热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯生猪行业资深分析师李晶 【导语】2025年末能繁母猪存栏下滑明显，但减产主体中散户居多推动规模化占比提升，产效提升或对 冲母猪减少的影响。2026年产能仍过剩或导致养殖盈利明显缩水，但对中小养殖户来说，也带来大猪供 应缺口扩大的契机，未来饲料成本或维持低位，而压栏大猪或减亏增利，成为中小户提供穿越亏损周期 的利器。 能繁母猪存栏下滑明显，规模场占比进一步提升 2025年5月以来，农业农村部多次召开会议规划调整生猪产能。6月上旬，举行生猪生产调度会，提出将 对全国能繁母猪存栏量在现有基础上调减100万头左右，降至3950万头。政策实施以来，多家头部猪企 接到相关部门要求，暂停扩产能繁母猪以及二次育肥。同时在四季度自繁自养和仔猪育肥双双亏损后， 也推动自然减产开始，全国能繁母猪存栏量自2025年10月跌破4000万头（3990万头）后，继续下行，至 2025年末降至3961万头，为近五年来最低水平。较2024年末的4078万头减少117万头，减幅2.9%，减产 计划基本完成。 同时结合卓创资讯对规模养殖企业能繁母猪监测数据分析，规模企业自9 ...

[Table_Summary] 我们认为，从练内功到带农户，从富农户到兴产业，德康农牧在生猪养殖行业探索了一条真正 实现联农带农和富农强农的产业振兴之路。深耕育种打牢养殖根基，成功构建起高壁垒的自主 繁育体系；二号农场重构养殖环节的生产关系，最大程度激发农户养殖的潜力和动能；"百村百 万"工程带动二号农场模式的快速落地，更好地赋能乡村振兴从而实现强农富农。在生猪养殖 行业进入高质量发展新时代，德康农牧以"不难不做"的企业基因，将行业难题系统性地转化 为自身强大的护城河，最终形成"低投入、高周转、高回报"的生猪养殖体系，持续重点推荐。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 顾熀乾 陈佳 SAC：S0490519060003 SAC：S0490513080003 SFC：BQT624 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司深度丨德康农牧（02419.HK） [Table_Title] 德康农牧深度系列二：联农标杆，富农典范 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 28 %% %% %% %% resea ...

Important Matters - Baida Precision states that the revenue from its robotics business accounts for a very low proportion of the company's total revenue and has not yet achieved scale sales [1] - Lushan New Materials indicates that its space packaging adhesive film has not yet passed Starlink certification and has not supplied directly to China Star Network [1] - YN Holdings, which has achieved a four-day consecutive increase, claims it only holds an investment in Tianqian Computing and will not consolidate Tianqian Computing's financial statements or participate in its specific operations, with its main business still being thermal power generation [1] - Jiazhe New Energy mentions that its green chemical business is still in the initial stage and does not have the conditions for commercialization, thus having no substantial or significant impact on the company's revenue and profit growth in the short term [1] - Oil Fund LOF warns of the risk of premium pricing in the secondary market [1] Share Reduction - Baida Precision's shareholder, Hangzhou Chonghu, plans to reduce its shares through centralized bidding and block trading from February 26, 2026, to May 25, 2026 [2] - China Nuclear Construction's shareholder, China Cinda, will reduce 8.0354 million shares from November 19, 2025, to February 18, 2026 [2] Performance - Wens Foodstuff Group reports a 44% year-on-year decline in net profit for 2025, attributed to a significant decrease in the sales price of live pigs, leading to a drop in profits from pig farming [4] - MicroNano achieves total operating revenue of 2.632 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.52%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 213 million yuan, down 6.12% year-on-year [4] - Supor reports a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.097 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decline of 6.58% [4]

