Core Viewpoint - The stock of Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry has experienced a decline of 2.01% on October 17, with a current price of 19.50 CNY per share, reflecting a total market capitalization of 9.946 billion CNY. The company has shown a year-to-date stock price increase of 10.91% but has faced recent declines over various trading periods [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry reported a revenue of 3.717 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year growth of 66.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 181 million CNY, representing a significant increase of 504.12% [2]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry stood at 36,300, an increase of 0.70% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 0.70% to 14,044 shares [2]. Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry has distributed a total of 222 million CNY in dividends, with 102 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, among the top ten circulating shareholders, Yinhua Domestic Demand Selected Mixed Fund (161810) held 6.75 million shares, a decrease of 730,000 shares from the previous period. New institutional investors include Guotai Zhongzheng Livestock Breeding ETF (159865), which holds 3.6297 million shares [3].

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The credit structure and fund activity continue to optimize, with social financing scale increasing by 3.5 trillion yuan in September, exceeding expectations of 3.3 trillion yuan [3] - The growth of RMB loans in September was 1.29 trillion yuan, slightly below the expected 1.39 trillion yuan, indicating a weaker demand for loans [4][36] - The M1 growth rate increased to 7.2% in September, while M2 growth decreased to 8.4%, reflecting a shift in deposit structure and a potential slowdown in M1 growth in October [7][35] Group 2: Industry Analysis - Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The price of pigs fell unexpectedly, with the average selling price in September at 13.10 yuan/kg, down 4.86% month-on-month and 30.90% year-on-year, indicating increased pressure on pig farming [18] - The number of large pigs being sold has decreased, suggesting a tightening supply in the future, while the profit margin for pig farming has turned negative due to falling prices [19][20] - The average selling price of listed pig companies in September also saw a decline, with major companies reporting a decrease in sales prices [21][22] Group 3: Industry Analysis - Electric Power Equipment and New Energy - In September, the sales of new energy vehicles in nine European countries reached 307,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 34.7%, with a penetration rate of 31.8% [25][26] - The UK has restarted BEV subsidies, which is expected to boost demand in the coming months, while France has introduced additional subsidies for electric vehicles [26] - The European Parliament's vote to delay tightening carbon emission targets is expected to maintain the growth trend in the electric vehicle market [27] Group 4: Industry Analysis - Banking - The banking sector is experiencing a differentiation in operations as the "funding attributes" enhance, with a notable increase in the contribution of funding business to banks [35][38] - The growth of corporate loans remains strong, particularly in short-term loans, while the demand for long-term financing from both residents and enterprises has not improved significantly [36][37] - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on banks with strong dividend yields and customer advantages in the wealth management era [39] Group 5: Company Analysis - Haiguang Information - The company reported a revenue increase of 54.65% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit growth of 28.56% [41][42] - The company plans to absorb and merge with Zhongke Shuguang to enhance vertical integration and market synergy in the chip and data center infrastructure sectors [43] Group 6: Company Analysis - Zhuhai Guanyu - The company is a leading manufacturer of lithium-ion batteries, with a significant share in consumer battery markets, particularly in laptops and smartphones [45][47] - The company is focusing on advanced technologies such as solid-state batteries and stacking processes to maintain its competitive edge in the AI terminal market [48]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the pig farming industry, highlighting the imbalance between supply and demand, the impact of seasonal factors, and the expected price movements in the near and long term [4][6][14]. Supply Side - The production capacity of breeding sows remains high, with no effective reduction despite long-term profitability in the industry. The industry is expected to face a dual loss situation for piglets and fattening pigs starting from late September [10]. - Even if the culling of sows begins in October, significant supply pressure relief will not occur until after August 2026. The supply may remain excessive until June 2026, depending on the culling pace of the breeding sector [10]. Demand Side - Seasonal demand is anticipated to increase due to the drop in temperatures, with a boost in demand for cured meats in November and December, as well as pre-festival consumption leading up to the Spring Festival [12]. - The absolute low prices may also stimulate consumption, potentially providing a floor for short-term pig prices [12]. Market Outlook - In the near term, low-priced contracts have limited downward space, but there is also no upward momentum, with future movements expected to follow spot market fluctuations [5][14]. - The current contango structure in the futures market indicates that both near-month and long-month contracts have