Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Core Views - Sugar: Sugarcane planting area has increased due to economic benefits, policy support, and enterprise incentives, but early drought in Guangxi has limited sugar production growth. Sugar consumption is expected to remain stable or increase slightly, with a stable supply - demand gap and an expected import volume of 5 million tons. Short - term strategy is to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: Xinjiang's stable cotton target price subsidy policy has maintained farmers' planting enthusiasm, increasing the planting area slightly, while the area in inland regions has decreased. With good climate conditions during sowing and emergence, the expected yield per hectare is 2,172 kg (144.8 kg per mu), the same as last year. The total production is expected to reach 6.25 million tons, a 1.4% increase. Affected by US tariffs, cotton consumption is expected to be weak, but there is still uncertainty. The expected consumption for the new year is 7.4 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from last year, and the import volume is adjusted down to 1.4 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons. Short - term strategy is to wait and see [1]. Data Summary 1. Price and Spread Data - **External Quotes**: On June 4 - 5, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 0.78% from $16.75 to $16.62, and the price of US cotton increased by 0.42% from $65.05 to $65.32 [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Sugar spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged at 6,090 and 5,910 respectively; the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.01% from 3,281 to 3,280, and the cotton price in Xinjiang remained at 14,450 [3]. - **Spreads**: The spreads of SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, and SR09 - 01 increased by 11.11%, 6.88%, and 5.65% respectively; the spread of CF01 - 05 decreased by 33.33%, and the spread of CF05 - 09 increased by 12.50%, while the spread of CF09 - 01 remained unchanged [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of sugar 01, 05, and 09 increased by 8.74%, 9.01%, and 11.11% respectively; the basis of cotton 01, 05, and 09 increased by 1.55%, 1.13%, and 1.49% respectively [3]. 2. Import and Profit Data - **Import Prices**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained at 78.25 on June 4 - 5, 2025 [3]. - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit remained at 1,609 on June 4 - 5, 2025 [3]. 3. Option and Volatility Data - **Options**: For options SR509C5700 and SR509P5700, the implied volatility is 0.0781 and 0.0785 respectively, with SR509 as the futures underlying and a historical volatility of 9.04; for options CF509C13200 and CF509P13200, the implied volatility is 0.0964 and 0.0943 respectively, with CF509 as the futures underlying and a historical volatility of 12.42 [3]. 4. Warehouse Receipt Data - On June 4 - 5, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.34% from 30,300 to 29,893, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.35% from 10,977 to 10,939 [3]. Company Information - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., located at the 19th - 20th floors of Tianren Building, Qianjiang Century City, Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou, with a postal code of 311200. It is a large - scale domestic futures company, wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - power member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, and a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange [1][9].

期货盯盘神器专属文章 亚洲糖周报：泰国精炼糖市场价格有何波动？ 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangxi is the largest sugar production area in China, producing approximately 6 million tons annually, accounting for over 60% of the national output. The local government aims to enhance the integration of futures and spot markets to promote the sugar industry and regional economic development [1] Group 1: Market Background - In 2024, domestic sugar prices fluctuated, with the average sales price for sugar enterprises dropping from 6,561 yuan/ton to 6,075 yuan/ton. The total sugar production for the 2024/2025 season is expected to be 11.15 million tons, an increase of about 1.19 million tons from the previous season [2] - The sugar market is influenced by various factors, including low carryover stocks and tight processing sugar sources, leading to strong spot prices initially. However, international market changes have introduced uncertainties, with expectations of increased domestic sugar imports and production, posing risks to future sugar prices [2] Group 2: Implementation Process - In January 2025, a major sugar enterprise in Guangxi adopted a hybrid trading model to lock in production profits amid concerns of falling sugar prices. This model integrated off-market options into their spot trading [3] Group 3: Business Model - The enterprise signed a spot purchase contract with a trading company, embedding structured off-market options into the contract while monitoring futures contract closing prices to confirm transaction volumes [4] Group 4: Pricing Scheme - The contract activates when the Zhengzhou sugar 2505 contract exceeds 5,920 yuan/ton, with a validity of 70 days and a base transaction volume of 50 tons per day. The pricing mechanism allows for premium sales compared to market prices, providing a safety margin against price drops [5] Group 5: Effectiveness Evaluation - The enterprise successfully achieved premium sales, with the 2505 contract price ranging from 5,821 to 6,198 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 6,170 yuan/ton. The average sales price was approximately 50 yuan/ton higher than the market price during the same period [6] Group 6: Risk Management and Training - The hybrid trading model simplifies the use of options for sugar enterprises, addressing challenges such as lack of expertise and management constraints. It enhances revenue while providing a safety margin against price risks [8] - Training sessions and workshops have been conducted to improve risk management awareness among enterprises, covering market trends, price volatility, and risk assessment methods [11] Group 7: Market Development - The introduction of short-term options in February 2023 is expected to significantly boost hybrid trading, allowing for better alignment with enterprises' short-term turnover needs and reducing costs associated with traditional options [12]

