Group 1 - The total hotel transaction value in Hong Kong for the first three quarters of this year is approximately $457 million (around HKD 2.7 billion), significantly higher than $221 million in the same period of 2024, representing an increase of about 106% [1] - The increase is primarily driven by a low transaction volume in the same period last year and a major transaction involving the sale of the Victoria Harbour Hotel in Kwun Tong for nearly HKD 2 billion [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, continued pressure from developers and high-net-worth individuals to liquidate assets is expected to drive hotel transactions, while private equity funds and institutional investors will seize investment opportunities arising from performance and valuation discrepancies [1] Group 2 - The total hotel transaction value in the Asia-Pacific region is projected to reach $11.9 billion in 2025, slightly down from an earlier estimate of $12.8 billion due to prolonged transaction completion times amid geopolitical uncertainties and heightened due diligence requirements [2] - Despite these challenges, the overall investment activity is expected to accelerate as some transactions currently under due diligence are completed in the second half of the year [2] - The Asia-Pacific hotel investment market is anticipated to continue its growth trend, with total investment expected to rise to $13.3 billion in 2026, representing an increase of over 10% compared to 2025 [2]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.11 2025-11-12 降幅收窄供给分化，龙头变革预期改善 酒店行业更新报告 本报告导读： 经营数据降幅持续改善，供给已经出现结构性变化，龙头各有改善，行业有望迎来 明显估值修复。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 行 业 专 题 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [table_Authors] [Table_Summary] 投资观点：预计酒店将受益行业经营数据降幅收窄、公司个股变革 预期提振，以及股本结构优化和板块资金偏好催化，估值明显修复。 重点标的：华住集团、锦江酒店、首旅酒店。相关标的：亚朵。 景气度环比持续改善，但持续性仍有争议。①自 2025 年 7 月以来， 酒店行业及龙头 RevPAR 降幅持续收窄呈现出明显环比改善趋势。 十一后，环比改善趋势延续。②量价维度拆分，价格表现好于 OCC。 2025 年酒店主动调整运营策略：追求 OCC 和 ADR 均衡，而非高 OCC， 以获取最大化利润率。③酒店能够提价成功，也和行业特征有关： 供给强区域特征，其他区域供给并不对本区构成影响。酒店价格是 区域酒店选定标杆酒店 ...

Core Viewpoint - The hotel industry has shown a significant improvement in RevPAR decline since July 2025, with a continued positive trend observed post-October [1][2] Group 1: Industry Performance - The hotel industry's RevPAR decline has narrowed, indicating a clear month-on-month improvement trend since July 2025, which has continued after the National Day holiday [2] - Business travel demand has improved, as evidenced by the year-on-year increase in passenger volume on major business routes, although the sustainability of this demand remains debated [2][3] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - As of the end of October 2025, the overall hotel room supply has increased by 8.5% year-on-year, with chain hotels growing by 11.7% [2] - The growth rate of small-scale properties is significantly higher than that of large-scale properties, indicating a shift in supply dynamics [2] - The increase in supply is attributed to a greater decline in rental prices compared to room rates, maintaining investment returns [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Leading hotel groups exhibit varying operational efficiencies, with Huazhu showing a significant lead in RevPAR compared to its peers [3] - Differences in channel and membership capabilities are evident, with Huazhu and Atour having more developed membership systems and multi-channel pricing strategies [3] - Operational efficiency comparisons reveal that Huazhu and Atour outperform others in terms of operating profit margins, while Jinjiang's efficiency gaps are primarily due to direct labor and operational costs [3]

Summary of Hotel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The hotel industry, particularly two major groups (Huazhu and Jinjiang), has shown a strong recovery post-National Day, with RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) returning to positive year-on-year growth, even exceeding levels from 2024 [1][3][5]. - Business travel demand has significantly rebounded since May, with strong performance noted in July and August, surpassing last year's figures [1][6]. - The implementation of visa-free policies has led to a 120% year-on-year increase in overseas tourists spending in China, exceeding 2019 levels [1][7]. Key Performance Metrics - Huazhu's RevPAR has consistently remained between 95% and 99.6%, while Jinjiang's RevPAR improved to over 100% by the fourth week of October [1][3][4]. - Average Daily Rate (ADR) has remained stable compared to last year, indicating rational market competition among hotel groups [1][8]. - The overall hotel industry is expected to see a RevPAR growth of 3%-5% in 2026, with major hotel groups focusing on maintaining or increasing prices to meet budget targets [1][26]. Business Travel Insights - Business travel, which constitutes about 40%-42% of Huazhu's revenue, saw a decline of 6-10 percentage points in RevPAR during the first half of the year but has since recovered [1][12][6]. - The demand for business travel is anticipated to remain stable or slightly increase in the coming months [9]. Tourism Demand Analysis - The tourism market has shown significant growth, particularly in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, with a notable increase in foreign tourist numbers [1][7]. - Despite a slight decrease in per capita spending, the overall trend in domestic tourism remains optimistic [7]. Pricing Strategy and Market Dynamics - Hotel groups have refrained from price cuts to attract customers, focusing instead on long-term growth strategies [1][8]. - The expected budget increase for 2026 is around 3%-5%, indicating that prices are unlikely to decrease [26][27]. Competitive Landscape - Huazhu is expanding into lower-tier markets through localized development and strong operational strategies, particularly in Shenzhen and Guangzhou [4][31]. - The performance of small independent hotels is declining, with many facing operational challenges unless they join larger chains [16][19]. Future Outlook - The overall growth rate of the hotel industry is expected to slow down, with a projected growth of around 2% in 2026 [17]. - The focus will shift towards enhancing operational quality and efficiency rather than rapid expansion [19]. - The long-term outlook for the domestic tourism market remains positive, while the business market is influenced by both domestic and international factors [10]. Management Changes - Recent leadership changes in Jinjiang, including the return of a familiar figure to stabilize and refocus the business, are expected to positively impact future operations [34][36]. - Huazhu's management changes are not anticipated to significantly affect the company's strategic direction [33]. Conclusion - The hotel industry is on a recovery path with strong performance metrics, particularly in business and tourism sectors. The focus on maintaining pricing strategies and enhancing operational quality will be crucial for sustained growth in the coming years.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **hotel**, **airline**, and **duty-free** industries, highlighting their performance and future outlook post-National Day in 2025 [1][3][11]. Key Points and Arguments Hotel Industry - **Strong Performance Post-National Day**: The hotel sector showed robust performance after the National Day, driven by a recovery in business travel rather than solely relying on consumer wealth effects [1][3]. - **Positive Growth Indicators**: Five-star hotel Average Daily Rate (ADR) has stabilized, with occupancy rates improving, leading to a positive growth in September for the first time [1][5]. - **Institutional Holdings**: The hotel sector's institutional holding ratio is at a 15-year low, which, combined with improving data and valuation advantages, has led to a rebound in hotel stocks [1][6]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Jin Jiang and Shou Tour have low PE ratios for 2026, indicating potential investment value [1][6][8]. - **Expansion and New Products**: Shou Tour is expanding its standard stores and launching new products to enhance acceptance among franchisees and consumers [8]. - **Growth of Budget and Mid-range Hotels**: Jin Jiang and Huazhu are showing signs of improvement, with Jin Jiang's RevPAR showing a positive trend in October [5][9]. Airline Industry - **Recovery in Passenger Volume**: Overall passenger volume increased by 5.2% year-on-year from January to September 2025, with international routes showing a significant recovery [4][15]. - **High Load Factors**: The airline sector maintains high load factors, with expectations for continued improvement in ticket prices [13][15]. - **Airline Recommendations**: China Eastern Airlines is highlighted as a strong investment opportunity due to its rapid recovery and performance exceeding pre-pandemic levels [4][19]. - **Cost Pressures Eased**: Low oil prices and favorable exchange rates have alleviated cost pressures for airlines, contributing to improved profitability [18][21]. - **Future Pricing Trends**: Ticket prices are expected to improve in the fourth quarter, although a potential decline may occur post-Spring Festival due to weaker business demand [16][21]. Duty-Free Industry - **Sales Growth**: The duty-free sector has shown consistent sales growth, with Hainan's offshore duty-free sales achieving positive growth for the first time in 18 months [11][12]. - **Policy Optimizations**: Recent policy changes in Hainan are expected to gradually release demand, positively impacting revenue and profit recovery for the end of the year and into 2026 [12]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: There is a growing market interest in the travel-related sectors, with data indicating sustained performance beyond holiday effects [3]. - **Investment Focus**: The hotel and duty-free sectors are identified as new consumption hotspots driven by fundamental improvements, with upcoming meetings in December and March expected to provide further insights into consumer demand [22]. - **Airport Performance**: Airports like Shanghai and Baiyun are benefiting from increased air traffic, with significant year-on-year growth in passenger numbers [20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the hotel, airline, and duty-free industries.

