Core Insights - The global economic and trade landscape is undergoing significant structural adjustments, with challenges arising from geopolitical tensions, trade barriers, financial volatility, and technological changes [1][3] - Companies need to develop resilience, innovate, and create safer global supply chains while leveraging regional cooperation and exploring emerging markets to secure value and influence in uncertain international markets [3][4] Group 1: Globalization Challenges and Strategies - The future of globalization is characterized by resilience, integration, innovation, and rules, necessitating companies to move beyond traditional thinking [3] - The systemic decline in investment returns globally, particularly in the U.S., raises questions about the sustainability of growth policies and their impact on efficiency [4][6] - The U.S. trade deficit is exacerbated by debt reliance, and tariffs may not effectively address trade imbalances, highlighting the importance of adapting supply chains [6] Group 2: Digital Currency and Regulatory Insights - The rise of stablecoins is reshaping the monetary landscape, with regulatory frameworks emerging to ensure their stability and utility as payment tools [7][8] - China is encouraged to accelerate the development of its digital currency to compete with stablecoins, emphasizing the need for effective legislation and international coordination [8] Group 3: Localization and Global Operations - Companies like GE Aviation emphasize the importance of localization in their success in China, with significant investments in local talent and infrastructure [11] - Ganfeng Lithium's global expansion reflects the necessity for Chinese firms to respect local cultures and regulations while leveraging their competitive advantages [11] - Lenovo's strategy combines Chinese manufacturing strengths with digital management to navigate global market uncertainties [12] Group 4: Internationalization and Corporate Strategies - China National Petroleum Corporation's internationalization strategy involves a three-phase approach, focusing on global standardization while maintaining local responsiveness [13] - The need for Chinese enterprises to innovate beyond mere product exports to achieve sustainable growth is highlighted, with examples of successful international strategies [17] Group 5: Economic Outlook and Future Growth - Despite challenges, global trade has maintained a stable share of GDP, with China showing strong performance in exports, although structural issues remain [16] - The future of China's economy relies on both macroeconomic policy adjustments and the ability of enterprises to find differentiated paths in the new phase of globalization [17]

4. 法巴银行：欧元区需依靠更多国防和基建支出来缓解老龄化压力 1. 高盛策略师：上调亚洲股票目标，调高港股评级 高盛集团策略师上调了对亚洲股市的预期，理由是宏观经济环境更加有利，关税的确定性增加。以 Timothy Moe为首的策略师在周五的一份报告中表示，MSCI亚太（除日本外）指数的12个月目标指数上 调了3%，至700点，这意味着在此期间以美元计算的回报率为9%。该团队还将港股评级上调至"持 股"（market weight），并称其将在美联储开启宽松周期、美元走弱的背景下成为主要受益者之一。他 们补充称，菲律宾等也是对这一趋势最为敏感、受益最大的市场之一。策略师们表示："关税征收和宽 松的货币政策可能是第三季度对亚洲股市的重要宏观影响。"他们指出，即便最终实施的关税税率略高 于当前的基线预期，"其对基本面增长的冲击可能不会像市场在第二季度初所担忧的那样严重。" 2. 美银：全球经济不确定性中，布油价格保持坚挺 美国银行大宗商品策略师Francisco Blanch表示，尽管今年全球经济增长和地缘政治方面存在不确定性， 但布伦特原油价格仍表现出较强韧性，今年1月以来平均价格维持在每桶70.75美元。这 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has upgraded the outlook for Asian stock markets, citing increased certainty in tariff policies and a loose monetary environment as positive factors for the region's stock markets [1] - The firm raised its 12-month target price for the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index by 3% to 700 points, anticipating a 9% return in USD terms [1] - The upgrade is primarily driven by a more favorable macro environment and enhanced certainty in tariff policies, with the firm noting that the negative impact on fundamental growth from slightly higher tariff rates may not be as severe as previously feared [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has upgraded its rating for Hong Kong stocks from underweight to market weight, based on expectations that the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle will weaken the USD, benefiting markets like Hong Kong [1] - The firm highlighted that the Hang Seng Index and MSCI Hong Kong Index have recorded at least an 18% increase since the downgrade to underweight in November of the previous year [1] - The firm also identified the Philippines as one of the most sensitive regional markets to the Federal Reserve's easing policies [1] Group 3 - Earnings growth is expected to be the main driver of returns in regional stock markets, with a forward P/E ratio of 14 times aligning with the "macro model fair value," providing a reasonable valuation basis for future earnings [2] - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight stance on the stock markets of China, Japan, and South Korea, while downgrading Malaysia's stock market rating to underweight [1][2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that rising stock prices are contributing to increased PCE inflation, which could complicate the investment environment and limit future monetary policy options [1][2][3] - The report highlights that the stock market rebound is expected to contribute at least 6 basis points to core PCE inflation in June, reversing the previous drag on inflation from the investment management category [1][9] - The correlation between stock price changes and PCE investment management inflation is significant, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.245, indicating a notable relationship [4] Group 2 - In April and May, the investment management category was a drag on core inflation, but the recent stock market rebound suggests this will shift to being a driver of inflation in the coming months [3][9] - The overall impact of this "swing factor" is quantified to reach 7 basis points, making it difficult for core PCE to remain at low levels [7]

