Core Argument - The article discusses the implications of the post-AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) economy, arguing that while AI may outperform humans in efficiency and cost, the demand for human-created goods and services will persist due to the cultural creation of scarcity and status-driven consumption [1][7]. Historical Context - Wealth was historically defined by social hierarchy rather than monetary assets, with the absence of a middle class in many societies leading to a clear distinction between rulers and the ruled [2][3]. - In pre-modern economies, money was not a core element, as social structures dictated wealth measurement based on the number of subordinates one could command [2][3]. Modern Economic Dynamics - The modern economy operates as a network of exchanges, where specialization and complexity necessitate the invention of money and finance to facilitate transactions [4]. - Current societal wealth surpasses that of the richest individuals in ancient times, yet human dissatisfaction persists, largely driven by status competition [4][6]. Labor and Automation - The Baumol effect suggests that as long as there is any demand for human labor in a rapidly growing AI economy, wages will remain high, but this could change as automation becomes more prevalent [5]. - The phenomenon known as the Jevons Paradox indicates that increased efficiency in robotic labor could lead to a higher overall demand for labor [5]. Status and Scarcity - The article highlights the importance of status competition in affluent societies, noting that as wealth increases, the competition for status intensifies, leading to a decline in birth rates [6][9]. - Veblen goods, such as luxury items, derive their value from their scarcity and the social status they confer, suggesting that the creation of artificial scarcity will remain crucial in a future dominated by AI [8]. Future of Human Labor - Despite the rise of AI and robotics, there is a belief that human-provided goods and services will still be desired, as humans have shown remarkable creativity in generating scarcity for status purposes [9]. - The article posits that as human labor becomes scarcer, the value of human-created products may increase, potentially leading to a resurgence in birth rates as the dynamics of wealth and status evolve [9].

2月12日，爱马仕集团发布2025年第四季度及全年财报。2025财年全年营收同比增长5.5%至 160亿欧元，按固定汇率计算同比增长9%；营业利润同比增长6.8%至65.7亿欧元，营业利润 率提升至41%；净利润同比增长5.5%至45.2亿欧元，整体表现稳健。其中，以中国为首的亚 太区（不包括日本）实现5%的增长，贡献了全球销售额的42%。相比LVMH集团和开云集 团去年在亚洲市场分别录得4%、19%的下滑，中国消费者买包仍然是"一马当先"。 【2025年奢侈品集团财报】 奢侈品新年回暖风向标，卡地亚母公司"开门红"业绩超预期 奢侈品消费复苏是假象？LVMH去年收入下降5%，股价跳水 古驰连续十季销售下滑，拖累母公司全年收入少了200亿 爱马仕财报显示，2025年第四季度集团收入同比增长3%至40.9亿欧元，按固定汇率计算增长10%，这一 表现亦超越了该季度LVMH同比下跌5%、开云同比下跌3%，但略低于历峰集团2026财年第三季度增长 11%。 值得关注的是，爱马仕核心的皮具与马具部门第四季度收入大涨14.6%至17.9亿欧元，高于市场 预期的12.6%，在第三季度13.3%的增速上继续增长。在欧美节日奢侈 ...

Group 1 - UBS has raised the target price for Hermès International from €2260 to €2310 [1]

