Group 1: Macro Overview - The report indicates that in 2025, credit expansion showed marginal improvement, with a notable reliance on fiscal expansion, as the proportion of government bonds in social financing reached a historical high [3] - Monthly data reveals that new credit has decreased year-on-year for six consecutive months, with corporate credit performing better than household credit, driven mainly by the implementation of policy financial tools [3] - Looking ahead, the report suggests that the economy remains in a "weak reality," with significant downward pressure, and anticipates proactive policy measures in 2026 to stimulate economic growth [3] Group 2: Fixed Income Analysis - The report discusses the recent volatility in 30-year government bonds, which rose from approximately 1.85% in early July to around 2.3%, an increase of 45 basis points, while local government bonds remained stable [4] - The fitted model indicates that the current 10-year and 30-year local government bond to government bond spreads are at 16 basis points, with upper limits of approximately 23 and 21 basis points, respectively, suggesting limited room for further increases in spreads [4] Group 3: Industry Performance - The report highlights the top-performing industries in January, with Media leading at 25.5%, followed by Non-ferrous Metals at 23.2%, and Defense Industry at 20.5%, while the bottom performers included Banks at -2.5% and Food & Beverage at -1.8% [1] - Over the past year, Non-ferrous Metals showed a remarkable increase of 112.4%, indicating strong sector performance [1] Group 4: Company Insights - The report emphasizes that SenDa Group is a leading player in China's overseas expansion into Africa, leveraging its capabilities to empower the brand LeShuShi through channel, product, and market structure enhancements [5] - Key success factors for SenDa Group include early identification of the direction for industrial and trade integration, local factory establishment, product localization, and deep channel development [5] - The report draws parallels with the operations of Charoen Pokphand Group in China, suggesting that there are valuable lessons to be learned from their century-long operational history [5] Group 5: Strategic Partnerships - The report details a strategic cross-holding agreement between SF Express and J&T Express, where SF will acquire 10% of J&T's shares, while J&T will hold approximately 4.29% of SF's shares, enhancing long-term cooperation [7] - This partnership aims to leverage both companies' strengths in logistics networks and operational capabilities, facilitating better resource allocation and market coverage in key regions [8]

Investment Rating - The report rates the investment in Leshu Comfort (乐舒适) as "Buy" with projected EPS of 0.16 in 2024, increasing to 0.25 by 2027, and a PE ratio decreasing from 24.20 in 2024 to 133.60 in 2027 [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that SenDa Group is a leading Chinese enterprise in Africa, leveraging its capabilities to empower Leshu Comfort through its channel, product, and market structure [1]. - SenDa Group has established a comprehensive industrial group that integrates overseas manufacturing, international trade, and industrial investment, with a strong presence in various sectors including home decoration materials, fast-moving consumer goods, and hardware [1][12]. - The report draws parallels between SenDa Group's expansion in Africa and Charoen Pokphand Group's (正大集团) historical success in China, suggesting that SenDa Group is poised to replicate this success in emerging markets [5][4]. Summary by Sections SenDa Group: Deepening Localization in Africa - SenDa Group has been operating in Africa for over 20 years, transitioning from traditional trade to localized manufacturing, creating jobs, and driving industry development [12][29]. - The company has established 32 manufacturing operations globally, with sales covering over 60 countries, showcasing its strong global operational capabilities [12][14]. - Key factors for SenDa's success include early identification of the integrated trade and manufacturing model, local production, and strong government-business relationships [32][33]. Empowering Leshu Comfort - SenDa Group provides financial support to Leshu Comfort through loans and advances, enhancing its capital turnover efficiency [3]. - The group offers supply chain and management support, including raw materials, technical assistance, and administrative services [3]. - Leshu Comfort has established a wide sales network across 12 countries with 18 branches and over 2800 wholesalers and retailers [3][39]. Learning from Charoen Pokphand Group's Journey - The report identifies several successful strategies from Charoen Pokphand Group's history, such as seizing market opportunities, extending the industrial chain, and diversifying financing channels [4]. - SenDa Group's current trajectory mirrors that of Charoen Pokphand Group, indicating potential for significant growth in Africa [5]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Leshu Comfort's products are competitively priced, with a gross margin of around 30%, making them attractive compared to international brands [38][39]. - The company's localized production strategy allows for rapid response to market demands, reducing shipping times and costs [38][41]. - SenDa Group's investments in local manufacturing not only enhance brand acceptance but also contribute to local economic development [41][42].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Shanghai has made significant progress in enhancing its international trade center during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, improving its position in the global trade network and showcasing the effects of its open policy initiatives [1][4]. - The International Import Expo (CIIE) has been highlighted as a major platform for opening up, with its spillover effects continuing to expand [1][8]. - Shanghai's exhibition area is projected to reach 19.336 million square meters by 2025, with international exhibition space accounting for 80% [4][5]. Group 2 - The port trade scale has reached new heights, with total port trade volume increasing from 8.7 trillion yuan to over 11 trillion yuan, maintaining Shanghai's status as a leading global city [7]. - Shanghai's container throughput has ranked first in the world for 16 consecutive years, while its air cargo volume has jumped to third globally [7]. - The city is promoting the integration of culture, tourism, commerce, and sports, enhancing the international influence of large consumer festivals and continuously improving the capabilities of the international exhibition city [8].

