Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks are easing but still pose concerns. Gold prices are approaching the $5000 mark. The U.S. economy shows strength, but geopolitical uncertainties and potential changes in the Fed chairperson may affect market sentiment. Different commodities are expected to have various trends based on their respective fundamentals and macro - economic factors [2][4]. - In the domestic market, there is room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year, which will promote the stable development of the capital market. The A - share market is in a stage of volume contraction and differentiation, with a positive medium - term trend [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The Q3 2025 real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly final value was slightly revised up to 4.4%, the fastest growth rate in two years, supported by strong exports, reduced inventory drag, and consumer resilience. The core PCE inflation remained at 2.9%, still above the Fed's 2% target. The 11 - month PCE price index was in line with market expectations, and the market priced the next interest rate cut in June. Geopolitical tensions have eased temporarily, but long - term concerns remain. The U.S. dollar index fell to 98.3, the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield was basically flat, and gold and silver reached new highs while copper and oil prices declined [2]. - Domestic: There is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. The A - share market closed higher with a slight increase in trading volume. The market is in a stage of volume contraction and differentiation, with a positive medium - term trend [3]. Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices continued to rise, with COMEX gold futures breaking through $4900 for the first time, closing up 2.09% at $4938.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures up 3.86% at $96.22 per ounce. Geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties have increased the demand for hedging, pushing up precious metal prices. The uncertainty of geopolitical risks and concerns about the independence of the Fed are expected to keep gold and silver prices strong [4][5]. Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly, and LME copper rebounded slightly. The spot market trading was poor, and the inventory increased. The Q3 2025 U.S. GDP growth rate was revised up, and geopolitical risks led to an increase in global risk - aversion sentiment. Rio Tinto's Q4 production increased by 5% year - on - year. It is expected that copper prices will enter a weak oscillation in the short term, but the downside adjustment space may be limited [6][7]. Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 24055 yuan/ton, up 0.59%. The LME closed at $3137.5 per ton, up 0.64%. The U.S. economic data was mixed, and the geopolitical tension in Greenland eased. The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased slightly this week, but the de - stocking is expected to be difficult to continue with the arrival of the off - season. It is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate [8][9]. Alumina - The main contract of alumina futures closed at 2717 yuan/ton, up 1.8%. Overseas and domestic news has led to a rebound in alumina futures prices, but the actual supply impact is limited, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the rebound of alumina prices will not last, and it will mainly oscillate at a low level [10]. Cast Aluminum - The main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 22855 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The consumption improvement of cast aluminum is limited, the cost decline is limited, and the supply - side start - up is stable at a low level. The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and it is expected to remain oscillating [11]. Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated horizontally during the day and strengthened at night, and LME zinc closed up. The U.S. economic performance is strong, the inflation meets expectations, and the dollar falls, boosting zinc prices. The inventory decreased slightly this week, and the global zinc ore supply is expected to tighten. It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [12][13]. Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly during the day and horizontally at night, and LME lead oscillated. After the decline of lead prices slowed down, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm improved, and some enterprises started pre - holiday stockpiling. Environmental protection control in Shandong and Hebei has restricted the production of some enterprises, and the supply is expected to tighten. It is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate stably, but the upward driving force is not strong for now [14][15]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rose during the day and strengthened at night, and LME tin oscillated horizontally. Geopolitical concerns have dissipated, and the U.S. economic data is strong, boosting risk appetite. The terminal order demand is sluggish, the downstream purchasing willingness is not strong, and the supply has no new changes. It is expected that tin prices will continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [16]. Steel and Iron Products - **Screw and Coil**: Steel futures oscillated. Affected by seasonal demand, market trading weakened. The output of five major steel products was stable, the apparent demand declined, and the inventory gradually increased. It is expected that steel prices will mainly oscillate [17]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore futures oscillated. The central bank signaled monetary easing, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The supply is still at a high level, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The pre - holiday restocking expectation provides some support, and it is expected that the futures price will oscillate [18]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The spot market sentiment was weak and stable. The supply of upstream coal mines continued to resume production, and the demand of downstream steel mills was weak. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate weakly [19]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal 05 contract closed up 1.50%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract closed up 1.21%. Brazil's soybean production, export, and crushing volume are expected to increase. The precipitation in central Brazil may affect the harvest, and the drought in Argentina has led to increased speculation. It is expected that the soybean meal will oscillate and rebound in the short term [20][21]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil 05 contract closed up 1.59%. The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in January, but the U.S. biodiesel policy expectation and the improvement of palm oil export and production contraction support the price. