Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the price of lithium carbonate rose significantly and then entered a high - level oscillation. The main reason was that on November 6, the Natural Resources Department of Jiangxi Province released the publicity of the evaluation of the transfer right - of - use fee for Zhenxiawo Mine, which increased the cost and limited the supply increment in November. However, bulls were cautious near the previous high, and the selling pressure was strong, leading to the high - level oscillation of the price [4]. - In the later stage, there will be a fierce game between bulls and bears, and the lithium price will fluctuate widely. From the bull's perspective, there is no expectation of Zhenxiawo Mine's resumption in the short term, with a bottleneck in supply increment. Terminal power demand is strong, inventory is accelerating depletion, and the fundamentals are improving. Also, driven by policies and large industrial orders, the demand for energy storage is expected to increase. From the bear's perspective, terminal power demand may decline in December, and the increment of imported resources is clear, which may cool down the fundamentals [4][13]. Group 3: Summary by Sections Market Data - From November 7 to November 14, 2025, the price of imported lithium ore (1.3% - 2.2%) decreased from 147 to 140 dollars/ton, a decline of 5.10%; the price of imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) decreased from 904 to 891 dollars/ton, a decline of 1.44%; the price of domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) decreased from 904 to 891 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.44%; the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 8.23 to 8.74 million yuan/ton, an increase of 6.15%; the price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased from 8.05 to 8.57 million yuan/ton, an increase of 6.54%; the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 123,777 to 121,140 tons, a decline of 2.13% [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - **Regulatory and Delivery**: As of November 14, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 27,170 lots, with the latest matching transaction price of 86,880 yuan/ton. The holding scale of the main contract 2601 was 516,800 lots [7]. - **Supply Side**: As of November 14, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 23,850 tons, an increase of 385 tons from the previous period. Zhenxiawo Mine was still shut down, and it was difficult to resume production in November. Although the supply of lithium concentrate was abundant, the processing capacity of spodumene - based lithium production had a bottleneck, and the output of northern salt lakes would weaken with the cold weather, so the short - term supply shortage was difficult to ease [7]. - **Lithium Salt Import**: In September, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. The import from Chile was about 1.08 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.5%, accounting for about 55.2%; the import from Argentina was 6,948 tons, a year - on - year increase of 242.9%, accounting for about 35.5%. In October, the scale of lithium carbonate shipped from Chile to China was about 16,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of about 46%. With the ramp - up of Zijin Mining's 3Q project, there was a strong expectation of an increase in imports from Argentina [8]. - **Lithium Ore Import**: In September, the total import of lithium ore was about 711,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.8%. The import from Australia was 347,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.1%; the import from Zimbabwe was about 109,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8%; the import from Nigeria was about 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.4%; the import from South Africa increased significantly to about 108,700 tons [8][9]. - **Demand**: - **Downstream Cathode Materials**: As of November 14, the total output of lithium iron phosphate was about 99,906 tons, with an operating rate of 87.92%, an increase of 2.68 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 39,732 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period. The total output of ternary materials was about 19,784 tons, with an operating rate of 51.77%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 12,090 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous period. The price of ternary materials was relatively stable, and the price of lithium iron phosphate increased [10]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From November 1 to 9, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 265,000, a year - on - year decrease of 5% compared with the same period in November last year and a month - on - month increase of 16%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 1,041.5 million, a year - on - year increase of 21%. There were large fluctuations in the delivery rhythm of car companies. Policies on new - energy vehicle subsidies varied among different provinces and cities [11]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 121,140 tons, a decrease of about 2,637 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 22,140 tons, a decrease of about 160 tons from the previous period; the market inventory was 71,508 tons, a decrease of about 1,273 tons from the previous period; the exchange inventory was 27,170 lots, a decrease of 162 lots from the previous week [12]. This Week's Outlook - There will be a fierce game between bulls and bears, and the lithium price will fluctuate widely. The short - term supply bottleneck and strong terminal demand support the bullish view, while the possible decline in terminal power demand in December and the clear increment of imported resources support the bearish view [13]. Industry News - Fosu Technology plans to jointly establish a project company with Zijin Lithium Yuan and others to invest in a battery - grade lithium sulfide pilot - scale platform project. The project company has a registered capital of 100 million yuan, and Fosu Technology will contribute 5 million yuan, accounting for 5% of the equity. The planned total investment of the project is 113 million yuan, and a 100 - ton/year lithium sulfide production line will be built [14]. - Posco Holdings will invest $765 million to acquire a 30% stake in the lithium business of Mineral Resources Ltd. in Australia and will form a joint venture. Posco Holdings will have partial ownership of two mines in Western Australia and will obtain lithium concentrate equivalent to its equity [14]. - After the technological transformation of Shilei Fluorine Materials is completed, the production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate of New宙邦 will increase to 36,000 tons/year. Currently, the production capacity is 24,000 tons/year [14]. - Shenzhen Xingxing is arranging the installation of equipment before the production of 7,200 - ton lithium hexafluorophosphate capacity. The construction of this capacity was basically completed in mid - 2024 but was not put into production due to low market prices [14]. - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced the suspension of the implementation of export controls on some items including lithium batteries from November 7, 2025, to November 10, 2026 [14].

