Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that the tin price will fluctuate within a range and move upward. It suggests a short - term bullish trading strategy within the range of 263,000 - 271,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai tin futures main contract is 267,730 yuan/ton, up 2,970 yuan; the 6 - 7 month contract closing price is - 50 yuan, down 30 yuan - The LME 3 - month tin price is 32,960 dollars/ton, up 61 dollars - The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 29,203 lots, up 3,392 lots - The net position of the top 20 futures is 465 lots, up 649 lots - The LME tin total inventory is 2,655 tons, down 85 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 8,417 tons, down 302 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant is 8,070 tons, up 45 tons [3] 3.2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 268,400 yuan/ton, up 3,300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 268,640 yuan/ton, up 3,760 yuan - The Shanghai tin main contract basis is 670 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 35.15 dollars/ton, up 20.85 dollars [3] 3.3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 246,300 yuan/ton, down 31,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 250,300 yuan/ton, down 31,200 yuan - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 7,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 174,350 yuan/ton, up 2,150 yuan - The cumulative output of tinplate (strip) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the export volume of tinplate is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] 3.6. Industry News - From January to April this year, the National Development and Reform Commission approved and approved 27 fixed - asset investment projects with a total investment of 573.7 billion yuan. From January to May 5, the sales of automobiles, home appliances, and digital products were about 830 billion yuan. China will revise and expand the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraged for Foreign Investment" and formulate policies to encourage foreign - funded enterprises to reinvest in China - Most policies to stabilize employment and the economy will be implemented by the end of June, and policy pre - research and reserve will be carried out regularly - Internationally, the Fed will treat Moody's downgrade of the US rating as general data, and there are concerns about rising inflation pressure. Domestically, on May 20, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, both down 10 basis points [3] 3.7. Fundamental Analysis - The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is progressing, and the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, with supply expected to be released in late June - Yunnan faces raw material pressure, and Jiangxi is still restricted by scrap supply. The combined operating rate of local refined tin smelting enterprises is 57.16% - The orders of solder processing enterprises are stable after the holiday, the operating rate of tinplate enterprises is stable, but the terminal consumption is weak, and the willingness to take delivery is low. There are signs of a slowdown in inventory reduction at home and abroad [3] 3.8. Technical Analysis - The increase in positions and price indicates strong bulls, and the price has stood above the MA60 [3]

2025年5月21日工业硅主力合约2509持仓数据一览 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 増減 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ਹ | 中信期货 | 31,954 | -2,262 | 国泰君安期货 | 18,105 | 1,073 | 国泰君安期货 34.053 | | 256 | | 2 | 中信建投 | 18,860 | 7,199 | 方正中期 | 10,735 | -27 | 广发期货 | 10,359 | 329 | | 3 | 国泰君安期货 | 12,559 | -2,705 | 广发期货 | 8,840 | -148 | 中信期货 | 10,038 | 1,499 | | ব | 银河期货 | 11,131 | -3,251 | 中信建投 | 8,586 | 307 | 银河期货 | 8,787 | 1,792 | | 5 | 广发期货 | 10,863 | 6,278 | 中信期货 | 7,369 | 1,179 | ...

(*文中全合约指交易所公布持仓成交数据的所有合约) 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓9311、增仓2555，中信期货、持仓17275、增仓589，国泰君安、 持仓7862、增仓479；多头减仓前三名分别是：华泰期货、持仓3903、减仓-268，宏源期货、持仓2105、减仓-165，浙商期货、持 仓1110、减仓-44； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：宝城期货、持仓2890、增仓1232，银河期货、持仓7256、增仓658，东证期货、持 仓9480、增仓550；空头减仓前三名分别是：广发期货、持仓2739、减仓-126，国元期货、持仓1037、减仓-79，民生期货、持仓 1029、减仓-46。 文章来源:新浪期货 | | | | | 2025年5月21日30年期国债期货主力合约2509持仓数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | | 会员 - 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | | | ਹ | 中 ...

2025年5月21日黄金主力合约2508持仓数据一览 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 増減 | 会员 | 持买单 | 増減 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ਹ | 国泰君安 | 98,802 | 25,368 | 国泰君安 | 16,545 | 3,354 | 华泰期货 | 5,273 | 566 | | 2 | 中信期货 | 96,374 | 32,187 | 中信期货 | 15,329 | 2,156 | 中信期货 | 5,220 | 940 | | 3 | 东证期货 | 40,318 | 10,713 | 东证期货 | 10,856 | 793 | 国泰君安 | 4,932 | 720 | | 4 | 国信期货 | 34,528 | 14,289 | 中财期货 | 8,900 | 338 | 齐盛期货 | 4,845 | 1,086 | | 5 | 银河期货 | 22,256 | 8,596 | 国投期货 | 6,972 | et | 东证期货 | 3,72 ...