"新浪财经2025年会暨第18届金麒麟论坛"于2026年1月15日在北京举办，本次会议的主题是"十五五开 局，经济新启航——重塑增长范式，共创未来繁荣"。 清华大学中国经济思想与实践研究院院长，清华大学社会科学学院教授李稻葵在演讲中表示，中国经济 增长的潜力仍然是巨大的，对此要有坚定的信心。此外，要实现发展范式升级，升级关键是从发展型政 府升级到推动整个经济综合发展、高质量发展的发展型政府，短期内中国经济还有很多可以期待的亮 点。 但他也谈到，遇到问题不要回避，必须要解决当下的问题，必须要逆转经济增速下行的态势。 李稻葵直言，过去的"发展型政府"模式已不适应新阶段要求，亟需转型。为此，他提出构建"政府与市 场经济学"新框架，建议设立四大国家级协调机制： 一是人力资源发展委员会，统筹教育、医疗、养老等"投资于人"领域； 专题：新浪财经2025年会暨第18届金麒麟论坛 二是房地产发展委员会，强化顶层设计。"房地产方面我提出建议要贴息，现在年轻人买房子一边要付 利息，另一边房价在跌，里外里一年亏10%。算了一笔账，只要拿出70亿，相当于以旧换新的四分之一 财政的钱贴息给老百姓买房，能够撬动280万亿的市场规模，相当 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Xianning aims to enhance regional connectivity and development by 2026, focusing on collaboration with Wuhan and other cities in the Yangtze River middle reaches [1][3] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, Xianning has made significant progress in reforms, with 250 national and provincial pilot reform projects undertaken, and the number of enterprises engaged in import and export activities increasing to 283 [3] - The establishment of the Xianning International Trade "Single Window" service platform has successfully initiated operations, establishing trade relations with 189 countries and regions, and expanding international cooperation [3] Group 2 - Xianning will focus on key areas of regional collaboration, leveraging infrastructure projects like the Tianzi Mountain Bridge and Baizhou Bay Yangtze River Bridge to enhance connectivity and promote industrial and ecological cooperation [3] - The city aims to capitalize on provincial strategic opportunities, such as the Wu-E-Huang-Huang-Xianke Innovation Corridor, to integrate more technology, industry, and cultural tourism projects into the Wuhan metropolitan area’s 15th Five-Year Plan [3] - Efforts will be made to include the revolutionary old areas of Hunan, Hubei, and Jiangxi in the new round of revitalization support, accelerating the establishment of a commercial logistics center and promoting green development initiatives [3][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that by 2025, the number of countries and regions engaging in trade with China will reach 249, with significant increases in trade scale categories [1] - There will be 14 countries and regions with trade volumes exceeding 1 trillion, 62 exceeding 100 billion, and 137 exceeding 10 billion, marking an increase of 2, 6, and 10 respectively compared to 2024 [1] - China has become a major trading partner for over 160 countries and regions globally, an increase of more than 20 since 2020 [1]

（来源：黑龙江日报） 转自：黑龙江日报 本报讯（李聪 张宇涵 记者刘莉）近日，冰城海关运用退税无纸化应用系统为黑龙江省四季辉煌国际贸 易有限公司顺利办理退税业务，合计退回税款98716.53元。这是冰城海关首次办理退税无纸化业务，标 志着冰城海关退税业务正式迈入"全流程线上办、无纸质流转"的数字化新阶段，为辖区外贸企业带来高 效便捷的办事新体验。 黑龙江省四季辉煌国际贸易有限公司相关负责人对此感触颇深："以前办理退税，光整理纸质材料就要 花一两天时间，现在全程线上操作，无需往返，海关与国库实现'零跑腿'，材料上传、进度查询一目了 然，税款很快就到账，大大节省了时间和人力成本，也缓解了企业资金周转压力。" 据了解，海关退税无纸化应用于2025年11月1日在全国海关推广。冰城海关积极推动海关总署退税无纸 化业务落地，增值税抵扣情况核查全面转为线上办理，核查结果实时反馈，大幅缩短了核查周期；企业 退税资料与海关核批意见通过线上渠道直接送达国库，有效减少了资料送交流转时间。同时，国库退税 审核意见可实时同步至海关和企业，审核无误后即向企业指定银行账户办理退税，成功实现国库退税审 批无纸化、海关退税全流程电子化，退税办 ...

