智通财经获悉，一位船运大亨对油轮市场做出的一场堪称"一代人仅见"的豪赌，已让其手握压倒性话语 权——下个月可在美国装货的超大型油轮中，绝大多数都被其掌控。 在地中海航运公司(MSC)的支持下，韩国长锦商船(Sinokor)大举购入超大型原油运输船(VLCC)，对全球 可即时租用的油轮船队形成了前所未有的掌控力。竞争对手称这轮扩张为"颠覆性举动"，并推动油轮租 金创下多年新高。 本周，长锦商船的市场主导地位愈发凸显：作为美国主要石油出口区，墨西哥湾沿岸可租用的超大型油 轮几乎尽数落入其手中。航运分析平台Signal Ocean数据显示，未来30天内，所有能抵达美国海湾且目 前无货在运的船舶，全部由长锦商船控制。 Signal的预估与多家油轮市场参与者的判断一致，业内均表示，长锦商船在该区域可用运力中占据绝对 主导地位。 这一极端局面，是迄今为止最明确的信号：长锦商船的大举扩张正在颠覆油轮市场格局，并推高船东收 益。周四，从美国墨西哥湾前往中国的超大型油轮租金已突破1730万美元，创下2020年以来新高。市场 人士指出，手握大量可用运力，让长锦商船在租金定价上拥有更大话语权。 Fearnley's Shipbro ...

一位船运大亨对油轮市场做出的一场堪称"一代人仅见"的豪赌，已让其手握压倒性话语权——下个月可 在美国装货的超大型油轮中，绝大多数都被其掌控。 在地中海航运公司(MSC)的支持下，韩国长锦商船(Sinokor)大举购入超大型原油运输船(VLCC)，对全球 可即时租用的油轮船队形成了前所未有的掌控力。竞争对手称这轮扩张为"颠覆性举动"，并推动油轮租 金创下多年新高。 本周，长锦商船的市场主导地位愈发凸显：作为美国主要石油出口区，墨西哥湾沿岸可租用的超大型油 轮几乎尽数落入其手中。航运分析平台Signal Ocean数据显示，未来30天内，所有能抵达美国海湾且目 前无货在运的船舶，全部由长锦商船控制。 Signal的预估与多家油轮市场参与者的判断一致，业内均表示，长锦商船在该区域可用运力中占据绝对 主导地位。 这一极端局面，是迄今为止最明确的信号：长锦商船的大举扩张正在颠覆油轮市场格局，并推高船东收 益。周四，从美国墨西哥湾前往中国的超大型油轮租金已突破1730万美元，创下2020年以来新高。市场 人士指出，手握大量可用运力，让长锦商船在租金定价上拥有更大话语权。 此前，受石油产量激增、委内瑞拉原油重返国际流通、以 ...

