证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-23 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4846.95 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5047.03 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-06 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 -15% -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 21% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《固态电池对上游金属需求梳理》 - 2025.06.20 有色金属行业报告 （2025.06.16-2025.06. ...

Core Viewpoint - The global competition for rare earth resources is intensifying, with the U.S. seeking to break China's dominance by collaborating with Brazil, which has significant rare earth reserves [1][3]. Group 1: Rare Earth Resources and Competition - China has maintained a leading position in the global rare earth market due to its complete industrial chain [1]. - Brazil has proven rare earth reserves of approximately 21 million tons, accounting for 21% of global reserves, significantly higher than India's 6.9 million tons [3]. - The U.S. is leveraging Brazil's geographical advantages, low labor costs, and rich mineral resources to enhance its rare earth capabilities [3]. Group 2: U.S.-Brazil Cooperation - The first rare earth mine under the U.S.-Brazil cooperation has commenced construction, indicating the formal start of a strategic partnership [3]. - Brazil's President Lula has committed 50 billion Brazilian Reais to simplify access processes and promote the development of the rare earth industry [10]. - Brazil has initiated 124 projects, with 24 related to rare earth resources, totaling an investment of 100 billion Brazilian Reais [10]. Group 3: Technological Challenges - Despite Brazil's rich rare earth reserves, its production accounts for only 0.02% of global output due to technological limitations [8]. - The U.S.-Brazil partnership faces significant challenges due to Brazil's lack of core technology, which may hinder the success of their collaboration [12][16]. - China's rare earth refining capacity stands at 92.3% of the global total, making it difficult for other countries to compete, even with joint efforts from the U.S., India, and Japan [12][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The success of the U.S.-Brazil cooperation is uncertain, as the lack of core technology could render efforts ineffective [16]. - Continuous investment by the U.S., EU, and Japan aims to reduce dependency on China, but the technological gap remains substantial [14]. - China must enhance its technology and protect its expertise to maintain its leading position in the rare earth sector [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the non-ferrous materials sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a notable decline in various sub-sectors such as rare earths and gold [2][4] - COMEX gold futures closed at $3363.20 per ounce, down $69.4 per ounce, a decrease of 2%, while COMEX silver futures fell to $35.78 per ounce, down $0.5 per ounce, a decline of 1.38% [3][4] - Industrial metals showed slight price increases, with LME copper settling at $9945 per ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 3% [3][4] Group 2 - The non-ferrous materials sector saw a decline of 3.3%, with rare earths down 6.02% and gold down 5.34%, while aluminum remained stable [2][4] - Prices for various industrial metals, including LME aluminum and zinc, experienced weekly increases of 1.8% and 2%, respectively, while LME nickel saw a decrease of 1.34% [3][4] - The price of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide continued to decline, with lithium hydroxide prices dropping below 60,000 per ton, indicating potential losses for companies without cost advantages [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Australian rare earth company Lynas has successfully launched its terbium production line, with plans to reach an annual capacity of 1,500 tons of heavy rare earths, attracting global attention, particularly from the U.S. seeking alternatives to Chinese rare earth supplies [1][6] Group 1: Production and Capacity - Lynas aims to achieve an annual production capacity of 1,500 tons of heavy rare earths, which is significantly lower than China's 20,000 tons [1] - The U.S. has signed a $258 million procurement contract with Lynas, indicating a desire for long-term collaboration to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earths [1] Group 2: Cost and Competition - The production cost of rare earths in Australia is high, with prices reaching $15 per kilogram, two to three times higher than Chinese prices, posing a financial challenge for U.S. buyers [3] - China's rare earth smelting and separation capacity accounts for 92.3% of the global market, showcasing its dominant position and advanced technology in the industry [1][5] Group 3: Quality and Stability - The purity of Lynas's products has not fully met the production requirements, which is a concern for U.S. manufacturers seeking high-quality rare earth materials [5] - The stability of Lynas's production capacity is questioned due to the complexity of rare earth production processes, where Australia still lags behind China in technology and equipment [3][5]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on industries with marginal structural changes as the earnings forecast period approaches, suggesting that sectors with inventory depletion and contract liabilities are likely to see performance improvements [4] - The North American AI hardware supply chain is highlighted as a preferred investment area, along with sectors expected to report good earnings and reasonable valuations such as wind power, gaming, and pet industries [1][3] - The article discusses the potential for a rebound in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in electric vehicles, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption sectors, despite recent weakness due to liquidity tightening and increased share placements [1][3] Group 2 - The article notes that external risks, such as the potential for tariffs from the U.S. and the impact of tax legislation, could negatively affect non-U.S. markets [2] - It suggests that the trend of the U.S. dollar depreciating may benefit Chinese assets, with the Hong Kong market expected to see increased liquidity and investment opportunities as a result [5][6] - The article indicates that the A-share market is likely to experience a volatile upward trend in the second half of the year, supported by policy measures and the expansion of equity funds [8] Group 3 - The article highlights the importance of structural investment opportunities, particularly in sectors that are experiencing growth due to economic transformation and rising consumer income [9] - It suggests that the A-share market is currently in a phase of consolidation, with external uncertainties and domestic demand issues impacting performance [10][13] - The article recommends focusing on defensive assets and sectors with high dividend yields, as well as technology and consumer sectors that are expected to benefit from policy support [8][12]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "rare earth war" between China and the United States is intensifying, with Russia's involvement adding complexity to the geopolitical landscape. Russia aims to leverage its significant rare earth reserves to gain a foothold in the international market [1][3]. Group 1: Rare Earth Resources - Russia possesses substantial rare earth reserves, with the Lovozero and Tomtor mines estimated to hold up to 28.5 million tons [1][3]. - Rare earth elements are critical for modern technology and industry, leading to fierce competition among nations [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. relies on China for rare earth supplies, while China uses this dependency as leverage against the U.S. [3]. - Russia's strategy appears to be aimed at securing its domestic rare earth needs while enhancing its international supply capabilities, potentially positioning itself as an alternative to China for the U.S. [3][7]. Group 3: Challenges in Extraction and Technology - Despite its large reserves, Russia faces challenges in extraction and refining technologies, which are crucial for becoming a significant player in the rare earth market [5]. - The low ore grade at the Lovozero mine and the fact that the Tomtor mine has not yet been developed indicate that Russia may struggle to become a major supplier in the short term [5]. Group 4: Future Market Dynamics - The future of the rare earth market is uncertain, influenced by international relations, policy changes, and technological advancements [7]. - Russia's ability to participate effectively in the rare earth competition will depend on its technological capabilities, policy execution, and market reactions [7].

Group 1 - China Galaxy Securities predicts that the overall A-share market will show a震荡向上的行情特征 in the second half of the year, with current valuations at a historical medium level and lower than overseas mature markets, indicating high investment cost-effectiveness [1] - The firm emphasizes that policy support for long-term capital entering the market and the expansion of equity public funds will likely maintain a stable and improving capital environment for A-shares [1] - The focus on technology innovation as a core driver for new supply-side reforms in A-shares is highlighted, with specific attention to sectors like AI computing, AI applications, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities characterizes the upcoming mid-term report season as having a risk preference decline and weak fundamentals, suggesting a focus on the North American AI hardware supply chain despite recent pullbacks [2] - The firm identifies sectors with strong mid-term report performance certainty, including wind power, gaming, and rare metals, while also noting that some segments in new energy have reached reasonable valuation levels [2] - Recommendations include considering banks that continue to attract capital inflows as a relatively stable investment choice [2] Group 3 - Huajin Securities advises focusing on valuation cost-effectiveness and balancing investments between technology growth and undervalued blue-chip stocks, given the positive domestic policies and liquidity conditions [3] - The firm points out that sectors like media, automotive, and power equipment have low transaction volumes and turnover rates, indicating potential for sentiment recovery [3] - Short-term focus is suggested on industries supported by policies and trends, such as new energy vehicles and financial services [3] Group 4 - Hua'an Securities maintains a positive outlook for the second half of the year on high-dividend sectors like banking and insurance, as well as industries represented by new metal materials [4] - The firm notes that while loose liquidity supports the market, slow internal growth recovery and policy considerations may limit rapid upward movement [4] - The overall A-share profit forecast indicates a trend of improvement starting from Q4 2024, which could be a significant factor for market upward breakthroughs [4]

