此前面对如此高的潜在贸易壁垒，外国买家纷纷抢在关税生效前加速下单，直接推动了越南第二季度的 出口增长。而美越新贸易协定签署后，分析师看好越南后市前景，认为贸易协定将有助于政府加快产业 升级步伐。 分析师看好后市前景 越南经济在第二季度实现强劲增长，主要得益于外国买家抢在美国威胁征收高额关税前加速采购。这一 增长超出了经济学家预期，凸显了贸易政策不确定性对全球供应链的直接影响。 7月5日，越南国家统计局公布二季度GDP数据，同比增长7.96%，显著超出市场预期的6.85%，也高于 一季度的6.93%。越南二季度出口增长18%至1169.3亿美元，带来44.1亿美元的贸易顺差，成为推动经 济增长的关键因素。数据显示： 据新华社报道，特朗普称美越达成贸易协议，越南所有对美出口商品将面临至少20%关税，并对美 国"完全开放市场"。而特朗普在4月宣布"解放日"关税时，威胁对越南商品征收高达46%的进口关税， 这一税率堪称全球最高水平之一。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the new model floating management fee rate funds is a response to the China Securities Regulatory Commission's action plan aimed at enhancing the quality of public funds, linking management fees directly to the performance of the funds, thereby aligning the interests of fund managers and investors [1][2]. Group 1: New Fund Model - The second batch of 11 new model floating management fee rate funds has been reported, including stock funds from Invesco Great Wall Fund and CCB Fund, and mixed equity funds from nine other institutions [1]. - The fee structure for these new funds includes three tiers: 1.2% (base), 1.5% (upward adjustment), and 0.6% (downward adjustment), similar to the first batch [1]. - The new fee model strengthens the performance benchmark's binding effect, with management fees adjusted based on the fund's performance relative to the benchmark [1]. Group 2: Fund Performance and Market Response - The first batch of 26 new model funds reported on May 16, 2023, received approval on May 23, and began fundraising on May 27, raising a total of 22.68 billion yuan, with an average fundraising size of 944.5 million yuan per fund [2]. - The new model funds focus on various sectors, including high-end equipment, pharmaceuticals, and manufacturing, with some adopting an initiator arrangement to further align interests with investors [2]. - Invesco Great Wall Fund has continued to innovate by applying for a new high-end equipment stock fund, aiming to meet investor demand for quality technology investment tools [2]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The fee reform is expected to help public fund institutions focus more on generating excess returns, promoting a return to the core of the asset management industry [3]. - Huashang Fund has also engaged in the new model by investing 20 million yuan of its own funds into its mixed fund, indicating a commitment to the new fee structure [3].

Group 1 - The macroeconomic analysis conference hosted by Peking University HSBC Business School focused on China's economic cooperation opportunities with Southeast Asia and the Middle East in 2025 [1] - The conference gathered over 160 experts from various sectors to discuss the economic situation of China and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in the second quarter of 2025 [1] Group 2 - Southeast Asia is projected to be the fifth-largest economy globally, with a GDP growth rate of 4.8% and export growth of 6.8% in 2024, alongside a 10% increase in foreign direct investment [4] - The Middle East accounts for 5.2% of global GDP and is a significant source of energy imports for China, with strong growth in imports of machinery and vehicles [4] - There is substantial cooperation potential between China and Southeast Asia/Middle Eastern countries in supply chain collaboration, digital economy, artificial intelligence, and energy transition [4] Group 3 - China's economic growth is expected to show a pattern of high growth in the first half and lower growth in the second half of 2025, with an overall target of around 5% for the year [5] - The use of targeted consumption vouchers is aimed at temporarily boosting consumption by increasing disposable income, but long-term strategies should focus on increasing income and reducing leverage [5] - There remains a demand for housing, with current policies favoring the second-hand housing market due to its advantages in availability and cost-effectiveness [5] Group 4 - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is experiencing growth supported by consumption, although there is a need to boost corporate investment confidence [6] - From January to May, consumer policies in Guangdong have shown significant effects, with a 6.79% increase in exports of machinery and electrical equipment [6] - The GDP growth for the Greater Bay Area in the second quarter is projected to be 4.3% [6] Group 5 - Key investment opportunities in the Middle East include agriculture, digital products in service trade, the second-hand car market, and manufacturing enterprises with advanced technology [8] - The population of the UAE is 12.5 million, with over 80% being expatriates, indicating significant opportunities due to the influx of people and capital [8] Group 6 - The global industrial transfer process has accelerated, with a decrease in China's share of U.S. imports and an increase in emerging economies like Bangladesh and India [9] - Strategies for China include focusing on trade negotiations, encouraging companies to explore overseas markets, and developing service trade to reduce trade deficits [9] Group 7 - The relationship between macro and microeconomic factors is crucial, with a focus on how weak private investment can lead to reduced employment opportunities and slower income growth [13] - The balance between domestic market development and international expansion is essential for sustainable growth, as seen in developed economies [13]

