Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.37% with a trading volume of 1,231.67 million shares and a transaction amount of 19,435.79 billion yuan, representing a 3.06% increase compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The top-performing industries included: - **Electric Power Equipment**: Increased by 2.52% with a transaction amount of 2,240.46 billion yuan, up 5.24% from the previous day, led by Zhejiang Hengwei with a rise of 19.99% [1] - **Automobile**: Increased by 1.90% with a transaction amount of 1,277.96 billion yuan, up 0.71%, led by Haon Automotive with a rise of 14.21% [1] - **Coal**: Increased by 1.79% with a transaction amount of 126.73 billion yuan, up 21.96%, led by Lu'an Environmental Energy with a rise of 7.13% [1] - The worst-performing industries included: - **Petroleum and Petrochemicals**: Decreased by 1.12% with a transaction amount of 83.90 billion yuan, up 5.09%, led by *ST Xinchao with a decline of 2.58% [2] - **Retail Trade**: Decreased by 0.85% with a transaction amount of 313.00 billion yuan, up 0.92%, led by Sanjiang Shopping with a decline of 6.63% [2] - **Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery**: Decreased by 0.81% with a transaction amount of 172.79 billion yuan, down 15.67%, led by Bangji Technology with a decline of 7.64% [2]

Group 1: Cosmetics Industry - The cosmetics sector is experiencing double-digit growth online, with a focus on promotional events driving sales [1][2] - In August, the combined sales of beauty products on Tmall and Douyin grew by 19.0% year-on-year, with Douyin's GMV exceeding 20 billion yuan, marking a 19.56% increase [2] - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with notable performances from brands like Han Shu and Pechoin, which have diversified product offerings [2][3] - The report recommends selecting companies with product and channel innovations, highlighting brands such as Ru Yuchen, Shangmei, and Mao Ge Ping for their growth potential [1] Group 2: Key Companies - Ru Yuchen's sales on Tmall and Douyin grew over 200% year-on-year in August, with significant increases in self-broadcasting sales [3] - Shangmei's channel and product structure are continuously optimizing, with a self-broadcasting ratio of over 72% in August [3] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Meili Tianyuan and Betaini, which are expected to reach a turning point in performance [1] Group 3: Six Fortune Group - Six Fortune Group is projected to achieve revenues of 15.318 billion, 17.418 billion, and 19.752 billion HKD for the fiscal years 2026-2028, with growth rates of 14.82%, 13.71%, and 13.40% respectively [6] - The company has a strong product design capability and is expanding its overseas presence, with plans to open 50 new stores in three years [7] - The acquisition of Kam Tin has enhanced the brand matrix and is expected to drive growth in the light luxury market [7] Group 4: Tunnel Shares - Tunnel Shares reported a 7.4% decrease in net profit for the first half of 2025, but a 15.9% increase in net profit for Q2 [8] - The company’s revenue for H1 2025 was 22.02 billion yuan, down 21.5% year-on-year, with a significant drop in construction services [9] - The report maintains a target price of 8.64 yuan for Tunnel Shares, reflecting a 9x PE ratio for 2025 [8][9]

Macro Strategy - Trump's intervention in the independence of the Federal Reserve is expected to occur through three main avenues: 1) appointing a Fed chair who is loyal to him, anticipated to be nominated in November and take office in May next year; 2) restructuring the Fed Board to eliminate dissenting members and install loyalists; 3) influencing the appointment of regional Fed presidents whose terms expire in February [1][20]. - With the new Fed chair's appointment, it is projected that the Fed will have a more significant influence on monetary policy, potentially leading to a greater than expected rate cut in 2026, with policy rates possibly falling below the neutral level of 3% [1][20]. Economic Data Analysis - In August, both domestic and external demand weakened, with supply adjustments lagging behind demand, reinforcing a short-term scenario of strong supply and weak demand. Specifically, investment has shown negative growth for two consecutive months, and retail sales growth has been declining since May [2][21]. - The divergence between supply and demand is expected to yield three outcomes: 1) GDP growth will align more closely with supply data, with Q3 GDP growth projected around 5%; 2) the current supply exceeding demand may increase price pressures, necessitating stronger policy support for price recovery; 3) if demand does not strengthen, supply will likely follow suit, leading to greater pressure on Q4 GDP compared to Q3 [2][21]. Industry Insights - The gaming industry in H1 2025 has shown strong performance, driven by innovative categories such as "micro-horror search and escape" and "overseas SLG," which have positively impacted the performance and valuation of corresponding companies [15]. - In the shipbuilding sector, new ship price indices remain high, and the merger of major shipbuilding companies is nearing completion, suggesting a favorable outlook for companies like China Shipbuilding [15]. - The environmental sector is seeing advancements in pricing mechanisms for renewable energy, particularly in waste-to-energy projects, which could enhance the economic viability of green electricity supply [17][18].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose slightly by 0.07%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.39%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index saw a minor rise of 0.10% with a market turnover of HKD 160.18 billion [1] - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, approximately 9 months ago, has historically led to better performance in growth styles and small-cap stocks in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, while dividend styles lagged [1] - The hardware, semiconductor, and environmental protection sectors in Hong Kong stocks have shown significant gains over the past 20 weeks [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101) provides investors with a convenient tool to invest in the Hong Kong tech sector, closely tracking the National Index of Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology [2] - The ETF selects 30 large-cap, high R&D investment, and fast-growing tech leading companies, making it one of the most focused products in its category, with the top ten constituents accounting for 77% [2] - Major constituents include Xiaomi, Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, BYD, SMIC, and BeiGene, making it a quality tool for investors to gain exposure to leading Chinese tech companies [2]