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至5月21日收盘主力合约白银2508,涨跌+2.04%,成交量88.29万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净 多，差额头寸为34979手。 白银期货全合约总计成交119.24万手，比上一日新增51.07万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓55.39万手，比上一日增加2.93万手。全 合约前20席位空头持仓38.97万手，比上一日增加1.71万手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为国泰君安，总持仓100992、中信期货，总持仓81299、银河期货，总持仓39737；空头前三席 位为中信期货，总持仓54197、国泰君安，总持仓50666、东证期货，总持仓24483； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：国泰君安、持仓30652、增仓7319，东证期货、持仓18336、增仓5369，华泰期 货、持仓13791、增仓5004；多头减仓前三名分别是：东亚期货、持仓8210、减仓-1747，齐盛期货、持仓8240、减仓-1009，广发 期货、持仓6636、减仓-751； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：中泰期货、持仓6396、增仓3225，中信期货、持仓21104、增仓3160，方 ...

贵金属日报：持续震荡 中长期维持看涨 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月21日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属价格明显上涨，周边美指回落，10Y美债收益率走高，美股微跌欧股上涨。据媒体报道，美 国情报部门发现，以色列正准备袭击伊朗，推升周三亚盘早盘时段伦敦金一度升破3300关口，原油亦大 涨。最终黄金2506合约收报3292.6美元/盎司，+1.83%；美白银2507合约收报于33.26美元/盎司， +2.32%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报754.38元/克，+0.48%；SHFE白银2506合约收8074元/千 克，-0.21%。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为94.7%，降息25个基点的概率为 5.3%；美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为70.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为28.4%，累计降息50个基点 的概率为1.4%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率31.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为51.6%，累计降息50 个基点的概率为16.3%，累计降息75个基点的概率为0.8%。长线基 ...

