Key Points Summary of the Snack Retail Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The snack retail industry is experiencing rapid growth, with sales projected to increase from 29 trillion to 37 trillion yuan from 2019 to 2024, driven primarily by lower-tier cities [1][2] - Offline channels will dominate, accounting for 80% of sales by 2024, establishing a solid foundation for snack retail [2] Core Competitiveness - Price advantage is the core competitive edge of snack retail stores, with prices typically 20%-25% lower than other supermarkets and up to 50% lower than traditional retail [2][4] - The business model focuses on low margins and high turnover, utilizing direct supply from manufacturers to reduce costs [4] - Simplified SKU management, with around 2,000 SKUs, enhances cash flow and turnover rates [3][9] Financial Metrics - Leading snack retail stores have a gross margin of approximately 15%, which is lower than supermarkets (20%) and convenience stores (23%-24%), but benefit from lower procurement and operational costs [7] - For example, a leading store has an average daily transaction value of 35.8 yuan and a daily GMV of about 14,000 yuan, with a gross margin of 18% [9] Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - The hard discount model focuses on efficiency by stabilizing the supply chain and reducing SKU counts, while the soft discount model combines hard discount advantages with higher gross margins (25%-30%) through customized products [8] - Snack retail stores can achieve cash purchases due to strong channel power, abundant funds, and high SKU standardization, unlike supermarkets which struggle with fresh produce and regional products [10][12] Future Trends - The snack retail industry is expected to continue its rapid growth, driven by high cost-performance, frequent new product launches, and simplified SKU management [5][6] - There remains significant untapped potential in lower-tier markets, which will be a major growth driver [5] Market Competition - The competitive landscape is evolving, with a dual oligopoly forming as regional companies exit the market while leading firms strengthen their positions [15] - The average customer transaction value is declining due to increased competition, but overall order numbers and daily orders per store are still growing [15] Expansion and Product Development - Future growth will be influenced by the expansion of store numbers, with estimates suggesting 60,000 to 80,000 new stores could be opened nationwide [16] - Companies are encouraged to diversify product categories and improve SKU management and private label development to enhance competitiveness [16] Conclusion - The snack retail industry is poised for continued growth, supported by strategic pricing, efficient supply chain management, and the ability to adapt to market changes. Companies that innovate and meet consumer demands will capture larger market shares in the future [6][16]

Core Viewpoint - The listing of "Ming Ming Hen Mang" marks the end of the traditional fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) distribution model in China, highlighting a significant shift in the industry dynamics [2]. Group 1: Company Overview - "Ming Ming Hen Mang" officially listed on January 28, 2026, with a market value approaching 100 billion, making it the highest-valued offline retail company in China [3]. - The company has expanded from a small store in Changsha, Hunan, to over 20,000 stores nationwide, demonstrating significant growth and market presence [5]. Group 2: Business Model Disruption - The traditional FMCG industry in China has been characterized by high markups due to a complex distribution channel, where a product costing 3 yuan at the factory could retail for 7 to 8 yuan [6]. - "Ming Ming Hen Mang" disrupts this model by implementing a "hard discount" strategy, significantly reducing costs through direct supply, cash transactions, and eliminating return policies, thus lowering the markup rate to 15-20% [6][7]. Group 3: Strategic Mergers and Market Position - The 2023 merger between "Ming Ming Hen Mang" and its competitor was a strategic move to consolidate market power, recognizing that continued competition would benefit only upstream manufacturers and consumers [9]. - Post-merger, the company transformed into the largest FMCG distributor and channel operator in China, gaining significant bargaining power over suppliers [10]. Group 4: Franchise System Control - The company has developed a highly controlled franchise system, where franchisees operate under strict guidelines, ensuring consistency and efficiency across all stores [11][12]. - This system allows "Ming Ming Hen Mang" to maintain operational efficiency and scalability, presenting itself as a well-oiled machine rather than a collection of independent operators [12]. Group 5: Industry Transformation - Traditional snack giants are being pressured to lower prices due to the competitive landscape created by "Ming Ming Hen Mang," leading to a transformation in the role of distributors and brand owners [14]. - The company is increasingly focusing on its private label products, which are gaining market share and challenging established brands, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards value over brand loyalty [16]. Group 6: Future Challenges - Despite its success, "Ming Ming Hen Mang" faces challenges such as market saturation in lower-tier cities and the need to expand into first-tier cities or international markets [17]. - As competition intensifies and the hard discount model becomes the norm, the company must innovate beyond price competition to maintain consumer interest [17][19].

