本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【高盛预测2025年剩余时间美联储将三次降息，或为加密货币投资创造有利环境，但监管审查需警惕】 高盛称，2025年剩下的时间里美联储将进行三次降息，这似乎给加密货币带来了好时机。借贷成本降低 或许会让比特币和以太坊等数字资产获得更多关注。不过，事情并非一路坦途，监管审查的强化以及市 场波动的可能性会让情况变得复杂。 高盛的这一预测十分大胆，明确指出美联储将在2025年12月前降 息三次。这会是一个重大转变，特别是各国央行已开始对增长放缓和通胀缓解迹象做出反应。降息可能 会使更多人关注加密货币，尤其是在企业开始用数字货币支付工资的背景下。"大辞职潮"显示，员工对 有加密货币薪酬的工作更感兴趣，随着借贷成本下降，这一趋势很可能持续增长。 从历史情况看，加 密货币市场在货币宽松期通常会上涨。降息意味着持有投机性资产的成本降低，让加密货币更具吸引 力。比特币往往在美联储释放鸽派信号后反弹，高盛预测的三次降息可能为2026年的大反弹奠定基础。 但仍要警惕监管审查加强，这可能会使情况复杂。 随着加密货币市场发展，合规性会变得更重要。欧 盟的《加密资产市场框架》已 ...

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【调查显示多数专家预计韩国央行本周维持基准利率不变】对27位专家的调查结果显示，20位预计韩国 央行周四政策会议维持基准利率不变，7位预测会降息。高盛专家权九勋团队称，按兵不动的鸽派立场 能让韩央行获政策观察窗口，追踪家庭债务走势、评估财政刺激效果及研判美联储动向。 高盛维持"韩 央行10月实施降息"的基本预测。多数专家预计，因二季度增长数据超预期强劲，韩央行或小幅上调 2025年GDP增速与通胀预测值。 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.51% to close at 3883.56 points, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.94% to 25829.91 points [1] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) has an A/H premium of 82.91%, ranking 36th among A/H shares [1] - CICC's A-shares closed at 39.29 yuan, with a gain of 1.11%, and H-shares closed at 23.46 HKD, up by 2.27% [1] Group 2 - CICC was established in 1995 and has been involved in numerous pioneering transactions, contributing to China's economic reform and development [1] - The company aims to become a first-class investment bank with international competitiveness, providing high-quality financial services to a diverse client base [1] - CICC has developed a balanced business structure encompassing research, information technology, investment banking, equity, fixed income, asset management, private equity, and wealth management [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs' global investment banking chairman Raghav Maliah visited Xiamen, China, to explore collaboration opportunities with local companies [2] - Xiamen Tianke Guosheng Industrial Co., Ltd. has a diverse business in the wholesale and retail of agricultural products, particularly known for high-quality rice supply [4] - Discussions with Tianke Guosheng focused on financial support strategies to help expand their national market and optimize supply chain financing [4] Group 2 - Mai Steel (Fujian) Digital Technology Co., Ltd. utilizes digital technology to create a service platform for the steel industry, addressing information asymmetry and enhancing supply chain efficiency [6] - Goldman Sachs shared global financial innovation cases related to the digital transformation of the steel industry during discussions with Mai Steel [6] - Xiamen Qintian Group has extensive experience in enterprise services, covering areas such as consulting, tax services, and intellectual property [6] Group 3 - The visit by Raghav Maliah is part of Goldman Sachs' strategy to deepen cooperation with Chinese enterprises amid the ongoing opening of China's financial market [8] - Goldman Sachs aims to identify new business growth points through collaboration with high-quality enterprises in Xiamen, injecting international financial vitality into local businesses [8] - The initiative is expected to promote the deep integration of finance and the real economy, contributing to high-quality regional economic development [8]

稳定币似乎是企业规避加密货币薪资波动风险的热门选择。随着加密货币薪酬的普及，了解稳定币的采 用将成为驾驭数字经济时代薪酬未来的关键。 简而言之，高盛预测的降息可能会为加密货币投资创造更有利的环境，尤其是在企业考虑采用加密货币 等薪酬解决方案的背景下。但监管审查绝对是值得警惕的因素。展望2025年，货币政策与加密货币之间 的关系将在塑造数字资产的未来中起到关键作用。 从历史来看，加密货币市场在货币宽松期通常会上涨。降息意味着持有投机性资产的成本降低，这使得 加密货币更具吸引力。比特币往往在美联储释放鸽派信号后反弹，而高盛预测的三次降息可能为2026年 的大反弹铺平道路。但仍需警惕监管审查的加强，这可能会让情况复杂化。 随着加密货币市场的发展，合规性将变得更加重要。欧盟的《加密资产市场(MiCA)框架》已经实施了 严格的透明度和运营监督要求，这对小型企业来说可能难以应对。监管合规的复杂性和加密货币的波动 性给考虑采用加密货币支付薪酬的企业带来了挑战。它们需要通过一系列努力来确保合规并避免法律纠 纷。 即将到来的降息也可能导致市场波动加剧，因为投资者会对不断变化的经济形势做出反应。为了应对这 一点，分散投资到比特币 ...