Report Title - Nickel & Stainless Steel: Expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The intraday market showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The fundamental logic of the market is becoming more prominent. There is an expectation of increased supply in the nickel ore market as the impact of the rainy season in the Philippines weakens. The price of nickel iron has stopped falling and rebounded, which may provide some support. The new energy chain may face a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term. The impact of subsequent tariff policies on the macro - level should be closely monitored [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Nickel Price Forecast and Management Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 119,000 - 129,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 13.64% and a historical percentile of 0.2% [2] - **Inventory Management Strategies**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has a risk of devaluation, short Shanghai nickel futures according to inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline risks (60% hedging ratio), and sell call options (50% hedging ratio) [2] - **Procurement Management Strategies**: When a company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [2] 2. Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Reaching a tariff agreement between China and the United States, the Philippine government's plan to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025, the implementation of a new resource tax in Indonesia on April 26th leading to an overall increase in cost, and the lower - than - expected US CPI data increasing the expectation of interest rate cuts [4] - **Negative Factors**: The end of the rainy season in the Philippines leading to increased ore supply, the weakening support of the MHP nickel sulfate chain, the continued negative feedback in the stainless - steel industry with the cost support at the nickel - iron end continuously declining, and the high stainless - steel inventory with no obvious improvement in demand [4] 3. Market Data - **Nickel Disk Daily Data**: The latest price of Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 122,870 yuan/ton (0% change), and the LME nickel 3M price is 15,500 US dollars/ton (- 0.86% change). The trading volume is 109,167 lots (0% change), the open interest is 63,519 lots (0% change), the warehouse receipt quantity is 23,142 tons (- 1.40% change), and the basis of the main contract is - 1,735 yuan/ton (- 9.2% change) [5] - **Stainless - Steel Disk Daily Data**: The latest price of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,840 yuan/ton (0% change). The trading volume is 133,035 lots (0% change), the open interest is 128,677 lots (0% change), the warehouse receipt quantity is 143,780 tons (- 8.05% change), and the basis of the main contract is 720 yuan/ton (2.13% change) [6] - **Nickel Industry Inventory Data**: The domestic social inventory is 44,151 tons (+ 63 tons), the LME nickel inventory is 202,098 tons (+ 90 tons), the stainless - steel social inventory is 980.7 tons (- 8.4 tons), and the nickel pig iron inventory is 29,554.5 tons (+ 1,158 tons) [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the log market will experience a pattern of weak supply and demand from June to July, with the market expected to fluctuate weakly. It also suggests paying attention to the spot feedback of subsequent supply reduction and the subsequent delivery game [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 750 - 820, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 17.24% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 76.9% [2]. Log Hedging Strategy Table - **Inventory Management**: For high - inventory levels worried about price drops, strategies include short - selling log futures (lg2507, sell, 25%, entry range 850 - 790) to lock in profits and offset production costs; buying put options (lg2507P800, buy, entry range 9.5 - 14) to prevent price drops and selling call options (lg2507C85, sell, 50%) to reduce capital costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and aiming to lock in procurement costs, strategies include buying log futures (lg2507, buy, 50%, entry range 750 - 800); selling put options (lg2507P75, sell, 75%, entry range 5.5 - 12) to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if prices fall [2]. Core Contradictions - Yesterday, the spot prices of various specifications at Shandong Rizhao Port decreased. The slope of the Contango structure has flattened compared to last week. In April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new housing starts was - 23.8%, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs was 2.185 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%, with the decline rate expanding compared to the previous month and a month - on - month decrease of 5.7%. Due to the decline in foreign shipping profits in April and May, the contract signing volume decreased, and the reduction in arrival volume will be reflected in June. Port inventory is 3.41 million m³, with a week - on - week difference of - 20,000 m³ and a year - on - year decline of 3.4%. The daily average port outbound volume is 61,400 m³, with a week - on - week difference of - 1,000 m³. The price difference between wood squares and logs in the Rizhao area has been expanding, and downstream profits have increased. Currently, the basis of almost all specifications of wood after conversion is positive, with no obvious short - hedging profits [3]. Bullish Interpretation - Due to continuous import losses, traders have the intention to jointly support prices. Attention should be paid to the spot feedback of the subsequent reduction in arrival volume [4]. - Macroeconomic policies are exerting force. Bearish Interpretation - Demand is weaker than expected, and sales are slow. - The subsequent shipping volume is expected to recover [7]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in March 2025 was 1.71 million m³, a month - on - month increase of 450,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [9]. - **Inventory**: As of May 16, 2025, the national port inventory was 3.41 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 3.4%; Shandong port inventory was 1,899,000 m³, a week - on - week increase of 31,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%; Jiangsu port inventory was 1,118,568 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 24,968 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 30.8% [9]. - **Demand**: As of May 16, 2025, the national daily average port outbound volume of logs was 61,400 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 15.0%; Shandong's daily average outbound volume was 32,000 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%; Jiangsu's daily average outbound volume was 22,900 m³, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 28.7% [9]. - **Profit**: As of May 23, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 50 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/m³; the spruce import profit was - 116 yuan/m³, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/m³ [9]. - **Main Spot Prices**: On May 19, 2025, the price of 3.9 medium (3.8A) logs at Rizhao Port was 750 yuan/m³, a day - on - day decrease of 10 yuan/m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%; the price of 4 medium (3.8A) logs at Taicang Port was 780 yuan/m³, with no day - on - day change and a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%; the price of 5.9 medium (5.8A) logs at Rizhao Port was 770 yuan/m³, a day - on - day decrease of 10 yuan/m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 8.3%; the price of 6 medium (5.8A) logs at Taicang Port was 790 yuan/m³, with no day - on - day change and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8% [9].

2025年5月20日焦炭主力合约2509持仓数据一览 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | J | 国泰君安 | 3,694 | -634 | 银河期货 | 6,642 | 99 | 国泰君安 | 4,931 | 77 | | 2 | 中信期货 | 3,526 | -1,044 | 中信期货 | 4,994 | 130 | 中信期货 | 3,806 | 192 | | 3 | 东证期货 | 1,683 | -307 | 国泰君安 | 3,902 | 15 | 东证期货 | 3,576 | 153 | | 4 | 浙商期货 | 1,144 | -273 | 永安期货 | 3,651 | ਦਰ | 华泰期货 | 3,403 | 78 | | 5 | 海证期货 | 1,003 | 357 | 东证期货 | 2,192 | J8 | 浙商期货 | 2,668 | -24 | | 6 | 银河期货 | 987 ...

| | | | | 2025年5月20日集运指数欧线期货全合约持仓数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖里 | 增减 | | J | 海通期货 | 16,799 | -361 | 国泰君安 | 4,707 | -750 | 国泰君安 | 5,135 | -259 | | 2 | 国泰君安 | 12,729 | -5,849 | 中信期货 | 4,287 | -200 | 中信期货 | 4,980 | -38 | | 3 | 中信期货 | 9,220 | -3,239 | を素期货 | 3,448 | 73 | 花泰期货 | 4,537 | 473 | | ব | 徽商期货 | 8,546 | -1,889 | 东证期货 | 2,967 | 135 | 银河期货 | 3,697 | 19 | | 5 | 东证期货 | 7,651 | -2,826 | 海通期货 | 2,652 | -140 ...