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate strongly in the short term [22].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic partial alumina enterprises are conducting maintenance, and the news of production cuts at an Australian alumina plant helps the alumina price stop falling. However, overseas disturbance news has limited impact on current production, and there is still 6 million tons of new production capacity to be put into operation overseas this year, so the actual impact on the supply increase this year is limited. The current maintenance capacity in China cannot support the reversal of the supply - demand situation. It is expected that the price will stop falling, stabilize, and fluctuate in the short term, and the subsequent rebound of alumina still needs to see more production cuts [2][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Transaction Data - From January 14th to January 23rd, 2026, the alumina futures (active) dropped from 2800 yuan/ton to 2724 yuan/ton, a decrease of 76 yuan/ton; the domestic alumina spot decreased from 2681 yuan/ton to 2657 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton; the spot premium decreased from 138 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan/ton. The Australian alumina FOB decreased from 309 US dollars/ton to 304 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton; the import profit and loss increased from - 47.37 yuan/ton to - 22.79 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.6 yuan/ton. The exchange warehouse inventory decreased from 170,779 tons to 138,697 tons, a decrease of 32,082 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The main alumina futures contract dropped 0.98% last week, closing at 2724 yuan/ton. The national weighted - average price of the spot market on Friday was 2657 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week. In terms of bauxite, some domestic northern mines had phased production cuts due to weather, while the southern supply was stable, and the domestic bauxite price remained stable. The arrival volume of Chinese bauxite on January 9th was 3.5409 million tons, a decrease of 501,400 tons from the previous week, with an overall abundant import and pressured prices. On the supply side, the total built - in production capacity of national metallurgical - grade alumina was 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating production capacity was 87.12 million tons/year. The national weekly alumina operating rate decreased by 1.85 percentage points to 79.97% compared with the previous week, with domestic alumina plants operating at a high level. On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia continued to release newly - put - into - operation production capacity, with an increase in operating production capacity compared with the previous week, and the theoretical demand for alumina increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warrant inventory was 139,000 tons last Friday, a decrease of 38,105 tons during the week, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - A gold mine in Siguiri Province, about 800 kilometers northeast of Conakry, the capital of Guinea, collapsed, causing at least 6 deaths. The incident occurred in the Doko area, which is a manual gold - mining area with no bauxite mines, and the straight - line distance to the nearest main bauxite - mining area is about 520 kilometers, having no impact on bauxite production and shipping for the time being. Imported bauxite is abundant with light trading, and prices are under pressure. Domestic bauxite remains in a tight situation with fluctuating prices. On the supply side, there have been small - scale maintenance in Shanxi, Henan, Guangxi and other places in China, and the operating production capacity has decreased compared with the previous period, but the operating production capacity after maintenance is still theoretically in excess. Rio Tinto Group said it will cut the output of its Yarwun alumina refinery in Australia by 40% starting from October 2026, involving a production capacity of 1.2 million tons. The production capacity of downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises has increased slightly, and procurement still mainly follows long - term contracts. The alumina warrant inventory was 139,000 tons, a decrease of 38,105 tons during the week [2][6]. 3.4 Industry News - In December 2025, China imported 227,800 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 1.98% and a year - on - year increase of 1388.89%; exported 205,900 tons of alumina, a month - on - month increase of 22.56% and a year - on - year increase of 9.35%; the net import volume of alumina was 21,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 65.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 112.66%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 1.1981 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.62%; the cumulative export was 2.5492 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.76%; the cumulative net export volume of Chinese alumina was 1.3511 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 269.48%. The total import volume of Chinese bauxite in December was 14.67 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.0%. As of December, the cumulative import volume this year reached 201.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.4%. The cumulative consumption of imported ore by Chinese alumina enterprises as of December was about 155.77 million tons, and the current imported bauxite market is in a state of oversupply. Two alumina enterprises in Guangxi started maintenance this weekend. Enterprise A plans to start roasting maintenance on January 24th, which is expected to end in 14 days, affecting about 40,000 tons of production during this period. Enterprise B plans to start roasting maintenance on January 25th, which is expected to end in 10 - 12 days, with a halved production during this period and a daily output reduced to about 2800 tons. A certain alumina enterprise in Henan stopped all roasting production lines for maintenance this morning and is currently only producing aluminum hydroxide. Before the shutdown, only one production line was in operation due to environmental control. It is expected that one production line will resume operation in about 10 days, and the downstream delivery will not be affected during the maintenance period [7]. 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month - to - first - continuous spread, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina exchange inventory, and alumina cost - profit [9][10][13][15][18][21][24].

