阳光电源（300274.SZ）：逆变器+ 储能出货持续增长，关税影响可控 ——2024 年年报及 25 年一季报业绩点评 看好公司主业长期发展。1）公司强化电力电子、构网支撑等技术前瞻性研究， 凭借低成本创新能力，不断推出性价比优势突出的电能变换产品，公司已建立 的渠道、品牌、产品力壁垒，构成了竞争护城河。2）公司发力光风储电氢多 个赛道，在光伏逆变器领域公司积累的技术、渠道等方面的协同将支持各项主 业共同发展，多点开花。 盈利预测：预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 118.74/135.87/155.41 亿元，EPS 分别为 5.73/6.55/7.50 元，当前股价对应 2025-2027 年 PE 值分别 为 10、9 和 8 倍。维持"推荐"评级。 风险提示：行业贸易壁垒增加；下游需求或不及预期；行业竞争加剧。 财务指标预测 财务要点：公司 24 年全年实现营业收入 778.57 亿，同比增长 7.76%，实现归 母净利 110.36 亿元，同比增长 16.92%。25 年 Q1 实现营业收入 190.36 亿元， 同比增长 50.92%，实现归母净利 38.26 亿元，同比增长 8 ...

证券研究报告 锦浪科技 (300763 CH) 去库影响需求，电站业务表现亮眼 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 29 日│中国内地 | 电力设备与新能源 | 公司 24 年收入 65.42 亿元，同比+7.23%，归母净利 6.91 亿元，同比 -11.32%，扣非净利 6.37 亿元，同比-18.94%，归母净利低于我们此前 11.55 亿的预期，主要系海外光储去库影响需求；25Q1 收入 15.18 亿元，同比 +8.65%，归母净利 1.95 亿元，同/环比+860%/+774%，主要系电站收入同 比提升。公司位列逆变器第一梯队产品力突出，维持"增持"评级。 24Q4 业绩受去库拖累，25Q1 电站收入拉动增长 公司 24Q4 收入 13.81 亿元，同/环比-5.40%/-23.57%，归母净利 0.22 亿 元，同/环比-19.99%/-92.96%，主要系海外去库拖累。公司 24Q4 毛利率/ 净利率达 23.72%/1.61%，环比-12.71/-15.91pct，24Q4 期间费用率达 21.78%， ...

Core Viewpoint - Gotion High-Tech (688390) reported a significant increase in revenue for Q1 2025, with total operating income reaching 1.882 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.13%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders narrowed to -28.03 million yuan, reflecting a 2.75% improvement year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - Total operating revenue for Q1 2025 was 1.882 billion yuan, up 67.13% from 1.126 billion yuan in Q1 2024 [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was -28.03 million yuan, compared to -28.82 million yuan in Q1 2024, showing a 2.75% improvement [1] - Gross margin decreased to 19.41%, down 29.33% year-on-year, while net margin improved to -0.57%, a 66.62% increase year-on-year [1] - Total expenses (selling, administrative, and financial) amounted to 221 million yuan, accounting for 11.72% of revenue, a decrease of 31.57% year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share remained at -0.12 yuan, with operating cash flow per share improving to -1.04 yuan, a 74.68% increase year-on-year [1] Balance Sheet Highlights - Cash and cash equivalents increased to 1.112 billion yuan, a 22.58% rise from 907 million yuan [1] - Accounts receivable rose significantly to 1.117 billion yuan, up 75.19% from 637 million yuan [1] - Interest-bearing debt surged to 1.5 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 240.29% from 441 million yuan [1] - Net asset value per share decreased to 11.25 yuan, down 34.40% year-on-year from 17.15 yuan [1] Market Position and Investor Sentiment - The company has a low return on invested capital (ROIC) of 0.72%, indicating weak capital returns in recent years [1] - Analysts project a revenue of 324 million yuan for 2025, with an average earnings per share estimate of 1.33 yuan [2] - Several funds have increased their holdings in Gotion High-Tech, with HSBC Jintrust Low Carbon Pioneer Stock A being the largest holder, managing 3.853 billion yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral with a target price of RMB 43.30, indicating a potential upside of 5.5% from the current price of RMB 41.05 [1][4][11]. Core Insights - The company's performance has been below expectations, with a significant increase in contract liabilities suggesting a potential recovery in future performance. The European market's slow recovery has impacted the company's results, but strong competitiveness in products remains evident [2][7]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 6.738 billion, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, with a net loss expected at RMB 62 million, which aligns with preliminary earnings reports but is below prior expectations [7][13]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards by 72% and 42% respectively, reflecting the challenges faced in the current market environment [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 7.353 billion in 2023, RMB 6.738 billion in 2024, RMB 8.022 billion in 2025, RMB 8.945 billion in 2026, and RMB 10.508 billion in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 56.1% in 2023 followed by a decline in 2024 [3][13]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of RMB 62 million in 2024 to RMB 170 million in 2025, and further to RMB 457 million in 2026, with a projected net profit of RMB 787 million in 2027 [3][13]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 3.52 in 2023, dropping to a loss of RMB 0.25 in 2024, and recovering to RMB 0.70 in 2025, with a long-term growth trajectory expected thereafter [3][15]. Market Performance - The company’s stock has seen a 52-week high of RMB 77.39 and a low of RMB 37.56, with a current market capitalization of approximately RMB 6.52 billion [6][11]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 5.51 million shares, indicating a reasonable level of market activity [6]. Segment Performance - The domestic business has shown a revenue increase of 58% to RMB 4.69 billion, while the high-margin European business has seen a decline in revenue to RMB 0.94 billion, primarily due to increased costs and lower sales [7][8]. - The company has achieved a significant increase in contract liabilities, reaching a historical high of RMB 4.4 billion, which is expected to support future revenue recovery [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral with a target price of RMB 43.30, indicating a potential upside of 5.5% from the current price of RMB 41.05 [1][4][11]. Core Insights - The company's performance has been below expectations, with a significant increase in contract liabilities suggesting a potential recovery in future performance. The European market's slow recovery has impacted the company's results, but strong competitiveness in products remains evident [2][7]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 6.738 billion, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, with a net loss expected at RMB 62 million, which aligns with preliminary earnings reports but is below prior expectations [3][7]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards by 72% and 42% respectively, reflecting the challenges faced in the current market environment [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 7.353 billion in 2023, RMB 6.738 billion in 2024, RMB 8.022 billion in 2025, RMB 8.945 billion in 2026, and RMB 10.508 billion in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 56.1% in 2023 followed by a decline in 2024 [3][13]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of RMB 62 million in 2024 to RMB 170 million in 2025, with a projected increase to RMB 457 million in 2026 and RMB 787 million in 2027 [3][13]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be RMB 3.52 in 2023, a loss of RMB 0.25 in 2024, and then recovering to RMB 0.70 in 2025, RMB 1.88 in 2026, and RMB 3.25 in 2027 [3][15]. Market Performance - The company’s stock has a 52-week high of RMB 77.39 and a low of RMB 37.56, with a current market capitalization of approximately RMB 6.52 billion [6][11]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 5.51 million shares, indicating a relatively active trading environment [6].