Financing Dynamics - The outdoor brand "Outopia" has completed a Series B financing round, attracting significant investment from leading capital, validating its positioning in trail running and international team value, and providing ample funds for product development, market expansion, and global layout [1][3] - The AI perfume design platform Osmo has announced a new financing round of $70 million, which will be used to expand its team and continue developing its core AI models [5] Acquisitions & Sales - DSM-Firmenich is set to sell its animal nutrition business to private equity firm CVC, with the animal nutrition and health department expected to generate approximately €3.5 billion in annual sales by 2025 [6][8] - The iconic French children's clothing brand JACADI Paris has been acquired by Blue Water Venture Partners, LLC, with expectations of significant expansion potential in the North American market [9][11] - Playboy (PLBY) has signed a final agreement to sell 50% of its Chinese business to United Trademark Group (UTG) for a total of $122 million, which will allow UTG to fully manage Playboy's operations in China, Hong Kong, and Macau [13] Financial Reports - SKP is projected to see a 15% increase in revenue by 2025, with its flagship Beijing SKP achieving a 6.8% growth to reach ¥23.5 billion [16] - Kering Group reported a 9% decline in revenue for Q4 2025, amounting to €3.91 billion, primarily due to the underperformance of its core brand Gucci and restructuring costs [19] Personnel Dynamics - LVMH has appointed Véronique Courtois as the new CEO of its beauty division and Antoine Arnault has joined the executive committee, indicating a shift towards a more family-centric governance structure [21] - Hugo Boss has appointed Dietmar Knoess as the new Senior Vice President of Global Human Resources, tasked with organizational restructuring amid performance challenges [24] - Saks Global has appointed Cheryl Han as the Chief Marketing and Digital Officer, aiming to enhance digital integration across its brands [27]

Financing Dynamics - AI sports wear brand "MossCode" has completed a multi-million RMB angel round financing, with a valuation reaching $100 million [3] - The funding will be used to expand the product R&D team and stabilize mass production, laying the groundwork for launching in the European and American markets in the first half of 2026 [3] - The investment reflects the capital market's recognition of the growth potential in the AI smart sports wear segment [3] Company Developments - Barry Callebaut plans to invest €250 million (approximately 2.06 billion RMB) to upgrade its factory in Wieze, Belgium, the largest chocolate production base globally [5] - The investment aims to enhance manufacturing capabilities in Europe amid ongoing volatility in the global cocoa market [5] - Dingdong Maicai reassured users that its operations remain stable and quality standards unchanged following acquisition news [8] - Crayon Shin-chan Foods announced a HKD 188 million acquisition of Qucloud AI HK Limited, marking its transition towards an AI-driven data company [10] - A related company of "Self-heating Pot" has been applied for bankruptcy review, highlighting the financial struggles faced by the brand [13] Market Trends - The health-focused tea drink leader Nayuki has opened a new "Fiber Studio" store in Shenzhen, emphasizing low GI and high fiber products [17] - This move represents Nayuki's shift from a "third space" concept to promoting a "healthy lifestyle," aiming to increase customer spending and repeat purchases [17] Personnel Changes - Thierry Conrad Reutenauer has been promoted to Chief Marketing Officer at Loewe, reflecting LVMH's recognition of the brand's narrative [21] - The departure of Patou's artistic director may indicate a strategic shift towards focusing on its core perfume business [24] - Guillaume Pats has been appointed Chief Commercial Officer at Saint Laurent, tasked with integrating global wholesale, retail, and e-commerce strategies [27] - Canada Goose appointed Patrick Bourke as North America President, responsible for enhancing brand connections with consumers in the region [30]

法国的算盘打得响亮，却忽略了一个基本事实：欧盟早已不是铁板一块。这一激进的提案刚一出台，便在欧洲内部引起了巨大的反响。德国的汽车产业深 度依赖中国市场，刚刚与中国达成了千亿级规模的合作订单，若对华加税，无异于自断其臂，必将严重损害本国企业利益。荷兰、匈牙利、西班牙等国与 中国有着紧密的经贸关系，从制造业供应链到投资、就业，都与中国市场紧密相连，根本不愿意跟随法国冒着贸易战的巨大风险。 即便是法国内部，也充满了模棱两可的态度。法国财长公开表示不支持那种一刀切的极端方案，而欧盟官方则始终保持沉默，既不表态支持，也不表态反 对，显然是希望法国先行试探国际舆论以及中国方面的反应，自己则躲在幕后避免承受直接压力。这种放风试探、幕后观望的操作方式，与此前在电动汽 车关税风波中的手段如出一辙。 自由贸易的口号听得再响亮，也抵挡不了某些西方国家在利益面前撕开伪装，露出真正的贸易保护主义面孔。继电动汽车关税风波之后，法国再次站在对 华挑衅的前沿，官方智库直接发布了一份激烈的报告，呼吁欧盟27个成员国联手，对中国商品加征最高30%的关税，甚至还公然建议照搬当年压制日本的 广场协议，强行让人民币对欧元大幅升值。法国试图通过贸易壁垒 ...

Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock markets showed mixed performance, with South Korea's KOSPI index rising by 3.1% to 5,522 points and Thailand's index increasing by 2.1% to 1,441 points, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell by 0.9% to 27,032 points[17][9]. - In the U.S., major indices declined significantly, with the Dow Jones dropping 1.34% to 49,451 points, the S&P 500 down 1.57% to 6,832 points, and the Nasdaq falling 2.03% to 22,597 points[7][6]. Economic Indicators - The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised down its global oil demand growth forecast, contributing to a 2.77% drop in WTI crude oil prices, closing at $62.84 per barrel[23]. - Strong U.S. employment data led to a decrease in gold prices, which fell below $5,000 per ounce, closing at $4,923.7[23]. Currency Movements - The British pound fell for three consecutive days, trading at 1.362 against the U.S. dollar, while the Japanese yen appreciated for four days, reaching 152.74 per dollar[23]. - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.1% to 96.93, while the dollar's value against the Chinese yuan was 6.901, up by 0.2%[22]. Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields fell to year-to-date lows, with the 30-year yield dropping to 4.73% after strong demand in a recent auction[26]. - The Asian bond market saw reduced trading activity, but some segments experienced narrowing spreads due to buying interest[26]. Sector Performance - In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly by 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.86%, driven by a surge in the computing power industry[13]. - Conversely, large technology stocks in Hong Kong faced declines, with notable drops in companies like Alibaba and Tencent, while semiconductor stocks showed strength[9].

Core Insights - The collapse of the "female economy" is marked by the rapid decline of beauty-driven business models, particularly in live streaming and the beauty industry, following the permanent ban of influencer Zhou Yuan's accounts, which generated 24 million in revenue in a short time [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The live streaming industry, once thriving on beauty and superficial appeal, is experiencing a significant downturn as audiences grow tired of repetitive content and aesthetic fatigue sets in [3] - The number of banned live streaming accounts reached 370,000, with over 10,000 being beauty influencers, indicating a severe crackdown on low-quality content and a shift towards value-driven content [3] - The traditional nightlife sector, which relied on beauty for revenue, is facing a decline in customer traffic and an increase in closure rates of core business locations, leading to reduced income for those who previously thrived on their looks [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The medical beauty industry is witnessing a sharp increase in business closures, with 12,000 companies shutting down in 2025, a 50% increase from 2024, largely due to the tightening of beauty loans [5] - The luxury goods market is also cooling, reflecting a significant drop in male consumer spending, which was previously driven by emotional consumption linked to beauty [5] - The economic downturn has led to a reduction in discretionary spending, particularly on non-essential items like beauty and luxury goods, as consumers prioritize essential expenses [6] Group 3: Underlying Issues - The collapse of the "female economy" is attributed to three main factors: increased regulatory scrutiny, economic downturn affecting emotional spending, and aesthetic fatigue from oversaturation in the beauty market [6] - Regulatory measures have intensified against the objectification of women and low-quality content, marking a clear shift in societal values [6] - The oversaturation of beauty influencers and the lack of unique value propositions have rendered mere physical appearance insufficient for attracting consumer interest [6]

