Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the earnings forecast for Dekang Agriculture (02419) for 2025/26, with a target price of HKD 111, indicating a 33% upside potential from the current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Dekang Agriculture reported 1H25 revenue of CNY 11.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%, and net profit of CNY 1.27 billion, up 250.6%, aligning with CICC's expectations [2] - The significant growth in performance is attributed to improved management efficiency and a decrease in pig costs [2] Group 2: Business Segments - The swine business continues to expand with high quality, contributing to revenue growth; 1H25 swine revenue increased by 32.6% to CNY 9.88 billion, with sales volume up 27.1% to 5.1174 million heads [3] - Poultry business remains stable, with 1H25 revenue of CNY 1.34 billion and a 7.2% increase in yellow feather chicken sales to 43 million birds [3] - The slaughtering and ancillary products segment also saw growth, with revenue up 16.1% to CNY 480 million and slaughter volume increasing by 18.5% to 249,000 heads [3] Group 3: Cost and Financial Health - Dekang Agriculture maintains a leading cost advantage in the industry, with 1H25 swine production costs below CNY 12.5 per kilogram, and a PSY of 27 heads per year, also industry-leading [4] - The company's asset-liability ratio improved to 59.9% in 1H25, down 14.3 percentage points from 1H24, indicating ongoing financial health [4] Group 4: Growth Strategy and Value Recovery - The company employs a light-asset model with a unique breeding farm system, achieving lower capital expenditure and binding closely with cooperative farmers; the average breeding fee reached CNY 800,000 per farm, up 15.5% [5] - Dekang Agriculture leverages superior breeding technology and precise nutrition to maintain low-cost advantages, with expectations for continued excess profits per head [5] - Following the release of the 2024 annual report, the company's growth narrative has gained recognition, and liquidity improvements have led to value recovery, with an estimated market value of CNY 2,623 per head, indicating potential for further valuation enhancement [5]

牛肉价格震荡回升，主要是受市场阶段性调节影响所致。受产能去化、海外牛肉价格回暖，以及国内进 口牛肉调整政策加码影响，2025年牛肉进口预计量减价增，牛肉产业来自低价进口牛肉的压力边际趋 弱。据中国海关统计数据显示，截至2025年上半年我国进口牛肉130万吨，同比减少9.5%。预计未来我 国牛肉供给端出现明显下降，牛肉价格有望再创新高。 山东省畜牧总站最新统计数据显示，受供强需弱等因素影响，本周猪肉价格承压走低，最新统计肉价为 25.68元/公斤，同比降低22.60%，环比回落0.62%。此外，受市场供需影响，牛肉价格持续小幅向上， 羊肉价格承压弱势回落。鸡蛋价格承压，前期低位回升后本周再度回落，跌破"7"元。 鉴于现阶段出栏均重仍处历史同期高位，且近期天气炎热或加速前期压栏大猪出栏，生猪整体供应充足 对价格形成压制，预计8月中下旬生猪二次育肥受限，出栏体重调减，生猪供应或集中上量，生猪价格 或进一步震荡略偏弱运行，呈季节性走弱趋势。 据全省监测样本县数据，本周全省肥猪出栏均价为14.25元/公斤，同比降低29.66%，环比降低1.86%。 消费回暖不及预期，猪肉价格回落走低，本周猪肉均价为25.68元/公斤， ...