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate has increased by over 4%, leading to a rise in Hong Kong lithium mining stocks, with Tianqi Lithium up over 5% and Ganfeng Lithium up over 4% [1] Industry Summary - The main contract for lithium carbonate has risen by 4% to 90,860 yuan per ton [1] - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman, Li Liangbin, stated that global lithium carbonate demand is expected to reach 1.45 million tons by 2025, but due to increased demand in the second half of the year, the annual demand forecast has been updated to 1.55 million tons [1] - Supply capacity is projected to be over 1.7 million tons, indicating a surplus of around 200,000 tons, which contributes to the current low prices [1] - It is predicted that lithium carbonate demand will grow by 30% in 2026, reaching 1.9 million tons, while supply capacity is expected to increase by approximately 250,000 tons, leading to a near balance in supply and demand [1] - If demand growth exceeds 30% next year, potentially reaching 40%, short-term supply may not be able to keep up, causing prices to potentially exceed 150,000 yuan per ton or even 200,000 yuan per ton [1]

港股锂矿股高开，其中，天齐锂业涨超5%，赣锋锂业涨超4%。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the lithium market, particularly the carbonate lithium segment, and its investment value as of November 2025 [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Lithium Market Dynamics**: The current inventory of carbonate lithium is decreasing faster than expected, with a weekly reduction of over 3,000 tons, despite the resumption of production by Ningde Times, which has an annual output of approximately 100,000 tons [3][4]. - **Downstream Demand Growth**: The demand for energy storage is expected to grow significantly, with projections for 2025 reaching 580 GWh, a 75% increase year-over-year. Each additional 100 GWh of storage demand translates to a need for 60,000 to 70,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent [4][5]. - **Impact of Ningde Times**: Ningde Times dominates the Yichun region's mining sector, and its production resumption has a diminished impact on the current rapid inventory reduction [5][6]. - **International Supply Adjustments**: Rising domestic lithium prices have benefited overseas mining companies, particularly in Australia, which have raised their production forecasts for the upcoming year. However, capital expenditures have declined since 2024, leading to a slowdown in actual supply growth over the next 2-3 years [6][7]. - **African Mining Supply Trends**: African mines, while previously significant, are experiencing a slowdown in growth due to cost pressures and price fluctuations. Many companies are adjusting their supply plans in response to these challenges [7][8]. Price Expectations - **Future Price Projections**: The price of carbonate lithium is expected to exceed 100,000 yuan per ton in 2026, driven by increased demand and potential shortages due to downstream stocking and trading activities [9][14]. - **Cost Reduction Potential**: There is potential for cost reductions in lithium spodumene through process optimization and local production of lithium sulfate in Zimbabwe, with some companies targeting a fully loaded cost below 60,000 yuan [10]. Regional Developments - **Domestic Salt Lake Lithium Production**: The expansion of lithium production from Qinghai salt lakes is limited due to resource constraints, while projects in Tibet show promise but will not significantly impact supply in the short term [11][12]. - **Sichuan Lithium Spodumene Mines**: Several lithium spodumene mines in Sichuan are operational, with larger projects expected to come online, but they will not significantly affect the supply-demand balance in the near term [13]. Investment Opportunities - **Investment Focus**: Companies with future production growth potential, such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianhua New Energy, Guocheng Mining, and Dazhong Mining, are highlighted as attractive investment targets. Additionally, leading firms like Ganfeng, Tianqi, and Zhongmin Yongxing are also recommended for long-term investment due to their strong performance in previous cycles [9][18]. Market Behavior and Corporate Strategies - **Proactive Corporate Actions**: Companies are taking proactive measures regarding production adjustments to respond to market conditions, with a lower likelihood of bankruptcies due to strong cash positions [15][16]. - **AISC Cost Considerations**: The All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) concept may limit the ability of Australian mining companies to expand significantly due to high operational costs relative to selling prices [17]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the lithium market's current state, future expectations, and potential investment opportunities.

