Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Tight Balance Expectations Heat Up, Copper Prices Fluctuate at High Levels [1] Core Views - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at high levels. The main reasons were that the US manufacturing industry returned to the expansion range and the Chinese central bank introduced loose policies to continuously inject vitality into the economy. However, the US tax reform bill will face high budget deficit pressure in the future, slightly suppressing market risk appetite. The market has fully digested the optimistic sentiment such as the China-US trade truce, and there is a short - term lack of macro - logical drivers. In addition, a global well - known commodity giant warned of the risk of a "copper shortage" this year, stating that the strong demand from China's new energy industry and the pre - demand due to US tariff premiums will break the original supply - demand balance, and it is expected that the global refined copper gap may reach as much as 300,000 tons in 2025 [2]. - Overall, the strong resilience of the US economy and a series of economic stimulus policies introduced by China continue to boost copper prices. However, after the release of the optimistic sentiment from the previous China - US negotiations, there is currently a lack of core macro - drivers, and the uncertainty of tariff hikes and trade policies still continuously disrupts the global supply chain. Fundamentally, the interference rate at the upstream mine end has increased, the domestic refined copper supply margin has widened, and the social inventory has rebounded from a low level. It is expected that copper prices will maintain high - level fluctuations and wait for future direction guidance [3][12] Market Data Price Changes - LME copper rose from $9,440.00 to $9,614.00, an increase of $174.00 or 1.84% [4]. - COMEX copper rose from 459.15 cents/pound to 486.5 cents/pound, an increase of 27.35 cents or 5.96% [4]. - SHFE copper fell from 78,140.00 yuan/ton to 77,790.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350.00 yuan or - 0.45% [4]. - International copper fell from 69,350.00 yuan/ton to 69,030.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 320.00 yuan or - 0.46% [4]. - The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.28 to 8.09, a decrease of 0.19 [4]. - LME spot premium/discount fell from $31.45 to $31.14, a decrease of $0.31 or - 0.99% [4]. - Shanghai spot premium/discount fell from 445 yuan to 165 yuan, a decrease of 280 yuan [4]. Inventory Changes - LME inventory decreased from 179,375 tons to 164,725 tons, a decrease of 14,650 tons or - 8.17% [7]. - COMEX inventory increased from 169,664 short tons to 175,631 short tons, an increase of 5,967 short tons or 3.52% [7]. - SHFE inventory decreased from 108,124 tons to 98,653 tons, a decrease of 9,471 tons or - 8.76% [7]. - Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased from 71,500 tons to 59,800 tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons or - 16.36% [7]. - Total inventory decreased from 528,663 tons to 498,809 tons, a decrease of 29,854 tons or - 5.65% [7] Market Analysis and Outlook Macro - aspect - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in May was 52.3, a three - month high, significantly higher than the expected 49.9. The new orders sub - index rose significantly to 53.3, expanding for five consecutive months. After the trade war subsided, enterprises' expectations for future output turned optimistic, but some producers also reported high cost - end pressure. The export orders index showed two consecutive months of contraction. The passage of the Trump tax reform bill by the US House of Representatives intensified the sell - off in the US Treasury market, dragging down the center of the US stock index and market risk appetite. It is estimated that the bill will increase the US budget deficit by $2.7 trillion in ten years [10]. - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. The market generally expects the ECB to cut interest rates slightly again in June. The Chinese central bank lowered the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR by 10 basis points, and the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to improve the institutional mechanism for promoting the development of the private economy [10]. Supply - demand aspect - This week, the spot TC remained below - $40/ton. The underground mining operations of the eastern area of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine under Ivanhoe have been fully suspended due to multiple earthquakes. The Cobre Panama project under First Quantum restarted after signing a new agreement, and the Antamina copper mine in Peru has not returned to normal levels. The interference rate at the upstream mine end continues to increase [11]. - In terms of refined copper, domestic refined copper production is running at a high level, but the TC negotiation is approaching in the middle of the year. Maintaining negative processing fees for a long time may cause some small and medium - sized smelters in China to face production cuts. Recently, the volume of imported goods from South America has gradually decreased but is limited. The supply margin has changed from tight to loose, but the sustainability needs further observation. In terms of demand, power grid investment projects are advancing steadily. The weekly operating rate of copper cable enterprises is 82.3%, and that of refined copper rod enterprises is about 73%, slightly lower than the same period in previous years. The current concern on the demand side is the significant decline in demand after