氯碱日报 | 2025-05-21 主力下游采购价再上调，烧碱盘面震荡运行 氯碱观点 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4949元/吨（-10）；华东基差-129元/吨（+0）;华南基差-69元/吨（+10）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4820元/吨（-10）；华南电石法报价4880元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格605元/吨（+0）；电石价格2980元/吨（+0）；电石利润206元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-658元/吨（+47）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-526元/吨（+126）；PVC出口利润0.3美元/吨（+0.6）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存40.6万吨（-2.0）；PVC社会库存39.7万吨（-1.3）；PVC电石法开工率75.52%（-4.47%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.06%（-2.20%）；PVC开工率74.01%（-3.84%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量63.2万吨（+11.1）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2545元/吨（-41）；山东32%液碱基差80元/吨（+41）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价840元/吨（+ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the achievements of Cui Ermei, a technician at Haohua Yuhang Chemical Co., who has made significant contributions to the company's innovation and efficiency in the production of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) [1][2]. Group 1: Professional Development and Contributions - Cui Ermei joined Haohua Yuhang in 2002 after graduating from university and quickly immersed herself in practical training to master the equipment and technology [2]. - She has authored multiple technical papers, including studies on the use of low-mercury catalysts in PVC production and the recycling of waste sodium hypochlorite [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Innovations - Under Cui's leadership, the company achieved a reduction in catalyst consumption to 0.85 kg per ton of PVC, generating an annual economic benefit of over 10 million yuan [4]. - The implementation of an automatic slag discharge technology for wet acetylene generators reduced chemical oxygen demand (COD) and saved 34.9 tons of electricity annually [5]. - A project led by Cui to modify the catalyst introduction process in 108 cubic meter polymerization kettles increased PVC production by over 7,000 tons per year, resulting in an additional economic benefit of over 4 million yuan [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **LLDPE & PP**: The overall trading was weak on Monday, and market sentiment deteriorated. For plastics, maintenance increased and some production shifted before early June, with low imports. Demand improved in the short - term due to tariff cuts, and there was an expectation of inventory reduction. For PP, the maintenance peak was in late May, and subsequent supply pressure would increase. Demand had short - term benefits but mid - term concerns. The static fundamentals were okay. For single - side trading, it was advisable to go short on rallies, and the LP spread was expected to widen [4]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: For caustic soda, in the short - term, supply pressure was limited during the concentrated maintenance period. Demand was supported by the potential resumption of some alumina production and new production lines. The purchase price of mainstream Shandong factories increased, and the futures price might rise further, but there were risks. It was recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors could try positive spreads cautiously. For PVC, the short - term rebound was supported by macro - stimulation, export, and supply - demand factors, but there was an over - supply pressure in the long - term. It was expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with a resistance level of around 5100 for the 09 contract [26]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: For PX, short - term supply was tight, and demand was supported, but the upside was limited. PX09 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 6600 - 7000, and PX9 - 1 was in a short - term positive spread