黑蚁资本是鸣鸣很忙的第二大机构投资方。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜ Stone Jin 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 据IPO早知道消息，湖南鸣鸣很忙商业连锁股份有限公司（以下简称"鸣鸣很忙"）于2026年1月28 日正式以"1768"为股票代码在港交所主板上市，成为港股"量贩零食第一股"。 成立至今，鸣鸣很忙已获得黑蚁资本、红杉中国、高榕创投、启承资本、五源资本等多家知名机构的 投资，并在本次IPO发行中引入了腾讯、淡马锡、贝莱德、富达基金、泰康人寿、博时国际、易方 达、淡水泉等一众基石投资者。 其中， 黑蚁资本在鸣鸣很忙IPO前持有公司3.99%的股份，是第二大机构投资方。 黑蚁资本对零食量贩赛道的布局，始于2021年针对中国县域市场的系统性调研。 历时半年，团队深 入数十个县城，并通过定量问卷收集了约1600份消费者洞察，发现县域消费者对"不提价的升 级"与"家庭陪伴"场景存在强烈需求。 正是在江西某县的调研中，黑蚁团队注意到了"赵一鸣零食" ，其通过更大的转角店面、更丰富的SKU组合与更具竞争力的价格等"微创新"，成功激活了县城消 费潜力。 2023年2月，黑蚁资本领投了当时门店规模尚在行 ...

Company and Industry Summary Company: 万辰集团 (Wancheng Group) Key Points - The current market capitalization of Wancheng Group is approaching 90 billion RMB, which is expected to catalyze its stock price, reaffirming the investment opportunity in the company [1] - The company is positioned well within the ongoing retail transformation in China, which is still in its early stages compared to overseas markets that have already produced giants [1] - The stock price is believed to have the potential to double, with an ongoing trend of increasing store profit margins [1] Financial Projections - In the medium term (2-3 years), Wancheng Group is projected to have a store space of 30,000 to 35,000 locations, with an estimated revenue of 100 billion RMB and operating profits exceeding 5 billion RMB, leading to a valuation of over 20 times earnings [3] - The company is expected to meet conditions for profit forecasts, with positive trends in single-store performance, store opening progress, and profit margins anticipated to gradually materialize [3] Industry: Discount Retail Sector Core Insights - The domestic discount retail sector is still in its early development phase, with snack retail chains being pioneers. It is estimated that approximately 60% of the store opening progress has been achieved [2] - By the end of 2025, the industry is expected to reach around 60,000 stores (including discount supermarkets), with a long-term potential of approximately 100,000 stores [2] - Leading snack retail brands are projected to have around 30,000 stores each, with the possibility of reaching 35,000 stores [2] Profitability and Market Dynamics - The overall discount retail market in China is considered a blue ocean, with leading retailers like Sam's Club, Pang Donglai, and Hema NB expected to have significantly higher profitability [2] - The profitability of leading snack retail brands is anticipated to continue improving, with potential profit margins reaching 6-7% in the next 1-2 years, supported by economies of scale and cost optimization [2] - The investment opportunities in discount retail are gradually opening up, with the business model being more favorable compared to traditional retail, suggesting a need for higher valuation levels [2] Additional Considerations - The underlying logic of discount supermarkets is to expand product categories to meet more community needs, indicating a strategic approach to market penetration [2] - The head brands in the snack retail sector hold significant option value for community discount supermarkets, highlighting the potential for future growth [2]

证券研究报告 万辰集团 (300972 CH) 精细运营与供应链提效有望驱动业绩 持续释放 华泰研究 动态点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 石狄 研究员 shidi@htsc.com SAC No. S0570524090003 SFC No. BVO045 目标价(人民币): 276.00 樊俊豪 研究员 SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 曾珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120004 SFC No. BTM417 季珂* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525080003 jike@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 吕若晨 研究员 SAC No. S0570525050002 SFC No. BEE828 lvruochen@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 2388 基本数据 | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 1 月 27 日) | 228.12 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 43,090 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 458.98 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Ming Ming Hen Mang plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 28, becoming the first stock in the "bulk snack" sector, with a global offering of 14.1 million shares, expected to raise over HKD 3 billion, and a market capitalization of approximately HKD 50 billion [1][7] - The market response has been positive, with eight cornerstone investors subscribing a total of HKD 1.5 billion, including Tencent, Temasek, and BlackRock, and the latest subscription multiple exceeding 1500 times [1][8] Group 2 - Downstream growth is shifting from rapid expansion to high-quality growth, with traditional store types still having significant opening space, projected to reach nearly 50,000 stores by 2025, with a total potential of about 74,000 stores [2][9] - Profitability is expected to continue improving, with adjusted net margins for Ming Ming Hen Mang increasing from 2.3% to 3.9% from 2023 to the first three quarters of 2025, driven by reduced opening subsidies and category structure adjustments [2][13] - New store formats are supporting store expansion and single-store improvement, with both Ming Ming Hen Mang and Wan Chen planning to open discount supermarket formats by 2025, currently accounting