seen significant declines, with the near-month contracts approaching cash flow costs [14]. - The price of live pigs has dropped below 12 yuan/kg, leading to panic selling among some farmers, which has further accelerated the price decline. However, the weight of pigs continues to increase, indicating that short-term capacity clearing is unlikely without a significant demand increase [8][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the price of live pigs has unexpectedly declined, leading to increased pressure on pig farming companies in October 2025. The average sales price of live pigs in September 2025 was 13.10 yuan/kg, down 4.86% month-on-month and 30.90% year-on-year. The slaughter volume in September was 4.5608 million heads, an increase of 5.12% month-on-month and 4.05% year-on-year [14][3][4] - The report indicates that the proportion of large pigs (over 150kg) in the market has decreased, suggesting a tightening supply in the future. As of October 9, 2025, the proportion of large pigs in the slaughter structure was 4.91%, down 0.16 percentage points week-on-week and 0.79 percentage points year-on-year [17][4] - The report notes that the profitability of pig farming has turned from profit to loss in September 2025, with an average loss of 7.27 yuan per head. The breeding stock has decreased by 0.46% month-on-month, indicating further potential for reduction in breeding stock [24][5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the unexpected decline in pig prices and the resulting pressure on pig farming companies. The average sales price of live pigs in September 2025 was 13.10 yuan/kg, reflecting a significant decrease [14][3] - The report also mentions that the planned slaughter volume for October is expected to increase by 5.14% compared to September, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [14][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The proportion of large pigs in the market has decreased, which may lead to a tighter supply in the future. The proportion of pigs over 140kg has remained stable month-on-month [17][4] - The report highlights a short-term scenario of strong supply and weak demand, with the price difference for frozen products declining [19][4] Financial Performance of Companies - The report provides data on the sales performance of listed pig farming companies, with a total of 13.7749 million heads sold in September 2025, an increase of 22.47% year-on-year. However, the average sales price for these companies has decreased [29][6] - Specific companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs reported significant changes in their sales volumes and prices, with some companies experiencing a decline in average sales prices [34][39][45]

----- 广告----- 值得关注的是，此次换届中， 公司正式撤销监事会，由董事会审计委员会行使《公司法》。 治理结构 进一步"扁平化"。截至目前，罗卫国持有公司约3725.18万股股份，占公司总股本的12.84%，系公司实 际控制人。 董监高一年变更3人次，副董事长携2.9亿离场 随着换届完成，史东伟先生、陈庆辉先生不再担任公司董事；包满珠先生、吴冬先生因任期满六年，不 再担任独立董事；汪陈林、汪玲、刘翔不再担任公司监事。高级管理人员任期届满，陈庆辉先生、梅晓 阳女士不再担任公司副总裁，其中梅晓阳女士卸任副总裁职务后担任公司联席总裁。 近一年，天域生 物发生董监高变更3人次。 本次离任的副董事长史东伟，年龄58岁，截至本公告披露日，史东伟先生持有公司 3233.88万股股份， 按当前股价估算市值近2.9亿。陈庆辉先生持有公司 39万股股份。 其实，天域生物控制权调整早有端倪。今年8月27日，天域生物就发布公告，称史东伟已辞去总裁职 务，放弃所持股份表决权，并与罗卫国解除一致行动关系，罗卫国已成为公司唯一实际控制人。 0月14日，天域生物发布公告，宣布完成董事会换届选举。根据公告内容， 实控人罗卫国连任董事 ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 16 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2：样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，15 日生猪主力 2601 合约平开后冲 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on September Pig Production Data Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the pig farming industry, specifically the production and market dynamics of breeding pigs and piglets in China. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Breeding Pig Expansion Trends** The trend of breeding pig expansion is significant, reaching the highest level since 2022, with a 14% increase compared to January 2014 and an 8% increase compared to January 2023, although it is down 6.6% from the peak in January 2021 [1][2] 2. **Sales and Elimination of Breeding Pigs** In the last three months, external sales of breeding pigs have remained stable, with a year-on-year decline of 20% and a cumulative decline of 9%. The elimination rate increased by 5% month-on-month and approximately 40% year-on-year in September [3][4] 3. **Mother Pig Inventory Changes by Scale** In September, the inventory of mother pigs varied by scale: farms with fewer than 5,000 pigs remained stable with a 0.4% increase; farms with 5,000 to 20,000 pigs saw a 0.9% decrease; and large enterprises with over 20,000 pigs experienced a slight decrease of 0.4% [5] 4. **Piglet Inventory Stability** The inventory of piglets has stabilized in the last two months, with only a slight decrease, potentially linked to high mortality rates in July and August [6] 5. **Impact of National Production Control Policies** National policies aimed at controlling production have led to a slight decrease in the number of mother pigs. Despite a target to reduce 1 million mother pigs, the slow market demand has hindered the pace of reduction [7][9] 6. **Current Market Conditions** The market is experiencing an increase in the elimination of mother pigs, with large pig prices losing their advantage, sometimes falling below standard pig prices. This indicates a weak market demand [8] 7. **Future Production Reduction Goals** There is a target to reduce the output of pigs by approximately 5% in 2026 to address supply-demand imbalances, with a focus on reducing the number of mother pigs to control overall output [9][11] 8. **Current Capacity Decrease Trends** The current capacity reduction is just beginning, expected to continue until January, with a potential acceleration if demand improves [12] 9. **Weather