Group 1: Control Acquisition - Dongyangguang is planning to acquire control of Yichang Dongshu No. 1 Investment Co., Ltd. through a share issuance and raise supporting funds, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring and related party transaction, but will not change the actual controller of the company [2] Group 2: Performance Reports - Wens Foodstuff Group reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.235 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 43.59%, with sales of 40.4769 million pigs and an average selling price of 13.71 yuan/kg, down 17.95% year-on-year [3] - Zhongke Shuguang achieved total operating revenue of 14.970 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.86%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.113 billion yuan, up 10.54% year-on-year, driven by product structure optimization and operational efficiency improvements [3] Group 3: Box Office Data - Light Media's subsidiary film "Fast Life 3" has accumulated box office revenue of approximately 2.926 billion yuan, exceeding 50% of the company's audited consolidated financial statement revenue for the most recent fiscal year, with revenue from this film estimated between 43 million and 53 million yuan [4] - The film "Silent Awakening" has accumulated box office revenue of approximately 867 million yuan, also exceeding 50% of the company's audited consolidated financial statement revenue for the most recent fiscal year, with revenue from this film estimated between 5.2 million and 6.6 million yuan [4] Group 4: Equity Acquisitions - Tongwei Co. is planning to acquire 100% equity of Qinghai Lihua Qingneng Co., Ltd. through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, which will not change the controlling shareholder or actual controller and is not expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [5] - Changxin Bochuang signed a letter of intent to acquire 93.8108% of Shanghai Honghui Guanglian Communication Technology Co., Ltd., with a tentative price of 375 million yuan, aiming to expand its product offerings in the upstream optical device sector [6] - Kaipu Cloud announced the termination of its major asset restructuring plan to acquire a stake in Nanning Taike Semiconductor Co., Ltd. due to failure to reach consensus on core transaction terms, committing not to plan any major asset restructuring for at least one month [6]

生猪专家 2026 年行情展望电话会 20260223 摘要 2023 年猪价微亏，2024 年和 2025 年盈利较好，但 2026 年预计全年 均价在 12.3-12.45 元/公斤，自繁自养基本保本，外购仔猪育肥可能微 亏，整体盈利空间有限。 受前期利润影响，母猪去产能动力不足，虽政策要求调减，但企业减产 不积极。预计 2026 年或减产，但幅度不大，速度较慢，规模化企业抗 风险能力强。 短期内猪价仍有下行空间，受春节后季节性下跌和前期体重偏重影响， 上半年或跌破 11 元/公斤。二次育肥和冻品入库支撑力度不足。 仔猪市场总体盈利，采购需求较高，商品猪亏损未必立即导致补栏减少。 若仔猪价格上涨至 456 元左右，将支撑母猪存栏，不利于快速去产能。 2026 年生猪养殖行业或将僵持，政策要求减产，但仔猪利润支撑减产 动力不足。母猪减产趋势缓慢，自繁自养成本在 11.23-12 元/公斤，外 购仔猪育肥成本在 12-13 元/公斤。 2026 年商品猪出栏量同比增加约 4.8%，供应仍处高位，预计全年均价 低于 2025 年。冬季疫情影响有限，但 2026 年五六月份商品猪出栏量 或环比下滑。 二次育肥主要 ...

行 华福证券 农林牧渔 2026 年 02 月 24 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 节后淡季来临，猪价或延续跌势 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：节后淡季来临，猪价或延续跌势。（1）节后猪价下探。春 节多数屠企停工放假，生猪购销基本停滞，随假期步入尾声，养殖企业陆 续恢复出栏，市场购销恢复，猪价开启回落，2 月 23 日猪价回落至 11.26 元/公斤，较 2 月 13 日-0.4 元/公斤。（2）消费淡季来临，节后宰量处于低 位水平。随假期步入尾声，多数屠企已陆续开工，当前宰量处于低位水平， 收购顺畅度高，采购难度不大。2 月 23 日样本企业日屠宰量 9.20 万头，较 节前 2 月 13 日下降 64%。冻品方面，春节前屠企加快消化冻品库存。截至 2 月 12 日当周，行业冻品库存率 17.18%，周环比-4.08pct。（3）生猪均重 季节性下降。节前规模场增量降重，散户与二次育肥出栏积极，集中出栏 带动生猪出栏均重下降。2 月 12 日当周，行业生猪出栏均重 126.05 公斤（周 环比-1.35 公斤），其中集团场均重 122.62 公斤（周环比-0.72 公斤）、散 户均重 139.6 ...

