格隆汇12月12日丨高盛预计2026年市场将持续走强，并将标普500指数的目标设定为7,600点。高盛首席 美国股票策略师Ben Snider表示，人工智能驱动的生产力将推高收益，预计标普500指数的每股收益 （EPS）将增长12%至305美元，其中六家主要科技公司将贡献近一半的增长。虽然大型科技公司仍是 主要驱动力，但Snider也预计该指数其他成分股的收益将有所改善。他指出，前方的风险包括美联储放 缓宽松步伐以及利润率面临压力，但他整体上仍保持积极的展望。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Core Viewpoint - Wells Fargo (WFC.US), the fourth-largest bank in the U.S., is planning to expand its investment banking operations significantly, having already improved its ranking in the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) sector due to recent hiring and market share efforts [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Banking Expansion - Wells Fargo has seen a notable rise in its M&A ranking, moving to eighth place globally in terms of transaction volume as of this year, up from 17th place in 2024 [1][2]. - This marks the first time Wells Fargo has entered the top ten of the M&A rankings since Dealogic began collecting data in 1995, indicating a significant shift in its market position [3]. - The bank's CEO, Charlie Scharf, aims to position Wells Fargo among the top five investment banks globally, with the current ranking being eighth in the world and sixth in the U.S. by revenue [5][6]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Strategic Moves - The optimistic outlook among Wall Street executives regarding transaction prospects is supported by the resilience of the U.S. economy, which benefits Wells Fargo's investment banking ambitions [1][3]. - The lifting of a seven-year punitive asset cap by regulators has allowed Wells Fargo to pursue larger domestic business mandates, enhancing its competitive edge against smaller boutique firms [5][6]. - The bank's investment banking division has been actively recruiting, with over 125 managing directors hired since 2019, indicating a commitment to strengthening its market presence [8]. Group 3: Recent Transactions and Revenue Potential - Wells Fargo has participated in high-profile M&A transactions, including advising Netflix on a $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, which is expected to yield $37 million in advisory fees [4]. - The bank is also advising Union Pacific on an $85 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern, with anticipated revenue of $52.5 million from this deal [5]. - The bank's advisory fee income has been on the rise, although it still ranks 20th in M&A transaction revenue [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that options traders expect the euro's upward momentum to gain new strength next week due to the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision, which is anticipated to highlight the policy divergence with the Federal Reserve [1] - According to the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), the most active strike price this month is at 1.18 USD per euro, with a significant portion of the underlying value concentrated in contracts expiring around the ECB's decision window on December 18-19 [1] - The euro is hovering near a two-month high following the Federal Reserve's third consecutive rate cut and hawkish comments from ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, with the options sentiment for the ECB's December decision being the most bullish in three months [1] Group 2 - The cost of buying volatility ahead of the decision is the highest in three months, attributed to Schnabel's remarks, and Morgan Stanley strategists expect the euro to rise to 1.30 USD by the second quarter of 2026, even if the ECB does not raise rates next year [4] - Hedge funds are identified as the main drivers of the bullish price action for the euro this week, actively purchasing both vanilla and exotic options that will profit from a strengthening euro [4]

随着欧洲央行决策者愈发坚定地认为当前货币政策处于"良好位置"，市场情绪出现显著逆转，交易员已 开始通过定价反映该行在2026年重启加息的可能性，这与此前普遍的降息预期形成鲜明对比。 下周四的欧洲央行会议将成为市场验证这一逻辑的关键节点。据路透12日报道，尽管市场普遍预计欧洲 央行将连续第四次将关键利率维持在2%不变，但投资者关注的焦点已从降息转向未来的紧缩路径。据 彭博的一项调查，超过60%的受访经济学家现在预测欧央行的下一次利率调整将是向上的，而此前持有 这一观点的比例仅为三分之一。 与此同时，大西洋彼岸的美联储刚刚宣布降息25个基点。据华尔街见闻此前文章，高盛及华尔街多家投 行警告称，这种政策分化——美联储"向左"宽松，欧央行"向右"紧缩——预计将在2026年前后通过汇率 市场显现关键影响。由于其他央行维持紧缩倾向，美元面临的贬值压力正成为市场焦点，这可能导致欧 元被动升值，进而成为影响欧洲央行未来决策的外部变量。 投资者正密切关注下周会议释放的信号，以寻找是否有理由维持加息押注。路透指出，除利率决议外， 本次会议还面临关于通胀预测、政策路径、地缘政治影响及人事变动等五大关键问题。 关于明年及更长远的政策 ...