situation. For PTA, the supply - demand situation was expected to weaken. TA09 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 4600 - 5000, and TA9 - 1 was short - term positive spread and medium - term negative spread. For MEG, there was an expectation of inventory reduction, and short - term support was strong. It was advisable to sell put options on EG2509 - P - 4300 and go for positive spreads on EG9 - 1. For short - fiber, the absolute price was expected to adjust, and attention could be paid to the opportunity to widen the processing margin. For bottle - chips, the absolute price followed the raw materials, and attention could be paid to the opportunity to widen the processing margin at the lower end of the range [30]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices were oscillating, and the future logic would shift from macro to fundamental factors. If OPEC's actual production increase was as expected, the market would be under pressure; otherwise, the pressure would be relieved. There was still a short - term geopolitical premium. Oil prices were likely to fluctuate within a certain range. The recommended trading strategy was a band - trading approach, with the WTI range at [59, 69], Brent at [61, 71], and SC at [450, 510]. It was advisable to buy volatility in options trading [34]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory showed an inflection point, and the expected increase in imports would lead to inventory accumulation and a weaker basis. The 09 contract was expected to decline in the short - term, and it was advisable to add positions at 2350, targeting 2050 - 2100. It was also advisable to reduce short - positions on the 69 reverse spread [37]. - **Styrene**: Styrene rebounded strongly. Tariff cuts improved demand expectations, and the inventory was at a low level. However, there were risks, including high inventory in the 3S products and weak pure - benzene supply - demand. It was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and be bearish in the medium - term. Attention could be paid to the resistance level of 7800 - 7900 for the near - month contract, and the opportunity for the EB - BZ spread to widen [42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PE & PP Price and Spread - **PE Futures**: L2505 closed at 7330 on May 19, down 190 (- 2.53%) from May 16; L2509 closed at 7238, up 2 (0.03%) [1]. - **PP Futures**: PP2505 closed at 7137 on May 19, down 111 (- 1.53%) from May 16; PP2509 closed at 7078, down 15 (- 0.21%) [1]. - **Spreads**: L2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 192 (- 67.61%) to 92; PP2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 96 (- 61.94%) to 59 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: East China PP拉丝 spot price was 7160 on May 19, down 10 (- 0.14%); North China LLDPE film material spot price was 7300, unchanged [1]. 3.2 PE & PP Upstream and Downstream开工率 and库存 - **PE开工率**: PE device开工率 was 79.5% on May 16, down 4.55 (- 5.41%) from the previous value; PE downstream weighted开工率 was 39.3%, up 0.57 (1.47%) [2]. - **PE库存**: PE enterprise inventory was 52.8 million tons on May 16, down 4.76 (- 8.27%) from the previous value; PE social inventory was 61.1 million tons, down 0.71 (- 1.15%) [2]. - **PP开工率**: PP device开工率 was 76.6% on May 16, down 3.19 (- 4.0%) from the previous value; PP downstream weighted开工率 was 49.8%, up 0.33 (0.7%) [3]. - **PP库存**: PP enterprise inventory was 60.4 million tons on May 16, down 7.20 (- 10.64%) from the previous value; PP trader inventory was 15.9 million tons, up 1.61 (11.28%) [3]. 3.3 PVC & Caustic Soda Price and Spread - **Caustic Soda**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price was 2625 on May 19, up 31.3 (1.2%); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price was 2800, up 40.0 (1.4%) [25]. - **PVC**: East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price was 4840 on May 19, unchanged; East China ethylene - based PVC market price was 5050, unchanged [25]. - **Futures**: SH2505 was 2563 on May 19, up 36.0 (1.4%); SH2509 was 2586, up 51.0 (2.0%); V2505 was 4834, up 14.0 (0.3%); V2509 was 4959, up 12.0 (0.2%) [25]. 