Core Insights - The article highlights the historical significance of Xuan paper and its revival through the efforts of the New Fourth Army during the Second Sino-Japanese War, emphasizing the cultural heritage and economic potential of the Xuan paper industry in modern times [1][2][3] Group 1: Historical Context - In 1938, the New Fourth Army established its headquarters in Jingxian, Anhui, where they initiated efforts to protect the Xuan paper industry, which was severely impacted by war and displacement [1] - The establishment of the "Xuan Paper Production Cooperative" by the New Fourth Army aimed to preserve traditional paper-making techniques and ensure a stable supply of paper for propaganda, leading to the publication of the influential "Kangdi Bao" [1] Group 2: Cultural Heritage and Modern Revival - Xuan paper was recognized as a national intangible cultural heritage in 2006, and Jingxian has since integrated the Xuan paper industry with tourism and cultural creativity, marking a significant transformation from traditional paper selling to cultural experiences [2] - The Xuan Paper Town has become a cultural hub, attracting 410,000 visitors in 2024, a 64% increase year-on-year, and creating approximately 850 jobs across related industries [2] Group 3: Community Engagement and Future Prospects - Jingxian is actively promoting the integration of the Xuan paper industry with red tourism and cultural festivals, creating a vibrant environment for both heritage preservation and economic development [3] - Younger generations are increasingly involved in preserving Xuan paper traditions, ensuring the continuation of its cultural narrative and craftsmanship [3]

行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 18 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李金（甲醇） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com ...

Core Viewpoint - Chenming Paper Industry is facing a severe financial crisis, with a projected net loss of 3.5 to 4 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a more than 120-fold decline in profit year-on-year, setting a record for single-period losses in China's paper industry [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's main production bases are under maintenance, leading to a significant drop in production and sales, which has severely impacted revenue and profit [1] - The company has faced 364 lawsuits since January 23, 2025, due to overdue debts and contract disputes, with a total amount involved of approximately 458.27 million yuan, accounting for 40.11% of the latest audited net assets [1] - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total liabilities reached 47.74 billion yuan, with current liabilities making up 85.59% (40.86 billion yuan), and short-term loans amounting to 23.64 billion yuan, while cash reserves are only 2.28 billion yuan, most of which are restricted [1] Group 2: Strategic Missteps - The company aggressively expanded production capacity by 7 million tons from 2019 to 2022, with 75% concentrated in oversupplied areas, leading to a gross margin drop to -12.91% for its white card paper business when industry operating rates fell below 70% in 2024 [2] - The financing leasing business has accumulated 8.899 billion yuan in receivables with a bad debt rate of 51.7%, resulting in a loss of 1.468 billion yuan [2] - The company's asset-liability ratio has consistently exceeded 70%, reaching 79.79% in 2024, significantly higher than the industry average, with family management reducing risk awareness [2] Group 3: Rescue Efforts - The company is struggling to restart production, with only 23% overall operating rate, while shifting focus to high-margin specialty paper production and aiming to reduce energy consumption by 15% [3] - A provincial debt committee has been established to coordinate debt restructuring, with 42 billion yuan in loans extended, but new loans of 2.31 billion yuan are stalled due to bank approval issues [3] - The company is dissolving its financial company and exiting the financing leasing business, focusing on core operations of pulp and paper integration as a survival strategy [3] Group 4: Future Paths - There is a potential for industry recovery, with a 5% increase in cultural paper prices driven by the back-to-school season, but the oversupply issue remains unresolved [4] - The company faces a countdown to delisting, as negative audit opinions on internal controls could trigger delisting procedures if not rectified in the 2025 financial report [4] - Strategic restructuring options include introducing state-owned enterprise investors, local government assistance, and debt-to-equity swaps, with the possibility of bankruptcy reorganization if necessary [4] Group 5: Industry Insights - The collapse of Chenming Paper highlights the challenges of traditional industrial transformation, where misinterpreting industry concentration as a signal for scale competition led to "scale diseconomies" [5] - The failure of the "financial support manufacturing" model is evident, as the financing leasing business resulted in significant impairments during economic downturns [6] - In cyclical industries, cash reserves are more valuable than profit scale, and neglecting cash flow during prosperous times can lead to liquidity crises in downturns [6]

| 乖 亦安期货 | | --- | 纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/18 SP主力合约收盘价： 5264.00 | 日期 | 2025/07/17 | 2025/07/16 | 2025/07/15 | 2025/07/14 | 2025/07/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5264.00 | 5242.00 | 5262.00 | 5244.00 | 5234.00 | | 折美元价 | 640.21 | 637.68 | 640.52 | 638.66 | 637.28 | | 距上一日涨跌 | 0.41969% | -0.38008% | 0.34325% | 0.19106% | 0.73133% | | 山东银星基差 | 671 | 693 | 688 | 706 | 716 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 726 | 748 | 743 | 761 | 771 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | -- ...

