证券研究报告 | 2025年06月11日 $\left[\begin{array}{c}\mbox{E}_{1}\mbox{E}_{2}\mbox{E}_{3}\\ \mbox{E}_{3}\mbox{E}_{4}\mbox{E}_{5}\mbox{E}_{6}\end{array}\right]$. 市场表现：今日(20250611) 大部分指数处于上涨状态，规模指数中沪深 300 指数表现较好，板块指数中创业板指表现较好，风格指数中中证 500 成长指 数表现较好。有色金属、农林牧渔、非银、汽车、综合金融行业表现较好， 医药、通信、电力公用事业、食品饮料、交通运输行业表现较差。稀土永磁、 稀土、钨矿、智能 IC 卡、网络游戏等概念表现较好，阿尔兹海默、光纤、 胶原蛋白、数据中心互联、化妆品等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：今日收盘时有 70 只股票涨停，有 7 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票 今日收盘收益为 2.19%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为-0.98%。今日封板率 63%，较前日提升 1%，连板率 28%，较前日下降 0%。 市场资金流向：截至 20250610 两融余额为 18170 亿元，其中融资余额 18 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.52%, stabilizing above 3400 points, with a trading volume of 1.25 trillion yuan, indicating a significant market sentiment despite a decrease in trading volume [3] - The financial sector, particularly brokerage firms, showed strong performance, with expectations building ahead of the upcoming Lujiazui Forum [3] Key Sectors Rare Earths - The rare earth permanent magnet sector saw significant gains, with companies like Zhongke Magnetic and Beikong Technology hitting the daily limit, driven by new developments in US-China trade negotiations [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce approved a batch of rare earth export applications, balancing national security with global supply chain needs, which is expected to support long-term growth in high-demand industries such as robotics and new energy vehicles [3] Automotive Parts - The automotive parts sector experienced a surge, with companies like Meichen Technology and Quanfeng Automotive reaching daily limits, following announcements from major automakers like BYD and Xpeng to shorten supplier payment terms to within 60 days [4] - This policy change is anticipated to improve cash flow for small and medium-sized parts manufacturers, enhancing performance expectations, alongside a 6.7% year-on-year increase in parts exports from January to May [4] Notable Stocks Yiming Pharmaceutical - Yiming Pharmaceutical has seen six consecutive trading limits due to a change in controlling shareholder, which opens up new opportunities for capital operations and industry collaboration [5] - The company has performance guarantees in place, ensuring a minimum net profit of 30 million yuan annually from 2025 to 2027, providing a safety net for its stock price [5] Angli Kang - Angli Kang has achieved four consecutive trading limits, focusing on innovative drug development and pet medicine, with a projected R&D investment of 230 million yuan in 2024, a 33.74% increase year-on-year [5] - The pet medicine sector is expected to become a new profit growth point as the domestic pet economy is on the rise [5] Jinying Co. - Jinying Co. also recorded four consecutive trading limits, driven by dividend announcements and improvements in its textile machinery business, with a planned dividend of 1 yuan per share in 2024 [5] - The company is experiencing a rise in gross margin for its textile business and an increase in plastic machinery exports, indicating a positive trend in its fundamentals [5] Investment Strategy - The rare earth and automotive parts sectors are highlighted as areas of focus due to favorable policies and industry growth prospects, with recommendations to wait for pullbacks to key support levels for entry [5]

Core Theme - The 11th China (Shanghai) International Technology Import and Export Fair (referred to as "the Fair") opened on June 11, focusing on "Open Cooperation: Empowering New Quality Productivity and Sustainable Development" with a total exhibition area of 35,000 square meters and nearly 1,000 participating companies [1] Group 1: Technological Innovations - The Fair showcased significant technological advancements, including the world's largest multifunctional intelligent environmental paving ship, "Traffic Construction No. 9," which reduces operational personnel from 12 to 2, cutting labor costs by 80% and operation time by 40% [5][6] - A new energy unmanned algae ship was also presented, capable of autonomous operation for monitoring and treatment, significantly lowering human input and enhancing safety [7] - The Zhangjiang area highlighted nearly 100 breakthrough technologies in fields such as brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, quantum technology, and synthetic biology [8] Group 2: Medical Innovations - The global first biodegradable left atrial appendage occluder, Bio-Lefort, was introduced by Lepu Medical Technology, addressing the issue of traditional metal occluders remaining in the body indefinitely [10] - Lepu's latest transcatheter aortic valve replacement system, ScienCrown, offers a safer treatment option for elderly patients with aortic stenosis [12] - Nanjing Sanjieji Medical Technology showcased leading 3D printing drug technology, with a production capacity of 75 million to 300 million tablets annually, and a significant partnership with Germany's BioNTech worth over $1.2 billion [14] Group 3: AI and Digital Innovations - iFLYTEK presented its latest AI models and applications, including a virtual teacher capable of responding to students' inquiries in various settings, enhancing educational engagement [16][18] - Shanghai Yunna Intelligent introduced a NANO unmanned retail solution, improving shopping efficiency in high-traffic areas [18] Group 4: Security and Energy Efficiency - The G60 commercial password industry base showcased AI-enabled password security detection technology, with a market share of 20% after completing over 2,000 system detections [20][22] - Jinke Energy presented a revolutionary condensate water atomization energy-saving device that can reduce air conditioning electricity consumption by over 10%, with a payback period of 4 to 8 months for users [24][25]