【韩国央行周四政策会议大概率连续二次维持利率不变】韩国央行在周四政策会议上，很可能连续第二 次维持利率不变。调查27位学家显示，20位预计利率不变，7位预测会降息。 高盛学家Goohoon Kwon 等称，若温和维持利率不变，韩国央行可监测家庭债务趋势、评估财政刺激效果及追踪美联储政策立 场。高盛预计10月降息。 多数学家预计，韩国央行会略上调2025年国内生产总值和通胀预测，因二季 度增长数据强于预期。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the US dollar is attempting to rebound against major currencies, but remains under pressure due to dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding potential interest rate cuts [1] - Market expectations suggest a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with an overall anticipated reduction of approximately 48 basis points by the end of the year [1][2] - Political uncertainties, particularly President Trump's criticisms of the Federal Reserve's policies, are contributing to downward pressure on the dollar, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming US PCE price index report, which is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, as this data could further influence the Federal Reserve's policy direction and market sentiment [2] - In terms of technical analysis, the momentum indicators are neutral, and the dollar index needs to close below 97.55 to confirm a bearish signal [2] - Initial support for the dollar index is at 97.55, with further support at 97.20, while initial resistance is at 98.83 and then at 99.08 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Huaxing Capital Holdings (01911) has seen a significant stock price increase following the announcement of a strategic cooperation memorandum with YZiLabs, focusing on the Binance Coin (BNB) and BNBChain ecosystem [1] Group 1: Strategic Partnership - Huaxing Capital will invest approximately $100 million in a dedicated allocation for BNB assets [1] - The company plans to collaborate with partners like Huaxia Fund (Hong Kong) to develop fund products and Web3 expansion solutions [1] - The goal is to facilitate the compliant listing of BNB on licensed virtual asset exchanges in Hong Kong [1] Group 2: Fund Establishment - Huaxing Capital intends to establish a Real World Asset (RWA) fund with a scale of several hundred million dollars, supported by YZiLabs [1] - The company will assist Hong Kong-listed companies in adopting the BNB blockchain in stablecoin and RWA scenarios [1] Group 3: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 64.98 million RMB for the first half of the year, a turnaround from a loss of about 73.82 million RMB in the same period last year [1] - This improvement is primarily due to a significant increase in operating profit from the investment management segment, which has greatly supported the group's financial performance [1] - Huaxing Securities Limited has also seen a substantial reduction in losses for the first half of 2025, alongside notable achievements in reducing operating costs [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that if the non-farm employment growth in September is below 100,000, it will help determine the likelihood of a rate cut in September, with concerns about the labor market's downward risks highlighted by Powell [1][2][13] Employment Data Concerns - Goldman Sachs expresses worries about future employment growth revisions leaning negative due to several factors, including overly optimistic birth-death models and historical trends of negative revisions during economic slowdowns [3][4] - The firm notes that the ADP data raises questions about healthcare sector employment growth, and household surveys may be overestimating immigration and job growth [4] Labor Market Outlook - The company is particularly concerned that the "catch-up hiring" in a few sectors seems to have ended, with employment growth outside these sectors nearing zero [5] - There is significant uncertainty regarding balanced employment growth, with Goldman estimating a balanced level of around 80,000 jobs, making the current average growth of 35,000 jobs concerning [6] Rate Cut Path - The path for rate cuts is heavily dependent on labor market performance, with the current window for observing significant slowdowns in employment data being now [7] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the high level of market focus on the August non-farm data, given the scale of previous data revisions, which raises concerns [9] Future Rate Cut Expectations - The firm believes that regardless of whether the economy is slowing or normalizing, there is a strong possibility that the rate cut cycle will conclude by mid-2026, coinciding with the next Federal Reserve chair's term [10][14] - The current yield curve in June 2026 is flat, providing a framework for future policy considerations [11]

Core Insights - The recent increase in tariffs to $28 billion has led to significant price hikes for consumers, contradicting the expectation that foreign entities would bear the cost [1][3][12] - A report from Goldman Sachs indicates that by October, consumers will absorb 67% of the tariff costs, a stark shift from earlier where businesses bore 64% of the costs [3][5] - The actual effective tariff rate has reached 18.6%, the highest in 90 years, resulting in an average additional cost of $2,400 per household [5][9] Tariff Impact on Consumers - Over 75% of businesses have opted to pass on tariff costs to consumers rather than absorbing them, leading to increased prices for everyday goods [3][5] - Specific price increases include a 37% rise in footwear and significant hikes in appliance prices, directly affecting consumer spending [3][5] Economic Consequences - The trade war has resulted in a decline in trade volume, with a 2% drop in physical imports in the first half of the year [7] - The U.S. is experiencing a potential stagnation combined with inflation, termed "stagflation," as the Federal Reserve grapples with the implications of rising prices and economic slowdown [9][12] Broader Trade Dynamics - The U.S. has seen a shift in trade partnerships, with China’s share of U.S. imports dropping below 9.5%, while other regions like ASEAN and Latin America are stepping in to fill the gap [7][9] - The agricultural sector is particularly hard hit, with U.S. farmers facing reduced demand and falling prices for their products due to shifting trade patterns [7][9] Long-term Outlook - The current tariff strategy is likened to a short-term financial boost with significant long-term negative consequences, as it fails to address underlying economic issues [9][12] - Historical parallels are drawn to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, suggesting that current policies may lead to similar economic downturns [12][14]