Core Insights - The opening of the China-Laos Railway has significantly increased tourist traffic and economic opportunities in Pu'er, with daily visitor numbers reaching thousands during peak periods [1] - Pu'er has seen a substantial rise in both passenger and cargo transport volumes since the railway's operation, with over 15.47 million passengers and 3.68 million tons of goods transported by the end of 2024 [1][2] - The coffee industry in Pu'er is experiencing rapid growth, with local leaders investing in full-chain coffee production and tourism integration [1][2] Industry Developments - The logistics costs for local businesses have decreased significantly due to the railway, with fertilizer transportation costs dropping by at least 400 yuan per ton [2] - The tourism sector in Pu'er has expanded, with occupancy rates in local accommodations reaching 80-90% during peak seasons, and revenue from tourism projected to exceed 300,000 yuan in 2024 [2][3] - Traditional industries, such as paper production, have benefited from reduced transportation costs, saving approximately 16 million yuan annually due to the railway's operational efficiencies [2] Economic Growth - Coffee exports from Pu'er are projected to grow by 374.5% year-on-year in 2024, leading the province in export volume [3] - Tourism revenue in Pu'er has doubled, increasing from over 25.4 billion yuan to 62.9 billion yuan [3] - The region has attracted notable companies and projects, including a complete industrial chain for sodium-ion battery materials, indicating a diversification of the local economy [3]

以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加拿大 | 金狮 | CFR | 780 | 6450 | 51.55 | | | 雄狮 | CFR | 730 | 5650 | -317.78 | | 智利 | 银星 | CFR信用证 90天 | 720 | 5935 | 23.35 | 纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/17 SP主力合约收盘价： 5242.00 | 日期 | 2025/07/16 | 2025/07/15 | 2025/07/14 | 2025/07/11 | 2025/07/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5242.00 | 5262.00 | 5244.00 | 5234.00 | 5196.00 | | 折美元价 | 637.68 | 640.52 | 638.66 | 637.28 | 632.01 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -0.38008% | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Guangdong Rural Revitalization Foundation has been recognized for its outstanding contributions to ecological construction in Guangdong, promoting a "Green Guangdong" initiative through community engagement and corporate partnerships [2][3][4]. Group 1: Foundation's Achievements - The foundation has collaborated with 385 enterprises and over 37,000 participants in various "Green Guangdong" activities, raising more than 120 million yuan in donations and planting over 1 million trees across 15 cities [5][6][7]. - The foundation has launched a provincial public service platform to enhance public participation in ecological construction, with 8 projects attracting donations totaling approximately 35.4 million yuan and involving 42,000 participants [17][18]. Group 2: Corporate Involvement - The foundation has mobilized corporate resources, raising approximately 69.4 million yuan from companies like Guangdong Energy Group and others to implement "Green Guangdong" support projects, improving the greening levels of over 100 villages [36][38]. - Notable projects include the creation of green landscape belts and eco-friendly recreational areas, which have enhanced local tourism and increased residents' incomes [40][41]. Group 3: Seedling and Resource Management - The foundation is establishing high-standard seedling reserves with a target of raising 20 million yuan by the end of 2023, aiming to cultivate 997,000 quality seedlings of 53 varieties for ecological projects [55][56][58]. - The innovative model of "government-led, public platform, and corporate participation" has been adopted for seedling reserve construction, ensuring a sustainable supply of quality seedlings for long-term greening efforts [61][63]. Group 4: Future Directions - The foundation aims to continue its commitment to public welfare and national strategies, exploring more pathways for social participation in ecological construction, ensuring that the "Green Guangdong" initiative remains a collective effort [69][70].

华尔街见闻获悉，恒安集团近日与字节跳动旗下飞书签约，开启集团数字化高效协作新阶段。恒安集团 总裁许清流强调，"与飞书的合作，是恒安集团主动拥抱变革、加速数字化转型的关键一步。"（全天候 科技） ...