证券研究报告 上能电气 (300827 CH) 海外拓展提振盈利，未来需求可期 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 28 日│中国内地 | 电力设备与新能源 | 公司 24 年收入 47.73 亿元，同比-3.2%，归母净利 4.19 亿元，同比+46.5%， 归母净利低于我们此前 5.03 亿的预期，主要系光伏逆变器国内地面电站出 货承压。25Q1 收入 8.31 亿元，同比+16.8%，归母净利 0.88 亿元，同比 +71.6%，归母净利低于我们此前 1.40 亿预期，主要系中东储能 PCS 竞争 加剧+海外订单单价偏低。公司产品谱系加速拓展，国内外业务双轮驱动， 亚非拉、欧洲出海业务有望贡献增量，我们维持"买入"评级。 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 (人民币百万) | 4,933 | 4,773 | 7,097 | 8,488 | 10,152 | | +/-% ...

2024 年受锂电池原材料价格下降以及行业竞争加剧等影响，储能系统及PCS 价格均大幅下降，地面储 能系统、PCS 主流产品价格降幅分别约45%/30%。根据CNESA统计，公司连续四年位居国内储能PCS 出货量排名第二位；储能系统方面，公司重点推进大储及海外市场开拓，推进户用及工商业储能系统等 全场景覆盖。 事件 盈利预测及投资建议 2025 年4 月23 日，上能电气发布2024 年报及2025 年一季报。2024 年公司实现营业收入47.7 亿元，同比 减少3.2%，实现归母净利润4.2 亿元，同比增长46.5%，实现销售毛利率22.9%，同比提升3.7pct，海外 光储业务快速拓展，公司盈利水平实现结构性显著提升。 2025Q1 公司实现营业收入8.3 亿元，同比增长16.8%，实现归母净利润0.9 亿元，同比增长71.6%，实现 销售毛利率24.3%，同比提升0.7pct，环比提升5.7pct。 逆变器业务稳健经营 2024 年公司光伏逆变器业务实现营业收入27.5 亿元，同比减少4.5%，实现毛利率22.6%，同比提升 5.1pct，盈利水平有所提升，实现光伏逆变器销量25.1GW，同比增长7.0 ...