2025年8月18日，晓鸣股份(300967.SZ)发布2025年中报。 公司营业总收入为7.52亿元，较去年同报告期营业总收入增加3.64亿元，同比较去年同期上涨93.65%。归母净利润为1.85亿元，较去年同报告期归母净利润 增加2.14亿元，实现2年连续上涨。经营活动现金净流入为2.24亿元，较去年同报告期经营活动现金净流入增加1.64亿元，同比较去年同期上涨272.39%。 | 序号 | 股东名称 | 持股 | | --- | --- | --- | | l | 魏晓明 | 42.6. | | 2 | 正大投资股份有限公司 | 12.0. | | 3 | 广州谢诺辰途股权投资管理有限公司-厦门辰途创业投资合伙企业(有限合伙) | 3.84 | | ব | 广州谢诺辰途股权投资管理有限公司-辰途第一产业股权投资基金 | 1.16 | | 5 | 北京大北农科技集团股份有限公司 | 0.70 | | 6 | 浙商银行股份有限公司-国泰中证畜牧养殖交易型开放式指数证券投资基金 | 0.57 | | 7 | 石玉盞 | 0.53 | | 8 | 杜建峰 | 0.53 | | g | 王学强 | 0.45 | ...

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 752 million yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 185 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [1] - The operating cash flow net inflow was 224 million yuan [1] Financial Metrics - The latest debt-to-asset ratio stands at 45.35% [3] - The gross profit margin is 34.00%, which is a decrease of 1.04 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [3] - The return on equity (ROE) is 20.35% [3] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is 0.99 yuan [4] - The total asset turnover ratio is 0.45 times [4] - The inventory turnover ratio is 4.85 times, a decrease of 0.25 times or 4.95% compared to the same period last year [4] Shareholder Information - The number of shareholders is 17,100, with the top ten shareholders holding a total of 118 million shares, accounting for 62.83% of the total share capital [4] - The largest shareholder, Wei Xiaoming, holds 42.63% of the shares [4] - Other significant shareholders include Zhengda Investment Co., Ltd. with 12.03% and Guangzhou Xie Nuo Chen Tu Equity Investment Management Co., Ltd. with 3.84% [4]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of promoting a reasonable recovery in prices as a key consideration for monetary policy [4] - The U.S. government expands the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports by 50%, including hundreds of derivative products [7] - President Trump announces plans to impose tariffs on semiconductors, potentially reaching 300% [8] Group 2 - Southbound funds recorded a net purchase of 35.876 billion HKD, setting a new historical single-day net purchase record [9] - Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Chen Maobo announced plans to develop an international gold trading center, with a proposal expected by the end of the year [10] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved futures and options for various commodities, including cultural paper, enhancing the product offerings of the Shanghai Futures Exchange [11] Group 3 - Huayou Cobalt reported a net profit of 2.711 billion CNY for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 62.26% [13] - Shengnong Development achieved a net profit of 910 million CNY in the first half of the year, a significant year-on-year increase of 791.93% [15] - Dongfang Caifu reported a net profit of 5.567 billion CNY for the first half of the year, up 37.27% year-on-year [24]

| 宁夏晓鸣农牧股份有限公司 | | | 2025 | 年半年度报告摘要 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码：300967 | | 证券简称：晓鸣股份 | | 公告编号：2025-117 | | | 债券代码：123189 债券简称：晓鸣转债 | | | | | | | 宁夏晓鸣农牧股份有限公司 | | | | | | | | | | | 宁夏晓鸣农牧股份有限公司 2025 | 年半年度报 | | 告摘要 | | | | | | | 一、重要提示 | | | | | | | 本半年度报告摘要来自半年度报告全文，为全面了解本公司的经营成果、财务状况及未来发展规划，投 | | | | | | | 资者应当到证监 | | | | | | | 会指定媒体仔细阅读半年度报告全文。 | | | | | | | 所有董事均已出席了审议本报告的董事会会议。 | | | | | | | 非标准审计意见提示 | | | | | | | □适用 ?不适用 | | | | | | | 董事会审议的报告期利润分配预案或公积金转增股本预案 | | | | | | | □适用 ...