分析师：柏逸凡 登记编号：S0890524100001 分析师：程秉哲 登记编号：S0890522110001 投资要点 本报告统计时间为2025.06.03-2025.06.06。 短期以稳应变，关注银行等偏防守板块。关税谈判阶段预期反复的概率仍然不小，经济下行压力 有所回升，风险偏好或难以大幅回升，且在有中央汇金托底的背景下，大盘权重下行空间相对有 限，尤其银行等抛压较小的板块预计将继续保持稳健。微盘股指数、成交占比、IM贴水呈"三 高"局面，尽管短期仍可能强势，但波动风险加大，一旦出现拐点则调整风险不小。因此建议耐心 等待科技、医药、服务消费（旅游、文娱、体育等）、新消费（玩具、宠物、谷子、时尚美容 等）调整后更具性价比的布局机会。 商品市场方面， 上周，贵金属、有色板块趋势强度大幅上升，能化、黑色板块延续其趋势性；基 差动量方面，黑色、贵金属板块基差动量快速上升，能化、有色板块基差动量快速下降；波动率 方面，贵金属、黑色板块波动率迅速上升；流动性方面，能化板块流动性较强，其余板块流动性 较为一般。 期权市场方面， 从隐含波动率水平来看，端午后上证50与中证1000隐波无明显趋势，上证50相比 中证10 ...

兴业期货日度策略：2025.06.11 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 商品期货方面：苯乙烯支撑走强，PTA 及碳酸锂基本面驱动仍向下。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 期指接近上方阻力位，突破仍需利好进一步累积 复中。 | 震荡偏强 | 投资咨询部 从业资格： | | | | 周二 A 股市场小幅调整，科技板块集体回落，沪深两市成交额 | | | | | | 继续回升至 1.45（前值 1.31）万亿元。从行业来看，银行、医药 | | | | | | 板块偏强，国防军工、计算机、综合金融行业领跌。股指期货随现 | | | | | | 货回调，IF、IH 基差略有走弱，IM 持仓量回升，深度贴水稳步修 | | 张舒绮 | 联系人：房紫薇 | | | | | | 021-80220135 | | | 随着五月以来的震荡爬升，当前各指数已接近震荡区间上沿， | | F3037345 | 从业资格： | | | 继续向上突破需政策面 ...

美元近期走势与诸因素相关，但这些因素合力相互抵消，故美元走势平稳。在利率走向方面，市场对美 联储年内降息次数的预期有所减弱，目前已减弱至"年内仅降息一次"。在美国国内政局方面，因美国国 内与抗议相关的新闻扰动较多，该因素又构成美元压力。在美国与包括中国在内的各贸易对手谈判方 面，相关消息颇为中性。 周三稍晚，美国将公布重要数据（5月CPI），若数据意外大起大落，不排除当前美元的盘整局面瞬间 被打破的可能。 多数个股上涨，稀土、游戏、能源金属、保险、汽车零部件、证券、贸易行业、非金属材料、珠宝首 饰、有色金属板块涨幅居前，日用化工、医药、电信等少数板块下跌。 导致周三A股上涨的利好消息主要与中美贸易谈判取得进展相关，中美相关官员已结束了在伦敦为期两 天的会谈，贸易谈判相关消息面的不确定性已在很大程度上得到缓解。 周三中午，人民日报表示，伦敦时间6月10日，商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢在伦敦谈到中 美经贸磋商机制首次会议时表示，中美双方进行了专业、理性、深入、坦诚的沟通。双方原则上就落实 两国元首6月5日通话共识以及日内瓦会谈共识达成了框架。稍早美国商务部长卢特尼克也曾表示，美国 和中国已经达成落实日内瓦 ...