金十数据7月11日讯，高盛集团策略师上调了对亚洲股市的预期，理由是宏观经济环境更加有利，关税 的确定性增加。以Timothy Moe为首的策略师在周五的一份报告中表示，MSCI亚太（除日本外）指数的 12个月目标指数上调了3%，至700点，这意味着在此期间以美元计算的回报率为9%。该团队还将港股 评级上调至"持股"（market weight），并称其将在美联储开启宽松周期、美元走弱的背景下成为主要受 益者之一。他们补充称，菲律宾等也是对这一趋势最为敏感、受益最大的市场之一。策略师们表 示："关税征收和宽松的货币政策可能是第三季度对亚洲股市的重要宏观影响。"他们指出，即便最终实 施的关税税率略高于当前的基线预期，"其对基本面增长的冲击可能不会像市场在第二季度初所担忧的 那样严重。" 高盛策略师：上调亚洲股票目标，调高港股评级 ...

高盛集团将本・华莱士晋升为美洲地区并购业务联席主管。 ...

高盛2026年暑期分析员、暑期经理 及新分析员 计划已经开始接受网上申请 。阅读下文以了解项目内容 和和岗位地点，点击文末 阅读原文 可跳转高盛招聘网站递交申请。 招聘项目 暑期分析员 (Summer Analyst) 计划您的时间表 针对将于2026年8月至2027年7月间毕业的本科生/硕士生 到岗时间：2026年6月至8月 报名截止：2025年10月5日 针对将于2026年8月至2027年7月间毕业的硕士生，包括MBA, PhD, JD, MD和LLM 到岗时间：2026年6月至8月 报名截止：2025年11月16日 针对将于2025年8月至2026年7月间毕业的本科生/硕士生 报名截止：2025年10月5日 资产及财富管理部 Asset & Wealth Management 资金部 Corporate Treasury 信息技术部 Engineering 研究部 Global Investment Research 全球银行及市场部 - 固定收益、外汇、大宗商品及股票业务 Global Banking & Markets - FICC & Equities 全球银行及 市场部 - 投资银行业务 Glo ...

今年美股"最强交易"开始变盘了？ 动量策略今年在美股表现强劲。年初至今，在标普500仅上涨5%的情况下，高盛动量策略指数同期上涨了20%。如果把期限拓展到18个月，在标普500上涨 30%的情况下，高盛高Beta动量对冲指数（GSPRHIMO）同期涨幅达到惊人的80%。 历史数据揭示更深调整风险 摩根士丹利QDS主管Chris Metli表示，虽然当前事件的严重程度可能不及2月底至3月初DeepSeek引发的暴跌（当时MSZZMOMO篮子暴跌21%），但考虑 到持续的高空头杠杆，近期可能还有更多下跌空间。 历史统计显示，动量策略在经历6%回调后，未来一个月的回报通常为轻微负数（-1%）。更值得注意的是，典型的动量指数（MSZZMOMO）峰值到谷底的 跌幅为23%，持续时间约30个交易日。 目前的回调已进入第5天，6%的跌幅与历史同期中位数水平一致，这表明如果回调继续，仍有进一步下跌空间。 | | | | | Duration | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Long Leg | Short Leg | Net Factor | SPX ...