那么，特朗普这招到底想干什么？ 我们得先看看他这命令有多"模糊"。 他的声明里，既没说清楚什么叫"跟伊朗有商业往来"，也没说这25%的税是 只针对货物贸易，还是连金融服务也算上。 这种"说了等于没说"的风格，其实是特朗普的惯用伎俩。 他故意把规则弄得模模糊糊，让相关国家和 企业自己去猜、去怕。 2026年1月12日，美国总统特朗普在他的社交平台"真实社交"上丢下一句话：所有跟伊朗做生意的国家，以后跟美国做生意，统统加征25%的关 税。 他还特意强调，这事儿"最终且不可更改"。 消息一出，国际油价应声跳涨，金融市场一阵鸡飞狗跳。 但明眼人都看出来了，这一枪虽然瞄着伊朗，子弹很可能要打中中国。 因为中国是伊朗 最大的贸易伙伴，同时也是美国最重要的贸易伙伴之一。 更要命的是，就在两个多月前，也就是2025年11月，中美刚刚达成阶段性的"贸易休战"协 议，部分关税被暂停或降低了。 特朗普这一下，直接把脆弱的休战局面推到了悬崖边上。 伊朗政府宣布已经控制住全国城镇的局势，并且反过来，首都德黑兰等多个城市爆发了支持政府的大型集会。 伊朗总统和其他高官走上街头，表 示愿意倾听人民声音。 也就在同一天，白宫发言人的调门忽然软 ...

夜晚，浙江金华义乌市城北路热闹非凡，沿街一排颇具异域风情的餐厅内坐满中外客人。在铌萨迩餐厅 内，来自尼泊尔的毕萨正和妻子忙着招呼一桌桌客人。 "今年元旦，店里从早到晚都坐满了。"毕萨一边向客人递上菜单，一边用流利的中文感叹。他与妻子在 义乌打拼已超过10年，见过许多个新年，但眼前这番火爆景象，仍让他们再度真切触摸到这座城市的温 度与活力。 来自巴基斯坦的医学博士生，跨界开起咨询公司；10年创办3家公司的土耳其投资者，外贸生意越做越 大；来自叙利亚的贸易商，连开两家特色餐厅……这些精彩的投资故事，都发生在义乌——拥有超8万 家商铺、被称为"世界超市"的县级市。 自上世纪80年代末首个外资经营主体落户以来，不断深化改革、扩大开放的义乌，以市场化、法治化、 国际化的营商环境吸引全球要素集聚。如今，义乌活跃着来自160余个国家和地区的超1万户外资经营主 体，涵盖商贸服务、现代物流等14个行业领域。他们的到来，让义乌更具活力。 看准机遇，医学生跨界从商 "这座城市的开放与活力深深吸引了我" "没想到这么快就拿到了营业执照，在义乌做生意太方便了。"去年7月，阿里卡姆兰领取了自己新公司 的营业执照，成为义乌第1万户外资经营 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 25% tariff on all countries trading with Iran by the U.S. is aimed at economically isolating Iran, particularly targeting its key trade partners, China and Russia, to achieve a strategic goal of cutting off Iran's external trade [1][3][21]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The tariff represents an escalation of unilateral sanctions to a "global collective punishment," forcing countries to choose between the Iranian and U.S. markets [3][21]. - The sudden announcement bypassed traditional legislative processes, establishing a new trade rule that imposes a 25% fee on any goods entering the U.S. market that are linked to Iran [9][11]. - The complexity of international trade means that many companies may unknowingly have ties to Iran, creating a climate of fear and uncertainty rather than just compliance costs [13][30]. Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The tariff is not merely a trade issue but a geopolitical maneuver aimed at disrupting the economic arteries of Eurasia, particularly affecting China's westward expansion and Russia's southern access [7][21]. - The relationship between Iran, China, and Russia is evolving, with trade increasingly conducted in local currencies and bypassing the U.S. dollar, indicating a shift away from the traditional dollar-dominated system [23][37]. - The U.S. strategy may backfire, as countries like China and Russia have developed resilience against U.S. sanctions, potentially leading to a parallel trade system that undermines U.S. economic influence [30][38]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The announcement has already caused immediate reactions in global shipping insurance rates, highlighting the swift impact of U.S. policy changes on international markets [5]. - The emergence of a "ghost fleet" of ships operating outside Western insurance systems is a direct response to U.S. sanctions, indicating a shift in how global trade is conducted [25][30]. - The potential for rising oil prices due to supply chain disruptions could lead to renewed inflationary pressures in the U.S., reminiscent of past oil crises [28][30].