Impact on Disease and Production** Recent cooling has led to some minor disease issues, but no severe outbreaks have been reported. However, weather changes pose potential risks to production [13] 10. **Price Trends and Future Expectations** Prices have seen a significant drop due to increased supply and decreased demand, with expectations of a weak rebound if weather conditions improve and demand rises [14][16] 11. **Regional Price Disparities** There have been notable fluctuations in regional price differences, influenced by disease outbreaks and supply-demand relationships, with southern regions experiencing overcapacity [20][21] 12. **Future Capacity Expansion in Southern Regions** There is no specific data on capacity expansion in southern regions, but many enterprises are shifting focus from northern to southern regions for new investments [22] Other Important Insights - The industry is currently facing significant losses, with losses exceeding 100 yuan per head for both fat and piglets, which could lead to a reduction in overall production capacity if sustained [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic live pig market has shown signs of rebound in recent days, with prices stabilizing after a significant decline, although short to medium-term pressures remain evident due to oversupply [1][2][3] Price Trends - The live pig futures price fell over 12% in October, reaching a low of 11,120 yuan/ton, following a decline of 11.36% in September [1][2] - On October 15, the average pig price in Guangdong was reported at 4.98:1, entering a warning zone for excessive decline [2] - The national average pig price saw a slight increase of 0.01 yuan/kg on October 14 and further rose by 0.11 yuan/kg on October 15, surpassing 11 yuan/kg [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Increased supply from breeding farms and insufficient demand have led to a rapid decline in pig prices since September [2] - The market is currently experiencing a supply surplus, with significant outflows from major breeding enterprises [5][7] Market Sentiment and Investment - Recent inflows into livestock breeding ETFs indicate market optimism regarding short-term price stabilization and long-term industry potential [5] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing policy measures aimed at controlling production capacity and reducing weights will support a long-term price increase [7][9] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to enter a capacity reduction cycle, with potential price increases anticipated in the second half of next year [7][9] - Short-term price pressures are likely to persist due to high production levels and reduced consumer demand post-holidays [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral outlook for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, with a focus on the performance of specific companies within the industry [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the performance of 22 key listed companies in the agricultural sector, with an expected 47% year-on-year drop in combined earnings for the first three quarters of 2025. However, certain segments, such as egg production and animal health, are expected to show notable growth [4][5]. - The pig farming sector is experiencing losses due to falling prices, with the average price of live pigs dropping to 13.9 yuan/kg, a 28% decrease year-on-year. This has led to a significant decline in profits for major pig farming companies [4][5]. - In the poultry sector, while white chicken prices are stabilizing, yellow chicken is seeing seasonal demand increases. The average price for commodity broiler chicks is reported at 2.67 yuan/chick, down 13% year-on-year [4]. - The animal health segment is witnessing a recovery in demand driven by improved cash flow for downstream customers, with a 6.73% increase in vaccine approvals from July to September 2025 [4]. - The pet food industry is maintaining high growth domestically, with online sales growth of 7% in Q3 2025, despite a decline in export performance due to tariffs [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Pig Farming - The average profit for self-bred and purchased pig farming is reported at 43.2 and -116.7 yuan per head respectively, indicating a significant disparity in profitability among companies [4][5]. - Major pig farming company Muyuan Foods is expected to report a 50% year-on-year decline in net profit for Q3 2025 [4]. Poultry Farming - The report notes a seasonal recovery in yellow chicken prices, while white chicken prices remain under pressure due to oversupply [4]. - The average price for commodity egg-laying chicks is reported at 3.24 yuan/chick, reflecting a 4% year-on-year decrease [4]. Animal Health - The demand for veterinary vaccines is recovering, with a notable increase in sales driven by improved cash flow in the farming sector [4]. - The prices of veterinary raw materials have increased, with prices for certain antibiotics rising by 34% and 26% year-on-year respectively [4]. Pet Food - Domestic pet food companies are expected to continue high growth rates, with specific companies like Guibao and Petty showing year-on-year profit increases of 2% and flat performance respectively [4][5].

国家生猪大数据生猪合作专题 国家生猪大数据中心 X 西南期货有限公司 生猪季度数据解读与展望 一、能繁母猪存栏量（8 月 4038 万头，同比+0.05%） 解读：根据统计局和农业农村部联合发布的全国能繁母猪存栏量 显示，7-8 月能繁母猪平均存栏量为 4040 万头，同比增长 0.04%，处 于近 10 年同期偏高水平。2025 年 8 月底，能繁母猪存栏 4038 万头， 同比增长 0.05%。距离正常保有量上限（3900 万头）高出 3.5%，进 入高位低波动区间。三季度仔猪外售与育肥猪出栏利润皆出现快速下 滑，加之主管部门加强减产降重指引，期间能繁母猪微幅下降为主， 但局部中型育肥场存在扩充自繁现象，导致产业总体能繁母猪存栏降 幅有限。随着近年规模场持续更新原种，提高繁育效率，能繁母猪的 msy 持续增长；但 2025 年四季度开始，繁殖效率增长速度或同比放 缓，故而，2025 年四季度能繁母猪存栏量的同比变化趋势与程度， 或能为 2026 年三季度的出栏量同比变化情况形成较为明确的指引。 展望：四季度来看，仔猪外售利润或进一步收窄，极端阶段或呈 亏损状态。三季度政策指引加之四季度进入亏损的双重压力， ...