FICC日报 | 2025-05-09 关注中国4月进出口数据 市场分析 4月政治局会议定调积极。4月25日，我国召开政治局会议，"今年经济呈现向好态势""外部冲击影响加大"定调当下 经济判断，对于宏观政策，会议表示"加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽 松的货币政策，适时降准降息"，此外"提高中低收入群体收入"、"推进城市更新和城中村、危旧房改造"等措词也 值得关注。中国一季度GDP同比增长5.4%，延续去年以来持续稳中向好、稳中回升的态势。中国4月官方制造业PMI 49，预期49.7，前值 50.5。新订单和生产分项双双回落至收缩区间，新出口订单大幅回落，说明关税政策对基本 面的冲击已逐步显现。5月7日，"一行一局一会"出台一揽子金融政策提振经济，央行推出三大类共十项货币政策 措施，包括降准0.5个百分点，降低政策利率0.1个百分点，创设新的政策工具等；金融监管总局将推出八项增量政 策，涉房地产金融、险资入市、稳外贸等；证监会表示将"持续稳定和活跃资本市场"，稳步推进市场对外开放。 关税事件对情绪冲击告一段落，后续关注对经济影响。近期特朗普关税政策依旧 "折腾" 不断。美国对 ...

期货热点追踪 铁矿石期货小幅下跌，4月铁矿石进口量飙升，但需求疲软的阴影仍在，价格何去何从？ 相关链接 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot market for copper is strong, which supports the price. The trend strength of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 77,330 with a daily decline of 0.59%, and the night - session closing price was 78,140 with a night - session increase of 1.05%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,475 with a 0.73% increase [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract was 116,718, a decrease of 16,050 from the previous day, and the open interest was 179,692, an increase of 589. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 8,647, an increase of 1,577, and the open interest was 291,000, a decrease of 945 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 19,540, a decrease of 2,001, and the LME copper inventory was 194,275, an increase of 300. The LME copper注销仓单 ratio was 43.25%, a decrease of 1.15% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME copper spread increased by 24.17 to 45.82. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price increased by 100 to 72,300. The spot - to - near - month futures spread decreased by 35 to 225, and the near - month to consecutive - first - month contract spread increased by 190 to 560 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff and trade agreement terms, with the US retaining a 10% base tariff, reducing the tariff on the first 100,000 imported UK cars to 10%, and reducing steel and aluminum tariffs to zero. The EU will sue the US at the WTO over tariffs and prepare counter - measures against 95 billion euros of US imports [1] - **Micro**: ICSG data shows that the global refined copper market is expected to have a supply surplus of 289,000 tons in 2025 and 209,000 tons in 2026. Chile's copper production in March was 477,049 tons, a 9.1% year - on - year increase. Zambia's copper production in Q1 increased by 30% year - on - year to about 224,000 tons. The US added 10 mining projects to the fast - track approval list, including copper and palladium. Chile's copper export value in April was $4.52 billion, an 8.2% year - on - year increase [1][3]

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Title] 巴里克 2025Q1 黄金产/销量环比分别减少 30%/减 少 22%至 23.58/23.36 吨，铜产销量环比分别减少 31%/6%至 4.4/5.1 万吨，净利润环比减少 52%至 4.74 亿美元 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 8 日 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 生产经营情况 1）黄金 产量：2025Q1，生产 75.8 万盎司（23.58 吨）黄金，环比减少 30%，同比减少 19%。2025Q1 产量处于指导范围的上限，但 由于计划维护，尤其是 Pueblo Viejo 和 Carlin 的维护，产量 环比有所下降。 销量：2025Q1，售出 75.1 万盎司（23.36 吨）黄金，环比减少 22%，同比减少 17%。黄金销量下降的主要原因是 Loulo- Gounkoto 自 2025 年 1 月 14 日起暂停运营，以及 Carlin 矿山产量下降（主要原因是本季度 Goldstrike 焙烧炉按计划关 闭），以及 Cortez 矿山按计划开采和加 ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has surged to over 65 cents against the US dollar, marking a five-month high and the first time since early December last year [2] - The recent Australian election resulted in a significant victory for Albanese's Labor Party, securing 87 parliamentary seats and indicating strong public trust in the party [3][4] - The election outcome signals the end of political uncertainty in Australia, providing policy support for the AUD [5] Group 2 - Economic data supports the strength of the AUD, with the TD-MI inflation index rising 0.6% month-on-month in April, marking the second consecutive month of increase [7] - The annual inflation index increased to 3.3%, up from 2.8% previously [8] - The Judo Bank composite PMI for April stood at 51.0, indicating economic expansion for the seventh consecutive month [9] Group 3 - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have created market volatility, but recent indications of trade negotiations have improved market sentiment [11][14] - Any positive developments in US-China trade relations are likely to bolster the AUD due to Australia's close trade ties with China [17][22] - China's recent economic stimulus measures, including a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, are expected to enhance demand for Australian exports, further supporting the AUD [19][20] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates without changes reflects growing economic risks in the US, which may lead to a decline in the US dollar [23][26] - Concerns over the US economic outlook and potential political issues could trigger a sell-off of the US dollar, making the AUD more attractive to investors [28][30] - The strong Australian consumer inflation data has led to expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia, but it also supports the AUD by reducing expectations for aggressive rate cuts [31][32] Group 5 - The political stability and economic recovery in Australia, combined with supportive external factors, suggest a positive outlook for the AUD [33][34] - The AUD is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by optimism regarding US-China trade relations and increased demand from China for Australian commodities [36][37]