3.4 PVC & Caustic Soda Supply, Demand and库存 - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry开工率 was 85.8% on May 16, down 1.7 (- 1.9%); PVC total开工率 was 74.0%, down 3.8 (- 4.9%) [25]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry开工率 was 77.0% on May 16, down 2.7 (- 3.3%); viscose staple fiber industry开工率 was 80.7%, down 0.3 (- 0.4%); printing and dyeing industry开机率 was 63.2%, up 2.6 (4.2%) [25][26]. - **库存**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 19.4 million tons on May 15, up 0.1 (0.3%); PVC upstream factory inventory was 40.6 million tons, down 2.0 (- 4.7%); PVC total social inventory was 39.7 million tons, down 1.3 (- 3.1%) [26]. 3.5 Polyester Industry Chain Price and Spread - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) was 65.54 on May 16, up 0.13 (0.2%); WTI crude oil (June) was 62.69, up 0.3% [30]. - **Downstream Polyester Products**: POY150/48 price was 7025 on May 16, down 25 (- 0.4%); FDY150/96 price was 7310, unchanged [30]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX was 841 on May 19, up 2 (0.2%); PX spot price (RMB) was 6971, down 66 (- 0.9%) [30]. 3.6 Polyester Industry Chain开工率 and库存 - **开工率**: Asian PX开工率 was 67.5% on May 16, down 3.3 (- 4.7%); China PX开工率 was 74.1%, down 4.5 (- 5.7%); PTA开工率 was 73.0%, up 3.9% [30]. - **库存**: MEG port inventory was 75.1 million tons on May 19, down 0.8 (- 1.1%); MEG to - port expectation was 10.9 million tons, up 5.4 [30]. 3.7 Crude Oil Price and Spread - **Crude Oil**: Brent was 65.54 on May 20, up 0.13 (0.20%) from May 19; WTI was 62.75, up 0.06 (0.10%) [34]. - **Spreads**: Brent M1 - M3 was 1.30 on May 20, up 0.18 (16.07%); WTI M1 - M3 was 1.20, unchanged; SC M1 - M3 was 3.00, down 1.20 (- 28.57%) [34]. 3.8 Crude Oil Product Price and Spread - **Prices**: NYM RBOB was 214.07 on May 20, up 0.19 (0.09%) from May 19; NYM ULSD was 213.04, up 0.27 (0.13%); ICE Gasoil was 617.25, down 1.75 (- 0.28%) [34]. - **Spreads**: RBOB M1 - M3 was 7.87 on May 20, down 0.14 (- 1.75%); ULSD M1 - M3 was 5.00, unchanged; Gasoil M1 - M3 was 9.00, up 1.00 (12.50%) [34]. 3.9 Methanol Price and Spread - **Futures**: MA2505 closed at 2300 on May 19, down 53 (- 2.25%) from May 16; MA2509 closed at 2272, down 12 (- 0.53%) [37]. - **Spreads**: MA2505 - 2509 spread was 28 on May 19, down 41 (- 59.42%) from May 16 [37]. - **Spot Prices**: Inner Mongolia northern line spot price was 2073 on May 19, down 58 (- 2.70%); Henan Luoyang spot price was 2210, down 20 (- 0.90%); Port Taicang spot price was 2340, down 33 (- 1.37%) [37]. 3.10 Methanol库存 and开工率 - **库存**: Methanol enterprise inventory was 33.777% on May 16, up 3.4 (11.14%) from the previous value; Methanol port inventory was 48.4 million tons, down 7.8 (- 13.88%) [37]. - **开工率**: Upstream domestic enterprise开工率 was 75.5% on May 16, down 0.2 (- 0.20%); Downstream external - procurement MTO device开工率 was 75.68%, up 8.5 (12.67%) [37]. 3.11 Styrene Price and Spread - **Upstream**: Brent crude oil (June) was 65.5 on May 19, up 0.1 (0.2%); CFR Japan naphtha was 569.0, up 4.0 (0.7%) [39]. - **Spot & Futures**: Styrene East China spot price was 8025 on May 19, up 75.0 (0.9%); EB2506 was 7779.0, up 118.0 (1.5%); EB2507 was 7613.0, up 109.0 (1.5%) [40]. - **Import & Profit**: Styrene CFR China was 946.0 on May 19, up 14.0 (1.5%); Styrene import profit was 96.6, up 106.5 (1079.4%) [41]. 3.12 Styrene产业链开工率 and库存 - **开工率**: Domestic pure - benzene comprehensive开工率 was 70.7% on May 16, down 2.6 (- 3.5%); Styrene开工率 was 71.3%, down 0.9 (- 1.3%) [42]. - **库存**: Pure - benzene port inventory was 12.3 on May 15, up 0.3 (2.5%); Styrene port inventory was 9.3, down 0.5 (- 4.9%) [42].