智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，2026年1月，包括牧原股份、温氏股份等在内的18家样本猪 企合计生猪出栏量1802.15万头，同比增长12.54%，环比25年12月减少11.15%；出栏均重方面，包括牧 原股份、温氏股份等在内的9家样本猪企商品猪平均体重为123.71公斤。行业层面，截至2月12日，根据 涌益咨询监测，自繁自养企业销售商品猪利润为-52.94元/头，自去年底以来再度转亏，销售仔猪头均利 润为75元/头，为连续第5周盈利。 华创证券主要观点如下： 出栏量：1月18家样本猪企合计出栏量同比增长12.54%，环比减少11.15% 1月包括牧原股份、温氏股份等在内的18家样本猪企合计生猪出栏量1802.15万头，同比增长12.54%，环 比25年12月减少11.15%。其中，出栏量前5名分别为牧原股份、温氏股份、新希望、德康农牧、正邦科 技，出栏量分别为700.90万头、338.42万头、139.82万头、104.24万头、92.75万头，出栏量同比增速前5 名分别为京基智农、东瑞股份、正邦科技、金新农、巨星农牧，增速分别为79.87%、78.31%、 62.32%、60.56%、59.40 ...

根据国家统计局公布的数据，农产品（主要用于加工）类别下的生猪（外三元）2026年1月下旬市场价 格为12.7元/千克，同比下滑18.59%，环比下滑1.55%，纵观近5年同时期其价格，2020年1月下旬达到最 大值，有37.6元/吨。 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国生猪养殖行业市场调查研究及投资策略研究报告》 2020-2026年1月下旬生猪（外三元）市场价格变动统计图 数据来源：国家统计局 ...

Group 1: Market Trends Post-Spring Festival - The Shanghai Composite Index shows a significant upward trend after the Spring Festival, with probabilities of increases over 5, 10, 20, and 30 days being 75%, 70%, 80%, and 60% respectively, and median gains of 1.64%, 1.32%, 9.45%, and 3.88% [1] - Over the past decade, the coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and defense industries have performed well in the month following the Spring Festival, with the computer industry leading in the last two years [1] Group 2: Industry Performance Data - Historical data shows varying performance across industries during the Spring Festival period, with coal, environmental protection, and agriculture showing notable gains in specific years, such as coal in 2016 with a maximum gain of 10.34% and agriculture in 2019 with a maximum gain of 19.78% [2] - The report indicates that the coal industry is expected to see a significant increase in production capacity in 2026, with an anticipated rise of 0.7 billion tons, while also highlighting a potential reduction in capacity by 1.5 billion tons due to policy changes [2] Group 3: Agricultural Sector Insights - The agricultural sector is projected to experience a gradual recovery in pig prices by 2026, driven by a reduction in breeding sow capacity, which is expected to improve profitability for leading pig farming companies [3] - The report emphasizes opportunities in the poultry sector, particularly for leading chicken farming companies, and highlights the growth potential in the pet market [3] Group 4: Defense Industry Outlook - The defense industry is poised for growth in 2026, driven by geopolitical factors and advancements in military technology, with a focus on precision-guided munitions, unmanned systems, and networked battlefield capabilities [4] - Key recommendations include investments in missile weaponry, new aviation equipment, unmanned systems, and commercial aerospace sectors, with specific companies highlighted for their strategic positions within these industries [5]

农历正月初五，红灯笼还挂着，春联还是新的。路上走亲访友的人提着礼品，脚步匆匆，年味还没散， 但日子已经往前赶了。在郑州，省委、省政府主要领导与我省民营企业家代表餐叙交流，聊的是过去一 年的打拼，议的是新一年的奔头。这场连续两年的"新春之约"，没有客套寒暄，图的就是个坦诚相见， 有啥说啥。 责任编辑： 秦臻 春风已度黄河岸，策马扬鞭正当时。政府营造好环境，企业练好真内功，政企同心往前奔，河南民营经 济的又一个春天，就在这踏踏实实的脚步里。（李晓星） 民营经济强，河南经济才会强。回望2025年，全省生产总值迈上6.66万亿元台阶，增速领跑经济大省 ——这份成绩单上，浸润着广大民营企业家的汗水。牧原集团三十年只做养猪这一件事，把"畜头肉 尾"的文章做深做透，成为全国首家"A+H"生猪养殖企业；龙佰集团围绕钛产业一路深耕，从地方小厂 成长为全球钛业龙头；蜜雪冰城靠着"供应链+品牌IP"的创新模式，把一杯杯奶茶卖到了全球；卫龙从 一根辣条起步，带起了从种植到物流的全产业链……这些企业或许起点不同、赛道各异，但都有一个共 同特点：沉得下心、守得住根。正是千千万万这样的民营企业，撑起了河南经济的底气。 "十五五"开局之年， ...