Economic Performance - Hong Kong's real GDP grew by 3.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, an increase from 2.5% in the previous quarter [1][4] - Seasonally adjusted, the real GDP rose by 1.9% quarter-on-quarter, revised from an earlier estimate of 2.0% [4] Trade and Exports - Overall merchandise exports increased significantly by 8.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, up from a 1.3% increase in the previous quarter [6] - Service output also expanded by 6.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, following a 6.5% increase in the previous quarter [6] Investment and Consumption - Total investment expenditure showed a moderate growth of 2.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, recovering from a slight decline of 0.7% in the previous quarter [7] - Private consumption expenditure continued to decline slightly by 1.1% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing changes in consumer behavior [7] Labor Market - The unemployment rate remained low at 3.2% in Q1 2025, slightly up from 3.1% in the previous quarter, while the underemployment rate held steady at 1.1% [8] Asset Market - The Hong Kong stock market experienced volatility, with the Hang Seng Index reaching a three-year high of 24,771 points in mid-March 2025, before closing at 23,120 points at the end of Q1, a 15.3% increase from the end of 2024 [10] - Residential property prices declined by 2% in Q1 2025, while overall residential rents increased slightly by 0.4% [11] Inflation - The basic composite consumer price index rose by 1.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, consistent with the previous quarter [12] - The overall composite consumer price index increased by 1.6% year-on-year, up from 1.4% in the previous quarter [12] Economic Forecast - The forecast for Hong Kong's real GDP growth for 2025 remains at 2% to 3%, consistent with earlier projections [15][17] - The inflation rate predictions for basic and overall consumer prices are maintained at 1.5% and 1.8%, respectively [15][17]

Core Insights - The global economy is showing signs of recovery in Q1 2025, with a strong manufacturing PMI above 50, and China's foreign trade performance exceeded market expectations despite high tariffs from the US [1][7] - China's total export value in Q1 2025 reached approximately $853.7 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, with significant contributions from private enterprises [2][3] Trade Performance - The total import and export value of Chinese enterprises in Q1 2025 was about $1.4 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, with private enterprises accounting for 57% of this total [2][3] - The trade surplus in Q1 2025 surged by 48.6% to $273 billion, with private enterprises contributing 105.9% to this surplus [2][3] Private Enterprises Contribution - Private enterprises accounted for 64.8% of total exports in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, highlighting their role as the main contributors to foreign trade growth [2][3][4] - The number of private enterprises engaged in import and export activities reached a historical high of 455,000, representing 86.1% of all trading enterprises [1][2] Export Product Structure - In Q1 2025, mechanical and electrical products constituted over 60% of total exports, with integrated circuits and high-tech products showing significant growth [4] - Notably, energy exports saw a substantial decline, with refined oil exports down by 23.5% and coal exports down by 25.9% to 45.3% [4] Import Trends - Total imports in Q1 2025 decreased by 7% to $580.7 billion, with state-owned enterprises experiencing the largest decline at 20.5% [4][5] - Private enterprises showed a slight increase in imports by 1.8%, indicating a shift in the import landscape [4] Industrial and Trade Data Discrepancy - There is a growing disparity between industrial output and foreign trade data, with the ratio of industrial export delivery value to total foreign trade exports declining from 68.5% in 2020 to 59.2% in Q1 2025 [5][6] - The share of exports to the US has also decreased, indicating potential challenges in maintaining trade relationships [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - China's total import and export value for the first four months of 2025 reached 14.14 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, with exports increasing by 7.5% and imports decreasing by 4.2% [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - In April, China's total import and export value was 3.84 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6%, with exports at 2.27 trillion yuan (up 9.3%) and imports at 1.57 trillion yuan (up 0.8%) [2] - For the first four months, general trade and processing trade saw growth, with general trade imports and exports at 9.05 trillion yuan (up 0.6%) and processing trade at 2.54 trillion yuan (up 6.6%) [3] - The ASEAN region became China's largest trading partner, with trade totaling 2.38 trillion yuan (up 9.2%), while trade with the EU and the US showed mixed results [4] Group 2: Trade Partners - Trade with ASEAN accounted for 16.8% of China's total foreign trade, while trade with the EU and the US represented 12.6% and 10.2%, respectively [4] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative reached 7.25 trillion yuan, growing by 3.9% [4] Group 3: Enterprise Performance - Private enterprises accounted for 56.9% of total foreign trade, with imports and exports totaling 8.05 trillion yuan (up 6.8%) [5] - Foreign-invested enterprises contributed 29% to total trade, while state-owned enterprises saw a decline in trade volume [5] Group 4: Product Categories - Mechanical and electrical products made up over 60% of exports, with significant growth in automatic data processing equipment, integrated circuits, and automobiles [6] - High-tech products also performed well, with imports and exports totaling 1.52 trillion yuan, growing by 7.4% [9] Group 5: Commodity Prices - Major commodity import prices, including iron ore, crude oil, and coal, saw declines, while the import value of mechanical and electrical products increased [7][8]