Company News - Yongjie New Materials plans to acquire 100% equity of Aokening Qinhuangdao and 95% equity of Aokening Kunshan, with a total transaction value of approximately $18.98 million (equivalent to 9090 million yuan for Kunshan and 8890 million yuan for Qinhuangdao) [3][4] - The acquisition is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring, enhancing Yongjie New Materials' production capacity and scale effects in the aluminum plate and strip industry [4] - Delijia announced a collaboration for a 10 MW wind power gearbox R&D and manufacturing project with a total investment of 5 billion yuan, aiming to meet the growing market demand for wind power gearboxes [5] - Hunan Gold plans to acquire 100% equity of Golden Tianyue and 100% equity of Zhongnan Smelting through a share issuance, with the transaction expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [5] - Zhongchong Co. intends to repurchase its A-shares with a total amount between 100 million yuan and 200 million yuan, at a maximum price of 78.00 yuan per share [7] - Luoyang Molybdenum announced the completion of the acquisition of 100% equity in Aurizona Gold Mine, RDM Gold Mine, and Bahia Complex, which collectively contain 5.013 million ounces of gold resources [6] Industry Insights - According to Zhongyin Securities, the chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in demand supported by policies, with leading companies likely to experience dual improvements in performance and valuation [8] - The report highlights the growth potential in emerging fields such as semiconductor materials, OLED materials, and new energy materials due to rapid development in downstream industries [8] - Guoxin Securities indicates that the banking wealth management sector is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement," focusing on product innovation and external cooperation to address yield challenges [9]

Group 1 - The company Yongjie New Materials announced plans to engage in aluminum product hedging business starting in 2026, with a maximum position size of 20,000 tons per trading day [2] - The margin for the hedging business will not exceed 50 million yuan, and the maximum contract value is capped at 500 million yuan [2] - Concurrently, the company will conduct forward foreign exchange settlement and sales, with a foreign currency amount not exceeding 60 million US dollars, both businesses are set to expire on December 31, 2026, and will be funded entirely from the company's own funds [2]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the production of alumina increased by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter to 2.481 million tons, while the production of primary aluminum rose by 4.3% to 604,000 tons, primarily due to the successful restart of the San Ciprián electrolytic aluminum plant in Spain [2][3] - The average realized price for third-party sales of alumina decreased by 46.4% year-on-year to $341 per ton, while the average price for primary aluminum increased by 24.7% year-on-year to $3,749 per ton [3][9] - The company's total revenue for Q4 2025 was $3.449 billion, reflecting a 15.2% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 1.1% decrease year-on-year [9][11] Summary by Sections Production and Operations - In Q4 2025, bauxite production was 9.4 million tons, with third-party bauxite shipments at 2.4 million tons, showing a 41.2% increase quarter-on-quarter [2][5] - The total alumina production for 2025 was 9.640 million tons, a decrease of 3.9% year-on-year, while the total primary aluminum production for 2025 was 2.319 million tons, an increase of 4.7% year-on-year [6][8] Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, the net profit attributable to Alcoa was $226 million, a decrease of 2.6% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 11.9% year-on-year [11][27] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $546 million, reflecting a significant increase due to rising aluminum prices and the absence of certain one-time charges from the previous quarter [12][20] Future Outlook - For 2026, the alumina business is expected to produce between 9.7 million and 9.9 million tons, with aluminum production projected to be between 240,000 and 260,000 tons [23][24] - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to face challenges, including a $30 million negative impact on adjusted EBITDA due to routine maintenance and price declines in bauxite procurement agreements [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "anti-involution" has evolved from a social buzzword to a significant national strategic proposition since its introduction at the Central Political Bureau meeting in July 2024, emphasizing the need to prevent vicious competition in the market [2] Group 1: Industry Challenges - Companies are experiencing "involutionary competition," leading to a vicious cycle of price cuts that shrink profits, hinder R&D investment, and impede quality improvement, resulting in inefficient industry development [2] - This "involution" not only erodes corporate profits but also diminishes innovation motivation and the prospects for high-quality development [2] Group 2: Recommendations for Improvement - To break the cycle of "involution," competition should shift from low-level price and consumption battles to higher-level competition based on technology, quality, and business models [5] - Three key suggestions were made: 1. Use policy as a "navigational tool" to guide capital and innovation towards valuable sectors, with government support through targeted policies like special funds and innovation vouchers [5] 2. Utilize platforms as "boosters" to support collaborative innovation among enterprises, encouraging partnerships with universities and research institutions to reduce R&D costs and risks [5] 3. Create an environment that nurtures specialized and innovative enterprises, ensuring equal resource access and fostering a culture that encourages innovation while being tolerant of failures [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded. Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Europe once suppressed market sentiment, but then the sentiment eased. SHFE aluminum rose 1.4% this week, and LME aluminum rose 0.9%. Currently, domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories continue to accumulate, and high prices still suppress downstream demand. However, in the context of the off - season, this does not constitute a major negative for prices. There was concentrated delivery of LME aluminum, but the inventory remained at a relatively low level. Coupled with the high premium of US aluminum spot, the support for aluminum prices remains strong. Driven by the relatively loose policy environment at home and abroad and the continuous record - high of precious metals, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to be 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton; the operating range of LME aluminum 3M is expected to be 3,120 - 3,220 US dollars/ton [12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply Side**: As of the end of December 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 4,459.8 million tons, with a 1.9% year - on - year increase in production in December. January's production is expected to increase month - on - month. In December, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.581 million tons, a 3.6% month - on - month and 2.2% year - on - year increase. The domestic molten aluminum ratio in December 2025 decreased by 0.8% month - on - month and is expected to decline further in January [12] - **Inventory & Spot**: According to MYSTEEL data, on Thursday this week, the aluminum ingot inventory was 768,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last Thursday. The bonded area inventory was 48,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from last Thursday. The total aluminum bar inventory was 229,000 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from last Thursday. The global LME aluminum inventory was 507,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week. The spot basis of domestic East China aluminum ingots strengthened, and the LME market's Cash/3M changed from premium to discount [12] - **Imports and Exports**: In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 189,000 tons, a 29.5% month - on - month and 17.2% year - on - year increase. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.538 million tons, an 18.8% year - on - year increase. In December, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, a 4.4% month - on - month decrease; the cumulative exports from January to December were 6.134 million tons, an 8.0% year - on - year decrease. Recently, the spot import loss of SHFE aluminum has narrowed [12] - **Demand Side**: According to SMM research, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing this week increased by 0.7% to 60.9% compared with last week. Among them, the operating rates of aluminum cables and aluminum profiles rebounded month - on - month, while those of primary aluminum alloys, aluminum sheets and strips, and aluminum foils remained flat. In terms of demand, there is a seasonal recovery in food packaging foils and pharmaceutical foils before the Spring Festival, and orders from sub - sectors such as photovoltaics, automobiles, and batteries provide support. However, high aluminum prices continue to suppress the terminal's purchasing willingness, and downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a just - in - time basis [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: SHFE aluminum rose 1.4% to 24,290 yuan/ton this week (as of Friday afternoon's closing), and LME aluminum rose 0.9% to 3,173.5 US dollars/ton [23] - **Term Spread**: The contango of SHFE aluminum's first - to - third contract narrowed compared with last week [29] - **Spot Basis**: The discounts in East China, South China, and Central China narrowed compared with last week. The Central China spot was relatively strong. The LME aluminum Cash/3M changed from premium to discount [33][40][42] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit**: The primary aluminum smelting profit increased compared with last week and is at a historical high [52] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: Aluminum ingot inventory on Thursday this week was 768,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last Thursday. The bonded area inventory was 48,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from last Thursday. The total aluminum bar inventory was 229,000 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from last Thursday. The global LME aluminum inventory was 507,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week, still at a relatively low level in recent years. In December 2025, the proportion of aluminum from India in LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased to 39.5%, and the total inventory decreased [57][60][65][68] 4. Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: Domestic and overseas bauxite prices remained unchanged compared with last week [73] - **Alumina Price**: Domestic alumina prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with last week, and import prices decreased by 2 US dollars/ton [77] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: The anode price remained unchanged compared with last week, and the thermal coal price decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with last week [81] 5. Supply Side - **Alumina**: In December 2025, the monthly alumina production was 8.003 million tons, an increase of 162,000 tons from November and an 8.7% year - on - year increase. The annual alumina production in 2025 was 90.647 million tons, a 10.1% year - on - year increase. The production in January 2026 is expected to remain high [86] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of December 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 4,460.8 million tons. In December, the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.9% month - on - month and 1.9% year - on - year. The operating capacity in January 2026 is expected to be relatively stable. In December 2025, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.581 million tons, a 3.6% month - on - month and 2.2% year - on - year increase, and the annual production increased by about 2.8% year - on - year [89] - **Molten Aluminum Ratio**: This week, the aluminum bar processing fee first increased and then decreased. In December 2025, the domestic molten aluminum ratio decreased by 0.8% month - on - month. The casting volume of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 13.4% month - on - month and decreased by 7.7% year - on - year. This week, the molten aluminum ratio of domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises decreased slightly, and it is expected to decline further in January 2026 [92] - **Provincial Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production in each province increased month - on - month compared with November [97] 6. Demand Side - **Aluminum Products Production and Outbound Volume**: In December 2025, China's aluminum products production was 6.136 million tons, a 0.5% year - on - year increase; the cumulative production from January to December was 67.504 million tons, a 0.5% year - on - year decrease. As of January 19, 2026, the daily outbound volume of aluminum ingots was 124,000 tons, an increase from last week [101] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: In December 2025, the operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum sheets and strips decreased month - on - month, while those of primary aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum rods increased month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased. This week, the price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys widened by 5 yuan/ton to 816 yuan/ton [107][110][113] - **Terminal Demand**: According to the production scheduling reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, the production schedule of household air conditioners in January 2026 is 18.51 million units, an 11% increase compared with the actual production in the same period last year, turning from a decline to an increase year - on - year; the production schedule of refrigerators is 7.92 million units, a 3.6% increase compared with the actual production in the same period last year; the production schedule of washing machines is 8.1 million units, a 1.8% slight decrease compared with the actual production in the same period last year. In December 2025, the real - estate data continued to be weak, and the production and sales of automobiles weakened marginally. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules in January 2026 is expected to improve [117] 7. Imports and Exports - **Primary Aluminum Imports**: In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 189,000 tons, a 29.5% month - on - month and 17.2% year - on - year increase. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.538 million tons, an 18.8% year - on - year increase. This week, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots narrowed [122] - **Aluminum Ingot Import Sources**: In December 2025, aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Australia, etc., with the import volume from Russia increasing to 76% [125] - **Aluminum Products Exports and Recycled Aluminum Imports**: In December 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, a 4.4% month - on - month decrease; the cumulative exports from January to December were 6.134 million tons, an 8.0% year - on - year decrease. In December 2025, the recycled aluminum imports were 194,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons month - on - month; the cumulative imports from January to December were 2.015 million tons, a 13.1% year - on - year increase [128] - **Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports**: In December 2025, China's bauxite imports were 14.673 million tons, with the proportion of imported ore at 72.5%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to December were 200.532 million tons, a 26.3% year - on - year increase. In December 2025, China's alumina exports were 206,000 tons, a 9.3% year - on - year increase. The cumulative alumina exports from January to December were 2.548 million tons, a 42.7% year - on - year increase [131]