引子： 最近一则新闻在金融圈炸开了锅——特朗普公开施压美联储主席鲍威尔辞职，华尔街却集体站出来捍卫美联储的独立性。这看似是一场政治博弈，实则暗藏 市场运行的深层逻辑。作为一个浸淫市场多年的量化投资者，我深知新闻背后往往隐藏着更重要的信息差。今天，就让我们拨开迷雾，看看这场风波背后的 市场真相。 一、政治博弈下的市场暗流 美国总统特朗普近日加强了对美联储主席鲍威尔的批评力度，甚至公开表示希望后者"主动辞职"。这一表态逆转了他此前"无意解雇鲍威尔"的立场，引发市 场对美联储独立性的担忧。华尔街主要金融机构高管纷纷表态支持美联储独立运作，美国银行CEO莫伊尼汉、高盛CEO所罗门、摩根大通CEO戴蒙等重量级 人物都发表了维护美联储独立性的言论。 表面上看，这是一场博弈。但作为一个数据派投资者，我更关注的是这背后反映出的市场运行规律。在A股市场摸爬滚打这些年，我深刻体会到：新闻往往 是滞后的，真正影响市场的力量早已在数据中显现。 二、新闻的滞后性与市场的提前量 俗话说"买传闻，卖新闻"，这句话道出了A股市场独有的"抢跑特性"。国外股票市场是根据已知信息做交易判断，新的利好会直接反映在股价上；而我们的 A股市场是打提前量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Most of the industries in the report are rated as "oscillating", with the exception of the log industry which is rated as "oscillating weakly", and the sugar industry which is expected to "oscillate weakly" in the long - term and "oscillate" in the short - term [7][8][9][10][12][14][16][17][18]. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural and related industries, finding that most industries are currently in an oscillating state. Some industries face supply - demand imbalances, such as the oversupply in the hog industry; others are affected by factors like weather, policies, and trade relations, such as the possible weather - related speculation in natural rubber and the impact of trade agreements on protein meal [1][7][8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Oscillating and differentiating, with soybean and rapeseed oils oscillating strongly yesterday. - **Logic**: Good growth of US soybeans, a decrease in US soybean oil inventory, an increase in the expected demand for soybean oil in biodiesel, and the Brazilian biodiesel blending ratio increase. However, there is also pressure from the increase in palm oil production and the high inventory of domestic rapeseed oil [7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Due to the signing of the Sino - Australian trade memorandum of understanding, the double - meal oscillated and slightly declined. - **Logic**: Abroad, the growth of US soybeans is smooth, but the export prospects are worrying; Brazil's exports are still high. Domestically, the signing of the Sino - Australian memorandum implies new Australian seed imports, with supply pressure leading to weak spot prices, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be strong in the long - term [8]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Spot transactions are light, and futures and spot prices oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: Futures prices rebounded slightly during the day and then fell back. On the spot side, supply at ports and deep - processing plants decreased, and there were price adjustments at some deep - processing plants. Deep - processing production and consumption data changed slightly, and there is a risk of supply shortage before the new grain is listed in large quantities [9][10]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Upstream slaughtering puts pressure on hog prices. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large hogs are being slaughtered at an accelerated pace, but the average weight has bottomed out and rebounded, and farmers are still reluctant to sell standard hogs. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets has been increasing, and there is room for an increase in hog slaughter in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the current production capacity is still high. The demand for pork has increased week - on - week, and the weight - reduction trend is blocked. In the short - term, the market has positive sentiment, but in the medium - and long - term, there is supply pressure in the third quarter [1][10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: There may be weather - related speculation, but the expected increase is limited. - **Logic**: The rubber price rose rapidly at the end of trading yesterday, possibly due to weather - related speculation about a typhoon landing in Hainan Island or external capital. The trading logic follows the macro - sentiment, and the fundamentals are currently stable. The supply is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable [12][13]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price rebounded after a decline. - **Logic**: The futures price followed the commodity adjustment and then rebounded due to the impact of natural rubber. The upward driving force is not obvious, but there is support from the macro - environment and the improvement in butadiene trading. It is expected to oscillate within a range [14]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices increased with increased positions, breaking through the 14,000 - yuan mark. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, the cotton market is loose, and the new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to increase in production. The demand is in the off - season, but the current commercial inventory is low. Yesterday, the futures price increased with increased positions, but there are multiple factors restricting further increases, and there is a risk of decline when new cotton is listed in large quantities [14]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices fluctuated within a narrow range. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, sugar prices are under downward pressure due to the expected supply surplus in the 25/26 sugar - making season. In the short - term, the decline in Brazilian sugar production and high domestic sales rates support sugar prices, but the increase in Brazilian production and exports and domestic imports will increase supply pressure [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The trend is dominated by the macro - environment, with a stalemate - type fluctuation. - **Logic**: The futures price fluctuated horizontally, and the supply - demand relationship is in a stalemate. The upward driving force comes from the macro - environment, but there is pressure at 5200 - 5300 yuan. In the short - term, there is a slight rebound space, and in the medium - term, there may be a phased increase, but the height is limited [17]. 3.10 Logs - **View**: There are few fundamental contradictions, and the short - term futures price oscillates. - **Logic**: Spot prices are weak due to the impact of delivery products, and the cost of importers has increased. Although it is the off - season, the overall demand is stable, and the market is in the bottom - building stage. There is no clear driving force for upward or downward movement in the short - term [18][19].