Core Insights - WTO economists predict a slowdown in global goods trade growth later this year due to ample inventories and increased tariffs impacting import demand [1][7] - In the first quarter of 2025, global goods trade volume increased by 3.6% quarter-on-quarter and 5.3% year-on-year, driven by a surge in North American imports in anticipation of higher U.S. tariffs [1][3] - The growth in trade volume exceeded WTO's earlier forecast of a 0.2% decline for the year [3] Trade Volume and Value - The dollar value of global goods trade, adjusted for seasonality, increased by 4% year-on-year in the first quarter, reflecting strong trade volume growth despite a decline in prices [3] - The first quarter saw significant growth in specific categories: office and telecommunications equipment (up 16%), chemicals (up 12%), and clothing (up 7%) [6] Regional Performance - North America led with a 13.4% quarter-on-quarter increase in imports, followed by Africa (5.1%), South America and Central America & Caribbean (3.6%), the Middle East (3.0%), Europe (1.3%), and Asia (1.1%) [4] - In terms of exports, the Middle East recorded the highest quarter-on-quarter growth at 6.3%, followed by Asia (5.6%) and South America (3.2%) [5] Future Trends - Data indicates that after a surge in the first quarter, import demand is beginning to slow down, with U.S. imports growing only 1% in the first two months of the second quarter after a 25% increase in the first quarter [7][8] - The World Bank reports a significant downward adjustment in trade growth forecasts for developed economies, with expected growth for 2025 being about half of earlier predictions [8]

特朗普还计划将所有国际事务与关税挂钩。他曾以巴西政府对前总统博索纳罗的"政治迫害"为由，宣布将对巴西进口商品的关税从10%提高至50%。面对美 国日益强硬的立场，巴西总统卢拉并未屈服，而是采取了审慎而坚定的态度，指示其内阁团队，在与美国的谈判中必须保持坚定立场，不能被特朗普的压力 所击倒。卢拉还指出，美国对巴西长期存在贸易顺差，因此对巴西加征关税不仅会影响美国对巴西的出口，还可能导致美国消费者承担更高的成本，显示出 特朗普此举的经济意义并不大。 o 0 随着"对等关税"措施的实施期限到来，美国特朗普政府不仅宣布了推迟期限的决定，还向170多个国家发送了关税通知，单方面宣布对这些国家输往美国的 商品实行阶梯式加征关税的政策，绕过了传统的谈判机制，直接发布了最后通牒。此前，美国曾为谈判提供了一定的空间，尽管如此，实际效果并不理想， 最终仅与英国达成了协议。 这一次，美国选择跳过谈判的过程，直接采取行动，且覆盖的范围极为广泛。在8日，美国向12个国家发出了关税通知函，其中部分商品的关税税率高达 60%至100%。随后，美国又宣布了14国的名单，并对其中的日本和韩国征收25%的关税，对柬埔寨和泰国的关税为36%，对老 ...