20260225复盘 宏观： 1. 韩国国会:通过旨在提升股票估值的商业法修订案。 人工智能： 1. 卖方：Cpo调整系市场误读花旗预测，实际上调了scale up的预测数量。 2. 卖方：GTC可能发布的新芯片为LPU芯片，主要用于推理，采用PCB板为高多层板，M9的Q布方案。 3. 欧盟知名云计算 20260225复盘 宏观： 1. 韩国国会:通过旨在提升股票估值的商业法修订案。 人工智能： 3. 传闻日本测试机进入国内大厂有一定限制。 1. 卖方：Cpo调整系市场误读花旗预测，实际上调了scale up的预测数量。 2. 卖方：GTC可能发布的新芯片为LPU芯片，主要用于推理，采用PCB板为高多层板，M9的Q布方案。 3. 欧盟知名云计算服务提供商 Hetzner从4月1日起云服务器涨价37%。 半导体： 1. 外媒报道：中国计划将先进芯片产量从目前不足2万片提升至1-2年后的10万片，到2030年再增加50万片产能的 更高目标。 2. 卖方：存储扩产预期上修，从10-12万上修到15万以上。 设备大订单即将落地。 4. 卖方：国内头部的光模块企业都在寻求封装厂合作或者并购机会，CPO工艺从精密制造转向 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global market is currently in an observational phase with no clear consensus-driven trends. The short - term market is unlikely to have a unilateral trend, and the Fed's interest - rate cut narrative may be the next potential catalyst [2]. - The RMB exchange rate has shown strength. Short - term strategies for export and import enterprises are proposed, such as export enterprises locking in forward exchange settlement and import enterprises adopting a rolling purchase strategy [3][4]. - The stock index is expected to be bullish, while the bond market should focus on the Two Sessions' news [5][6]. - The container shipping market for the European route is expected to be weak in the short term, with a shift in trading logic [7][10]. - In the new energy market, the speculative sentiment of lithium carbonate is strong, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of weak supply and demand [12][15]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, aluminum and its related products are expected to fluctuate and consolidate, zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly, nickel - stainless steel is expected to fluctuate at a high level, tin is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and lead is expected to fluctuate and adjust [18][22][23][25][27][28]. - In the oil and fat feed market, oilseeds have strong expectations but weak reality, and oils are expected to improve [29][31]. - In the energy and oil and gas market, high - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure, low - sulfur fuel oil is strong, and asphalt prices may decline [34][35]. - In the precious metal market, platinum - palladium is expected to be in a long - term bull market, and gold - silver is strategically bullish in the short term [38][40][41][43]. - In the chemical market, pulp and offset paper are expected to fluctuate at a low level, pure benzene - styrene should pay attention to geopolitical trends, LPG is affected by geopolitics, PX - PTA is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, MEG - bottle chips are expected to fluctuate widely, methanol can consider a positive spread strategy, plastics PP are expected to fluctuate and decline, and rubber is expected to fluctuate in a range [45][47][50][52][56][59][61][64]. - In the black market, rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be weak, iron ore may recover seasonally, coking coal and coke need to focus on the resumption rhythm, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese should wait for the hedging opportunity [79][80][81][84]. - In the agricultural and soft commodity market, the price of live pigs may continue to decline, cotton is recommended to go long on dips, sugar's rebound space is limited, eggs may fluctuate at a low level in the short term and rise in the medium term, apples are supported by delivery contradictions, dates are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and logs can be observed [85][88][91][92][100][102][103]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The indirect negotiation between Iran and the US ended with "significant progress". The US initial jobless claims were 212,000, the Bank of Korea maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, and the Bank of Japan may consider raising interest rates [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore and off - shore RMB against the US dollar both broke through the 6.84 mark. Short - term strategies for export and import enterprises are provided [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to be bullish, with attention on the sustainability of trading volume [5]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is bearish, and attention should be paid to the news of the Two Sessions [5][6]. - **Container Shipping for European Route**: The market is weak, with a shift in trading logic from expecting price increases to facing price cuts in the off - season [7][10]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The speculative sentiment is strong, and upstream enterprises are recommended to hedge by shorting at high prices [12][14]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: They are in a situation of weak supply and demand. Short - term prices may break through the support level, and medium - term strategies are to go long at low prices [15][16]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and different trading strategies are proposed [18][21]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Different trading strategies are recommended according to different products [22][23]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback of tariff news [23][24]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: They are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to US tariff and Indonesian supply - side factors [25][26]. - **Tin**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the approval progress in Indonesia and the actual resumption progress in Myanmar [27]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and interval operations are recommended [28]. Oil and Fat Feed - **Oilseeds**: They have strong expectations but weak reality. After the market returns to fundamentals, shorting and reverse - spread opportunities can be considered [29][30]. - **Oils**: They are expected to improve, and long - position opportunities at low prices can be considered for palm oil [31][32]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure, and low - sulfur fuel oil is strong. The market shows a differentiated pattern [34]. - **Asphalt**: Prices may decline, especially when the demand after the Spring Festival is lower than expected [35]. Precious Metals - **Platinum - Palladium**: They are expected to be in a long - term bull market, but attention should be paid to various risk factors [38][40]. - **Gold - Silver**: They are strategically bullish in the short term, and long - position strategies on dips are recommended [41][43]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: They are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and interval trading strategies are recommended [45][46]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Attention should be paid to geopolitical trends, and long - position strategies on dips are recommended for styrene [47][49]. - **LPG**: It is mainly affected by geopolitics, and the short - term pricing is dominated by the Iran - US situation [50][51]. - **PX - PTA**: They are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and long - position strategies on dips and short - spread strategies for processing fees are recommended [52][55]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: They are expected to fluctuate widely, and short - selling is not recommended in the short term [56][58]. - **Methanol**: A positive spread strategy for the 5 - 9 contract can be considered, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors [59][60]. - **Plastic PP**: They are expected to fluctuate and decline, and attention should be paid to the demand after the resumption of work by downstream enterprises and the inventory removal speed [61][63]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate in a range, and different trading strategies are recommended for different types of rubber [64][71]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to buy at a low price, and the market price is expected to rise steadily [72]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Soda ash is expected to fluctuate with limited price movement, and glass prices are restricted by supply recovery and high inventory in the middle - stream [74][75]. - **Propylene**: It is affected by cost and supply - demand factors, and the market is still supported fundamentally [76][77]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to be weak, and although the market may hype up expectations near the Two Sessions, the fundamentals are still weak [79]. - **Iron Ore**: It may recover seasonally, and low - buying opportunities or positive - spread strategies can be considered at low valuations [79][80]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They need to focus on the resumption rhythm of mines and steel mills after the Spring Festival, and the price may face short - term supply - demand mismatch or downward pressure [81][83]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are affected by manganese ore news, and hedging opportunities after the emotional release can be waited for [84]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The price is expected to continue to decline, and a sell - call option strategy is proposed [85][87]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand and US trade policy [88][90]. - **Sugar**: The rebound space is limited, although there is some upward driving force [91]. - **Eggs**: They may fluctuate at a low level in the short term and rise in the medium term [92][93]. - **Apples**: The short - term demand is weak after the Spring Festival, but the delivery contradiction provides support [100][101]. - **Dates**: They are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the post - festival replenishment demand [102]. - **Logs**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and an observation strategy is recommended [103].