the photovoltaic installation rush. In addition, the copper demand growth rate of emerging industries is stable, with new energy vehicles performing very well, and the copper demand in the artificial intelligence field and data centers is also increasing [11]. Industry News - According to the latest WBMS report, in March 2025, the global refined copper production reached 2.513 million tons, and the consumption was 2.493 million tons, with a supply surplus of 20,500 tons. From January to March this year, the total global refined copper production was 7.2832 million tons, and the total consumption was 7.0125 million tons, with a total supply surplus of 270,800 tons, and the supply gap is decreasing month by month [14]. - Freeport Indonesia's Manyar smelter in East Java has resumed operation ahead of schedule after a fire - related shutdown last October. It is expected to start producing cathode copper in the fourth week of June and reach full - load production in December. In March this year, the Indonesian government issued a six - month license to Freeport Indonesia, allowing it to export 1.27 million tons of copper concentrate [14]. - Ivanhoe has suspended the underground mining operations of its Kakula copper mine due to earthquake activities in the eastern mining area of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. After inspection, the seismic activity in the past 24 hours has significantly decreased, and the western area of the Kakula mine has been declared safe, with mining operations about to resume. The processing capacity of the No. 1 and No. 2 concentrators of the Kakula mine has decreased, and currently only processes ore from the surface stockpile [15]. - According to Mysteel research data, last week, the processing fee range of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China rose to 530 - 650 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 160 - 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The rapid decline in processing fees was due to the decline in the premium after the monthly contract change, and the high - level fluctuation of copper prices around 78,000 yuan made downstream enterprises wait - and - see, with low restocking willingness and mainly for rigid demand procurement. In the East China market, the transaction volume of the refined copper rod market increased slightly last week. In the South China market, downstream enterprises mainly took delivery of long - term orders, and the zero - order trading volume was limited [16]. Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of Shanghai copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange and bonded area inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrants, COMEX inventory and cancelled warrants, Shanghai copper basis trend, etc. These charts are sourced from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [17][18][19]

云南铜业 20250525 摘要 云南铜业通过资产证券化注入凉山矿业 40%股权并募集不超过 15 亿元 配套资金，中铝集团和中国铜业全额认购，增强资本市场信心，并承诺 五年内不减持，维护市场稳定。凉山矿业将成为公司未来重点发展区域。 凉山矿业 2024 年利润同比下降至 2.7 亿元，主要受加工费下降和资产 证券化成本影响；2025 年一季度利润约 1 亿元，同比增长，得益于开 采量提升、降本措施及硫酸价格上涨，成本控制在云南铜业内最低。 中铝集团和中国铜业全额认购资产证券化项目募集资金，相当于直接增 持，并延长减持承诺，显示大股东对云南铜业未来发展的支持与信心， 有助于提升投资者信任度。 凉山矿区将作为云南铜业重点发展区域，红泥坡主力矿山正在建设中， 公司与凉山州政府签订框架协议，整合周边铜金矿资源，旨在进一步开 发利用凉山地区资源。 红泥坡铜矿预计 2026 年底前投产达产，平均品位约 1.4%，总储量约 4,000 万吨，铜金属量约 60 万吨，将显著提高冶炼环节资源自给率。 海林铜矿详勘正在进行中，未来将与凉山矿业整合。 Q&A 云南铜业 2025 年一季度业绩良好，得益于成本管控优化和硫酸价格上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is planning a transaction involving the acquisition of a controlling stake in Liangshan Mining, which will enhance its resource integration and operational synergy in the copper industry, aligning with national industrial policies and capital market reforms [35][36][38]. Group 1: Transaction Overview - The transaction involves the acquisition of a 40% stake in Liangshan Mining, which will become a subsidiary of the company, enhancing its operational capabilities in copper mining and processing [15][36]. - The transaction is structured as a share issuance to pay for the acquisition, with the final transaction price yet to be determined pending the completion of asset audits and evaluations [9][41]. - The company has received preliminary approvals from its major shareholders, including Yunnan Copper Group and China Aluminum Group, for the transaction [18][19]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The transaction is expected to improve the company's asset base, revenue, and profit scale, although specific financial impacts will be disclosed in the restructuring report after the completion of audits [17][41]. - The company plans to raise up to 1.5 billion yuan through the issuance of new shares to support the acquisition and fund key projects, with a portion allocated for working capital [56][59]. Group 3: Regulatory and Approval Process - The transaction requires multiple approvals, including asset evaluation results to be filed with the relevant state-owned asset management authority and subsequent board and shareholder approvals [19][30]. - The company emphasizes that the transaction does not constitute a major asset restructuring under current regulations, although this will be confirmed in the restructuring report [61][62]. Group 4: Industry Context - The copper industry is positioned for high-quality development, supported by national policies aimed at optimizing the industrial structure and enhancing supply chain resilience [35][36]. - The company is strategically enhancing its position in the copper market, which is critical for national economic development and aligns with government initiatives to consolidate resources in state-owned enterprises [37][38].