马科斯无论如何也没有想到，菲律宾替美国鞍前马后，竟然也会有今天，被特朗普当做"软柿子"捏。 日前，美总统特朗普公布第二批关税名单，继第一批的14国之后，又对8国宣布征税，其中菲律宾"光荣上榜"，将面临美国20%的对等关税，高于4月2日最 初宣布的17%。 特朗普在写给马科斯的信中，还劝菲律宾政府包容理解，这已经是美国做出的最大让步了，按照美菲的贸易逆差，这个数字原本应该更高，言外之意就是菲 律宾受了惩罚，马科斯应该对他感恩戴德。 那么，如何看待美国的关税大棒砸向菲律宾呢？ 首先，其实早在特朗普挑起全球关税战的一开始，美国的眼里就没有盟友可言，相反越是盟友宰得越狠，最典型的就是加拿大和欧盟，如今美国的"屠刀"砍 向菲律宾，完全在预料之内。 本质上讲，美国的对等关税其实十分随意，保持"恃强凌弱"的加税原则，同时非常关注转口贸易。 对此，马科斯政府倒是表现得比较平静，只是表示将与美方展开进一步谈判，正在安排人员访美，倒是拜登政府时期的美国官员，表现得比菲律宾还着急， 称此举将削弱美国对盟友的公信力，质问特朗普还想不想跟中国竞争。 举例来讲，美国一开始将中国关税加到了超过100%，这是为了迫使中国接受美国主导的贸易规 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the United States and Brazil, particularly focusing on the recent imposition of a 50% tariff by the U.S. on Brazilian goods, which is perceived as a political maneuver by Trump rather than a purely economic decision [3][7][10]. Group 1: U.S.-Brazil Trade Relations - The U.S. has raised tariffs on Brazil to 50%, which is seen as an aggressive move to pressure Brazil into compliance with U.S. demands [3][7]. - Brazil's President Lula has highlighted that since 2010, the U.S. has enjoyed a trade surplus of over $400 billion with Brazil, challenging the U.S. narrative of a trade deficit [7]. - The tariff increase is viewed as a personal vendetta from Trump, especially after Lula's comments about global leadership [7][9]. Group 2: Brazil's Response - Brazil has retaliated by imposing a similar 50% tariff on U.S. goods, demonstrating a strong stance against U.S. pressure [15]. - Lula's administration is actively seeking to strengthen ties with China, indicating a shift away from reliance on the U.S. market [15][16]. - Brazil's commitment to "de-dollarization" and promoting trade in local currencies is a significant challenge to U.S. economic dominance [16]. Group 3: Political Implications - Trump's tariff strategy is seen as an attempt to influence Brazilian internal politics, particularly to support former President Bolsonaro, who had a pro-U.S. stance [12][13]. - The current political climate in Brazil, including investigations into Bolsonaro, complicates U.S.-Brazil relations and highlights the shifting political landscape [13][21]. - The article suggests that Brazil's firm response is part of a broader movement among emerging nations to resist unilateralism and assert their independence [18][21]. Group 4: Global Trade Dynamics - The collaboration between Brazil and China is positioned as a counterbalance to U.S. hegemony, with potential implications for global trade patterns [16][19]. - The article emphasizes that the ongoing tariff conflict could lead to increased prices for U.S. consumers, indicating that the economic fallout may affect both nations [19]. - Brazil's actions signal a growing trend of emerging economies uniting against perceived economic bullying, reshaping the global trade landscape [18][21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that Australia-China cooperation can continue to expand and achieve mutual benefits as long as differences and disputes do not dominate the bilateral agenda [1][3] - Trade is a major topic in Australia-China exchanges, with China being Australia's largest export destination for minerals, energy, agricultural products, and seafood, as well as the largest source of international students and tourists [1][2] - Australia-China trade supports approximately 600,000 local jobs in Australia and has increased the average disposable income of Australian households by nearly 5% [1] Group 2 - The close trade relationship between Australia and China is primarily due to the high economic complementarity between the two countries, supported by constructive policy initiatives [2] - Since the implementation of the Australia-China Free Trade Agreement in 2015, Australia's trade with China has increased by 125%, while trade with other regions has only grown by 77% during the same period [2] - A recent survey indicates that over half of the surveyed companies believe that business operations in China have become more convenient since the resumption of high-level dialogues, and more than three-quarters feel that the improvement in Australia-China relations positively impacts their long-term plans in the Chinese market [2] Group 3 - Political, economic, and cultural factors are interrelated in promoting the development of Australia-China relations [3] - Australian leaders have expressed a desire to expand trade with China, rejecting the notion of following the U.S. in limiting trade with China [3] - There is a notable shift in public opinion in Australia, with an increasing number of Australians considering China a more reliable trading partner than the U.S. [3]