Market Overview - On September 15, the Hong Kong stock market experienced narrow fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 58 points or 0.2% to close at 26,446 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.9% to 6,043 points. The market turnover decreased to over HKD 290.2 billion, with a net inflow of HKD 14.47 billion from the Stock Connect, continuing to support the market [1] - Economic data from China in August indicated a slowdown in growth momentum, with moderate consumption growth, significant investment slowdown, and ongoing downward pressure in the real estate sector. Notably, the credit pulse index in August declined for the first time in nine months, which may exert pressure on the Hong Kong stock market [1] Macroeconomic Dynamics - In August, China's retail sales growth slowed significantly, with a year-on-year increase of only 3.4%, the lowest since November of the previous year. Fixed asset investment growth from January to August was only 0.5%, with real estate investment declining by 12.9% [2] - The new housing transaction volume in major cities showed a mixed performance, with a year-on-year decline of 6.3% in the last week, contrasting with a rise in first-tier cities [2] Industry Dynamics - The Hong Kong automotive sector saw a rebound after a period of stagnation, with companies like BYD and NIO experiencing stock price increases. NIO is set to launch its new E8 model on September 20 [4] - The healthcare index in Hong Kong rose by 0.2%, driven by the CXO sector. Recent government meetings emphasized the promotion of biomedical technology innovation and the upgrading of the biopharmaceutical industry [4] Pharmaceutical Sector Insights - The innovative drug and CXO sectors are expected to maintain robust growth, with leading companies in these areas showing strong performance in the first half of 2025. The demand for innovative drugs in oncology, metabolism, and autoimmune diseases is anticipated to grow steadily [6][7] - Traditional medical service sectors are expected to recover gradually, although the impact of medical insurance cost control remains a concern. Government policies aimed at alleviating financial issues for medical institutions are expected to improve the operating environment over time [8] Key Company Recommendations - China Biologic Products (1177 HK) reported a 10.7% increase in revenue to RMB 17.57 billion in the first half of 2025, with a net profit increase of 12.3% to RMB 3.39 billion. The company is expected to achieve double-digit growth in product sales revenue [10] - Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) saw a 14.3% increase in revenue to RMB 7.43 billion, with a net profit increase of 15.0% to RMB 3.14 billion, driven by strong performance in its oncology products [10] - WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) reported a 20.6% increase in revenue to RMB 20.80 billion, with a net profit increase of 95.5% to RMB 8.29 billion, reflecting strong core business performance [11] Environmental Sector Insights - Gree Power (1330 HK) reported a 24.5% increase in net profit to RMB 380 million in the first half of 2025, driven by increased waste processing and electricity generation [12] - The company has rationally expanded its capacity, with waste processing capacity growing from 33,710 tons/day in FY21 to 40,310 tons/day in FY24, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 6.1% [13]

Group 1 - The transformation of barren mountains into lush greenery in Ruozhou is highlighted, showcasing significant ecological restoration efforts [2][3][8] - The investment in the Yunyao Village's ecological environment and unique cultural heritage has attracted projects like the Yunyao Wonder Homestay Resort, creating local job opportunities [3] - The coal industry in Ruozhou, once marked by pollution from coal gangue, is now utilizing closed-loop systems to convert waste into high-quality bricks, significantly reducing environmental impact [5][6] Group 2 - The North Ru River has undergone comprehensive ecological restoration, with the establishment of parks and green spaces, improving the local ecosystem and providing habitats for wildlife [7][8] - The successful creation of a provincial-level beautiful river and lake in the North Ru River area reflects the effectiveness of the ecological restoration initiatives [8]