Group 1: Durable Consumer Goods Industry - Companies reported an average of 35% of revenue from exports to China and 7% from exports to the U.S. [2] - Most companies are continuing to shift production overseas, with some accelerating the pace due to increased U.S. customer orders ahead of the tariff suspension period [2] - Visibility on price renegotiation remains low, with expectations that U.S. customers and end consumers will bear a larger share of tariff costs [2][4] Group 2: Automotive Industry - Automotive manufacturers are optimistic about European market sales, with minimal impact from U.S.-China trade tensions [6] - Parts suppliers are still receiving new orders from U.S. factories, and many have successfully passed on tariff costs to customers [7] - Most suppliers are maintaining their current capacity expansion and capital allocation plans, with some considering building overseas factories [7][8] Group 3: Industrial Technology Industry - Orders for capital goods saw a pause in early April but returned to normal levels by the second week [9] - Companies are facing challenges in negotiating prices due to high tariffs, with many contracts structured to pass tariff costs onto customers [10] - Most companies are expanding capacity in regions like India, Thailand, and Mexico, awaiting clearer tariff policies [11] Group 4: Solar Industry - U.S. orders for solar products have slowed due to uncertainties surrounding the Inflation Reduction Act [15] - Companies are struggling with pricing negotiations as demand weakens, and concerns about potential high tariffs could further suppress downstream demand [15] - Some companies are considering reducing U.S. operations if risks and profitability do not align favorably compared to other regions [16][18]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily focus on the inverter, photovoltaic, and electrical equipment industries, with specific emphasis on the performance of companies like Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd. [1][4] Key Points and Arguments Sungrow Power's Performance - Sungrow Power's Q1 revenue reached 3.8 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations by 800 million RMB, driven by strong exports to the U.S. and Middle Eastern markets [2][4] - Despite the strong performance, a decline in year-on-year comparisons is expected in Q2 and Q3 due to high export ratios to the U.S. in the previous year, leading to potential short-term stock price volatility [1][4] Market Dynamics - The European inverter market is recovering after a destocking phase, with demand expected to increase starting in March [1][5] - Asian and African markets are showing stable growth, with March figures indicating a year-on-year increase of over 10% in Asia and 80% in Africa [2][5] - Southeast Asia and South Asia are experiencing worsening electricity shortages, which is likely to drive demand for solar storage systems [1][2] Export Data - In March, the export value of photovoltaic modules was approximately 2.4-2.5 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year decline due to delays caused by the Spring Festival [1][6] - The transformer export total for January to March was 12.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 40.2%, with large power grid transformers seeing a growth rate of 54.4% [3][10] - High-voltage switchgear exports in the same period reached 8.487 billion RMB, growing by 30% year-on-year [12] Future Outlook - Q2 is identified as a favorable investment window for the inverter and energy storage sectors, with many companies reporting good order conditions [1][8] - The export of electrical equipment is expected to maintain high levels of prosperity through March 2025, with transformers showing particularly strong performance in North America and Asia [9][14] Impact of Tariffs - U.S. tariffs have a limited impact on the profitability of electrical equipment like meters and high-voltage switches, but they affect market sentiment for export-oriented companies [15][16] - Companies with established global supply chains, such as Jinpan Technology and Igor, are less affected by U.S. tariffs due to their production facilities in Mexico and the U.S. [15] Investment Recommendations - Focus on non-U.S. export-oriented electrical equipment companies, such as Sifang Co., Ltd., Samsung Medical, and Huaming Equipment, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing trade dynamics [17] - Companies linked to IDEC, particularly in the Southeast Asian data center sector, are also recommended for investment consideration [17] Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the inverter and electrical equipment markets remains optimistic, with expectations of continued growth driven by both domestic and international demand [1][2][5] - Monitoring future export data, particularly for photovoltaic components, is crucial for assessing market potential [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [4][15]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance significantly exceeded expectations, with revenue and net profit for 2024 projected at RMB 77.857 billion and RMB 11.036 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 8% and 17% [7][12]. - The report highlights a substantial increase in operating cash flow, which reached RMB 12.068 billion, a 73% year-on-year increase [7]. - Despite a recent stock price decline, the report suggests that this has adequately reflected current uncertainties related to tariffs and competition [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 72.251 billion in 2023, RMB 77.857 billion in 2024, and RMB 93.943 billion in 2025, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 79.5%, 7.8%, and 20.7% [3][12]. - Net profit is expected to grow from RMB 9.440 billion in 2023 to RMB 11.036 billion in 2024, and further to RMB 12.534 billion in 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 162.7%, 16.9%, and 13.6% respectively [3][12]. - The report notes a significant increase in gross margin, which reached 29.9% in Q1 2024, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company has seen a notable increase in its market share in the energy storage sector, with revenue from storage systems expected to grow by 40% in 2024 [7]. - The report mentions that the company's U.S. business accounts for 10-20% of its revenue, with current operations being affected by tariffs and competition from other manufacturers [7][8]. - The report anticipates that the company's overseas production capacity for energy storage systems will come online by the end of the year, which should help mitigate some of the competitive pressures [7].