氯碱日报 | 2025-05-20 山东下游采购价上调，烧碱盘面震荡上行 氯碱观点 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4959元/吨（+12）；华东基差-129元/吨（-12）;华南基差-79元/吨（-12）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4830元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4880元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格605元/吨（+0）；电石价格2980元/吨（+0）；电石利润206元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-658元/吨（+47）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-526元/吨（+126）；PVC出口利润-0.2美元/吨（+9.1）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存40.6万吨（-2.0）；PVC社会库存39.7万吨（-1.3）；PVC电石法开工率75.52%（-4.47%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.06%（-2.20%）；PVC开工率74.01%（-3.84%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量63.2万吨（+11.1）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2586元/吨（+51）；山东32%液碱基差39元/吨（-20）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价840元/吨（+ ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector in China is maintaining its development momentum despite external challenges, supported by strong domestic demand and favorable policies, with a notable recovery in product demand driven by various industries [1][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In Q1, the chemical sector's 529 listed companies reported a total revenue of 621.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 15.33%, while net profit reached 36.208 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 1.58% [1]. - The refrigerant industry benefited from regulatory policies, leading to a revenue increase of 23.31% to 14.654 billion yuan and a net profit surge of 140.16% to 1.77 billion yuan [2]. - The chlor-alkali industry saw a net profit increase of 84.55% to 3.117 billion yuan, despite a revenue decline of 13.98% to 45.922 billion yuan [2]. - The food and feed additive sector achieved a revenue of 37.773 billion yuan, up 4.21%, with net profit rising 75.57% to 5.369 billion yuan [3]. - The agricultural chemical sector reported a revenue of 49.378 billion yuan, down 6.51%, but net profit increased by 25.12% to 3.093 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The organic silicon industry faced significant challenges, with net profit dropping by 37.74% despite stable revenue [4]. - The titanium dioxide sector experienced a revenue decline of 14.35% and a net profit drop of 35.61% due to high production levels and weak downstream demand [4]. - The nitrogen fertilizer industry reported a revenue decrease of 4.28% and a significant net profit decline of 56.82% [4]. - The tire industry showed a revenue increase of 6.34% but faced a net profit decline of 24.84%, attributed to rising production costs [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The refrigerant industry is expected to maintain its growth cycle due to quota systems and increasing downstream demand [6]. - The agricultural chemical market is anticipated to stabilize as the peak usage season approaches, with active trading expected [6]. - The chemical industry must navigate challenges such as increased competition in the titanium dioxide market and the need for innovation in the daily chemical sector [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For caustic soda, in the short term, the supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period, and the demand from the alumina sector has improved. Supported by the fundamentals and positive macro - drivers from the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the spot price is strong. However, attention should be paid to the price acceptance of non - aluminum sectors and the valuation of caustic soda after the reduction of coal and electricity costs. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the resistance level of the near - month contract at around 2550 [3]. - For PVC, stimulated by the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations, the domestic commodity atmosphere is positive. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of PVC is limited due to concentrated maintenance, limited inventory pressure compared to the same period, and the expectation of rush exports of PVC products. But in the medium - to - long term, PVC still shows obvious over - supply pressure due to the lack of effective boost in the real estate market. It is recommended to wait and see, with the resistance level of the 09 contract at around 5150 [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda Futures and Spot**: The price of caustic soda has fluctuated due to various factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand changes, and alumina procurement prices. Recently, the easing of Sino - US tariff conflicts and the increase in alumina procurement willingness have led to a stronger market [7]. - **Caustic Soda Profit**: The current integrated profit is at a relatively high level in the same period of the past three years [13]. - **Caustic Soda Supply**: As of May 15, the national and Shandong regional weighted average operating rates decreased. In the second quarter, more maintenance is expected, and the operating rate will decline compared to the first quarter. The inventory has decreased from the high point, and the current supply - demand pressure is limited, supporting the increase in the spot price [24]. - **Caustic Soda Device Dynamics**: Many companies in different regions have carried out maintenance or production capacity adjustments, and there are also plans for new production capacity to be put into operation in 2025 [25]. - **Alumina**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, there are plans to put into operation 1230 million tons of alumina production capacity, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The new production lines stimulate the demand for caustic soda, and Shandong alumina plants have continuously raised the purchase price, supporting the spot price of caustic soda. However, the medium - term profit of alumina is still worrying [29][36]. - **Bauxite**: The price has declined, which may further drive down the price of alumina [37]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The weekly production remains at a high level [43]. - **Non - Aluminum Downstream**: The industry is fragmented, and the impact of tariffs needs to be monitored [47]. - **Caustic Soda Export**: The spot price has risen, and the estimated export profit compression window may close [54]. 