Core Viewpoint - Major engineering projects play a strategic, leading, and supporting role in promoting the construction of a beautiful China and comprehensively improving ecological environment quality [1] Policy Support - A series of policies have been introduced to support major engineering projects in the ecological environment sector, including the issuance of ultra-long-term special bonds and local government special bonds to fund "two heavy" projects and "two new" policies [1][2] - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference proposed increasing the issuance of ultra-long-term special bonds and local government special bonds to expand funding channels [1] Financing Tools - Various financing tools such as ultra-long-term special bonds, local government special bonds, central and provincial budget funds, and green finance should be systematically researched and utilized to support ecological projects [2][3] - Emphasis on constructing a project reserve library that aligns national strategies with provincial needs, focusing on major projects that address current ecological issues [3] Project Selection and Packaging - Local government special bonds should prioritize projects with balanced income and expenditure, focusing on urban sewage resource utilization and solid waste disposal [4] - Projects should be selected based on ecological benefits and the ability to cover bond principal and interest, with a focus on addressing urgent public concerns [4] Central and Provincial Budget Funds - Central and provincial budget funds should target public welfare areas, such as rural black and odorous water treatment and historical mine restoration, while ensuring strict fund supervision [5] - A negative list for fund usage should be established, and performance evaluations should be linked to future budget arrangements [5] Green Finance - Green finance should support key industries and low-carbon transitions, with targeted financial products developed for traditional enterprises and ecological projects [6] - Encouragement for clean energy projects to apply for green credit and issue green bonds for project development [6] Funding Strategy - A combination of funding sources should be utilized, including ultra-long-term special bonds, local government special bonds, and green finance, to effectively support various project types [7][8][9] - Projects should be categorized based on their nature, with specific funding strategies tailored to each category, such as using special bonds for revenue-generating projects and budget funds for purely public welfare projects [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The company's stock price is influenced by various factors including macroeconomic environment, industry cycle fluctuations, market sentiment and trends, and company performance [1] Group 1 - The company emphasizes the importance of investor interests and strives to create higher value for investors [1] - The company will continue to monitor market dynamics and actively communicate its value through investor engagement activities [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Longking Environmental [2] Core Views - The report highlights the high profitability potential of the Congo (DRC) hydropower projects, specifically the Kailangeng hydropower station and the Mami Cuo energy station [5] - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 11.64 billion, 14.25 billion, and 16.66 billion respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 14.33x, 11.70x, and 10.01x [5] Financial Forecast Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: 10,019.42 million - 2025E: 11,807.95 million (17.85% growth) - 2026E: 13,221.30 million (11.97% growth) - 2027E: 14,701.36 million (11.19% growth) [6] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: 830.40 million - 2025E: 1,163.96 million (40.17% growth) - 2026E: 1,425.03 million (22.43% growth) - 2027E: 1,666.14 million (16.92% growth) [6] - **Gross Margin**: - Expected to remain stable around 25% from 2024 to 2027, with slight increases [6] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 0.65 - 2025E: 0.92 - 2026E: 1.12 - 2027E: 1.31 [6] - **Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio**: - 2024A: 20.08 - 2025E: 14.33 - 2026E: 11.70 - 2027E: 10.01 [6] Project Highlights - **Kailangeng Hydropower Project**: - Investment of approximately 3.99 billion USD (28.42 billion RMB) - Expected annual generation of 714 million kWh with a high utilization rate of 5,100 hours [5] - Power purchase agreements ensure 90% of electricity is sold to Zijin Mining at a competitive rate of approximately 0.16 USD/kWh [5] - **Mami Cuo Energy Station**: - Expected to begin operations in Q2 2026 with a competitive settlement price of 0.7 RMB/kWh - The project aims to support lithium-boron mining operations in a remote area [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Longking Environmental [2] Core Views - The report highlights the high profitability of the Congo (DRC) hydropower projects, specifically the Kailangeng hydropower station and the Mami Cuo energy station, which are expected to significantly contribute to the company's profits [5][6] - The company is positioned to benefit from its strategic investments in clean energy and environmental protection, with a strong pipeline of projects and contracts [5][6] Financial Forecast Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenues for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 10,019.42 million, 11,807.95 million, 13,221.30 million, and 14,701.36 million respectively, with a revenue growth rate of -8.69% in 2024, followed by 17.85%, 11.97%, and 11.19% in the subsequent years [6] - **Net Profit Forecast**: Expected net profits for the same years are 830.40 million, 1,163.96 million, 1,425.03 million, and 1,666.14 million, with profit growth rates of 63.15%, 40.17%, 22.43%, and 16.92% respectively [6] - **Key Ratios**: The projected PE ratios for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 20.08, 14.33, 11.70, and 10.01 respectively, indicating a decreasing trend in valuation multiples as earnings grow [6][7] Project Highlights - **Kailangeng Hydropower Project**: The project has a total investment of approximately 3.99 billion USD, with an expected annual generation of 714 million kWh and a high utilization rate of 5,100 hours per year. The electricity price for mining operations is around 0.16 USD/kWh [5] - **Mami Cuo Energy Station**: This project is expected to have a competitive electricity settlement price of 0.7 RMB/kWh and is projected to generate an average annual output of 761 million kWh [5] Strategic Positioning - The company is focusing on a dual strategy of environmental protection and new energy, with significant contracts in hand and a strong market position in the environmental sector [5][6] - The integration of energy production, storage, and consumption in remote areas is expected to enhance the stability and profitability of the company's projects [5]