文｜冰禾 编辑｜削桐作琴 特朗普遭遇尴尬打脸！首个拒绝接收退关税信函的国家终于出现，令其怒火中烧，特朗普当机立断决定对剩余120多个国家统一征收关税。 令人意外的是，就在此时，昔日盟友日本竟然公开宣布要走独立自主的道路。 7月2日，美国正式向其27个主要贸易伙伴以及欧盟递交协商请求函，要求各国在45天内接受美国提出的新贸易条款，否则将面临高达20%的惩罚性关税。 美国官方将此举称为"针对性关税措施"，目的是通过差别化的谈判方式，重新塑造全球贸易规则。 然而，在首批接收函的国家中，超过三分之一明确拒绝了协商条件。 其中，巴西外交部率先于7月9日迅速退回了正式文书，紧接着日本、印度等十二个国家也纷纷表态不接受美国单方面制定的条款。 面对连番遭拒，特朗普的怒气难以抑制，随即宣布从8月1日起，对未收到关税函的120多个国家一律征收15%至20%的统一进口关税。 作为首个公开拒绝关税信函的国家，巴西的反应尤为迅速和果断。 7月9日，特朗普在社交媒体上公布了最新关税名单，巴西被征收高达50%的关税。 巴西总统卢拉看到这一消息后，当天便强硬回应，强调巴西绝不会被任何外力操控。 此外，关于巴西与美国贸易逆差的数据也遭到质疑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the European Union's (EU) efforts to diversify its trade partnerships in response to the trade policies of the Trump administration, particularly the imposition of tariffs on EU goods [1][3]. Group 1: EU's Trade Strategy - The EU and Indonesia have reached a political consensus to advance a trade agreement, aiming for Indonesian goods to enter the EU market tariff-free [3][4]. - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the importance of partnerships in a turbulent world, indicating that countries affected by U.S. tariffs are welcome to rely on Europe [3][4]. - The EU plans to strengthen trade ties with other economies, including South America and India, to establish new bilateral trade agreements [1][4]. Group 2: Response to U.S. Tariffs - The EU has extended the suspension of its trade countermeasures against the U.S. until August 1, allowing more time for negotiations [4]. - The EU aims to limit trade conflicts primarily to the U.S. market, which constitutes about 15% of global trade, while protecting the remaining 85% [4][5]. - The EU is also engaging with other affected partners like Canada and Japan to explore coordinated responses to U.S. tariffs [4][5]. Group 3: Global Trade Dynamics - Other major economies, including Canada and the UK, are also seeking to diversify their trade relationships in light of the changing global trade landscape [7][8]. - Canada is accelerating negotiations for a free trade agreement with ASEAN countries, while the UK is re-engaging in trade talks with Canada to strengthen global business ties [7][8]. - In Latin America, Brazil and Mexico are initiating preparatory talks to deepen trade agreements, highlighting a trend towards regional integration [8].

据环球时报报道，"巴西是一个主权国家，拥有独立的机构，不受任何人控制。"巴西总统卢拉近日在社交媒体平台发 文，回击美国总统特朗普当天早些时候的威胁：巴西法院对前总统博索纳罗"政变未遂案"的审理是"政治迫害"，美国将从 8月1日起对巴西所有输美产品征收50%的关税。卢拉表示，巴西将根据本国的"商业互惠法"对美方作出"对等回应"。美国 Axios新闻网称，特朗普正试图利用美国的经济实力来影响另一个国家的内政，为他的盟友谋取利益。 特朗普（资料图） 近日，特朗普亲自宣布了对8个国家的关税，其中包括：菲律宾、伊拉克、利比亚、文莱，以及巴西等。其中，最值得关 注的是两个国家：1.菲律宾。作为美国棋子的菲律宾，居然也被征20%的关税。2.巴西。巴西居然被征50%的关税，这是 到目前为止美国征的最高关税。 这下子，巴西政府上上下下可气坏了。80岁的总统卢拉第一时间表示："巴西将予以回应，巴西不会受任何人的控 制。"巴西副总统阿尔克明则提出一点：美国对巴西明明是顺差，那特朗普有什么理由给巴西这么高的关税！ 实际上特朗普早就看巴西不顺眼了。巴西前总统博索纳罗是特朗普的盟友，目前正因"政变未遂"接受司法审判。特朗普 在关税信函里 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around Brazil's unprecedented decision to return a tariff threat letter from the Trump administration, citing "factual errors" [3][5] - Brazil's trade surplus with the U.S. amounts to $410 billion over the past 15 years, indicating a strong economic relationship where Brazil purchases more from the U.S. than it sells [5][8] - The trade between the U.S. and Brazil constitutes only 1.7% of Brazil's GDP, suggesting that Brazil can sustain its economy without reliance on U.S. trade [8][12] Group 2 - The political dynamics shifted after Brazil's President Lula rejected Trump's interference in domestic judicial matters regarding former President Bolsonaro, highlighting a significant diplomatic rift [10][12] - Brazil's push for "de-dollarization" and collaboration with countries like China signals a strategic shift away from U.S. economic influence [13][30] - The response from other countries, including Japan and Canada, indicates a growing resistance to U.S. tariff threats, suggesting a potential shift in global trade alliances [17][21] Group 3 - The potential fallout from the tariff threats could lead to increased beef prices in the U.S., as Brazil is a major beef exporter [24][32] - The diplomatic consequences of Brazil's stance may inspire other Latin American countries to reconsider their relationships with the U.S., potentially diminishing U.S. influence in the region [26][28] - The incident may catalyze a new global trade structure, encouraging countries to diversify their trade partnerships and reduce dependency on the U.S. market [28][30]

日前美国宣布将对从欧盟、墨西哥进口的商品分别征收30%关税。美国彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究 员玛丽·洛夫莉表示，美国追求的并非是双赢的协议，而是希望通过向贸易伙伴施压，确保自己得到更 多利益。（央视） ...