Core Insights - Zhaotong City has achieved significant economic growth, with its GDP surpassing 200 billion yuan, marking an average annual growth rate of 6.2% and moving up two positions to rank 5th in the province [4] - The city has successfully completed its "three-year step-up" task and high-quality goals set in the 14th Five-Year Plan, demonstrating a historic leap in comprehensive strength and significant improvements in urban and rural landscapes [2] Economic Development - The total fixed asset investment reached 572.2 billion yuan, with the proportion of industrial investment increasing from 27% to 50.4% and private investment rising from 19.6% to 41.6% [4] - Local general public budget revenue has entered the 10 billion yuan range, reaching 12.02 billion yuan, also moving up two positions to rank 5th in the province [4] Employment and Poverty Alleviation - The stable employment of rural laborers has maintained over 2.55 million, with significant investments in employment initiatives and poverty alleviation [8] - The risk elimination rate for monitored poverty alleviation objects reached 87.66%, with 63,600 households and 268,500 individuals identified [6] Infrastructure and Urbanization - The urbanization rate of the permanent population has increased to 45%, with the built-up area of urban areas reaching 139.7 square kilometers [12] - The highway mileage has surpassed 1,000 kilometers, enhancing connectivity with neighboring provinces [14] Environmental and Ecological Progress - The air quality in Zhaotong has achieved an excellent rate of over 98%, and the water quality of the Chishui River (Zhaotong section) has been recognized as a national model [14] Education and Healthcare - A total of 167,000 new educational slots have been created, with a stable compulsory education retention rate of over 99% [16] - New healthcare facilities have been established, including a women's and children's hospital and an infectious disease hospital [16] Policy and Governance - The "streamlining administration and delegating power" reform has been deepened, with 483 items achieving "cross-provincial handling" [18] - The total assets of state-owned enterprises have increased by 37.12%, with a net increase of 195,300 operating entities [18]

04 需求端 过剩格局难改， 宏观乐观情绪支撑期价 氧化铝周报 2026/01/24 王梓铧（联系人） 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130785 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估 01 周度评估 周度要点小结 ◆ 期货价格：截至1月23日下午3时，氧化铝指数周内下跌0.95%至2719元/吨，持仓增加1.4万手至71.7万手。本周氧化铝价格先跌后涨，供应过剩格局导致价格承压，"反内卷"预 期叠加乐观的宏观情绪为价格提供支撑。基差方面，山东现货价格报2555元/吨，贴水02合约8元/吨。月差方面，连1-连3月差收盘录得-48元/吨。 ◆ 现货价格：本周各地区氧化铝现货价格延续下跌趋势，广西、贵州、河南、山东、山西和新疆地区现货价格分别下跌10元/吨、下跌10元/吨、下跌10元/吨、下跌10元/吨、下跌 10元/吨、持平。累库趋势持续，多数地区现货价格仍然承压。 ◆ 库存：周内氧化铝社会总库存累库9.4万吨至548.7万吨，其中电解铝厂内库存、氧化铝厂内库存、在途库存、港口库存 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tsingshan Group, the world's largest stainless steel and nickel producer, is rapidly expanding its industrial footprint from its core nickel and stainless steel business into the aluminum and new energy battery sectors [1]. Group 1: Nickel and Stainless Steel Business - Tsingshan Group generated annual revenue of $56.5 billion and ranks 247th on the Fortune Global 500 list [1]. - The company holds a 25%-30% market share in the nickel industry, significantly influencing nickel price trends, which recently rebounded to nearly $18,000 per ton due to tightened supply quotas and regulatory policies in Indonesia [1]. - In 2023, Tsingshan's stainless steel production exceeded 16 million tons, maintaining its position as the largest producer [14]. Group 2: Expansion into Aluminum - Tsingshan is replicating its successful "mine-park-smelting" model from the nickel industry to the aluminum sector, with approximately 500,000 tons per year of primary aluminum capacity in Indonesia [8]. - The company is advancing large-scale joint ventures with Xinfa Group in Indonesia, with planned capacities exceeding 1 million tons per year [9]. - The completion of new power facilities necessary for these aluminum projects is expected to be delayed until mid-2027, potentially impacting actual production contributions [10]. Group 3: New Energy Battery Sector - Tsingshan's ambitions extend to battery manufacturing, with its subsidiary REPT Battero ranking among the top ten globally in battery installation capacity and fifth in energy storage battery shipments [11]. - The company is establishing a battery recycling network in partnership with GEM and Huayou Cobalt to complete its industrial chain [13]. - A memorandum of understanding was signed with Volkswagen Group in 2022 to establish upstream raw material joint ventures in Indonesia and China, ensuring supply chain security and cost reduction [12]. Group 4: Strategic Partnerships and Acquisitions - Tsingshan is enhancing its competitive edge in the stainless steel sector through acquisitions and collaborations, including the planned acquisition of POSCO's core stainless steel assets in China by 2025 [14]. - The company has registered nickel cathodes produced at its Dingxin plant as an LME delivery brand to strengthen its hedging capabilities against market volatility [15].