2025中国产业转移发展对接活动（江西）7月3日—4日在南昌举行。工业和信息化部党组成员、副部长 单忠德出席开幕式并致辞。单忠德表示，提升产业科技创新能力，推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合。 健全产业科技创新体系，建设一批试验验证平台和中试平台，加快重大战略性技术和产品攻关突破，推 进创新产品推广应用、迭代升级和跨区域孵化转化。推动 人工智能产业创新发展，高水平赋能 新型工 业化。深入实施"人工智能+制造"行动，推动大模型在制造业重点行业落地部署，加快制造业全流程智 能化升级，在产业转移中加快人工智能技术应用，推进制造业转型升级和创新发展。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing landscape of investment strategies in response to the declining interest rates and the impact of geopolitical events, particularly the US-China trade tensions, on various asset classes. Group 1: Economic Environment and Investment Strategy - The current economic environment is characterized by a significant decline in inflation, with CPI showing negative growth for four consecutive months starting February 2025, making it easier for individuals to maintain purchasing power without active investment [1][2] - The interest rates for one-year deposits at major banks have dropped to 0.9%, leading to a diminishing return on traditional savings, which poses challenges for individuals seeking to grow their wealth through savings alone [2][3] - The article emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation in a highly uncertain global environment, advocating for a strategy of not putting all eggs in one basket [2][3] Group 2: Asset Classes Overview - A-shares, gold, government bonds, and US Treasuries are identified as the core asset classes for domestic investors, each with distinct risk-return profiles [3] - A-shares are seen as having optimistic potential, contingent on effective domestic policy support for the economy, while the bond market is expected to have limited upside and increased volatility compared to 2024 [3][4] - Gold is recommended for accumulation rather than speculation, as its price may face short-term pressures despite having long-term upward potential due to factors like a weakening dollar and potential tariff increases [3][10] Group 3: A-shares Market Analysis - The US-China trade conflict is identified as the primary "black swan" event affecting the A-share market, with significant market reactions observed following escalations in trade tensions [4][8] - Despite initial pessimism regarding economic performance post-trade conflict, recent data indicates a stabilization in manufacturing and external trade, contributing to a recovery in A-share prices [6][8] - The article notes that the market's future performance will depend heavily on the resilience of financial stocks and the overall economic outlook [6][8] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - The perception of gold as an investment has become more complex, with recent price fluctuations reflecting heightened sensitivity to market conditions and geopolitical developments [10][11] - The article highlights that while gold prices surged earlier in the year, the current market sentiment is cautious, with predictions of potential declines in gold prices due to stronger US economic indicators [10][14] - Long-term prospects for gold remain positive, particularly as a hedge against the declining credibility of the dollar, but short-term volatility is expected [14][16] Group 5: Bond Market Insights - The bond market has shifted from a bullish to a more cautious stance, with lower returns expected in 2025 compared to the previous year, making it more suitable for tactical trading rather than buy-and-hold strategies [17][19] - The article suggests that investors should focus on yield movements in the 10-year government bond market to inform their trading decisions, as the relationship between bond prices and yields is inversely correlated [21][23] - The US Treasury market is under scrutiny due to rising yields, which are increasingly viewed as risk assets rather than safe havens, indicating a need for careful investment strategies [23][25]

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market showed strong performance in June, with job additions exceeding market expectations, boosting confidence in economic resilience and driving up the dollar and major U.S. stock indices [1][2] Employment Report Highlights - Non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the market expectation of 110,000, and revised May data to 144,000 [2] - The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, the lowest level since February 2025 [2] - Wage growth showed signs of slowing, with average hourly earnings rising 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, both below May's growth and market expectations [2] - Labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3%, the lowest since 2022, raising concerns about the breadth of economic recovery [2] - Private sector job growth was weak, adding only 74,000 jobs, the lowest since October 2024 [2] - Manufacturing employment continued to decline, indicating pressure in certain economic sectors [2] Market Reactions - Following the employment report, the dollar strengthened, with the USD index rising approximately 0.6% [5] - Major U.S. stock indices reached new highs during intraday trading but showed caution near the close as investors digested signals of slowing wage growth and declining labor participation [5] - Macro uncertainties remain, particularly with the upcoming expiration of U.S. tariff suspensions on July 9, raising concerns about potential trade risks [5] Interest Rate Outlook - Despite the mixed signals in the employment data, the overall strong performance has led to a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut timeline [2] - The probability of a rate cut in September is currently at 66.7%, slightly down from earlier in the week, while the probability of maintaining rates in July has risen to 94.8% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economy is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. Policy support is in place, but domestic demand remains weak. The GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025 is expected to be achieved with relative ease [9][10]. - Fiscal policy will mainly