李镇国表示，为应对预期中激增的上市项目，瑞银在过去一年已相应增加了人手，并进行了内部资源调 配，以全力配合IPO项目的顺利推进。 他提到，今年港股IPO市场募集资金已达到2024年全年总额的2.1倍，并预计港交所将在2025年重新获得 排行第一的IPO融资规模，料明年IPO集资额可逾3000亿港元。 智通财经APP获悉，港股IPO市场回暖态势下，新股申报质量问题也引发监管层高度关注。据报道，香 港证监会与香港交易所联合于上周五联名致函IPO保荐人，针对近期新上市申请中出现的质量下滑及部 分不合规行为表达明确关切。对此，瑞银全球投资银行部副主席及亚洲企业客户部联席主管李镇国解读 称，此举更多是监管机构的一种提醒，而非市场所言的"警告"。 他指出，目前已有超过三百家企业提交上市申请，监管层希望在业务繁忙之际，市场各方仍能确保上市 的整体质量，避免出现敷衍了事或降低标准的情况。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market is thriving, with fundraising exceeding HKD 270 billion, ranking first globally, and over 300 companies are currently in line to go public [2] Group 1: IPO Market Outlook - UBS expects the Hang Seng Index to rebound to 30,000 points next year, which will further drive new IPOs to reach a record high, with an estimated 150 to 200 IPOs and total fundraising exceeding HKD 300 billion [2][9] - The current low rejection rate of IPO applications, with only one case being withdrawn, indicates a healthy market environment [3][4] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange issued a joint letter to IPO sponsors, emphasizing the importance of maintaining high-quality application documents [2] - The letter is viewed as a reminder rather than a warning, aimed at ensuring that both sponsors and issuers uphold the quality standards of the Hong Kong market [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite recent softening in stock prices post-IPO, this is considered a cyclical phenomenon, with expectations of increased foreign investment in Hong Kong and Greater China markets due to attractive valuations [7] - The continuous reduction in interest rates is expected to benefit the stock market, alongside the ongoing recovery of the mainland economy [8] Group 4: Future IPO Themes - Upcoming IPOs are anticipated to focus on themes such as consumption, high technology, and artificial intelligence, with potential for large-scale fundraising similar to CATL's HKD 40 billion IPO [10] - Discussions are ongoing with several Middle Eastern companies regarding potential listings [11]

12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，全面总结2025年经济工作，深刻分析当前经济形势，并部署2026年经济 工作。会议立足"十四五"收官与"十五五"开局的关键节点，明确了"坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能"的核心导向，为资本 市场服务科技创新指明了清晰路径。 本报记者 周尚伃 "作为连接资本市场与实体经济的核心枢纽，投行深感使命在肩、责任重大。"对此，华泰联合证券在接受《证券日报》记 者采访时表示，此次会议释放的积极信号，既让我们对中国经济长期向好的基本趋势充满信心，更坚定了以专业金融服务赋能 科技自立自强的战略立场。 会议指出，"我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，现代化产业体系建设持续推进""我国经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不 少，外部环境变化影响加深，国内供强需弱矛盾突出，重点领域风险隐患较多"。 理念的落地，最终体现在服务实体经济的成效上。数据显示，近五年来，华泰联合证券已成功保荐34家硬科技企业于科创 板发行上市，募资规模超400亿元。多年来，我们服务科技创新企业总市值已超10万亿元。依托对行业的深入理解和趋势研 判，公司为资本市场输送了众多科技领域排头兵，这些企业不仅代表了各自细分领域的 ...

该行首席经济学家David Mericle在报告中说道："今天最重要的新信息是，鲍威尔主席以及美联储工作 人员估计，目前公布的就业增长数据（即非农就业数据，Payroll growth）每月被高估了6万个工作岗 位。" 在刚刚结束的12月FOMC会议上，美联储降息又扩表：如期降息25个基点，并提前宣布了"储备管理购 债"的计划，首轮购买约400亿美元的短期国债。 然而，在高盛看来，震撼市场的并非货币政策本身的调整，而是美联储主席鲍威尔亲口承认，官方的就 业增长数据可能存在"严重的系统性高估"，其实际情况甚至可能已陷入负增长。 高盛直言，这本次会议"最重要的新信息"。 这意味着支撑美国经济的关键支柱——劳动力市场，远比其表面看起来的要脆弱。这一发现不仅解释了 美联储在通胀仍高于目标时坚持降息的部分原因，更重要的是，它为未来进一步的货币宽松政策打开了 想象空间，可能导致美联储的政策路径比市场此前预期的更为鸽派。 就业数据"幻象"：从月增4万到月减2万 据高盛分析，本次12月议息会议虽然表面上波澜不惊——联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将联邦基金利 率目标区间下调25个基点至3.5%-3.75%，但这并非故事的全貌。 ...

高盛11日表示，其对2026年底黄金价格每盎司4900美元的预测存在很大的上涨空间。 当天3月交割的白银期货价格上涨2.946美元，收于每盎司63.975美元，涨幅为4.83%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经纽约12月11日电（记者徐静）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期价 11日上涨84.6美元，收于每盎司4309.3美元，涨幅为2.00%。 受白银市场强劲上涨的提振，黄金价格当日大幅上涨，白银价格则再创新高。技术性买盘强劲，美联储 降息均支持黄金、白银价格。美元指数当日跌至六周低点，也进一步提振了市场对贵金属的买盘兴趣。 美国劳工部11日公布的数据显示，截至4日当周，经季节性调整后的失业救济金首次申请人数为23.6万 人，较上周修正后的19.2万人增加了4.4万人。该数据远低于预期，此前市场普遍预期申请人数为22万 人。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that with the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, global funds are increasingly favoring Chinese assets due to the resilience of the Chinese economy, attractive market valuations, and an improving policy environment [1][2] - Foreign long-term capital is actively reassessing the investment value of Chinese assets, particularly in technology stocks, with a focus on structural growth opportunities over the next 10 to 20 years [2] - As of November this year, foreign long-term capital has net purchased approximately $10 billion in A-shares and H-shares through channels like the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, contrasting sharply with an expected outflow of about $17 billion in 2024 [1] Group 2 - In December, Chinese stock funds saw a net inflow of $5.846 billion, surpassing markets like South Korea and India [1] - The assets of overseas Chinese ETFs have significantly increased, with the KraneShares China Internet ETF growing from $5.414 billion at the end of last year to $8.914 billion, and the iShares MSCI China ETF rising from $5.451 billion to $7.878 billion [1] - Multiple foreign institutions believe that the Chinese stock market has entered an attractive configuration zone, with expectations of continued rebound potential through 2026 due to improving macro conditions and corporate resilience [3]