Core Insights - The chairman of Ganfeng Lithium, Li Liangbin, predicts that global lithium carbonate demand will increase from an original estimate of 1.45 million tons in 2025 to 1.55 million tons due to growth in the second half of the year [1][2] - Supply capacity is expected to exceed 1.7 million tons, resulting in a surplus of approximately 200,000 tons, which has led to low prices this year [1][2] - For 2026, lithium carbonate demand is projected to grow by 30% to 1.9 million tons, with supply capacity expected to increase by around 250,000 tons, leading to a near balance in supply and demand and potential price increases [1][2] - If demand growth exceeds 30% next year, potentially reaching 40%, short-term supply may not balance, and prices could exceed 150,000 yuan/ton, possibly reaching 200,000 yuan/ton [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for lithium carbonate is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (11/10 - 11/14), lithium salt prices increased with rising positions. The closing prices of LC2511 and LC2601 rose by 6.5% and 6.1% respectively, and the spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 5.9%. Lithium hydroxide prices also edged up [1]. - The main reason for the significant increase in the lithium price center last week was concentrated on Monday. Currently, the position volume remains high, and on Friday, some long - position holders took profits, causing the market to oscillate at a high level. The core logic for long - position holders to increase positions at high levels is the strong - reality trading under continuous strong demand and accelerated inventory reduction, as well as the expected cost increase of Jiangxi mica mines after paying the mining right transfer income. There are large differences in the market's expectations for the resumption of production rhythm. Attention should be paid to potential resumption information after the publicity period [2][15]. - In the short term, the lithium price is expected to remain oscillating at a high level, and range operation can be maintained. In the medium term, one can look for opportunities to short at high levels after the demand weakens month - on - month and the project resumption rhythm becomes clear [2][15][16] Summary According to the Catalog 1. Chile's October Shipment and Market Supply Game - In October, Chile's lithium salt shipments and Australian ore exports increased marginally after the lithium price rose. The market's game on supply has intensified [2][15] 2. Week - on - Week Industry News Review - Ganfeng Lithium: The joint development of the PPGS lithium salt lake project with LAR in Argentina has made key progress, and the "Environmental Impact Assessment Report" has been obtained. The project plans to submit a large - scale investment promotion system application in the first half of 2026. The project has about 15.07 million tons of LCE proven + controlled resources, with a designed annual production capacity of about 150,000 tons of LCE, to be built in three phases [17]. - Brazil's lithium concentrate exports in October decreased by 85% month - on - month, mainly because Sigma Lithium, the largest lithium spodumene producer in the country, did not export during this period. However, exports this year have increased by about 54% year - on - year [17]. - Core Lithium has increased the ore reserves of Grants and cut the project's capital expenditure by 35 - 45 million Australian dollars. The revised plan also advances the production time of the first batch of ore and increases the Grants ore reserves by 33% [18]. - Rio Tinto has shelved its controversial Jadar lithium project in Serbia, which involves an investment of $2.95 billion and will enter the "maintenance" state [18]. - The pilot program for conditional exemption of road transportation of power and energy - storage lithium batteries has been officially launched, which will effectively release compliant transportation capacity and solve the contradiction between the "zero - inventory" production model and the shortage of transportation capacity [19] 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Lithium Concentrate Spot is Strong - The spot price of lithium concentrate is strong, with the spot average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) reaching $1,006/ton on 11/14/25, a month - on - month increase of 8.5% [13][20] 3.2 Lithium Salt: Intensified Game of Resumption Disturbance - The game of resumption disturbance in the lithium salt market has intensified. Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 21,545 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11 tons, mainly contributed by salt lake production, while the production of mica and spodumene decreased marginally. The weekly inventory was 120,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,481 tons. The capacity utilization rate of salt factories is only 60%. After the increase in spodumene port inventory, domestic production is expected to increase marginally [2][15] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Ternary and Lithium Cobalt Oxide Continue to be Strong - Ternary and lithium cobalt oxide continue to be strong. In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50%. The prices of downstream intermediate products such as ternary materials and lithium cobalt oxide have shown an upward trend. For example, the spot average price of ternary material 523 increased by 4.4% month - on - month, and the spot average price of ternary material 622 increased by 9.5% month - on - month [10][13] 3.4 Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles in September Reached 50% - In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50%. The installed capacity of power batteries maintained high growth, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles also showed a good growth trend [10]

Group 1: Glass Market Analysis - The glass market has experienced several bullish trends over the past five years, with notable surges in April 2020, January 2022, November 2022, June 2023, April 2024, September 2024, and June 2025 [2] - Recent market dynamics indicate a significant increase in short positions, suggesting a challenging environment for a rapid reversal in market trends [7] - Current market conditions reflect a strong inventory pressure, leading to increased short positions in the futures market, which complicates the outlook for price recovery [6][7] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Market Insights - Lithium carbonate futures have surged to a high of 88,000 yuan, with a cumulative increase of over 20% since mid-October [8][9] - Demand for lithium carbonate is driven by a significant increase in orders from battery manufacturers, particularly in the energy storage sector, which has seen a rapid rise in consumption [9][11] - Despite high production levels, the market remains hot, with weekly production reaching historical highs, indicating a robust supply-demand balance [11][12] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - After a month of stagnation, silver prices have surged, with spot silver prices approaching $50, driven more by financial attributes than industrial demand [13][15] - The market is experiencing a "non-traditional squeeze," with significant movements in inventory across major exchanges, indicating unresolved supply-demand imbalances [14] - The silver leasing rate remains elevated, suggesting ongoing risks of a squeeze, with market participants awaiting developments in December [15] Group 4: Chinese Stock Market Outlook - The Chinese stock market is expected to attract over 6 trillion yuan from real estate and fixed income products, indicating a significant shift in capital allocation [17][20] - Domestic investors currently have a low allocation to stocks, with only 11% of their assets in equities, suggesting substantial room for growth in stock market participation [20] - The trend of capital migration towards stocks is supported by increasing allocations from both individual and institutional investors, with notable inflows from southbound capital [29] Group 5: Futures Market Selection Criteria - The selection of futures contracts should focus on those with high trading volumes and domestic pricing power, avoiding those with low liquidity or foreign control [21][22] - Key commodities for trading include black series products like rebar and glass, which have shown significant volatility and trend continuation potential [25][39] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of identifying commodities with historical price extremes or prolonged consolidation periods, as these are likely to yield significant trading opportunities [30][31]

有色金属板块下跌，天齐锂业跌近5%，赣锋锂业跌超3%；此外，小鹏汽车跌超6%，宁德时代跌超4%。 编辑丨钉钉 | 11月14日，香港恒生指数收跌1.85%，本周累计上涨1.26%；恒生科技指数跌2.82%，本周累计跌0.42%。 | | --- | | 大型科网股普跌，百度集团跌超7%，京东集团跌超6%，阿里巴巴跌超4%，腾讯控股、小米集团、中芯国际、美团均跌超2%。 | | 中芯国际 | 73.500 | -2.78% | | --- | --- | --- | | 0981.HK | | | | ASMPT | 77.900 | -2.75% | | 0522.HK | | | | 商汤-W | 2.170 | -2.69% | | 0020.HK | | | | 小米集团-W | 42.360 | -2.62% | | 1810.HK | | | | 腾讯控股 | 641.000 | -2.29% | | 0700.HK | | | ...

Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Carbonate lithium futures' price and trading volume reached a new high this year, with strong capital gaming sentiment. The supply growth of carbonate lithium is minimal, and the high supply pressure earlier this year is easing. Demand is expected to remain strong, and with inventory depletion accelerating, the price of carbonate lithium is expected to continue rising [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium's weekly production reached 21,545 tons, a slight increase of 9 tons from last week, showing a clear peak signal. The production from spodumene and mica decreased, while that from salt lakes and recycling increased. With winter approaching, salt - lake production is expected to decline, so supply growth is minimal [10]. - On the demand side, the electrolyte price remained high and flat this week. The upstream's willingness to ship decreased, while the downstream's purchasing intention continued to rise. The price of 6F kept strengthening, and the supply - demand in the electrolyte field continued to tighten. The prices of cathode materials all rose, with the 6 - series ternary increasing by 4,000 yuan/ton and lithium iron phosphate by 920 - 1,060 yuan/ton. The new - energy vehicle market in both commercial and passenger segments grew rapidly, and the energy - storage market had strong supply and demand. Carbonate lithium demand is expected to remain good this year [10]. - The social inventory of carbonate lithium decreased by 3,481 tons this week, and the inventory depletion speed continued to accelerate. Supported by demand, the spot price of carbonate lithium is approaching the futures price, and the price is expected to keep rising [10]. 2. Industry News - Global second - largest miner Rio Tinto has shelved its controversial Jadar lithium project in Serbia, which involves an investment of $2.95 billion. The project has faced local community opposition, political protests, and slow permit approval. This move aligns with the new CEO's strategy of simplifying operations and cutting costs [13]. - The lawsuit between Tianqi Lithium and Chilean chemical and mining company SQM over the "public - private partnership" issue has progressed. On the evening of November 12, the local Chilean court rejected Tianqi Lithium's lawsuit. Tianqi Lithium said it will comprehensively evaluate and may take further actions [14].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The lithium mining industry is expected to see a significant increase in global production capacity, projected to rise by 400,000 tons to reach 1.9 million tons in 2026, marking the highest growth year. However, growth is anticipated to slow down starting in 2027 [1][3] - Despite ongoing capital expenditures from Chinese enterprises, investment willingness has decreased due to falling prices, leading to potential actual capacity releases being lower than expected [1][3] Supply Dynamics - The recent price increase in lithium carbonate is not expected to lead to a rapid release of supply elasticity. Even if prices exceed 100,000 yuan per ton, it may not be sufficient to stimulate the resumption of Australian projects, which require prices of at least 120,000 to 150,000 yuan to consider restarting [5] - The actual supply increment from CATL's resumption is limited, expected to add around 60,000 tons, which has already been factored into market expectations, thus not significantly impacting market pricing in the short term [6] Demand Drivers - Key demand drivers for lithium in 2026 are expected to be the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors. The demand for lithium batteries is projected to increase by approximately 250 GWh, with energy storage expected to grow by 50% to 60% year-on-year, potentially adding around 200,000 tons of lithium carbonate demand, which is about 10% of next year's supply [2][10] - Energy storage is becoming a long-term trend, supported by policy incentives and low borrowing rates, leading to sustained growth in demand for lithium carbonate [8][10] Price Forecast - Based on cost curve analysis, to support a demand of around 1.8 million tons, the average price of lithium carbonate needs to be at least 100,000 yuan per ton to meet market demand. It is expected that the average price in 2026 will be better than in 2025, with gradual improvements each subsequent year [9] Company Insights - Companies with potential in the lithium sector include: - **Dazhong Mining**: Planning a total production capacity of 130,000 tons by 2028-2029, potentially becoming a billion-level company [12] - **Guocheng Mining**: Expected to achieve a profit capacity of 2 billion yuan per year post-expansion [12] - **Tianqi Lithium**: Aiming for steady growth and potential asset acquisitions to enhance market position [14] - **Ganfeng Lithium**: Projecting self-owned production capacity to reach 140,000 to 150,000 tons by 2028 [15] Market Trends - The future development of the lithium carbonate sector is primarily driven by the growth in energy storage demand, with expectations that energy storage battery shipments will approach those of power batteries by 2027 and surpass them by 2028 [10] - Recent price increases in lithium carbonate are attributed to policy catalysts, discussions around electricity shortages, and significant order signings, leading to a more optimistic outlook for next year's demand [11] Conclusion - The lithium mining industry is poised for growth, driven by increasing demand from electric vehicles and energy storage, despite challenges in supply elasticity and investment sentiment. Companies with strong production capabilities and strategic expansions are likely to benefit in the evolving market landscape.