased its R&D expenditure to 460 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.97%, and submitted 300 invention patent applications during the reporting period [3] - The company holds 566 effective patents, including 500 R&D patents and 66 smart manufacturing patents, and has participated in the formulation and revision of 58 standards [3] Group 3: Market Position and Projects - The Brunei refining project, with a capacity of 8 million tons per year, is the largest single investment project by a private Chinese enterprise overseas [4] - The ASEAN region is expected to maintain a GDP growth rate of 4.5%, which is higher than the global average, potentially driving demand for refining products [4] - Hengyi Petrochemical's integrated project for producing 120,000 tons of caprolactam and polyamide is expected to commence production in the second half of 2025 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Hengyi Petrochemical reported a total operating revenue of 55.96 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 227 million yuan for the first half of 2025, highlighting the steady progress of its Brunei refining project and the Guangxi 1.2 million tons of caprolactam-nylon project, which are expected to strengthen the company's position as a global leader in the integrated "refining-chemical-fiber" industry chain [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Hengyi Petrochemical achieved total operating revenue of 55.96 billion yuan and a net profit of 227 million yuan [1] - The company has established a refining design capacity of 8 million tons per year, 21.5 million tons per year of PTA capacity, and 13.25 million tons per year of polymer capacity [1] Group 2: R&D and Product Development - Hengyi Petrochemical increased its R&D expenditure to 460 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.97%, and submitted 300 invention patent applications [2] - The company has optimized its polyester product structure, with differentiated fiber products accounting for 27% of total production, leading the industry in differentiation [2] Group 3: Market Position and Future Prospects - The Brunei refining project, with a capacity of 8 million tons per year, is the largest single investment project by a private Chinese enterprise overseas [3] - The Southeast Asian region is expected to see a significant increase in oil demand, with a projected supply gap of 68 million tons by 2026 due to refinery closures [3] - The Guangxi caprolactam-nylon project is expected to enhance Hengyi Petrochemical's market share and become a key driver of future performance growth [4]