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Copper Industry plans to acquire 40% of Liangshan Mining Co., Ltd. from its controlling shareholder, enhancing its resource integration and operational efficiency in the copper industry [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition involves issuing shares to raise up to 1.5 billion yuan, with 1 billion yuan from China Aluminum Group and 500 million yuan from China Copper [1]. - The transaction price is set at 9.31 yuan per share, with the final valuation of Liangshan Mining pending completion of auditing and assessment [1][2]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - This acquisition is a significant step in Yunnan Copper's resource integration strategy, expected to improve its asset and profit scale, as well as its industry position [2][4]. - Liangshan Mining, which Yunnan Copper already holds a 20% stake in, will become a subsidiary, enhancing business synergy and operational capabilities [2][3]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Liangshan Mining has a strong profitability foundation, with a net asset return rate above the industry average, and the completion of the Hongnippo Copper Mine is anticipated to further boost its profitability [2][3]. - The acquisition is expected to increase Yunnan Copper's copper resource reserves and overall competitiveness in the market [2][4]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The chairman of a management firm highlighted the potential for further resource integration actions by Yunnan Copper, indicating that this acquisition may be just the beginning of a broader strategy [3]. - Yunnan Copper is committed to enhancing its resource management and exploration activities, with plans to invest 65 million yuan in geological research and exploration in 2024 [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Copper Industry is progressing with the acquisition of a 40% stake in Liangshan Mining and raising supporting funds through share issuance, which will enhance its operational capabilities and market position in the copper industry [1][4]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The transaction involves issuing shares to acquire assets and raising supporting funds, with the share price set at 9.31 yuan per share [2]. - The total amount of supporting funds raised will not exceed 1.5 billion yuan, which is capped at 100% of the asset purchase price [2]. - The share issuance for the asset purchase will not exceed 30% of the total share capital post-transaction, with Chinalco Group and China Copper subscribing for up to 1 billion yuan and 500 million yuan, respectively [2]. Group 2: Liangshan Mining Overview - Liangshan Mining specializes in the mining, selection, and smelting of copper and other metal ores, holding high-quality copper resource reserves with a total copper metal amount of 779,700 tons and an average copper grade of 1.16% [3]. - The company has operational copper mines such as Lala Copper Mine, which has stable output, and is developing the Hongnippo Copper Mine, which is expected to enhance resource self-sufficiency upon completion [3]. - Liangshan Mining's revenue for 2024 and Q1 2025 is projected at 9.533 billion yuan and 3.068 billion yuan, with net profits of 265 million yuan and 98.1 million yuan, respectively [3]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The acquisition is aimed at industry consolidation, enhancing resource reserves and production capacity, thereby improving the company's operational scale and quality [4]. - This strategic move is expected to bolster the company's sustainable operational capabilities and core competitiveness in the copper sector [4].

