Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the core contradiction throughout the upstream, midstream, and downstream industries is the "structural gap during the new - old kinetic energy conversion period." In the first half of the year, the industry was affected by external uncertainties, with intensified internal differentiation, and overall prosperity relied on policy support. In the second half of the year, with the "two new" policies further boosting domestic demand and upgrading the industrial structure, the industry is expected to achieve a systematic leap from "quantity" to "quality" expansion [2][7]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - **Upstream Materials**: In H1 2025, raw material prices were under pressure due to weak demand and Sino - US trade conflicts, showing significant differentiation. In H2, the structural differentiation will continue. Enterprises should focus on capacity elimination, tariff negotiations, and climate risks [8]. - **Midstream Manufacturing**: In H1 2025, it presented a differentiated pattern of "traditional under pressure, high - tech doing well." In H2, policies will support both demand and supply - side reforms, and traditional manufacturing is expected to break through cost dilemmas through intelligent and digital transformation [8]. - **Downstream Consumption**: In H1 2025, it showed a "weak recovery" pattern. In H2, the consumption market will continue to be structurally differentiated, and the recovery highly depends on policy implementation efficiency and business model innovation [9][10]. Upstream: Raw Material Price Fluctuations - **H1 2025 Situation**: Raw material prices were under pressure. Metal mining showed a divergence between black and non - ferrous metals; chemical raw materials had multi - directional fluctuations; energy sources like crude oil and coal were more differentiated; most agricultural products were at near - five - year lows [8][15]. - **H2 2025 Outlook**: The price differentiation will continue. Traditional raw materials' rebound depends on supply - side reforms and policy support, while emerging demand - driven products are more resilient. Enterprises should focus on capacity elimination, tariff reviews, and extreme weather [15][16]. Midstream: Short - term Stabilization, Continued New - Old Kinetic Energy Conversion - **Overall Situation**: In H1 2025, the manufacturing industry was affected by external factors, with traditional manufacturing under pressure and high - tech manufacturing supported by policies. After the tariff war, there was short - term stabilization, and both external and internal demands recovered to some extent [43][53]. - **Traditional Manufacturing**: In H1 2025, profits declined due to over - capacity and weak demand. In H2, policies will expand to more traditional manufacturing sectors, promoting transformation and efficiency improvement [59][75]. - **High - tech Manufacturing**: In H1 2025, it recovered significantly compared to the beginning of the year, benefiting from strong policy support. In H2, it is expected to continue to improve [69][75]. Downstream: Intensified Retail Differentiation, Weak Real Estate Recovery - **Retail Industry**: In H1 2025, online e - commerce grew due to the "trade - in" policy, while traditional physical retail was under pressure. In H2, the differentiation will continue, with emerging formats having growth potential and traditional retail relying on policy and innovation [82][93]. - **Leasing Industry**: In H1 2025, it was in a downturn. In H2, the "price - for - volume" trend will continue, and the de - stocking of commercial land will continue [92][93]. - **Real Estate Industry**: In H1 2025, it achieved "weak stabilization" under policy support. In H2, it is expected to continue to recover slowly with further policy optimization and improved supply - demand balance [99][115].