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Title] 巴里克 2025Q1 黄金产/销量环比分别减少 30%/减 少 22%至 23.58/23.36 吨，铜产销量环比分别减少 31%/6%至 4.4/5.1 万吨，净利润环比减少 52%至 4.74 亿美元 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 8 日 销量：2025Q1，售出 5.1 万吨铜，环比减少 6%，同比增加 31%。 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 生产经营情况 1）黄金 产量：2025Q1，生产 75.8 万盎司（23.58 吨）黄金，环比减少 30%，同比减少 19%。2025Q1 产量处于指导范围的上限，但 由于计划维护，尤其是 Pueblo Viejo 和 Carlin 的维护，产量 环比有所下降。 销量：2025Q1，售出 75.1 万盎司（23.36 吨）黄金，环比减少 22%，同比减少 17%。黄金销量下降的主要原因是 Loulo- Gounkoto 自 2025 年 1 月 14 日起暂停运营，以及 Carlin 矿山产量下降（主要原因是本季度 Go ...

| | | 5月8日重要公告摘要 | | --- | --- | --- | | 类型 | 公司 | 主要内容 | | 今日聚焦 | 中芯国际 | 季度净利润同比增长167% | | | 招商银行 | 拟150亿元设立金融资产投资公司 | | | 中信银行 | 拟100亿元设立全资子公司信银金融资产投资有限公司 | | | 国科恒泰 | 四位股东拟合计减持不超4. 7%公司股份 | | 投资8签约 | 宁波华翔 | 与象山工投、上海智元合作 拟在机器人等领域加强合作 | | | 金诚信 | 拟投资2.31亿美元建设Alacran铜金银矿项目 | | 股权变动 | 耐普矿机 | 拟认购瑞士Veritas Resources AG股权 | | 增减持&回购 | 东华软件 | 实控人及其一致行动人拟减持不超1%公司股份 | | 经营&业绩 | 金新农 | 4月生猪销售收入1.39亿元 | | | 立华股份 | 4月销售肉鸡收入11. 25亿元 | | 合同&项目中标 | 国网信通 | 全资子公司拟合计中标4. 77亿元国家电网采购项目 | | 股价异动 | 中航成飞 | 不存在公司应披露而未披露的重大事项 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 Mining Industry Data Governance White Paper" released by Tencent Cloud and Yunding Technology provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state, challenges, strategies, trends, and case studies in data governance within the mining industry, aiming to guide digital transformation in the sector [1][2]. Current State of Data Governance - The mining industry faces a complex data governance environment characterized by a vast amount of heterogeneous data generated from smart mining initiatives, with varying levels of data governance maturity among companies [1][2]. - Data resources are abundant, but the conversion into usable resources is limited, leading to underutilization of data value and prevalent data silos [1][2]. - There is a significant shortage of data governance talent, and the uncertainty of funding investment returns hampers the progress of data governance initiatives [1][2]. Strategies to Address Challenges - Promote digital organizational transformation by establishing a multi-level data governance structure with clear responsibilities [1][2]. - Cultivate a digital talent pool focusing on recruitment, retention, and utilization across four dimensions [1][2]. - Build a unified data foundation to integrate data and provide services, addressing data processing challenges with Tencent's products [1][2]. - Accelerate the establishment of data standards covering various business models and lifecycle management [1][2]. - Implement strict data quality controls and establish a quality control system and verification rules [1][2]. - Break down data supply and demand barriers by creating resource directories and expanding application scenarios [1][2]. - Empower data elements to drive business decisions and enhance production efficiency [1][2]. Development Trends - Traditional miners are transitioning to "new-type miners" with multi-disciplinary knowledge [2]. - Data governance is shifting from independent construction to multi-faceted collaboration involving various stakeholders [2]. - Data weaving technology is reshaping data architecture for unified management [2]. - DataOps is creating a new paradigm for data governance, improving the efficiency of data product delivery [2]. - Deep integration of data and AI is enhancing the data governance framework and evaluation system [2]. - Establishing data operation centers to accelerate value release [2]. - Creating trusted data spaces to ensure data security and promote efficient data circulation [2]. Typical Case Studies - Shandong Energy Group's comprehensive safety production technology management platform has achieved data sharing, improving data quality and decision-making levels [2]. - The coal mine dynamic pressure big data analysis platform has reduced personnel workload and enhanced safety levels in the coal industry [2]. - Yunnan Energy Investment's safety production operation monitoring and emergency command center project has transitioned data online, empowering business development and driving model innovation [2].

