Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Short - term investors are advised to closely monitor the impact of changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation on risk - aversion sentiment and focus on the statements of the Fed's June FOMC meeting regarding inflation, the economy, and interest rate prospects. Short - term corrections are still regarded as medium - to long - term buying opportunities [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On Tuesday, the precious metals market showed gold fluctuating and silver rising. The surrounding US dollar index rose, the 10Y US Treasury yield fell, and the US stock market declined, indicating an increase in the demand for US dollar safe - haven assets. The final closing prices were: COMEX gold 2508 contract at $3406.5 per ounce, down 0.32%; US silver 2507 contract at $37.18 per ounce, up 2.01%; SHFE gold 2508 main contract at 785.08 yuan per gram, down 1.46%; SHFE silver 2508 contract at 8864 yuan per kilogram, up 0.45% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 97.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.7%. In July, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 85.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 14.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.3%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 36.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 54.8%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 8.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 0.2% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 4.01 tons to 945.94 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 39.58 tons to 14675.36 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 20.2 tons to 1215.1 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 59.6 tons to 1378.9 tons in the week ending June 13 [3]. 3.3 Key Events This Week - The US retail sales month - on - month rate announced on Tuesday was - 0.9%, lower than the expected - 0.7%, and the previous value was revised down. The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on Tuesday maintained the third on - hold stance this year. The focus this week is on the Fed's June FOMC meeting early on Thursday. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary at 02:00 on Thursday, and Fed Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference at 02:03. The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision at 19:00 on Thursday [4]. 3.4 Technical Analysis and Trading Suggestions - For London gold, the short - term technical trend has weakened. Support levels are around 3365, with strong support at 3300, and resistance levels at 3400, 3450, and strong resistance in the 3500 area. For London silver, the short - term trend has strengthened. Support levels are in the 36.9 - 37 area, then 36, 35.5, with strong support in the 34.8 - 35 area, and the upside space has opened up to the 40 area, and even 45 is possible [5]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of precious metal futures and spot prices, including SHFE gold and silver, SGX gold and silver, CME gold and silver, and the CME gold - silver ratio [6]. - The table presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of stock, bond, and commodity markets, such as the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10Y US Treasury yield, 10Y US real interest rate, and 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread [24].

南华期货铅风险管理报告 2025年6月17日 南华有⾊⾦属研究团队 肖宇⾮ 投资咨询证号： Z0018441 林嘉玮 从业资格证号：F03145451 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1290号 铅价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 预测区间 | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 16860 | 16300-17100 | 8.95% | 17.0% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 铅风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铅主力期货合约 | 沪铅主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 17000 | | | | | 暂无 | 沪铅期权 | 暂无 | 暂无 | 暂无 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铅主力期货合约 | 沪铅主力期货合 ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - The current Sino-US tariff policy expectations continue to cause disturbances. After the first meeting of the Sino-US London Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism, there is no policy adjustment related to reciprocal tariffs or the textile and clothing sectors. During the off - season of demand, the upside space for cotton prices is limited, and there may be a short - term decline. Attention should be paid to the support around 13,000, as well as further adjustments to Sino - US policies [4] Group 2: Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for cotton is 12,800 - 13,700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0545 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.0339 [3] Risk Management Strategy Inventory Management - For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price decline, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 13,600 - 13,800. They can also sell call options (CF509C13800) to collect premiums, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 200 - 250 [3] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 12,600 - 12,800. They can also sell put options (CF509P12800) to collect premiums, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 150 - 200 [3] Group 3: Market Situation Analysis Bullish Factors - Affected by high tariffs, cotton imports this year have dropped significantly, and there is no reserve cotton sale. Although Xinjiang cotton production is high, inventory is being depleted quickly, and the spot basis remains strong. As of the end of May, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 4399800 tons [5] Bearish Factors - In the 24/25 season, the processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang is mostly around 15,000 yuan/ton, and there is still some new cotton not hedged. The downstream is in the traditional off - season, with slow sales, reduced load of spinning and weaving mills, general procurement enthusiasm for raw materials, strong wait - and - see sentiment, and continuous inventory accumulation of finished products [5] Group 4: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton 01 | 13530 | 0 | 0% | | Cotton 05 | 13535 | 5 | 0.04% | | Cotton 09 | 13525 | - 5 | - 0.04% | | Cotton Yarn 01 | 0 | - 19690 | - 100% | | Cotton Yarn 05 | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Cotton Yarn 09 | 19775 | 10 | 0.05% | [5][6] Group 5: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton Basis | 1337 | 47 | | Cotton 01 - 05 | - 5 | - 5 | | Cotton 05 - 09 | 10 | 10 | | Cotton 09 - 01 | - 5 | - 5 | | Cotton - Yarn Spread | 6250 | 0 | | Domestic - Foreign Cotton Spread | 1146 | - 89 | | Domestic - Foreign Yarn Spread | - 689 | 0 | [7] Group 6: Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes | Index | Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCI 3128B | 14862 | 42 | 0.28% | | CCI 2227B | 12968 | 36 | 0.28% | | CCI 2129B | 15172 | 44 | 0.29% | | FCI Index S | 13880 | 18 | 0.13% | | FCI Index M | 13691 | 17 | 0.12% | | FCI Index L | 13461 | 18 | 0.13% | [8]

玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/06/17 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 玻璃：供应端整体保持低位波动状态不变；价格低位，冷修预期将增强 纯碱：5月-6月厂家检修逐步兑现；出口超预期，缓解国内过剩压力 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 900-1100 | 29.21% | 78.7% | | 纯碱 | 1000-1250 | 21.17% | 20.3% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表2 | | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | 具 | | （%） | | | 玻 璃 | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏高， 担心玻璃价格下跌 | | 为了防止存货叠加损失 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The fundamentals of the LPG market are marginally improving but still under pressure, with significant geopolitical risks. It is recommended to operate with caution [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Data and Analysis 3.1 Price and Basis Changes - **Daily Price Changes**: On June 16, 2025, compared to the previous day, the prices of civil LPG in Shandong, East China, and South China changed to 4610 (down 10), 4616 (up 53), and 4720 (up 80) respectively; the price of ether - post carbon four increased by 30 to 4980. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil LPG at 4610. The PG futures price rose significantly, with the basis of the 07 contract changing to 212 (down 9) and the 07 - 09 spread changing to 178 (down 17) [1] - **Weekly Changes**: The civil LPG price increased significantly, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4603. The 07 contract basis weakened to 221 (down 130), and the 07 - 09 spread was 195 (up 10). The PG - CP spread was 18 US dollars (up 27), and the FEI - CP spread was - 19 (up 31) [1] 3.2 Market Factors - **Supply - related Factors**: The US - to - Far East arbitrage window closed. Port and factory inventories decreased. Arrivals and out - shipments declined, and it is expected that out - shipments will increase and arrivals will decrease in the future. The waiting time at the Panama Canal for VLGCs decreased [1] - **Demand - related Factors**: Chemical demand improved overall. The PDH operating rate increased to 64.3%, the alkylation operating rate increased to 48.18%, and MTBE production increased significantly. With rising temperatures, combustion demand is expected to decline [1] 3.3 Profit and Spread Analysis - **Profit Changes**: PDH production profit deteriorated, with FEI production profit lower than CP on a weekly basis and higher than CP on a daily basis. Alkylation oil profitability decreased significantly, MTBE gas - fractionation etherification profit increased, and isomerization etherification profit decreased [1] - **Spread Movements**: FEI - MOPJ and naphtha crack spreads decreased [1] 3.4 Other Information - The number of registered warrants was 9005 lots (down 335) [1]

文章来源:新浪期货 | | | | | 2025年6月17日原木主力合约2507持仓数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 増減 | 会员 | 持买单 | 増減 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | ਹ | 中信期货 | 14,003 | 3,439 | 中信期货 | 1,904 | 170 | 国泰君安 | 2,333 | 245 | | 2 | 东证期货 | 7,472 | 1,837 | 国泰君安 | 1,419 | -84 | 中信期货 | 1.682 | -562 | | 3 | 花拳期货 | 6,296 | 3,183 | 首创京都 | 1.344 | 468 | 国贸期货 | 1,605 | 14 | | 4 | 海通期货 | 5,082 | 1,977 | 创元期货 | 1,153 | 24 | 首创京都 | 1,186 | ರಿಕ | | 5 | 国泰君安 | 3,630 | 288 | 东证期货 | 1,099 | 207 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily: Geopolitical Conflicts Dominate Gold Prices in the Short Term [1] - Date: June 17, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of gold prices is mainly influenced by the fluctuations in the Middle East geopolitical situation, and investors are advised to closely monitor the development of the situation [2] - In the medium - to - long - term, the precious metals market may be bullish. In the short - term, investors should pay attention to the impact of the Middle East geopolitical situation on risk - aversion sentiment and the statements of the Fed's June FOMC meeting on inflation, the economy, and interest rate prospects [5] Summary by Directory Market Quotes - On Monday, the precious metals market saw gold prices decline and silver prices remain stable. The COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3404.3 per ounce, down 1.4%; the SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 792.3 yuan per gram, down 0.08%. The SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8858 yuan per kilogram, up 0.45%; the COMEX silver 2507 contract closed at $36.37 per ounce, up 0.04% [2] Interest Rate Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 0.2%. In July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 87.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 12.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 35.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 57.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 7.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 0% [3] - Long - term funds: The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 1.44 tons to 941.93 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's holdings increased by 39.58 tons to 14714.94 tons. In terms of inventory, the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 15.1 tons to 1194.3 tons per day; as of the week ending June 6, the SGX silver inventory decreased by 28.2 tons to 1319.3 tons per week [3] This Week's Focus - In terms of data, the overall data this week is light. Pay appropriate attention to the US retail sales data on Tuesday evening, and focus on the Fed's June FOMC meeting early on Thursday [4] - In terms of events, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday; at 02:00 on Thursday, the Fed FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary; at 02:03, Fed Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference; at 19:00 on Thursday, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision [4] Nanhua's Viewpoint - In the short - term, London gold is expected to fluctuate strongly, with resistance moving up to $3450 and strong resistance in the $3500 area; support is at $3400, and strong support is in the $3300 area. London silver adjusted in a range last week, but there is also strong buying below. The short - term support is at $36 and $35.5, and the strong support is in the $34.8 - $35 area. The upside space has opened up to the $40 area, and there is even a possibility of reaching $45. Short - term pullbacks are still regarded as medium - to - long - term buying opportunities [5] Price and Inventory Data - The report provides price data for various gold and silver contracts, including SHFE gold and silver main contracts, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver main contracts, etc., as well as inventory and position data for gold and silver, such as SHFE gold and silver inventories, CME gold and silver inventories, and ETF holdings [6][15][17] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - Data on the US dollar index, US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread are provided [23]

Core Viewpoint - Central Huijin Investment Co., Ltd. has been approved to become the actual controller of eight financial institutions under the three major Asset Management Companies (AMCs), marking a continuation of its business integration efforts after taking over the control from the Ministry of Finance in February 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: Central Huijin's Financial Institutions - The eight newly controlled financial institutions include Changcheng Guorui Securities, Dongxing Securities, Xinda Securities, Dongxing Fund Management, Xinda Australia Fund Management, Changcheng Futures, Dongxing Futures, and Xinda Futures, completing Central Huijin's full license layout in the securities, fund, and futures sectors [2][3]. - Following the approval, Central Huijin will directly or indirectly control over 20 financial institutions across banking, insurance, and securities sectors, enhancing its operational scale and influence [3]. Group 2: Market Implications and Opportunities - The integration of these institutions is expected to create a "full-chain" advantage, allowing for better collaboration in areas such as distressed asset disposal, investment banking services, and asset management product innovation [3][4]. - Analysts predict that the consolidation of brokerages under Central Huijin will lead to a new wave of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry, driven by regulatory support for supply-side reforms and the creation of leading investment banks [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The total assets of Central Huijin's brokerages have reached 3.2 trillion yuan, with expectations for increased market competition and potential mergers among leading brokerages, such as a possible integration of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) and Galaxy Securities [6][7]. - The ongoing regulatory push for the securities industry to consolidate and strengthen is anticipated to accelerate the pace of mergers and acquisitions, with a focus on creating "carrier-level" leading brokerages [6][7].