中国贸促会新闻发言人王琳洁表示，4月2日，美国政府以存在贸易逆差和非关税壁垒等问题为由实 施"对等关税"，以及当月实施的多项限制措施，是4月份全球经贸摩擦指数持续走高的主要原因。其 中，全球进出口关税措施指数同比提高89个点，涉华进出口关税措施指数同比提高131个点。美国当月 的全球经贸摩擦指数同比增长65个点，进出口关税措施指数同比增长199个点，涉华进出口关税措施指 数同比增长200个点。 中国贸促会27日发布的数据显示，4月全球经贸摩擦指数为131，进一步走高。全球经贸摩擦措施涉及金 额同比大幅上升37.6%，环比上升16%。 从行业指数看，在监测范围内13个主要行业中，经贸摩擦措施的冲突点聚焦于电子、运输设备、轻工、 化工、机械设备、医药、有色金属和农业，其中电子行业经贸摩擦指数居首。 （文章来源：新华财经） 从国别指数看，在监测范围内的20个国家（地区）中，美国、日本和印度的全球经贸摩擦指数位居前 三。美国全球经贸摩擦措施涉及金额最多，连续10个月居首。 从分项指数看，在监测范围内的20个国家（地区）共发布105项进出口关税措施，同比增长483%，环比 增长250%；发布进出口限制措施24项，同比增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant escalation of global trade frictions due to recent U.S. tariff policies, with a notable increase in the global trade friction index and related measures impacting various industries and countries [1][2][6]. Group 1: Global Trade Friction Index - In April, the global trade friction index rose to 131, with related measures involving an amount that increased by 37.6% year-on-year and 16% month-on-month [2]. - The global import and export tariff measures index surged by 89 points year-on-year, with the China-related portion increasing by 131 points [4]. - The U.S. trade friction index increased by 65 points year-on-year, with its import and export tariff measures index skyrocketing by 199 points, and the China-related tariff measures index rising by 200 points [4]. Group 2: Country-Specific Observations - Among 20 countries monitored, the U.S., Japan, and India have the highest trade friction indices, with the U.S. being the largest country in terms of trade restriction measures for 10 consecutive months [7]. - The European Union saw a 79.3% month-on-month increase in tariff and restriction measures, while Canada and India experienced a 100% year-on-year increase in related measures [8]. Group 3: Industry Impact - Thirteen major industries, including electronics, transportation equipment, light industry, chemicals, machinery, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture, have become focal points of trade frictions, with the electronics sector experiencing the highest friction index [8]. - A total of 105 tariff measures were introduced across the monitored countries, marking a 483% year-on-year increase and a 250% month-on-month increase [8]. Group 4: China's Foreign Trade Resilience - Despite external pressures, China's foreign trade has shown strong resilience, with the total number of various certificates issued by the trade promotion system reaching 639,400 in May, a year-on-year increase of 12.51% [9]. - The value of preferential certificates issued by the trade promotion system amounted to $7.911 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.05% [9]. Group 5: U.S.-China Business Relations - A recent survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China indicates that 67% of member companies have no plans to relocate, affirming China as a primary investment destination [11]. - The ongoing cooperation between U.S. and Chinese businesses is emphasized, with significant participation from U.S. companies in upcoming trade events, indicating a continued interest in collaboration despite trade tensions [12][13].

Group 1 - The main reason for the increase in the global trade friction index in April is the series of tariff policies implemented by the US government, which significantly escalated global trade tensions [1][3] - In April, the global trade friction index rose to 131, with related measures involving an amount that increased by 37.6% year-on-year and 16% month-on-month [1] - The US has been the country with the largest amount of trade restriction measures for ten consecutive months, with the electronics industry being the most affected sector [3] Group 2 - The number of tariff measures implemented by monitored countries increased by 483% year-on-year and 250% month-on-month, with 105 new measures introduced [3] - The import and export restriction measures also saw a year-on-year increase of 60%, with 24 new measures reported [3] - The trade friction index for China from 19 countries/regions was recorded at 153, indicating a high level of trade friction, particularly in the electronics, light industry, and machinery sectors [4] Group 3 - Despite external pressures, China's foreign trade has shown resilience, with a significant increase in the issuance of various certificates by the trade promotion system [5] - The value of preferential certificates issued by the trade promotion system reached $7.911 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.05% [5] - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) certificates also saw a year-on-year increase of 20.22% in value [5] Group 4 - A recent survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China indicated that 67% of member companies have no plans to relocate, highlighting China as a primary investment destination [6] - The number of American exhibitors at the upcoming trade fair is expected to increase by 15%, indicating continued interest in the Chinese market [6] - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade has facilitated numerous exchanges and cooperation projects between Chinese and American businesses over the past 20 years [7]