| | 付至蔗农手中。 | | --- | --- | | | 4、公司是否考虑并购重组？ | | | 答：并购重组事宜需综合多方因素决策，并非公司单方面可决 | | | 定。当出现合适机会时，公司将秉持审慎原则进行研判，视情况择 | | | 机考虑相关事项，并严格按照规定履行信息披露义务。 | | | 5、公司围绕"一根甘蔗"吃干榨尽拓展产业链，大力发展附加 | | | 值高的增量项目如何实现的？ | | | 答：公司通过燃烧甘蔗渣提供蒸汽及电力，发展循环经济、实 | | | 现资源综合利用。同时，将蔗渣浆用于生产一次性环保纸杯、餐盘 | | | 等纸浆模塑制品，有效提高了蔗渣的产业化利用量，实现了甘蔗渣 | | | 从废弃物到高附加值环保产品的转变。 | | | 6、公司是否考虑通过期货等工具提高公司的经营业绩？ | | | 答：公司作为国有企业，对食糖在期货市场的投放比例受相关 | | | 规定限制。公司将密切关注期货市场动态，结合实际情况，择机运 | | | 用期货等工具进行操作。 | | 关于本次活动是否涉及应披 | 本次活动不涉及未公开披露的重大信息 | | 露重大信息的说明 | | | 活动过程 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View The report indicates that the raw sugar price has broken through the support level and declined. The trend strength of sugar is -1, suggesting a bearish outlook [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The raw sugar price is 16.91 cents per pound, down 0.34 cents year - on - year. The mainstream spot price is 6120 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan year - on - year. The futures main contract price is 5795 yuan per ton, down 46 yuan year - on - year [1]. - **Spread Data**: The 91 spread is 121 yuan per ton, down 12 yuan year - on - year. The 15 spread is 36 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan year - on - year. The mainstream spot basis is 325 yuan per ton, up 36 yuan year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **High - frequency Information**: Brazil's sugarcane crushing progress is slower than the same period last year. The USDA expects the global sugar production in the 25/26 season to increase by 4.73%. Brazil exported 1.55 million tons of sugar in April, a year - on - year decrease of 18%. As of May 15, India's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 25.74 million tons. China's imports of regular sugar, syrup, and premixed powder from January to April decreased significantly [1]. 3.3 Domestic Market - **Production, Consumption, and Import Forecast**: CAOC predicts that China's sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 11.15 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons. In the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [2]. - **Production and Sales Data**: As of the end of April, China's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.11 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons. Cumulative sugar sales were 7.24 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons, and the cumulative sales rate was 65.2%. China's sugar imports in the 24/25 season were 1.74 million tons, a decrease of 1.38 million tons [2]. 3.4 International Market - **Supply and Demand**: ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously 4.88 million tons) [3]. - **Production Data**: As of May 1, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season decreased by 33 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 1.58 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons. As of May 15, India's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 25.74 million tons, a decrease of 5.8 million tons. As of April 9, Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.05 million tons, an increase of 1.31 million tons [3]. 3.5 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of sugar is -1, indicating a bearish view, with the range of trend intensity being integers from -2 to 2, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4].