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The travel industry is experiencing a recovery driven by the dual holiday effect, with significant increases in airline ticket and hotel prices, particularly in the hotel sector, where Average Daily Rate (ADR) has shown continuous growth since Q4 2023 [1][2] Key Points on the Travel Industry - **CPI Growth**: In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, marking the first positive growth since 2025. Service prices have been gradually recovering since March, with a 0.8% increase in October [2] - **Price Increases**: Airline ticket prices rose by 8.9% and hotel accommodation prices by 2.8% due to the holiday effect [2] - **Hotel Sector Performance**: The hotel sector has shown remarkable performance, with leading companies experiencing sustained ADR growth during the off-peak season [2] Company-Specific Insights - **Shaanxi Tourism IPO**: The successful IPO of Shaanxi Tourism marks the first approval of a tourism-related company under the new 827 policy, indicating improved conditions for consumer-related IPOs and increased support for the cultural tourism sector [3][4] - **Hotel Industry Recovery**: Companies like Huazhu and Atour have improved operational levels, while Jinjiang Hotels is expected to see significant recovery after hitting a low in Q4 2024. Data from Q3 shows signs of recovery, with further improvements noted in October [5] - **Supply Side Dynamics**: The growth rate of hotel supply has slowed, with fewer new openings from leading companies. A decrease in property rents is attracting new investors, but increased supply coupled with weakened demand has led to declining profitability, particularly in the mid-to-low-end market [6] Jinjiang Hotels - **Performance Improvement**: Jinjiang Hotels has exceeded expectations through personnel optimization, cost control, and negotiations for rent reductions, achieving over 200 million yuan in rent savings. The company’s ADR has shown positive growth, and organizational restructuring has improved internal morale [8] - **Future Projections**: The company is projected to achieve a performance of 1.5 billion yuan by 2025, with an estimated valuation of around 17 times earnings [8] Other Notable Hotel Companies - **Shoulv Hotel and Juntin**: Shoulv Hotel is noted for its relatively low valuation at about 7 times next year's earnings, with improved store openings. Juntin is recognized for its growth potential as a supplementary option [9] Airline Industry Insights - **Ticket Price Trends**: Airline ticket prices are in an upward recovery phase, with a year-on-year increase of 45% in October. This is attributed to recovering business demand, pricing strategy adjustments, and the resumption of exhibitions [10] - **International vs Domestic Routes**: International routes have outperformed domestic routes, with ticket prices increasing by approximately 10%. The high load factors and improved visa policies are expected to enhance the proportion of foreign travelers [11] - **Profitability Outlook**: Airlines are optimistic about profitability in Q4, with expectations of significant improvement over 2024. The recovery of business demand and strong performance in international routes provide a solid foundation for airline profits [12] Supply Chain Challenges - **Supply Chain Issues**: The airline industry faces several supply chain challenges, including quality crises at Boeing, production limits from the FAA, and skilled labor shortages, which are affecting aircraft manufacturing and operational capacity [13][14] Future Outlook - **2025-2026 Projections**: The supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight through Q4 2025 and into 2026, with optimism regarding ticket prices during the upcoming holiday seasons. Key airline recommendations include China National Aviation, China Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines, which are seen as having significant upward potential [15]

Core Viewpoint - Junting Hotel's stock price increased by 2.06% on November 11, with a trading volume of 275 million yuan, indicating a positive market sentiment despite a net financing outflow [1] Financing Summary - On November 11, Junting Hotel had a financing buy-in amount of 18.97 million yuan and a financing repayment of 26.96 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 7.99 million yuan [1] - The total financing and securities balance for Junting Hotel as of November 11 is 121 million yuan, which accounts for 2.61% of its market capitalization, indicating a low financing balance compared to the past year [1] - There were no shares sold or repaid in the securities lending market on November 11, with a total securities lending balance of 0 yuan, suggesting a high level of inactivity in this area [1] Business Performance Summary - As of September 30, Junting Hotel reported a total revenue of 506 million yuan for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.58% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 9.90 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year decrease of 45.92% [2] - The company has cumulatively distributed 139 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 98.85 