Core Insights - The global trade friction index for April shows a significant year-on-year increase of 37.6% in the amount involved [1] - The United States, Japan, and India rank as the top three countries in terms of global trade friction index [1] - The U.S. has the highest amount of trade friction measures, maintaining the top position for ten consecutive months [1] Industry Insights - Among 13 major industries monitored, trade friction conflicts are concentrated in electronics, transportation equipment, light industry, chemicals, machinery, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture [1] - The electronics industry has the highest trade friction index among the monitored sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yunjigroup (001288.SZ) announced a share reduction plan by its controlling shareholder's concerted actor, Huazhi Investment, intending to sell up to 2,291,800 shares within three months starting from July 15, 2025, due to funding needs [1] Group 1: Share Reduction Plan - Huazhi Investment holds 14,000,000 shares, representing 5.9584% of the total share capital, and plans to reduce its holdings by 0.9754% [1] - The share reduction will occur through block trades or centralized bidding [1] Group 2: Financial Overview - Yunjigroup's IPO raised a total of 5.82 billion yuan, with a net amount of 5.18 billion yuan after expenses [2] - The company issued 7,300,000 convertible bonds in 2023, raising 730 million yuan, with a net amount of approximately 720.4 million yuan after deducting fees [2] Group 3: Dividend Distribution - The company has distributed a total of 1.14 billion yuan in dividends over four years [3] - The 2024 annual profit distribution plan includes a cash dividend of 2.50 yuan per 10 shares and a capital reserve conversion of 4 shares for every 10 shares held [3] - The 2023 annual profit distribution plan also includes a cash dividend of 2.50 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 39.57 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Zigong Transportation Machinery Group Co., Ltd. has issued convertible bonds to unspecified investors, raising a net amount of 720.397 million yuan for various projects, with a focus on expanding its international market presence and enhancing production capabilities [2][21][20]. Section 1: Bond Overview - The company has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission to issue convertible bonds, with a total issuance amount not exceeding 730 million yuan [2][3]. - The bonds have a face value of 100 yuan each, with a total of 7.3 million bonds issued [3][4]. - The bond interest rates are structured to increase over six years, starting from 0.20% in the first year to 3.20% in the sixth year [4][5]. Section 2: Financial Performance - As of December 31, 2024, the company reported total assets of 4.912 billion yuan, a 38.75% increase from the previous year, and net assets of 2.193 billion yuan, up 5.69% [19]. - The company achieved a revenue of 1.536 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 45.80% year-on-year growth, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 139.937 million yuan, a 44.22% increase [19][20]. - The increase in revenue and profit is attributed to the expansion of international business, which accounted for 67.58% of total revenue, and strategic acquisitions to enhance the company's product offerings [19][20]. Section 3: Use of Proceeds - The raised funds will be allocated to various projects, including the development of energy-efficient and intelligent production lines, with a total planned investment of 795.89 million yuan [16][21]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company has utilized 306.704 million yuan of the raised funds for project investments [22]. Section 4: Company Background - Sichuan Zigong Transportation Machinery Group specializes in the research, design, production, and sales of energy-efficient conveying machinery, positioning itself as a supplier of material handling solutions [18]. - The company has established a strong brand presence and market share in the domestic market, actively pursuing international opportunities in line with national policies [18][19].