Suspension and Resumption - Huina Technology's controlling shareholder Zhang Hongjun is planning to transfer shares, and the company will continue to be suspended from trading [1] Buybacks and Increases - Sichuan Changhong plans to repurchase company shares worth between 250 million to 500 million yuan for equity incentives [2] - Hainan Development's controlling shareholder and its concerted parties intend to increase their holdings of company shares by 100 million to 200 million yuan [3] - Changhong Meiling plans to repurchase shares worth between 150 million to 300 million yuan [11] - Changhong Huayi plans to repurchase shares worth between 150 million to 300 million yuan [11] - AVIC High-Tech plans to repurchase shares worth between 100 million to 200 million yuan [11] Investment Cooperation and Operational Status - Ningbo Huaxiang is collaborating with Xiangshan Industrial Investment and Shanghai Zhiyuan to strengthen cooperation in the robotics sector [4] - Naipu Mining plans to subscribe for equity in Switzerland's Veritas Resources AG to indirectly participate in the development of the San Matias project Alacran copper-gold-silver mine in Colombia [4] - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation intends to issue A-shares to all shareholders of China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Group as part of a merger application that has been accepted [4] - Citic Bank plans to invest 10 billion yuan to establish a financial asset investment company [5] - China Merchants Bank plans to invest 15 billion yuan to establish a financial asset investment company [6] - Pinggao Electric has won a procurement project from the State Grid, with a total bid amount of 1.751 billion yuan [7] - Jinchengxin plans to invest 231 million USD in the Alacran copper-gold-silver mine project and intends to acquire 5% equity in Colombia's CMH company for 10 million USD to gain control [7] - Tangrenshen's pig sales in April increased by 37.98% year-on-year [8] - FAW Fuwi has secured a seat project from a well-known luxury brand manufacturer worth 1.39 billion yuan [9] Performance Changes - SMIC's net profit for Q1 2025 is 1.356 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 166.5%. The company expects a revenue decline of 4% to 6% in Q2, with a gross margin guidance of 18% to 20%. The capacity utilization rate in Q1 rose to 89.6%, an increase of 4.1 percentage points [10]

金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（5月8日） 1. 据Mysteel，限产消息对东北区域影响有限，吉林区域由于近年钢厂生产意愿持续低迷还处于减量状 态，故与限产难有关联；至于辽黑两地限产消息影响几何，也需等政策最终落地方能知晓。 2. 路透公布对USDA 5月供需报告中美国农作物产量的数据预测，分析师平均预计，美国2025/2026年度 大豆产量料为43.38亿蒲式耳，预估区间介于43-44亿蒲式耳，USDA农业展望论坛为43.7亿蒲式耳。 3. 巴西全国谷物出口商协会（Anec）预计，巴西5月大豆出口为1260万吨，去年同期为1347万吨；豆粕 出口预计为187万吨，去年同期为197万吨。 4. 阿联酋富查伊拉石油工业区最新数据显示，截至5月5日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油总库存环比 上升了0.1%，达到2074.2万桶。其中，中质馏分油库存下降了20%，至173万桶，为七个月低点。 5. 据SMM了解，近期华南市场光伏玻璃企业部分报价下调至13元/平方米，主要原因为组件需求以及组 件价格的下降使组件企业对原料接受心态下降，原报价无接单，为促进接单，局部报价下调，预计后续 光伏玻璃市场或将出现普遍下调预 ...