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Group 1 - China's significant role in the global rare earth industry, contributing over 70% of mining output and 85% of refining capacity, with around 90% of rare earth metal alloys and magnets produced in the country [3] - The U.S. government has invested over $439 million since 2020 to support domestic rare earth production and aims to establish a complete supply chain by 2027 to meet defense needs [3] - Despite U.S. efforts, challenges such as high transportation costs, lack of resources, and difficulties in attracting skilled labor hinder the establishment of a competitive rare earth industry [4] Group 2 - The U.S. relies heavily on China for pharmaceutical supplies, with over 60% of daily medications and raw materials sourced from China, raising national security concerns [6] - China's successful bid for a second nuclear power plant project in Kazakhstan, valued at over $10 billion, highlights its growing influence in the global nuclear energy sector [6] - Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China is enhancing its resource network and increasing its influence in critical resource sectors, including new energy and high-tech chips [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the U.S. in reducing its reliance on China for rare earth elements, highlighting the ambitious plans of American companies and the significant obstacles they encounter in achieving these goals [1][7][23]. Group 1: U.S. Companies' Ambitions - An Oklahoma company, Westwin Elements, claims it can refine 200 tons of nickel annually, with plans to increase production to 34,000 tons in five years, potentially meeting 10% of U.S. nickel demand [3]. - Other U.S. companies are also pursuing critical minerals, including a battery manufacturer aiming to extract 50,000 tons of lithium from brine and a rare earth company planning to produce 1,200 tons of rare earth magnets annually [5]. - The U.S. Department of Defense is in discussions with Westwin Elements for nickel supply agreements aimed at military applications [3]. Group 2: Challenges in Resource Availability - The U.S. Geological Survey indicates that the U.S. has limited rare earth reserves, with over 95% being light rare earths, while heavy rare earths, crucial for military applications, are predominantly supplied by China [7][19]. - Oklahoma lacks large-scale rare earth deposits, forcing companies like Westwin Elements to import raw materials from Australia, incurring high transportation costs [9]. Group 3: Technological Disadvantages - China holds over 90% of global rare earth separation patents, with its technology significantly outperforming U.S. capabilities in terms of cost and efficiency [11]. - U.S. companies struggle with outdated technology, as evidenced by Blue Line's failure to develop its own separation technology and reliance on purchasing outdated technology from Japan [11]. Group 4: Industry Ecosystem and Workforce Issues - The U.S. lacks a comprehensive rare earth processing ecosystem, with no single company capable of completing the entire processing chain, unlike China, which has over 3,000 supporting enterprises [13]. - There is a significant talent gap in the U.S. rare earth industry, with a shortage of over 23,000 skilled workers, and local educational institutions failing to provide adequate training [15]. Group 5: Government Support and Economic Viability - The U.S. government has invested $439 million since 2020 to build a complete rare earth supply chain, but experts estimate that even with all planned facilities operational, production would be minimal compared to China's output [17]. - Some U.S. companies appear to exploit government funding opportunities without genuine intentions to establish a sustainable rare earth industry, as seen in the case of Canoo, which declared bankruptcy after receiving state funds [17]. Group 6: Current Supply Shortages - The U.S. military's reliance on rare earths is critical, with specific components of advanced fighter jets requiring substantial amounts of rare earth materials, and the Department of Defense has acknowledged that a disruption in supply could severely impact production [19][21]. - The automotive industry, particularly electric vehicle manufacturers like Tesla and Ford, is facing production halts due to unstable rare earth supplies, leading to significant financial losses [21].