3.2 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **PVC Futures and Spot**: The price of PVC has fluctuated due to factors such as energy - saving and carbon - reduction news, supply - demand changes, and macro - sentiment. Recently, the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the limited supply - demand contradiction during the concentrated maintenance period have led to a price rebound [61]. - **PVC Profit**: The overall industry profit is relatively low [67]. - **Calcium Carbide**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, the industry profit is under pressure, and the driving force for PVC is limited [72]. - **PVC Supply**: In April 2025, the production of PVC powder was 1.9264 million tons, and the cumulative production from January to April was 7.9262 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. As of May 15, the overall operating rate of PVC powder decreased. The second quarter is the concentrated period of seasonal maintenance, and the operating rate will decline compared to the first quarter [83]. - **PVC Device Dynamics**: Many companies have carried out maintenance, and there are also plans for new production capacity to be put into operation in the future [84]. - **PVC Downstream Demand**: The two major downstream sectors of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate sector still has a negative impact on demand. The hard - product performance is average, and the soft - product performance is relatively better. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the same period in the past five years, and both raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [92]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction of real estate is still weak, and attention should be paid to whether housing prices can stabilize effectively [93]. - **PVC Inventory**: After the festival, the inventory continued to decline, and the pressure compared to the same period was limited [100]. - **PVC Outer Market**: As of May 15, the Asian PVC market price was stable on a weekly basis. India's high imports are expected to continue, which theoretically benefits China's exports. However, the long - term implementation of India's BIS and anti - dumping duties will have a negative impact on PVC [118]. - **PVC Import and Export**: The US tariff has an impact on the export of terminal products. The BIS extension in India may benefit exports in the short term, but long - term policies need further attention [118].

姓名： 郭庆 从业资格号： F3049926 交易咨询证书号：Z0016007 联系电话： 15628875631 公司地址：济南市经七路86号证券大厦 客服电话：0531-81916257 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 目 录 CONTENTS 02 氯碱价格 03 烧碱供应 04 氯碱需求 01 氯碱综述 中泰期货烧碱周报 2025年5月19日 --------中美贸易关税缓和 铝土矿因素扰动氧化铝、烧碱期货 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | | | 烧碱产业链简述 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 产量 | 上周中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为82.6%，较上周环比-1.3%。西北、西南新增重启或降负，带动负荷不同程度下滑，华北检修及重启并存，负荷提升。其 | | | | 中山东产能利用率-1.8%至86.8%。本周华中、华东均有装置减产及检修，西北、华北、西南装置复产，因此综合来看，预计本周烧碱产能利用率降至82.9%左右，周产量80.53 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View PVC and Caustic Soda - In the short term, the supply pressure of caustic soda is limited during the concentrated maintenance period, and the demand from the alumina sector has improved. Supported by fundamental supply - demand and positive macro - drivers, the spot price of caustic soda tends to be strong. However, attention should be paid to the price acceptance of non - aluminum sectors and the valuation of caustic soda. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7]. - For PVC, in the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is limited due to concentrated maintenance and limited inventory pressure. There is an expectation of rush - exporting PVC products. But in the medium and long term, there is an obvious over - supply pressure. It is recommended to wait and see, with a short - term rebound and a medium - term short - selling approach [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, in the short term, the supply is tight and the demand is supported, but the upward pressure on crude oil and the possible production cut of downstream products may put pressure on PX. It is recommended to treat it as a high - level shock, exit the PX09 - 1 positive spread, and pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity [12]. - For PTA, the short - term supply - demand is tight, but there is an expectation of weakening. It is recommended to treat it as a high - level shock, exit the TA09 - 1 positive spread at a high level, and pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity [12]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to reduce inventory in May, and it is recommended to take profit on the short - put option EG2509 - P - 4250 seller and conduct a long spread on EG9 - 1 [12]. - For short - fiber, the short - term inventory pressure is not large, but the processing fee is compressed. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA for single - side trading and expand the processing fee at a low level [12]. - For bottle - chips, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing fee at the lower edge of the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range [12]. Styrene The short - term rebound of styrene is supported by low inventory and improved demand expectations. However, the high - production and high - inventory problems of 3S products and the poor supply - demand of pure benzene may limit the rebound height. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance above 7800 - 7900 in the near - month [18]. Methanol The inland valuation of methanol has a downward pressure, the port starts the inventory - accumulation period, and the 09 contract is under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell the MA09 contract at a high level [22]. Crude Oil The overnight oil price continued to decline due to the progress of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation. The short - term market will be mainly in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and capture volatility - amplification opportunities in the option market [26]. PE and PP The spot sentiment of PE and PP has weakened. The supply pressure will gradually decrease in May, but the cost - end rebound compresses the profit. Attention should be paid to the restocking and exporting of plastic products [29]. Urea The core logic of the rise in urea futures is the boost of the clear export policy. The short - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, but the actual increase depends on the policy implementation and export orders. The short - term disk will be in a wide - range consolidation [90]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures - On May 15, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and 50% liquid caustic soda were 2593.8 yuan/ton and 2760.0 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC and ethylene - based PVC were 4880.0 yuan/ton and 5100.0 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - The price differences and changes of SH and V series futures contracts were also provided [2]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - For caustic soda, the FOB price at East China ports on May 8 was 395.0 dollars/ton, with a decrease of 5.0 dollars/ton compared to May 1 [3]. - For PVC, the CFR prices in Southeast Asia and India remained unchanged from May 1 to May 8. The FOB price of calcium - carbide - based PVC at Tianjin Port decreased by 10.0 dollars/ton [4]. Supply - The caustic soda industry's operating rate on May 9 was 87.5%, and the PVC's total operating rate was 77.9%, both showing an increase [5]. Demand - The operating rates of the alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries were provided, with some showing an increase [6]. - The operating rates of PVC downstream products and the pre - sales volume were also provided, with some showing an increase and the pre - sales volume showing a decrease [7]. Inventory - The inventory data of liquid caustic soda and PVC were provided, with some showing an increase and some showing a decrease [7]. Polyester Industry Chain Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - The price and cash - flow data of various polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, etc., and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [12]. PX - related Prices and Spreads - The price data of CFR China PX, PX spot, and futures, and the price differences such as PX - crude oil, PX - naphtha, etc., and their changes were provided [12]. PTA - related Prices and Spreads - The price data of PTA spot and futures, and the price - difference data such as PTA basis, PTA processing fee, etc., and their changes were provided [12]. MEG - related Prices and Spreads - The price data of MEG spot and futures, and the price - difference data such as MEG basis, MEG processing fee, etc., and their changes were provided [12]. Industry Chain Operating Rates - The operating rates of the Asian PX, Chinese PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester industries and their changes were provided [12]. Styrene Upstream - The price data of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and other upstream products and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [15]. Spot and Futures - The price data of styrene spot and futures and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [16]. Overseas Quotes and Import Profits - The price data of styrene's overseas quotes and import profits and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [17]. Industry Chain Operating Rates and Profits - The operating rates and profit data of domestic pure benzene, styrene, PS, EPS, ABS, etc., and their changes were provided [18]. Inventory - The inventory data of pure benzene, styrene, PS, EPS, ABS, etc., and their changes were provided [18]. Methanol Price and Spreads - The price data of methanol futures contracts, the price differences between contracts, the basis, and the regional price differences, and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [22]. Inventory - The inventory data of methanol enterprises, ports, and the weekly arrival volume, and their changes were provided [22]. Up - and Down - stream Operating Rates - The operating rates of methanol upstream enterprises, downstream MTO