5月，国内宏观经济走势有所改善，但依旧承压。反映国内经济先行指标的制造业PMI录得 49.5%，在4月份49.0%的基础上回升0.5%，连续两个月位于收缩区间。制造业景气水平的上升 主要是受到生产指数、新订单指数、原料库存指数和从业人员指数环比上行所带来的影响。4 月份CPI同比下降0.1%，PPI同比下降2.7%。相比于3月份CPI和PPI同比分别下降0.1%和下降 2.5%而言，CPI同比涨幅持平主要是受到食品价格降幅收窄和服务价格上涨的影响；生产资料 价格和生活资料价格的降幅扩大，带动PPI同比降幅上升。 5月，中美关税冲突有所缓和，叠加央行降准降息政策的落地推动A股在上旬回暖。随着市场 对关税利好的消化，下旬，受到特朗普贸易政策不确定性的延续及4月经济数据边际偏弱的影 响，股市出现小幅回落。主要股指在5月迎来普涨，其中上证指数和深证成指分别上涨2.09% 和1.42%。代表大盘股、中盘股和小盘股的沪深300指数、中证500指数和中证1000指数分别上 涨1.85%、0.70%和1.28%。31个申万行业多数收涨，其中25个行业上涨，6个行业下跌。环 保、医药生物、国防军工、银行和纺织服饰板块的涨幅均超 ...

Group 1 - The market index showed a strong recovery today, reversing the previous day's losses, but there was a divergence between market sentiment and the index performance [2][3] - High-profile stocks in the market experienced a collective decline, indicating that current market sentiment is not favorable for trading [3][4] - Digital currency remains a promising sector with potential for sustained performance, as highlighted in previous analyses [2][3] Group 2 - Financial stocks are expected to strengthen, which could positively influence the digital currency sector, aligning with the anticipated upward trend of the index [3][4] - The market is characterized by a lack of core direction, with various sectors experiencing random rotations and insufficient continuity [4] - Investors are advised to control their positions to manage drawdowns and selectively choose directions for trading, focusing on stocks with clear recognition [4]

Core Viewpoint - A-shares have maintained an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3400 points, supported by three major positive factors, indicating the potential for a "China-style slow bull" market [1][6][19] Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares opened strong and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3400 points and the ChiNext Index rising over 1% [2][4] - The total trading volume of the two markets reached 1.26 trillion yuan, with sectors like gaming, brokerage, and auto parts leading the gains, while the pharmaceutical sector experienced a pullback [4] Group 2: Positive Factors - **U.S.-China Trade Negotiations**: Recent progress in U.S.-China trade talks has improved market sentiment, enhancing the index's investment value [5][7][8] - **Brokerage Sector Rally**: The brokerage sector, known as the "bull market flag bearer," saw a nearly 2% increase, significantly contributing to the index's rise [9][11] - **Foreign Investment**: International investors are increasingly looking to diversify their portfolios and are showing a stronger willingness to invest in Chinese stocks, indicating substantial future buying potential [12][13] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical analysis shows that A-shares have exhibited different behaviors after breaking through 3400 points, with three main scenarios identified: sustained bull markets, bear market rebounds, and economic recovery-driven trends [14][16][17] - Current analysts suggest that for the market to continue its upward trajectory, conditions such as increased trading volume and supportive policies are necessary [18][19] - The potential for a "China-style slow bull" market is highlighted, with expectations for a gradual improvement in market conditions and corporate earnings [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "Eight Measures for Deepening the Reform of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board" (referred to as "K8 Measures") has provided clearer directions for the behavior of listed companies and IPO reviews, emphasizing the support for hard technology enterprises that align with national strategic needs [1] Group 1: R&D Investment - R&D investment in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board reached a total of 168.08 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.7% over the past three years [2][3] - The median ratio of R&D investment to operating income is 12.6%, leading all A-share sectors [3] - By the end of 2024, over 120,000 invention patents had been accumulated, with more than 20,000 new patents added in 2024 alone [3] Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - Since the release of the K8 Measures, over 100 new industry mergers and acquisitions have been disclosed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with a total transaction value exceeding 33 billion yuan [5][6] - Notable transactions include Haiguang Information's planned merger with Zhongke Shuguang, expected to exceed 100 billion yuan, aiming for comprehensive integration in key fields [6] - Companies are increasingly enthusiastic about mergers and acquisitions, with many planning to accelerate the implementation of industry mergers to enhance their competitive edge [6][7] Group 3: Equity Incentives - Over 430 companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board have launched more than 760 equity incentive plans, covering over 70% of the board and involving more than 140,000 individuals [8] - The K8 Measures encourage the improvement of equity incentive systems to better align the interests of listed companies with those of investors [8][9] - Companies are setting performance assessment targets for equity incentives that reflect binding interests with small and medium investors [8] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - More than 60% of Sci-Tech Innovation Board companies have proposed cash dividend plans for 2024, with a total dividend amount exceeding 38.6 billion yuan [11] - 320 companies have announced share repurchase and increase plans in 2024, with a total upper limit exceeding 35 billion yuan [11] - Companies are actively engaging with investors through various initiatives, including performance briefings and open days [12]