Company Announcements - Weir Shares plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to accelerate international strategy and enhance overseas financing capabilities [1] - Zhongjin Gold's controlling shareholder plans to inject four companies, including Inner Mongolia Jintao, into the company to resolve competition issues [2] - Hanchuan Intelligent has filed a lawsuit against CATL and its subsidiaries for approximately 60.88 million yuan due to payment defaults [2] - Yunnan Copper intends to acquire a 40% stake in Liangshan Mining, with stock resuming trading on May 26 [3] - China Shenhua plans to acquire a 7.43% stake in China Energy Group Financial Company for 2.929 billion yuan [3] - Dike Co. intends to acquire 60% of Zhejiang Suote for 696 million yuan to control the Solamet photovoltaic silver paste business [4] - Jin Hua Co.'s chairman is under investigation for information disclosure violations, but it will not affect the company's operations [4] Financing and Investments - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical's H-shares will be listed on May 23, 2025, with a total issuance of 225 million shares at a price of 44.05 HKD per share [23] - Ningde Times' investment fund has increased to 10.128 billion yuan, with the company's stake reduced to 6.91% [8] - Intercontinental Oil and Gas expects to invest approximately 848 million USD in the Iraq South Basra project [9] - Keli Yuan plans to invest an additional 500 million yuan in a storage industry fund, increasing its total investment to 700 million yuan [10] Project Bids and Contracts - China Communications has won important rail transit projects totaling approximately 3.789 billion yuan [22] - Anhui Construction has received multiple project bids totaling over 2 billion yuan [22] Operational Updates - Zijin Mining's Kamoa-Kakula copper mine has suspended some underground mining operations due to seismic activity, potentially impacting future production [21] - Shaanxi Natural Gas will reduce pipeline transportation prices by 0.0386 yuan per cubic meter, expected to decrease net profit by approximately 222 million yuan in 2025 [20]

智通财经5月23日电，云南铜业(000878.SZ)公告称，公司正在筹划发行股份购买云南铜业（集团）有限 公司持有的凉山矿业股份有限公司40%股份并募集配套资金。公司股票自5月13日起停牌，并于5月26日 开市时起复牌。截至公告披露日，本次交易涉及标的资产的审计、评估工作尚未完成，公司董事会决定 暂不通知召开审议本次交易相关事项的股东大会。公司将在相关审计、评估工作完成后，再次召开董事 会审议本次交易相关事项，并由董事会召集股东大会审议与本次交易相关的议案。本次交易方案尚需经 深圳证券交易所审核通过并经中国证券监督管理委员会予以注册后方可实施。 云南铜业：拟购买凉山矿业股份有限公司40%股份并募集配套资金 股票复牌 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended; Option strategy: short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton [6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Overall, domestic inventories have increased since last week due to high copper prices and month spreads, and cautious downstream procurement. With some delivery goods flowing out this week, it's difficult to maintain high premiums and discounts. With limited new downstream orders, inventories may still increase slightly. Considering the rapid changes in macro - factors and the market's digestion of the US reaching trade agreements with multiple countries, copper prices are expected to be in a volatile pattern, ranging from 75,000 yuan/ton to 79,500 yuan/ton [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On May 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 77,880 yuan/ton and closed at 78,100 yuan/ton, up 0.72% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 77,750 yuan/ton and closed at 77,550 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - Yesterday morning, spot market quotes continued to decline. The price difference between flat - water copper and good copper was significant. Mainstream brands' premiums were reported at 230 - 260 yuan/ton. Downstream buyers were active in bargain - hunting. Some holders cut prices to 160 yuan/ton to rush for transactions, while brands like Xiangguang still quoted 220 - 240 yuan/ton. Jinchuan large - board premium remained firm at 300 yuan/ton. Non - registered copper was generally quoted around 100 yuan. The market trading sentiment was divided, with the shipping index dropping to 3.12 and the procurement index rising to 3.26. It's expected that imported goods will suppress premiums tomorrow, and if it falls below 100 yuan/ton, stronger procurement demand may be triggered [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical Aspects**: The demand for the 20 - year US