for less than 20% of new store types [2][17] - The development of private label products is boosting revenue and gross margins, with both companies planning to increase their private label revenue share, currently in the single digits, compared to 20-30% for similar brands [2][19] Group 3 - Upstream opportunities are emerging as downstream stores expand into categories like dairy, baking, and frozen foods, benefiting related upstream supply chain companies, particularly mid-tier brands with significant revenue elasticity [3][24] - The focus on developing private label products is leading to market share differentiation among supply chain companies, with manufacturers that have strong product development and customization capabilities likely to gain market share [3][26] Group 4 - Investment recommendations highlight the positive outlook for the bulk snack industry, emphasizing the transition to high-quality growth and the potential for upstream supply chain companies to benefit from downstream category expansions and increased private label product shares [4][28]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities highlights the investment opportunities arising from the new trends in the snack retail industry, indicating a shift from rapid expansion to high-quality growth, with leading companies driving revenue and profitability improvements [1] Downstream - The traditional snack retail sector has significant room for expansion, with an expected increase to nearly 50,000 stores by 2025, creating a total potential of about 74,000 stores, which represents an increase of over 20,000 stores [2] - Profitability is expected to continue improving, with adjusted net profit margins for Mingming Hen Mang rising from 2.3% to 3.9% and Wancheng's net margin increasing from -1.6% to 4.4% from 2023 to the first three quarters of 2025, driven by reduced store opening subsidies and category structure adjustments [2] - New store formats are supporting expansion and improving single-store performance, with both Mingming Hen Mang and Wancheng planning to open discount supermarket formats by 2025, currently accounting for less than 20% of new store formats, with potential for further growth [2] - The development of private label products is boosting revenue and gross margins, with the share of private label income for the two leading companies expected to be in the single digits, indicating significant room for growth compared to competitors like Don Quijote, where private label shares are around 20-30% [2] Upstream - Downstream stores are expanding their product categories to include dairy, baked goods, and frozen foods, which is expected to benefit related upstream supply chain companies, particularly mid-tier brands with significant revenue elasticity [3] - The focus on developing private label products by downstream stores may lead to market share differentiation among supply chain companies, as the relationship between upstream and downstream evolves from simple trade to deep product collaboration, favoring manufacturers with strong product development and customization capabilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Mingming Hen Mang Commercial Chain Co., Ltd. is set to go public on January 28, 2024, on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to leverage its significant market share in the snack retail sector in China [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Mingming Hen Mang was formed by the merger of "Snacks Are Busy" and "Zhao Yiming Snacks," achieving a market share of 32.7% in China's snack retail market, with over 50% in key provinces like Hunan and Jiangxi [1] - The company has rapidly expanded its store network, reaching 19,517 stores across 28 provinces and all county-level cities by September 30, 2025, with approximately 59% of stores located in county towns and rural areas [4] Group 2: Market Trends - The snack retail sector has shown significant growth, with the snack wholesale channel projected to account for 37% of sales in 2024, surpassing supermarkets (22%) and e-commerce (20%), with a market size of 1,040 billion yuan [3] - The market share of snack specialty stores has increased from 7.6% in 2019 to 14% in 2024, with GMV growing from 2,184 billion yuan to 4,190 billion yuan during the same period [4] Group 3: Financial Performance - Mingming Hen Mang's revenue is projected to grow from 4.286 billion yuan in 2022 to 39.344 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 203%, and adjusted net profit increasing from 81 million yuan to 913 million yuan, with a CAGR of 234.6% [7] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 46.371 billion yuan and GMV of 66.1 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 75.2% and 74.5%, respectively [7] Group 4: Profitability Challenges - Despite rapid revenue growth, the company's gross margin remains low, with figures of 7.5% in 2022, 7.5% in 2023, and 9.7% in the first three quarters of 2025, significantly below the average of 15% to 20% for offline supermarkets [7] - Sales and marketing expenses have increased from 159 million yuan in 2022 to 1.476 billion yuan in 2024, further compressing profit margins [7] Group 5: Franchise Model and