Market Overview - The US CPI data release has heightened fears regarding AI's potential to disrupt various industries, leading to significant declines in US stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, with funds flowing into US Treasuries. The S&P 500 fell by 1.6%, and the Nasdaq dropped over 2% [2] - Cisco's weak guidance resulted in a 12% plunge in its stock, while Apple led the tech giants with a 5% drop. Software ETF declined by 2.7%, and the Russell 3000 trucking index saw a mid-session drop of 9% [2][22] - Gold prices fell over 3%, dropping below $5,000, and silver plummeted by 11%. Oil prices also decreased by 3%, with Brent crude dipping below $67 [3] Key Developments in China - The Ministry of Commerce of China responded to EU tax exemptions on SUVs and dairy products, indicating that EU subsidies have harmed Chinese industries. A final ruling on anti-subsidy measures will be implemented starting February 13, 2026 [4][18] - New regulations in China's automotive industry state that selling vehicles below production costs poses significant legal risks, aiming to curb price undercutting practices [18] Semiconductor and AI Sector - Huahong Semiconductor reported record sales in Q4, achieving profitability for the first time, with Q1 sales expected to be between $650 million and $660 million. The company benefited from high demand in the Chinese market and consumer electronics [6][20] - The AI sector saw significant activity, with Zhiyuan's GLM-5 model achieving a 40% increase in stock price, and the model's coding plan sold out immediately. This reflects a shift from price competition to a focus on programming and intelligent agents [19] International Developments - The US Treasury Secretary agreed to transfer the investigation of Powell to the Senate Banking Committee, aiming to ease political tensions [21] - A $550 billion investment fund between the US and Japan will focus on data centers, oil terminals, and synthetic diamonds, with projects expected to start within 45 working days once confirmed [21] AI and Technology Advancements - Google's Gemini 3 model achieved significant upgrades, scoring high on various benchmarks, indicating its potential for research and engineering applications [22] - OpenAI released a new model supported by Cerebras chips, marking a significant development in real-time coding capabilities [23] - Anthropic secured $30 billion in funding, raising its valuation to $380 billion, enhancing its competitive position against OpenAI [23] Market Performance Summary - The S&P 500 closed down 1.57% at 6832.76 points, while the Nasdaq fell 2.04% to 22597.148 points. In contrast, the A-share market showed slight gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.05% [13]

Investment News - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is enhancing the "fixed income +" multi-asset index and ETF product system to provide diverse quality targets for wealth management and medium to long-term capital allocation, with an expected market benefit of approximately 1.113 billion yuan by 2026 [4] - Public fund issuance has exceeded 200 billion yuan this year, with 46 funds established on February 10 and 11 alone. Equity mixed funds have raised over 70 billion yuan, becoming the most prominent category, while mixed FOFs have raised over 45 billion yuan [4] - The China Securities Index Company announced the upcoming release of the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Robotics Theme Index and the CSI US Stock 30 Index on February 27, which includes major companies like Netflix, Goldman Sachs, Meta, Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia [4] - The total margin financing and securities lending balance has increased by approximately 800 billion yuan over the past year, reaching 2.64 trillion yuan as of February 11, compared to 1.86 trillion yuan at the beginning of 2025 [5] Company Developments - BMW Group announced a global recall of several hundred thousand vehicles due to potential safety hazards in the engine start device [6] - Shuangliang Energy disclosed it received an order from SpaceX, leading to a stock price surge. However, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a regulatory warning due to insufficient risk disclosure regarding the order, which amounts to approximately 1.7 million euros and involves indirect supply [6] - ByteDance's Doubao video generation model Seedance 2.0 has been integrated into the Doubao App, computer, and web versions, with a significant upgrade expected on February 14. The model has gained international attention, including from Tesla's CEO Elon Musk [6] - Lenovo Group reported third-quarter revenue of 22.2 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 18%, with AI-related revenue growing by 72%, accounting for 32% of total revenue. Net profit reached 545.5 million USD, with a gross margin of 15.1% [7] - Hua Hong Semiconductor anticipates a record high sales revenue of 659.9 million USD in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.9%. The expected sales revenue for Q1 2026 is between 650 million and 660 million USD, with a gross margin of 13% to 15% [7] - Hermès reported a 9.8% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4, exceeding market expectations, with a 14.6% organic growth in its core leather and equestrian department. The annual operating profit reached 6.57 billion euros, with an operating margin of 41% [7]