rely on existing measures with limited incremental input, while monetary policy will continue with reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Additional fiscal policies may be launched under special circumstances [2]. - There are three major external disturbances in the second half of the year: tariff negotiations, the OBBB Act, and the timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts [2]. - The outlook for major asset classes varies. Stocks are expected to have a bottom - line support with small - cap stocks outperforming; bond yields are expected to reach new lows; the RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate following the US dollar index; and commodities' performance will depend on event and policy rhythms [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Domestic Economy: Policy Support, Weak Domestic Demand - **Economic Overall Trend**: The economy is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. To counter the impact of exports, policies are targeted at consumption, infrastructure, and manufacturing. In the first half, with pre - emptive policy implementation, consumption, infrastructure, and manufacturing showed good growth, and the GDP growth rate in Q1 was 5.4%, with Q2 expected to be above 5%. In the second half, exports are likely to decline, and the probability of additional policies is low [9][10]. - **Consumption**: The increase in social retail sales is mainly supported by policies. After excluding the impact of the "trade - in" policy, the overall consumption has not improved significantly compared to 2024. Income expectations remain poor, and employment expectations are lower than income expectations. The consumption in Q3 is expected to maintain relatively high - speed growth, while there will be significant downward pressure in Q4 [11][16][17]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market has basically reached the bottom, and the probability of a further sharp decline in the second half is low. However, the driving force for recovery is insufficient, and it is expected to continue to operate at the bottom, with a slight upward trend under optimistic expectations [19][21]. - **Infrastructure**: Infrastructure is expected to remain at a high level. The main sources of funds are two - fold policy funds and local government special bonds. In Q3, infrastructure will still have strong support, and it may decline in Q4 but remain at a high level overall. The new policy - based financial instruments may be introduced in September or October [34][35]. - **Exports**: Exports were high in the first half but are likely to decline in the second half due to factors such as over - drawn demand and the downward risk of the US economy [37][38]. - **Manufacturing**: Manufacturing is highly dependent on policy support. With the implementation of the equipment renewal policy, most of the funds have been allocated, and manufacturing is expected to remain at a high level at least in Q3 [40]. 3.2 Policy: Limited Fiscal Policy, Increased Monetary Policy - **Fiscal Policy**: The fiscal policy will mainly rely on existing measures with limited incremental input. The probability of introducing incremental fiscal policies is low unless there is a significant external shock. Key meetings in the second half of the year need to be monitored [42][43]. - **Monetary Policy**: Monetary policy will continue with reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Based on historical experience and the current high real - interest - rate level, it is reasonable to expect an interest rate cut of 20bp this year [44][46]. 3.3 Three Major External Disturbances in the Second Half of the Year - **Tariff Negotiation Disturbance**: The outcomes of the US tariff negotiations on July 9 and the China - US tariff negotiations on August 12 will basically determine the export trend in the second half of the year [48]. - **OBBB Act Disturbance**: The OBBB Act will have an impact on the US economy and indirectly affect the domestic economy. The Senate version of the bill will increase the US debt, and if temporary measures are made permanent, the debt increase will be even greater. The bill may lead to a steeper yield curve and higher 10 - year US Treasury yields [49][51]. - **Fed Policy Rate Changes**: The first interest rate cut is expected to occur in September or later. The number of expected interest rate cuts within the year may be slightly overestimated considering the US economic resilience and Powell's style [54]. 3.4 Outlook for Major Asset Classes in the Second Half of the Year - **Stocks**: Stocks have a bottom - line support. Although they will face fundamental pressure, the Fed's interest rate cuts and domestic monetary policy will provide support. Small - cap stocks are expected to outperform [55]. - **Bonds**: Bond yields are expected to reach new lows. The bond market will be supported by the economic trend, and with lower supply pressure and a high probability of interest rate cuts, bond yields are expected to decline [58]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index is expected to decline, and the RMB will appreciate following the US dollar index, which will help ease the pressure on export enterprises [60]. - **Commodities**: The performance of commodities will depend on event and policy rhythms. External tariff negotiations and domestic policy implementation schedules will affect commodity prices. Gold is expected to strengthen with support from the US debt issue and the approaching Fed interest rate cuts [63][64].