Investor Interest - The franchise model has evolved, with franchisees now seen as entrepreneurial partners rather than simple investors, reflecting the complexities of the market [11] - The company has secured cornerstone investors, including Tencent and BlackRock, agreeing to purchase shares worth approximately 1.95 billion USD (or about 15.199 billion HKD) at a price of 233.10 HKD per share [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the leisure snack industry, indicating a transition to the 3.0 phase characterized by "quality and efficiency cultivation" [2][28]. Core Insights - The leisure snack retail model is highly efficient and continues to expand, with an estimated 55,000 to 60,000 stores by the end of 2025, projecting a long-term potential of 80,000 to 100,000 stores [2][19]. - The competitive landscape of the leisure snack industry has become clearer, with leading brands entering a phase of quality and efficiency improvement, which is expected to enhance profitability in the future [2][28]. - The industry has evolved through three phases: 1.0 (rapid growth), 2.0 (market consolidation), and now 3.0 (operational optimization and supply chain efficiency) [27][28]. Summary by Sections Industry Development - The leisure snack retail sector has seen significant growth, with the number of stores increasing from approximately 2,500 in 2021 to an estimated 25,000 by the end of 2023, and further growth to 35,000 to 40,000 by the end of 2024 [3][6]. - The market share of the leisure snack retail channel has risen from 0.23% in 2019 to an expected 3.21% by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 77.9% from 2019 to 2024 [11][12]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights a dual-strong competitive structure emerging in the 3.0 phase, with major players like Mingming Hen Mang and Wancheng Group expected to have over 22,000 and 19,000 stores respectively by the end of 2025 [2][28]. - The industry is witnessing a trend of brands expanding their product categories, including the introduction of discount supermarket models and private label products to enhance competitiveness [31][42]. Supply Chain and Product Development - Leading companies are focusing on supply chain efficiency, with improvements in inventory turnover days and operating cycles, indicating better management of resources [39][42]. - The introduction of private label products is seen as a strategy to enhance profit margins and control over the supply chain, with notable examples including various beverage and snack products launched by Mingming Hen Mang [42][43].

Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy has issued a report recommending the food and beverage industry, highlighting the upcoming IPO of "Mingming Hen Mang," which is set to become the first stock in the bulk snack sector in Hong Kong, with a positive market response and significant investor interest [1] Group 1: Downstream Developments - The traditional store model has substantial room for expansion, with an expected increase to nearly 50,000 snack retail stores by 2025, indicating a total potential of about 74,000 stores, with over 20,000 new openings anticipated [2] - Profitability is expected to continue improving, with adjusted net profit margins for "Mingming Hen Mang" rising from 2.3% to 3.9% and "Wancheng" from -1.6% to 4.4% from 2023 to the first three quarters of 2025, driven by reduced store subsidies and category structure adjustments [2] - New store formats are supporting expansion and improving single-store performance, with both "Mingming Hen Mang" and "Wancheng" planning to open discount supermarket formats by 2025, currently representing less than 20% of new store formats [2] - Development of proprietary products is boosting revenue and gross margins, with both companies focusing on customized and private label products, which currently account for a single-digit percentage of revenue, indicating significant growth potential compared to competitors [2] Group 2: Upstream Opportunities - Downstream store category expansion into dairy, baking, and frozen foods is expected to benefit related upstream supply chain companies, particularly mid-tier brands with significant revenue elasticity [3] - The push for proprietary products in downstream stores may lead to market share differentiation among supply chain companies, with those possessing strong product development and customization capabilities likely to gain market share [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The food retail industry is transitioning from rapid expansion to a phase of high-quality growth, with "Wancheng Group" recommended and "Mingming Hen Mang" noted for attention due to their revenue growth and profitability improvements [4] - Upstream, companies benefiting from the expansion into new product categories include "New Dairy" and "Lihigh Foods," with "Yiming Foods" also noted for attention [4] - As downstream stores increase their proprietary product share, supply chain companies with strong R&D and customization capabilities are expected to gain market share, with "Jinzai Foods" recommended and "Yanjin Foods," "Weilong," "Youyou Foods," and "Ganyuan Foods" noted for attention [4]