Core Points - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has released a draft for the "Regulations on the Classification Evaluation of Futures Companies," marking the fourth revision since its establishment in 2009, with a focus on seven adjustments including two major deduction items and five addition items [1][6] Group 1: Key Signals - Signal One: Stricter penalties for violations, allowing for deductions based on regulatory measures taken outside the evaluation period if violations occurred during the evaluation period [1] - Signal Two: Support for the real economy, with new indicators for "average daily positions of industrial clients" and "average daily positions of medium- and long-term fund clients" [2] - Signal Three: Upgraded competitiveness evaluation system, with market competitiveness indicators adjusted to three categories and nine items covering business types, profitability, and capital strength [3] - Signal Four: Inclusion of "insurance + futures" and party building in the special evaluation, recognizing the importance of these initiatives in supporting national strategies [4] Group 2: Deduction Standards - The deduction standards have been adjusted to balance strictness and leniency, with clear definitions of deduction scenarios [5][8] - Direct deduction items related to daily risk control are specified, with a tiered deduction system based on the severity of regulatory measures [9] - The evaluation can reflect the latest compliance status by including violations that occurred during the evaluation period but were penalized afterward [9] Group 3: Addition Indicators - The revision optimizes five dimensions of addition indicators to support industry transformation [13] - Dimension One: Enhanced service capabilities for the real economy, with a focus on industrial and medium- to long-term fund clients [15] - Dimension Two: Restructured market competitiveness addition system, with new indicators for brokerage and trading consultation businesses [16] - Dimension Three: Removal of certain evaluation indicators to avoid redundancy and encourage larger-scale operations [17][18] - Dimension Four: Adjustments to special evaluations, including the integration of party building and cultural construction into the evaluation system [19] - Dimension Five: Special incentives for companies maintaining compliance and risk management without deductions over the last three evaluation periods [20]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Current Sino-US tariff policy expectations continue to cause disturbances. After the first meeting of the Sino-US London Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism, there has been no policy adjustment regarding reciprocal tariffs or the textile and apparel sector. During the off - season of demand, the upside space for cotton prices is limited, with a possible short - term decline. Attention should be paid to the support level around 13,000, as well as further adjustments to Sino - US policies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range for cotton is predicted to be between 12,800 and 13,700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0548 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0343 [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 13,600 - 13,800 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (CF509C13800) at a 75% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 12,600 - 12,800 to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (CF509P12800) at a 75% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [3]. Market Situation Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: In the 24/25 season, northern Xinjiang cotton has high impurity content, leading to a shortage of high - quality resources. Most of the remaining cotton is in the hands of large ginning enterprises and traders, resulting in a strong cotton basis. As of the end of May, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 439.98 million tons, indicating fast de - stocking [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang in the 24/25 season is mostly around 15,000 yuan/ton, and some new cotton has not been hedged. The downstream is in the traditional off - season, with slow sales, reduced load in spinning and weaving mills, low procurement enthusiasm for raw materials, and a slight accumulation of finished products [7]. Price Data - **Futures Prices**: Cotton 01 closed at 13,495 with no change; Cotton 05 at 13,480 with no change; Cotton 09 at 13,520 with no change; Yarn 01 at 19,715 with no change; Yarn 09 at 19,770 with no change. Yarn 05 closed at 0, down 100% [6][8]. - **Price Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1332, up 88; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 15, up 10; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was - 40, down 5; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was 25, down 5; The cotton - yarn spread was 6235, up 10; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1210, up 82; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 689 with no change [8]. - **Cotton Price Indexes**: CCI 3128B was 14,852, up 68 (0.46%); CCI 2227B was 12,948, up 41 (0.32%); CCI 2129B was 15,155, up 52 (0.34%); FCI Index S was 13,955, up 112 (0.81%); FCI Index M was 13,642, down 14 (- 0.1%); FCI Index L was 13,412, down 14 (- 0.1%) [9].