期货热点追踪 印度泰国增产在即！糖厂利润遭挤压，糖价冲高即拐点？ 相关链接 ...

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 22 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 菲律宾糖业监管局(SRA)表示，尽管受到厄尔尼诺引发的干早挑战，2024-2025 作物年度的糖产量预计将比之前的预估增加近 5%。根据最新数据，食糖产量 目前预计将达到 183.7 万吨，高于 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) predicts that sugar consumption in India may decline to approximately 28 million tons in the 2024-25 fiscal year [1] - As of mid-May, India's sugar production reached 25.744 million tons, with 533 sugar mills having completed their crushing operations [1] - In the third week of May 2025, Brazil exported a total of 919,200 tons of white sugar, a significant decrease from 2.8076 million tons in the same period last year, with an average daily shipment of 83,600 tons, down 37.5% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Insights - According to Everbright Futures, raw sugar prices have weakened slightly due to smooth harvesting progress, with a bearish outlook unless macroeconomic factors provide support [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures notes that favorable weather conditions in Brazil in May are expected to boost sugarcane and sugar production, while domestic sugar and syrup imports have significantly decreased, leading to a quicker sales pace and lighter inventory pressure [3] - The recent increase in rainfall in Guangxi has alleviated the water shortage for sugarcane, suggesting that drought conditions will not significantly impact sugarcane growth [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to remain volatile and weak due to factors such as increased global sugar supply, upcoming imports, narrowed price differences between domestic and imported sugar, and the impact of low - cost substitutes [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information Domestic Sugar Spot and Futures Prices - Domestic sugar spot prices in different regions on May 20, 2025: Nanning warehouse in Guangxi was 6220 yuan/ton, Kunming in Yunnan was 5985 yuan/ton, Dali in Yunnan was 5915 yuan/ton, and Rizhao in Shandong was 6270 yuan/ton [4]. - Futures prices: SR09 was 5849 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; SR01 was 5710 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; SR09 - 01 was 139 [4]. Exchange Rates and International Commodity Prices - Exchange rates on May 20, 2025: RMB to USD was 7.2346, up 0.0080; Brazilian real to RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; Indian rupee to RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]. - International commodity prices: ICE raw sugar主力 was 17.48, unchanged; London white sugar主力 was 573, up 3; Brent crude oil主力 was 65.48, unchanged [4]. Supply - side Factors - Brazil's central - southern region: In the second half of April, the sugarcane crushing volume increased year - on - year, and the sugar - making ratio remained high. The expected sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season may reach 42 million tons, strengthening the pattern of loose global supply [4]. - Imports: The earlier drop of ICE raw sugar below 18 cents/pound triggered domestic sugar purchases. The near - month purchase volume exceeded one million tons, and imported sugar is expected to arrive at ports from mid - to - late June, increasing supply pressure in the third quarter. The out - of - quota import cost from Brazil dropped to 5980 yuan/ton, and the price difference with domestic spot prices narrowed to 150 yuan/ton, stimulating subsequent purchases [4]. - Substitutes: From January to March, the import of syrups and premixes was 242,000 tons (equivalent to about 156,000 tons of sugar), and low - cost substitutes continued to squeeze the consumption space of domestic - produced sugar [4].

Core Insights - Weak demand has raised alarms, leading to a significant reduction in India's sugar consumption forecast, indicating a shift in supply-demand dynamics [1] - The potential for a turnaround in white sugar price trends remains uncertain amidst these changes [1] Group 1: Demand and Consumption - India's sugar consumption forecast has been drastically lowered due to weak demand [1] - This decline in consumption is expected to impact the overall sugar market significantly [1] Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - A new supply-demand landscape is emerging in the sugar industry, influenced by the changes in India's consumption patterns [1] - The industry is closely monitoring how these shifts will affect white sugar prices moving forward [1]