该行上调对中石油明年及后年税后利润预测1%，H股目标价由8港元上调至8.5港元，重申H股"买入"投 资评级，基于预测今年6厘股息率。 美银发表报告指，中国石油股份首三季税后利润按年跌5%至1260亿元，单计第三季按年跌4%至423亿 元，按季升14%胜预期，受显著增长的天然气销售利润推动。首三季资本开支按年跌5%至1770亿元， 为全年指引的68%。 ...

港股三大指数呈现低开低走行情，恒生科技指数跌幅最大，午间收跌1.91%，恒生指数跌0.89%险守 26000点大关，国企指数跌1.17%。市场总体偏弱势，作为市场风向标的大型科技股集体走低，其中， 阿里巴巴、腾讯跌幅明显，半导体股、中资券商股、汽车股、重型机械股跌幅较大，芯片龙头中芯国际 跌超5%。另外，生物医药股在弱势拉升，三生制药大涨超10%领衔创新药概念股上涨，教育股、旅游 股、石油股部分活跃，中国石油绩后涨约2%。(格隆汇) ...

中美关系对石油软实力的影响。中美领导人在韩国会晤后达成的协议被视为紧张局势的降温而非结构性改变，这种"有限缓和"对石油市场产生复杂影响。一 是短期情绪提振。投资者将公告协议视为紧张局势的降温，10月30日国际油价微幅走高。二是长期不确定性。缺乏结构性改变意味着地缘政治风险溢价仍将 持续，限制油价上行空间。三是规则博弈延续。中美贸易争端本质是国际规则主导权之争，直接影响全球能源贸易格局的稳定性。 美联储政策与石油金融属性。美联储10月如期降息并暗示可能是今年最后一次降息，这一决策通过以下渠道影响石油软实力。一是美元计价效应。降息预期 减弱支撑美元指数，间接压制以美元计价的原油价格。二是需求预期管理。美联储对经济前景的谨慎态度强化市场对能源需求疲软的担忧。三是资本流动影 响。利率政策变化影响能源领域投资决策，塑造长期供应预期。 邓正红软实力表示，中美领导人在韩国会晤之后，投资者评估中美贸易争端潜在休战可能性，石油软实力走势艰难，周四（10月30日）国际油价微幅走高。 截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油12月期货结算价每桶涨0.09元至60.57美元，涨幅0.15%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油12月期货结 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price is expected to continue oscillating. The uncertainty in the crude oil market lies in the supply - side structural contradictions caused by sanctions, but during the current off - season of demand, the overall conflict is not obvious, and the impact on prices is relatively mild [1]. - The absolute prices of fuel oil (FU and LU), asphalt (BU), polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the fluctuations of oil prices under the influence of macro - factors [3][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the WTI December contract rose 0.09 dollars to 60.57 dollars/barrel (0.15% increase), the Brent December contract rose 0.08 dollars to 65.00 dollars/barrel (0.12% increase), and the SC2512 closed at 461.4 yuan/barrel, down 1.1 yuan/barrel (0.28% decrease). The meeting between Chinese and US leaders and trade achievements have positive impacts, but sanctions on Russian producers and potential OPEC+ production increase add uncertainties [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2601) fell 1.43% to 2751 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2601) rose 0.62% to 3255 yuan/ton. The Asian low - sulfur market structure has weakened due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market is expected to remain stable [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2601) fell 0.4% to 3254 yuan/ton. The supply pressure will ease in early November, and there are still construction rush expectations in some markets [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4570 yuan/ton, down 1.42%; EG2601 closed at 4032 yuan/ton, down 1.66%. The cost support of PX and TA has weakened, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. There is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for EG in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) fell 225 yuan/ton to 15400 yuan/ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 195 yuan/ton to 12525 yuan/ton. The raw material prices of rubber are firm, demand is okay, and the postponement of tariff increase may improve demand expectations [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply in the domestic market has recovered to a high level, and overseas Iranian plants will be restricted by winter gas rationing. Although the arrival volume has decreased due to sanctions, the short - term port supply is still relatively large, and methanol is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The short - term production will remain at a high level, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The short - term rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening, and polyolefin prices are expected to enter an oscillatory phase [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply remains at a high - level oscillation, domestic demand has slowed down, and exports are expected to be weak due to Indian anti - dumping policies and Sino - US trade frictions. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under high - inventory pressure [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on October 30 and 29, 2025, as well as the quantiles of the latest basis rates in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in Busan, South Korea, and the positive results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations have alleviated concerns about the decline in economic activities caused by tariffs and trade wars [13]. - Some Indian refiners have suspended purchasing Russian oil after the US blacklisted two major Russian producers last week, but Indian Oil said it would "never stop" buying Russian crude. Traders are closely watching the next moves of Russian oil buyers [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][16][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are charts presenting the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., over different time periods [33][38][40]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [48][50][53]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: There are charts depicting the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc. [63][66][71]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of products like LLDPE and PP [72]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Analyst for Crude Oil, etc.), Di Yilin (Analyst for Natural Rubber, etc.), and Peng Haibo (Analyst for Methanol, etc.), with their respective educational backgrounds, honors, and professional capabilities introduced [77][78][79]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, with a postal code of 200127 [82].