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of the Chinese equity market, highlighting a shift in global perception of Chinese assets and the potential for A-shares to catch up with the performance of Hong Kong stocks in the coming months to a year [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Recent months have shown a recovery in the Chinese market, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rebounding quickly after initial shocks from tariff disputes [3]. - The Hang Seng Index has increased by 27.64% from September 24, 2024, to May 31, 2025, while the CSI 300 Index has risen by 19.53% during the same period, indicating a stronger performance in Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares [3]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - Four key sectors are highlighted for future investment: AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and power batteries [4][5]. - AI is seen as a core direction for global technological development, with significant investment opportunities in computing power and related hardware [4]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to grow, driven by advancements in research and development within Chinese companies [7]. - The consumer sector is viewed as having no clear distinction between "new" and "old" consumption, with opportunities arising from cultural exports as China continues to grow as a super economy [4]. - The power battery sector remains promising due to its vast market potential across various applications, including energy storage and robotics [5]. Group 3: Healthcare Sector Insights - The innovative pharmaceutical market is anticipated to be a long-term trend, with China's pharmaceutical capabilities aligning with global standards [7]. - Investment opportunities are focused on companies in pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and high-value consumables, with a preference for firms with strong clinical and sales capabilities [7]. Group 4: Consumer Sector Dynamics - The future performance of the consumer sector is closely tied to domestic demand, which is influenced by residents' income expectations [9]. - Recent consumer subsidies in sectors like automotive and home appliances have created opportunities, and sustained policy support could further drive growth [10]. Group 5: Technology Sector Developments - The technology sector, particularly AI, is expected to play a crucial role in overcoming current economic challenges, with AI development projected to continue for decades [12]. - Investment opportunities are identified in smart driving and humanoid robots, with the latter expected to see production growth in specific industries [12]. Group 6: Manufacturing and Resource Insights - The manufacturing sector is poised for growth, with opportunities for Chinese brands to compete globally due to improved product performance and stability [16]. - Resource-related companies are also highlighted, as limited supply supports pricing and profitability [16]. Group 7: Financial Sector Outlook - The banking sector has shown resilience, with improved performance attributed to better-than-expected corporate conditions outside the real estate sector [18]. - As the economic outlook improves, expectations for the banking sector are also anticipated to recover [18]. Group 8: Consumer Goods Sector Analysis - The white liquor industry is undergoing adjustments primarily due to inventory cycles and operational challenges, with potential for recovery as internal adjustments take place [21].

周三，美国和越南达成了一项"好于预期"的贸易协议，越南所有对美出口商品的关税降至20%，结束了 为期三个月的不确定性。 对于越南以及在越南的中国制造商来说，这是一个可以接受的关税税率，能够支持他们继续在越南运 营。然而与此同时，新的贸易协议规定，将对被视为转运的商品征收40%的关税。 据报道，美国和越南举行了三轮谈判才达成这项协议。该协议还将越南对美国商品的关税降至零。新的 税率远低于特朗普4月初宣布的对越南商品征收46%的所谓"互惠"关税。 最新协议不仅对越南具有深远影响，对在越南注册工厂的中国本土制造商来说也是个好消息(中国企业 为越南的经济和工业做出了真正的贡献)，因为20%已经好于预期。 这个条件看似对越南很不利，但实际实施后的情况可能会让美国买家失望。这是因为美越两国的人均国 内生产总值(GDP)差距过于悬殊，许多美国出口产品并不适合越南市场，因此即使实施零关税，美国出 口预计也不会出现激增，这也解释了为什么越南会欣然接受美国这个看似无理的要求。 只不过这个"对转运的商品征收40%关税"有点耐人寻味。众所周知，经越南转运的商品有大部分来自中 国，这似乎是美国堵住转口贸易这条路的"最新手段"。 不过经 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Vietnam has agreed to a trade deal with the U.S. that includes a 40% tariff on re-exported goods, which is primarily aimed at China, marking a significant shift in trade dynamics [1][5][10] - The trade agreement allows Vietnam to impose a 20% tariff on U.S. goods while maintaining a zero tariff on American products, which appears beneficial for Vietnam but ultimately favors the U.S. [5][12] - Vietnam's exports to the U.S. are projected to reach $136 billion in 2024, with a trade surplus exceeding $123 billion, indicating that even with the new tariffs, Vietnam's overall benefits from trade with the U.S. remain substantial [7][12] Group 2 - The U.S. has been targeting "transshipment trade," where Chinese products are processed in third countries like Vietnam to avoid tariffs, and this has become a focal point in the ongoing trade war [3][9] - Vietnam's compliance with U.S. demands includes establishing a dedicated customs audit team and real-time customs networking to scrutinize supply chains for Chinese components, which could severely impact Chinese exports [9][10] - The agreement may set a precedent for future U.S. trade negotiations with other countries, potentially leading to a broader trade barrier against China [10][20] Group 3 - Vietnam's economic dependency on the U.S. is significant, with nearly 30% of its total exports directed to the U.S., making it vulnerable to U.S. tariff actions [12][14] - The internal industrial chain in Vietnam is incomplete, heavily relying on Chinese high-end equipment and raw materials, which complicates its position in the trade agreement [14][18] - China's response to the agreement has been firm, emphasizing that it will not tolerate any trade deals that undermine its interests, indicating potential retaliatory measures [16][18]