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Structure Summary - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Junting Hotel decreased by 5.33% to 17,700, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 5.40% to 10,034 shares [2] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, the Fortune CSI Tourism Theme ETF increased its holdings by 519,000 shares, while the Huaxia CSI Tourism Theme ETF entered the list as a new shareholder with 353,800 shares [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - In Q3 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.121 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 358 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.21% [2][6] - Looking ahead, with the steady recovery of the economy and the gradual increase in investment willingness from franchisees, the hotel industry is expected to experience stable growth [2][6] - In the short term, the company plans to open 1,500 new hotels in 2025, accelerating the pace of store openings and continuously enhancing hotel product strength [2][6] - In the long term, there is significant room for expansion of mid-to-high-end hotels in lower-tier markets, supported by a high inventory of reserve stores, and ongoing upgrades of products like Home NEO are expected to further enhance brand image [2][6] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 5.782 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.81%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 755 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.36% [6] - In Q3 2025, the overall RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) decreased by 2.8%, with the economic hotel segment showing a positive growth of 1.4% [12][13] - The gross profit margin improved by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year to 44.79%, while the net profit margin slightly increased by 0.04 percentage points to 16.95% [12][13] Store Expansion and Structure Optimization - In Q3 2025, the company opened 387 new stores, resulting in a net increase of 233 stores, bringing the total number of stores to 7,501 [12][13] - The proportion of mid-to-high-end hotels increased by 0.3 percentage points to 29.6%, and the room count proportion rose by 0.4 percentage points to 42.5% [12][13] - The company has a reserve of 1,672 stores, with 71% being standard management hotels, laying a solid foundation for future expansion and structural optimization [12][13]

Group 1: Alibaba and Marriott International Strategic Cooperation - Alibaba Group and Marriott International announced a strategic AI cooperation focused on cloud infrastructure and AI application innovation in the Chinese market [1] - Marriott will integrate Alibaba's Tongyi series large models to enhance customer service and marketing through intelligent upgrades [1] - The partnership aims to establish an innovation mechanism for AI applications in hotel scenarios, with a pilot AI smart application set to launch at the Fliggy Marriott flagship store by 2026 [1] Group 2: Xibei's Store Adjustments - Xibei stated that opening and closing stores is a normal operational behavior in the restaurant industry, with dynamic adjustments based on business conditions [2] - Recent store closures in cities like Shenzhen, Shantou, and Yiwu are part of this normal adjustment process, while new stores have also opened in Harbin and Jinan [2] - The domestic restaurant market is experiencing polarization, with consumers favoring options that balance cost-effectiveness and experience, while high costs are forcing restaurants to optimize their store layouts [2] Group 3: ByteDance's Stake in Zhongtong Express - ByteDance denied rumors of becoming a new shareholder in Zhongtong Express, clarifying that it made a small investment in the company back in 2021 with a low shareholding ratio [3] - The recent increase in registered capital from 420 million to approximately 600 million yuan is attributed to internal structural adjustments within Zhongtong Express [3] - The core competitiveness of companies in the industry should focus on "network, efficiency, and service," with external capital being supportive but not decisive [3]

Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds have increased their holdings in Yuehai Investment (00270.HK) by 1.138 million shares on November 11, 2025, indicating a positive trend in investor sentiment towards the company [1]. Group 1: Shareholding Changes - In the last 5 trading days, southbound funds have increased their holdings for 5 days, with a total net increase of 8.454 million shares [1]. - Over the past 20 trading days, there have been 18 days of net increases, totaling 40.0937 million shares [1]. - As of now, southbound funds hold 511 million shares of Yuehai Investment, accounting for 7.82% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1]. Group 2: Company Overview - Yuehai Investment Co., Ltd. primarily engages in water supply and wastewater treatment as an investment holding company [2]. - The company operates through seven divisions, including water resources, property investment and development, department store operations, power generation, hotel management, and toll road operations [2].