Core Viewpoint - The traditional safe-haven status of the US dollar is facing significant challenges this year, with a notable weakening of its risk-hedging properties, prompting global investors to rethink their foreign exchange hedging strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Weakening Safe-Haven Status - The dollar has frequently depreciated during US stock market pullbacks this year, with the probability of simultaneous declines in stocks and the dollar rising from a historical average of 16% to 33% [2]. - The simultaneous decline of stocks, US Treasuries, and the dollar has become more frequent, indicating a decrease in the overall attractiveness of US assets [2]. Group 2: Factors Limiting Dollar Recovery - High policy uncertainty, including issues related to tariff policies and Federal Reserve independence, is a primary reason for the dollar's inability to quickly regain its traditional safe-haven status [3]. - The trend of capital diversification and a narrowing advantage in US returns further supports the rationale for portfolio diversification away from the dollar [3]. - Concerns over fiscal stability may resurface, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop of "widening spreads leading to dollar depreciation," exacerbating fears of capital outflows and Treasury sell-offs [3]. Group 3: Adjustments in Foreign Exchange Hedging Strategies - Goldman Sachs' quantitative analysis indicates a significant change in the effectiveness of foreign exchange hedging strategies, with foreign investors achieving higher average returns on hedged US stocks compared to unhedged strategies over the past six months [4]. - European investors have seen the most substantial benefits from hedging strategies, while Canadian investors have also experienced improved results [4]. - Despite the benefits, hedging costs remain a limiting factor for some investors, although a potential Fed rate cut may encourage adjustments from investors in regions with lower domestic rates, such as Japan [4]. Group 4: Potential for Continued Dollar Depreciation - While Goldman Sachs does not foresee a permanent shift in the dollar's safe-haven appeal, the current environment resembles a mild depreciation similar to 2017 rather than a historical crash [5]. - The increasing pathways leading to dollar weakness and the rising likelihood of atypical correlations suggest a risk of more significant and prolonged depreciation than currently anticipated [5]. - A potential cycle of "capital flight leading to dollar decline leading to further capital flight" could result in a more substantial and longer-lasting depreciation than expected [5].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised its S&P 500 index valuation and return forecasts, reflecting optimism about economic growth and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [3][4]. Group 1: S&P 500 Index Forecasts - The S&P 500 index return forecasts have been adjusted to +3% (6400 points) for 1 month, +6% (6600 points) for 3 months, and +11% (6900 points) for 12 months [3]. - The forward price-to-earnings ratio forecast for the S&P 500 index has been increased from 20.4x to 22x, supported by strong fundamentals of large stocks and investor sentiment [3]. - Previous index targets were 5900 points, 6100 points, and 6500 points, indicating a significant upward revision [3]. Group 2: Earnings Predictions and Risks - Earnings per share growth is maintained at +7% for both 2025 and 2026, but there are risks in both directions, with a reassessment planned after Q2 earnings reports [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs poses a significant risk to earnings forecasts, particularly affecting corporate profits [3]. Group 3: Market Breadth and Investment Recommendations - The median constituent stock is still over 10% below its 52-week high, leading to one of the narrowest market breadth readings in decades [4]. - Despite the narrow breadth indicating potential for a larger-than-average pullback, Goldman Sachs believes that "catch-up" is more likely than "catch-down," expecting market gains to expand in the coming months [4]. - Investment recommendations for the second half of 2025 include balanced sector allocation, overweighting software and services, materials, utilities, media and entertainment, and real estate [8].