【中金交运】油运市场更新：VLCC现货运价保持20万美元/天，沙特Bahri租船 现货市场：昨晚最新的VLCC中东到中国TD3C航线的TCE上涨5%到20.6万美元/天 沙特国家石油运输公司Bahri下场租船（以下为彭博新闻报道，Gemini翻译）：沙特阿拉伯最大的石油航运公司 已初步租用至少五艘超级油轮。 沙特国家石油运输公司Bahri下场租船（以下为彭博新闻报道，Gemini翻译）：沙特阿拉伯最大的石油航运公司 已初步租用至少五艘超级油轮。 在油轮租用成本飙升之际，此举进一步推高了对这类巨型船舶的需求。 据 Tankers International的预订追踪系统显示，沙特国家航运公司（Bahri）已完成了其中两艘船舶的租用。 另外两艘出现在经纪人的成交报告中，而第五艘则得到了知情人士的证实。 根据成交信息，这五艘超大型原油运输船（VLCC）预计将在未来几周内把原油从该地区运往亚洲。 在油轮租用成本飙升之际，此举进一步推高了对这类巨型船舶的需求。 < 【中金交运】油运市场更新：VLCC现货运价保持20万美元/天，沙特Bahri租船 现货市场：昨晚最新的VLCC中东到中国TD3C航线的TCE上涨5%到20. ...

| | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/2/27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2604 | | 1236.0 | -3.33% | 337.5 | 28825 | | 36174 | 819 | | | EC2605 | | 1414.8 | -1.41% | 158.7 | 178 | | 3ેરે | 44 | | | EC2606 | | 1621.1 | -2.28% | -47.6 | 5854 | | 16649 | 287 | | | EC2607 | | 1812.0 | -0.92% | -238.5 | 41 | | 225 | 18 | | | EC2608 | | 1715.0 | -0.88% | -141.5 | 384 | | 1381 | 44 | | | EC2609 | | 1325.0 | 0.23% | 248.5 | ଚ | ...

日度报告——综合晨报 芝加哥联储行长：若通胀回落 美联储可能多 次降息 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-02-27 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 芝加哥联储行长：若通胀回落 美联储可能多次降息 伊朗外长称美伊谈判取得进展，市场风险偏好回落，美元指数 走低。 宏观策略（股指期货） A 股放量震荡整理 综 市场成交逐渐放量，更多流动性回归场内交易，这是我们判断 春季躁动仍未结束的原因之一。海外 AI 泡沫担忧逐渐深化，A 股或受映射。科技股短期回调压力增加，但中期仍看好。 巴西 2 月前两周出口糖和糖蜜 131.38 万吨 本榨季印度糖估产大幅下调 165 万吨至 2930 万吨，这将支撑印 度国内糖价，并限制其出口量，同时也有利于减轻本榨季全球 糖市供应过剩压力。 有色金属（碳酸锂） 芬兰启动欧洲首座商业化锂辉石矿山运营 短周期内仍以偏多思路看待。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 3205 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 稳地产政策可以理解为临时扰动，在其他利空出现之前，债市 难以持续下跌，部分时刻还会存在反弹动力。不过后续潜在的 风险因素仍然存在。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 巴西 ...

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