Export Changes - Since Trump's administration, China's export structure has adjusted, with a decrease in the share of exports to the U.S. and an increase to ASEAN and Africa, while exports to the EU have rebounded after two years of decline[11] - In the first five months of 2025, China's exports to the U.S. accounted for approximately 11.9%, down 2.7 percentage points from 2024, while exports to ASEAN, Africa, and the EU increased to 17.8%, 5.6%, and 14.7% respectively[11] - By the end of 2024, China's export share of global exports was about 15.0%, rising to approximately 15.4% in Q1 2025, indicating a recovery in global market share[11] High-Frequency Tracking - Monitoring port cargo throughput can effectively reflect changes in China's export volume, showing a correlation with historical export trends[21] - South Korea's export growth is a key indicator of global demand, with a 5.4% increase recorded in early June 2025, suggesting a potential recovery in global demand[43] - Tracking the number of container ships from China to the U.S. provides insights into direct export trends, with a notable recovery in June but still weaker than March levels[43] Future Export Outlook - In an optimistic scenario, if the fentanyl tariffs are lifted and the exemption for reciprocal tariffs continues until the end of the year, the annual export growth rate could reach approximately 3.4%[57] - Conversely, under a baseline scenario, the annual export growth rate is expected to be around 2.1%, with risks of a decline in Q4 due to high base effects[57] - The end of the 90-day exemption period for tariffs on July 9, 2025, poses uncertainties for future export demand, as the U.S. may maintain its current tariff framework[54]

Economic Overview - In May, external demand showed signs of recovery while internal demand remained mixed, supported by policy measures and holiday effects [3][5] - The industrial added value in May grew by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly down from 6.1% in April, but still above 5% [5][7] - Service sector production index increased by 6.2% year-on-year, driven by information technology and retail sectors [9] Production Insights - The production recovery was evident, with industrial added value showing a month-on-month increase of 0.61%, higher than the previous month [5][7] - Export-oriented industries and those benefiting from favorable policies exhibited divergent performance, with transportation equipment and electrical machinery facing significant declines [7] - The automotive sector saw a notable rebound, with production growth increasing by 2.4 percentage points, attributed to policy incentives and market demand [7] Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth in May reached 6.4%, with significant contributions from the "old-for-new" policy and pre-holiday promotions [13][14] - Online retail sales surged by 11.5%, reflecting the impact of early promotions and policy support [14] - Categories benefiting from the "old-for-new" initiative, such as home appliances and communication equipment, experienced substantial growth rates of 53% and 33% respectively [14] Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.9% year-on-year in May, marking a decline from 3.6% in April [17][18] - Manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments showed weakening trends, with real estate investment declining by 12.0% [17][21] - Infrastructure investment requires acceleration in physical work volume formation, with current construction PMI readings indicating slower growth [18] Real Estate Market - The real estate market showed mixed signals, with sales area and sales revenue declining by 3.3% and 6.0% year-on-year respectively [21] - New housing starts and completion areas also saw significant declines, although the rate of decline has narrowed [21] - The demand side of the real estate market is showing signs of weakening, necessitating ongoing policy support [21]

Core Insights - The U.S. government's "manufacturing reshoring" policy is primarily driven by tariffs to encourage companies to relocate production back to the U.S. [1] - A report from Bank of America indicates that multinational companies are now prioritizing the avoidance of geopolitical risks over minimizing costs when restructuring global supply chains [1][2] - Despite legislative efforts to promote manufacturing return, only 20% of analysts predict a "large-scale reshoring" of U.S. manufacturing, with 40% advocating for a faster return of capital-intensive industries [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Trends - Companies are increasingly inclined to shift production to friendly countries or nearby markets, with Vietnam, India, Thailand, and Mexico being the main beneficiaries due to their geographical and political advantages [1][2] - Nearly half of the analysts believe that high tariff policies will not significantly impact corporate decision-making, as companies prioritize supply chain flexibility and risk diversification [2] - The 2025 reshoring index has dropped by 311 basis points compared to the previous year, indicating a decline in the manufacturing reshoring trend [2] Group 2: Employment and Economic Impact - The U.S. manufacturing employment index has been declining, currently accounting for only 8% of total employment, which reflects the challenges of high labor costs and a shortage of qualified workers [1] - Despite significant capital investment in the U.S., the manufacturing output growth over the past year was only 1%, highlighting a gap between announced reshoring plans and actual production capacity [2]