Treasury bond auction was weak, and the yields of 20 - year and 30 - year US Treasury bonds rose above 5%, causing a sharp decline in US stocks. In May, the Fed started buying long - term bonds. The US House Speaker reached an agreement on the $40,000 state and local tax deduction limit, but the voting time for the tax bill is undecided. Geopolitically, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said he would fully control Gaza and reserve the right to act unilaterally against Iran. Many countries condemned the Israeli army for firing at diplomatic missions in the West Bank. Two Israeli sources said Israel is preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities quickly if US - Iran negotiations break down. Domestically, China and the ten ASEAN countries completed the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 [3] - **Mine End**: On May 21, Central Asia Metals (CAML) announced to acquire New World Resources (NWR) for A$185 million to include the Antler copper project in Arizona, USA. CAML will acquire all shares at A$0.05 per share in cash and hold 100% equity in the Antler project after the transaction. The Antler project is a high - grade volcanic - hosted massive sulfide copper deposit. A pre - feasibility study (PFS) in 2025 outlined a 12 - year mine life, with an average annual payable copper - equivalent production of about 30,000 tons from the 2nd to the 11th year. The total mineral resource estimate is 14.2 million tons, with a copper - equivalent grade of 3.8%. The after - tax net present value is estimated to be $498 million at a 7% discount rate, the internal rate of return is over 30%, and the payback period is three years. The NWR board recommends shareholders to vote in favor of the transaction, and project licensing is in progress [4] - **Smelting and Import**: On May 20, Antofagasta started mid - year negotiations with Chinese and Japanese smelters. Due to the tight supply of copper concentrates, Chinese smelters may require a "zero - dollar" processing fee (TC/RCs) in the second half of 2025, a 100% drop from the 2024 benchmark price of $80/ton and may even turn negative. Antofagasta's processing fee with Chinese smelters in December last year was $21.25/ton. China's copper smelting capacity expansion has intensified the supply shortage. BMI data shows that China's smelting capacity is expected to reach 12.78 million tons in 2025, an 8% increase from last year and a 25% increase from 2021 [5] - **Consumption**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated narrowly. Near the end of the month, downstream consumption boost was limited. Due to some processing enterprises' rush to export, market demand was relatively stable. But with average overall downstream orders, downstream enterprises mainly made just - in - time purchases [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 3,575 tons to 168,825 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 4,520 tons to 41,218 tons. On May 19, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 139,200 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from the previous week [5]

证券代码：000878 证券简称：云南铜业 公告编号：2025-036 云南铜业股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 三、分红派息日期 权益分派股权登记日为：2025年5月29日； 除权除息日为：2025年5月30日。 二、本次实施的利润分配方案 本公司2024年年度分红派息实施方案为：以公司现有总 股本2,003,628,310股为基数，向全体股东每10股派2.40元人民 币现金（含税；扣税后，通过深股通持有股份的香港市场投 资者、QFII、RQFII以及持有首发前限售股的个人和证券投资 基金每10股派2.16元；持有首发后限售股、股权激励限售股 及无限售流通股的个人股息红利税实行差别化税率征收，本 公司暂不扣缴个人所得税，待个人转让股票时，根据其持股 【注】 期限计算应纳税额 ；持有首发后限售股、股权激励限售股 及无限售流通股的证券投资基金所涉红利税，对香港投资者 持有基金份额部分按10%征收，对内地投资者持有基金份额 部分实行差别化税率征收）。 云南铜业股份有限公司（以下简称公司）2024年年度利 润分配方案已获公司2025年4月 ...

Core Viewpoint - Mercuria predicts a significant shortage in copper supply this year, which may lead to record-high copper prices [1] Group 1: Supply Shortage - Mercuria forecasts a shortage of 700,000 tons in copper concentrate and 300,000 tons in refined copper metal for this year [1] - The copper market is described as being in an extremely fragile state, with a high likelihood of entering a shortage phase in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Price Expectations - Nicholas Snowdon, a prominent copper bull at Mercuria, anticipates that copper prices will reach new highs, stating it is only a matter of time [1] - The current market conditions suggest that the question is not whether a shortage will occur, but when it will happen [1]