Core Points - The company has provided a guarantee of RMB 923.67 million for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Guangxi Chongzuo Shennong Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd., for a fixed asset loan from CITIC Bank Kunming Technology Branch [1][4] - As of July 31, 2025, the total guarantee balance provided by the company for its subsidiaries is RMB 13,790.84 million [1] - The company has approved a total guarantee limit of RMB 251 million for the year 2025, which includes various categories such as bank loans, raw material purchases, and performance guarantees [2] Guarantee Overview - The guarantee provided by the company is aimed at meeting the operational needs of its subsidiaries and aligns with the company's overall interests and development strategy [6][7] - The company has established strict screening standards and risk prevention measures for the guarantees provided, ensuring that the risks are controllable [6] Financial Details - As of July 31, 2025, the total external guarantee balance of the company and its subsidiaries is RMB 68,436.26 million, which accounts for 14.16% of the company's latest audited net assets [7] - The guarantees provided to subsidiaries amount to RMB 68,399.54 million, representing 14.15% of the latest audited net assets [7] Approval Process - The guarantee plan was approved during the board meeting on April 25, 2025, and subsequently ratified at the annual shareholders' meeting on May 20, 2025 [2][6] Risk Management - The company has implemented measures to mitigate risks associated with the guarantees, including setting up counter-guarantees and ensuring that the guaranteed entities have strong creditworthiness [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [6] Core Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to experience upward trends in beef prices due to a reduction in U.S. beef production forecasts for 2026 [4] - The report highlights a tightening supply-demand balance for corn, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [2] - The soybean market is influenced by U.S. trade policies and weather conditions, with a positive long-term outlook [2] - Wheat supply remains ample, with prices expected to stabilize at lower levels [3] - Sugar prices are anticipated to fluctuate due to increased imports and oil price volatility [3] - Cotton prices are expected to remain weak until demand shows positive changes [3] - The dairy sector is projected to see a rebound in raw milk prices driven by a reduction in supply and increased demand [5] Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report indicates a global corn production increase of 24.92 million tons (approximately +1.97%) for the 2025/26 season, with a slight increase in global ending stocks [17] - China's corn ending stocks are projected to decrease by 0.31 percentage points to 55.50% [19] - Domestic corn prices are currently at a historical low, with a strong support expected for future price recovery [20] Soybeans - The USDA report forecasts a reduction in global soybean production by 1.29 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with ending stocks decreasing by 1.17 million tons [32] - The soybean market is sensitive to U.S. trade policies and weather, with a strong price support expected in Q4 2025 [34] Wheat - The USDA report predicts a decrease in global wheat production by 1.65 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with a slight reduction in the ending stocks-to-use ratio [49] - Overall supply remains sufficient, with prices expected to stabilize [3] Sugar - The market anticipates a good harvest for the 2025/26 season, but prices may remain weak due to increased imports and fluctuating oil prices [3] Cotton - The USDA report indicates a reduction in global cotton production forecasts, with a stable supply-demand balance expected [3] Beef - The USDA has lowered its forecast for U.S. beef production in 2026, leading to an expected increase in beef prices [4] - The domestic beef market is showing resilience, with prices expected to trend upwards in 2025 [4] Dairy - The USDA forecasts an increase in U.S. milk production and consumption for 2026, with a slight increase in ending stocks [5] - Domestic raw milk prices are expected to rebound in the second half of 2025 due to supply reductions and increased demand [5] Pork - The USDA projects a slight increase in U.S. pork consumption in 2026, with domestic production expected to remain stable [8] Poultry - The U.S. poultry market is expected to recover, with increased consumption predicted for 2026 [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Palm oil: With both supply and demand booming in the producing areas, a low - buying strategy is recommended [2]. - Soybean oil: Bullish factors have been fully priced in, and there may be a correction at high levels [2]. - Soybean meal: US soybeans have risen and then fallen, and the Dalian soybean meal futures will adjust and fluctuate [2]. - Soybean No.1: The futures price will fluctuate [2]. - Corn: It will move in a fluctuating manner [2]. - Sugar: It will consolidate within a range [2]. - Eggs: The price will adjust in a fluctuating way [2]. - Live pigs: Second - fattening has entered the market, but the spot performance is below expectations [2]. - Peanuts: The near - term contracts are stronger than the far - term ones [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daytime closing price was 9,294 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.38%, and the night - session closing price was 9,386 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.99%. Soybean oil's daytime closing price was 8,540 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.61%, and the night - session closing price was 8,512 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.33% [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: India's palm oil imports in July were 855,695 tons, down from 955,683 tons in June. The total vegetable oil imports in July were 1,579,041 tons, up from 1,549,825 tons in June. ICE Canadian canola futures closed down 0.8%, and CBOT soybean futures fell 1.5% due to profit - taking and export concerns. CONAB and ABIOVE both raised their forecasts for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production and exports [6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0 [9]. 2. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean No.1 2511's daytime closing price was 4,041 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.13%, and the night - session closing price was 4,049 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.54%. DCE soybean meal 2601's daytime closing price was 3,157 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.38%, and the night - session closing price was 3,140 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.76% [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 14, CBOT soybean futures fell from a six - week high due to profit - taking and export concerns. The US Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed a significant reduction in 2024/25 US soybean net sales [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No.1 is 0 [12]. 3. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2509 was 2,281 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase during the day and 2,279 yuan/ton with a 0.09% decline at night. The closing price of C2511 was 2,202 yuan/ton with a 0.05% decline during the day and 2,197 yuan/ton with a 0.23% decline at night [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port collection prices were stable, while prices in Northeast and North China were weak. Imported sorghum and barley had different price quotes for different shipment periods [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of corn is 0 [15]. 4. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 16.58 cents/pound with a 0.27 - cent decline. The mainstream spot price was 5,990 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase. The futures主力 price was 5,659 yuan/ton with a 2 - yuan increase [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon rainfall has weakened. China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June. CAOC made production, consumption, and import forecasts for the 24/25 and 25/26 domestic sugar seasons. ISO estimated a global sugar supply shortage of 547 million tons in the 24/25 season [16][17][18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of sugar is 0 [19]. 5. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2509 was 3,191 yuan/500 kilograms with a 3.01% decline, and the closing price of egg 2601 was 3,578 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.11% decline [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [20]. 6. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 13,930 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 13,550 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 15,190 yuan/ton. The prices of futures contracts such as live pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 all showed year - on - year declines [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of live pigs is - 1 [24]. - **Market Logic**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of group farms increased, while散户 were forced to hold back pigs. Demand growth was limited, and market pressure was high. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, and the industrial willingness to deliver is increasing. There is a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and the spread structure maintains an inverse spread [25]. 7. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of important spot peanuts such as Liaoning 308 common peanuts remained unchanged. The closing price of PK510 was 8,058 yuan/ton with a 1.03% decline, and the closing price of PK511 was 7,884 yuan/ton with a 1.40% decline [27]. - **Spot Market Focus**: New peanuts have been gradually coming onto the market in small quantities in some areas, with uneven quality and small supply. Most areas' prices are stable or slightly weak [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [31].

没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证畜牧养殖ETF联接A（012724），国泰中证畜牧养殖ETF联接C （012725）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 根据wind数据，养殖ETF（159865）实时盘中净流入3400万份，资金抢筹养殖资产。 山西证券表示，"猪周期"表面上是价格周期，本质上是产能周期。由于生猪行业生物资产的特殊性，从 母猪补栏到育肥猪出栏需要一定的时间周期。从历史实证看，产能回升不必然影响盈利周期的展开演 绎，关键看产能回升的速度。2019年以来这轮周期下行底部末端的整体财务状况是2006年以来压力最大 的。由于受到资金和负债的较大约束，因此弥补亏损和降低负债反而是当前行业进入盈利周期后的主基 调，而不是快速加产能。虽然生猪养殖行业从2024Q2开始进入盈利周期，但是从负债率的平均下降速 度来看，行业整体降负债仍 ...