原油日报 | 2025-10-31 中美会谈结果符合预期，油价波动有限 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所12月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨9美分，收于每桶60.57美元，涨幅为0.15%；12月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨8美分，收于每桶65.00美元，涨幅为0.12%。SC原油主力合约收跌0.24%，报461元/桶。 2、 沙特财政部10月30日表示，随着支出增加和收入下降，该国第三季度财政赤字扩大至885亿里亚尔（236亿美 元），较上一季度增长160%。赤字扩大之际，石油收入下降0.1%至1,508亿里亚尔，原因是欧佩克逐步解除减产措 施对油价造成压力。同时，沙特继续推进其"2030愿景"计划，以实现经济多元化。作为全球最大原油出口国，沙 特本季度总收入同比下降约13%至2,699亿里亚尔，其中1,191亿里亚尔来自非石油产业。公共支出同比增长6%，达 到3,584亿里亚尔。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 俄罗斯第二大石油生产商卢克石油已同意将其大部分国际资产出售给瑞士大宗商品交易商贡渥。上周，美国 对该公司实施了制裁。卢克石油10月30日表示，公司已接受贡渥对旗下子公司卢克石油国际（L ...

研究中心能化团队 2025/10/31 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- 2月差 | WTI-BREN T | DUBAI-B RT（EFS | NYMEX RB OB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/24 | 61.50 | 65.94 | 65.54 | - | 0.74 | -4.44 | 0.25 | 192.27 | 14.81 | 240.31 | 34.99 | | 2025/10/27 | 61.31 | 66.38 | 65.36 | -0.11 | 0.72 | -5.07 | 0.49 | 192.04 | 14.28 | 243.61 | 35.94 | | 2025/10/28 | 60.15 | 64.40 | 64.94 | -0.08 | ...

公募基金方面，本期较上一季未再披露的公募基金共计9个，主要包括中信保诚多策略混合(LOF)A、中 信保诚景气优选混合A、中信保诚安鑫回报债券A、汇添富中证油气资源ETF、光大保德信量化股票A 等。 外资态度来看，本期较上一季度新披露的外资机构有 1 家 ，即MORGAN STANLEY & CO. INTERNATIONAL PLC.。 2025年10月31日，和顺石油(603353.SH)发布2025年第三季报。截至2025年10月30日，共有4个机构投资 者披露持有和顺石油A股股份，合计持股量达7580.84万股，占和顺石油总股本的44.10%。其中，机构 投资者包括湖南和顺投资发展有限公司、深圳大华信安私募证券基金管理企业(有限合伙)-信安成长一号 私募证券投资基金、MORGAN STANLEY & CO. INTERNATIONAL PLC.、深圳大华信安私募证券基金 管理企业(有限合伙)-信安成长核心价值私募证券投资基金，机构投资者合计持股比例达44.10%。相较 于上一季度，机构持股比例合计上涨了0.36个百分点。 ...

巴西不仅是全球第七大人口国、第十大经济体,更是名 副其实的"世界粮仓"与资源宝库: 】 农业强国:大豆出口占全球近60%,咖啡、蔗糖等多种作 物出口位居世界第一 资源大国:铁矿石产量全球第二,石油探明储量达149亿 铜矿占全球90% 桶, + & 内需驱动:消费占GDP比重超过85%,人口结构年轻,消 费意愿强烈 11,700 铜矿产量 天然气配送 149 全球占比 运输管道 油探明储量 公里 图:巴西大豆出口占全球近60% 图:巴西铁矿石原产量位居世界第二 图:巴西多项农作物产量份额占全球第 Parti 30% 1400 19% 20% ENWANHONGYUA dsanc 美之星的投资机遇 LT 尽在申万宏源 星握全球会 DJTO t 人 大宗商品:巴西国家石油、淡水河谷等全球龙头聚集; l 公用事业与工业:反映巴西扎实的工业基础。 前十大成分股涵盖金融、能源、矿业等领域巨头,是把握巴 西经济增长的优质载体。 GYUAN ( HENWAN 169 图:消费支出占GDP比重超85% 图:消费支出持续拉动经济增速 图:农业板块重要性较高 巴西GDP实际增速拆解(%) 巴西市场GDP分项贡献(李调数据) 巴西人 ...

美国近期对俄罗斯两家石油公司进行制裁。同时在美国的压力下，印度HMEL公司表示，已经暂停进一步购买俄罗斯的原油。投资者需要重点关注俄罗斯在 欧美制裁下，其原油产量以及出口量是否下降。 供给端看，欧佩克以及美国等原油产油国将市场份额视为其战略重心，故而产油国们延续增产的政策将是大概率事件。美国的原油产量升至年内高位，欧佩 克大概率在12月份延续增产的政策。 百利好智升研究资深分析师辰宇认为，黄金在美元信用缺失的逻辑下，维持牛市不变。近期避险降温以及美联储内部分歧将令金价承压。 技术面：日在线，连续三个交易日行情在62日均线获得支撑，收较长下影线k线，黄金价格有望重回涨势。日内关注上方4085美元一线压力，下方关注3996 美元一线支撑。 黄金小时图 原油方面： 黄金方面： 近期美联储的鹰派降息，打压市场对美联储后续进一步宽松的乐观预期，短期金价承压。 需求端看，当前处于需求淡季，但是全球最大的两个经济体贸易磋商取得成果，有利于改善原油需求前景，短期将为油价提供支撑。 另外，中美两国元首在韩国会晤，美方将暂停实施9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则一年；中方将暂停实施10月9日公布的相关出口管制等措施一年。 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 10 月 31 日星期五 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资 ...