devices, formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE, etc., and their changes were provided [22]. Crude Oil Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - The price data of Brent, WTI, SC crude oils, and the price differences such as Brent - WTI, SC - Brent, etc., and their changes on May 16 compared to May 15 were provided [26]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - The price data of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, ICE Gasoil, and the price differences between contracts, and their changes were provided [26]. Refined Oil Crack Spreads - The crack - spread data of various refined oils in different regions and their changes were provided [26]. PE and PP Price and Spreads - The price data of PE and PP futures contracts, the price differences between contracts, the basis, and the prices of various PE and PP products, and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [29]. Up - and Down - stream Operating Rates - The operating rates of PE and PP devices, downstream weighted operating rates, and their changes were provided [29]. Inventory - The inventory data of PE and PP enterprises, social inventories, and their changes were provided [29]. Urea Futures - The price data of urea futures contracts, the price differences between contracts, the main - contract positions, and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [82][83][84]. Upstream Raw Materials - The price data of upstream raw materials such as anthracite, steam coal, synthetic ammonia, etc., and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [85]. Spot Market - The spot - market price data of urea in different regions, the cross - regional price differences, the basis, and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [86][87]. Downstream Products - The price data of downstream products such as melamine, compound fertilizer, etc., and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [88]. Fertilizer Market - The price data of various fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate, sulfur, potassium chloride, etc., and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [89]. Supply and Demand - The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order - day data of urea, and their changes were provided [90].

氯碱日报 | 2025-05-16 山东下游采购价再上调，烧碱盘面震荡走高 氯碱观点 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5041元/吨（+55）；华东基差-141元/吨（+45）;华南基差-81元/吨（+35）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4900元/吨（+100）；华南电石法报价4960元/吨（+90）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格605元/吨（+0）；电石价格2980元/吨（+0）；电石利润206元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-705元/吨（-116）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-652元/吨（+89）；PVC出口利润3.0美元/吨（+3.9）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存42.6万吨（+1.5）；PVC社会库存41.0万吨（+0.6）；PVC电石法开工率75.52%（-4.47%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.06%（-2.20%）；PVC开工率74.01%（-3.84%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量52.1万吨（-6.3）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2567元/吨（+37）；山东32%液碱基差27元/吨（-37）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价830元/吨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry [2][41]. Core Insights - The basic chemical industry is experiencing overall profit pressure, with a divergence in performance across sub-industries. In 2024, the industry is expected to see revenue growth without profit increase, with a slight decline in chemical product price indices and continued low demand globally [4][19]. - In 2024, the overall revenue of the chemical industry is projected to be 28,649.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.96%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1,080.70 billion, a decrease of 7.10% [4][15]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a slight improvement, with revenue reaching 6,769.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.30%, and net profit of 337.50 billion, an increase of 5.58% [4][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The chemical industry is in a low prosperity phase, with a competitive landscape intensifying and continued pressure on product prices and profitability. The overall gross profit margin for the industry is 14.57%, down by 0.65 percentage points year-on-year [4][15]. 2. Sub-Industry Performance - In 2024, the top five sub-industries by revenue growth are rubber products (+23.27%), modified plastics (+16.60%), nylon and polyester (+14.65%), membrane materials (+12.56%), and other plastic products (+9.70%). The top five by net profit growth are nitrogen fertilizers (+145.81%), chlor-alkali (+122.69%), dyeing chemicals (+119.16%), compound fertilizers (+59.81%), and rubber additives (+42.74%) [6][33]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the leading sub-industries by revenue growth are compound fertilizers (+26.73%), modified plastics (+22.35%), civil explosives (+20.07%), potassium fertilizers (+19.93%), and synthetic resins (+18.71%). The top five by net profit growth are fluorochemicals (+99.89%), chlor-alkali (+86.21%), pesticides (+72.93%), membrane materials (+54.54%), and potassium fertilizers (+44.95%) [6][38]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sub-industries with expected improvements in supply-demand dynamics, leading companies driven by capital expenditure expansion and R&D, and high-end chemical new materials benefiting from increased demand or ongoing domestic substitution [7][43]. - Recommended investment targets include Longbai Group, Hualu Hengsheng, Yangnong Chemical, Xinheng, and Guoci Materials [7][44].