Core Insights - The 138th Canton Fair is currently taking place, attracting over 157,000 foreign buyers, significantly boosting inbound consumption [1] - Guangzhou Customs reported that from October 1 to October 20, the amount of tax refund applications at the Guangzhou port exceeded 27 million yuan, marking a 120% year-on-year increase, setting a historical record [1] Group 1: Impact of the Canton Fair - As one of the first pilot cities for tax refunds for foreign travelers, Guangzhou has nearly 800 tax refund stores, covering all 11 districts [3] - Many foreign buyers are taking advantage of the fair to shop in major commercial areas, with noticeable increases in foreign customer presence in shopping malls [3] Group 2: Sales and Consumer Behavior - A shopping mall manager reported a 30% increase in foreign customers since the fair began, with tax refund business growing over five times year-on-year [5] - Popular products among foreign customers include high-tech digital products, luxury watches, and trendy clothing, with digital products accounting for approximately 41% of sales [5] Group 3: Tax Refund Process Improvements - To enhance the development of outbound consumption, Guangzhou Customs has launched a "one order, one package" convenience service for tax refunds, improving efficiency by about 70% [7] - From October 1 to October 20, Guangzhou Customs verified 3,500 tax refund applications, with amounts exceeding 27 million yuan, representing year-on-year increases of nearly 7.5 times and 1.2 times, respectively [9]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market indices showed a slight narrowing of gains in the afternoon but maintained an overall upward trend, continuing the rebound from the previous day [1] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,027.55, up 0.65%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 0.76% to 9,302.66, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.26% to 6,007.94 [2] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks experienced a collective narrowing of gains, with Alibaba rising by 2%, while JD, Tencent, and Baidu had gains within 0.7%. Meituan turned negative, and Xiaomi fell by 1.44% [2] - Apple stocks reached a historical high overnight, which positively impacted Apple-related stocks, with companies like Highpower International rising nearly 6% and Hongteng Precision and Lens Technology increasing by 5% [2] - Semiconductor, insurance, paper, Chinese brokerage, and heavy machinery stocks maintained a generally upward trend despite a narrowing of gains in the afternoon [2] Other Notable Events - Gold and silver prices experienced significant corrections, leading to a decline in gold stocks, with China Silver Group dropping over 6% and Zijin Mining falling more than 4% [3] - Domestic retail, consumer electronics, gas, and coal stocks showed weak performance [3] - The debut of Jushuitan saw a substantial increase of 23.86%, with the Hong Kong public offering receiving nearly 1,953 times subscription [3]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market indices showed a slight narrowing of gains in the afternoon but maintained a strong upward trend, continuing the rebound from the previous day [1] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.65%, closing above 26,000 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 0.76%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index gained 1.26%, reaching 6,007 points [1] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks experienced a collective narrowing of gains in the afternoon, with Alibaba rising by 2%, while JD, Tencent, and Baidu had gains within 0.7%. Meituan turned negative, and Xiaomi fell by 1.44% [1] - Apple’s stock price reached a historical high overnight, which stimulated a collective rise in Apple-related stocks, with Gawe Electronics increasing by nearly 6%, and Hong Teng Precision and Lens Technology rising by 5% [1] - Semiconductor stocks, insurance stocks, paper stocks, Chinese brokerage stocks, and heavy machinery stocks maintained a generally upward trend despite narrowing gains in the afternoon [1] Commodity and Other Stocks - Gold and silver prices experienced significant corrections, leading to a decline in gold stocks, with China Silver Group dropping over 6% and Zijin Mining International falling over 4% [1] - Domestic retail stocks, consumer electronics concept stocks, gas stocks, and coal stocks showed weak performance [1] New Listings - The stock of Jushuitan surged by 23.86% on its first day of listing, with the Hong Kong public offering receiving nearly 1,953 times subscription [1]

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|商贸零售 受国补边际效应减弱、中秋假期错位等 影响，9 月社零增速放缓 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年10月21日 邓文慧 郭家玮 SAC：S0590522060001 SAC：S0590525030001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 4 证券研究报告 |报告要点 国家统计局发布社零数据，9 月份，社零总额为 4.20 万亿元，同比增长 3.0%。其中，除汽车 以外的消费品零售额为 3.73 万亿元，同比增长 3.2%；限额以上单位消费品零售额 1.78 万亿 元，同比增长 2.3%。 |分析师及联系人 行业研究|行业点评研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年10月21日 商贸零售 受国补边际效应减弱、中秋假期错位等影响， 9 月社零增速放缓 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 -10% 7% 23% 40% 2024/10 2025/2 2025/6 2025/10 商贸零售 沪深300 相关报告 1、《商贸零售：7 月社零同比+3.7%，环比有 所回落》2025.08.16 2、《商贸 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that China's retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with final consumption expenditure contributing 53.5% to economic growth, marking a 9 percentage point increase from the previous year [1] - The growth in consumer market size is attributed to effective consumption-boosting policies, including the issuance of 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support the replacement of old consumer goods [1] - The "old for new" policy has led to significant growth in retail sales of household appliances, cultural office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment, with over 8.3 million applications for vehicle replacements by September 10 [1] Group 2 - Service retail sales grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, outpacing goods retail sales by 0.6 percentage points, driven by policies aimed at expanding service consumption [2] - Online retail sales increased by 9.8% year-on-year, with a consistent acceleration in growth since May, indicating a strong shift towards e-commerce [2] - Despite the growth in retail sales, the increase in consumer goods retail sales was lower than the overall economic growth, suggesting a need to enhance consumer willingness to spend [2] Group 3 - Future strategies should focus on stabilizing and expanding employment, promoting sustained income growth, and enhancing consumer capacity and willingness [3] - There is a call for more systematic and comprehensive measures to stimulate domestic demand and release consumption potential, emphasizing the importance of confidence in economic stability [3] - The overall economic performance has exceeded expectations this year, highlighting the need for correct guidance of expectations among businesses and consumers to further boost consumption [3]

Core Insights - In September, Jiangsu's consumer prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with urban prices down 0.2% and rural prices down 0.6% [1] - The overall consumer price index for the first nine months of the year showed a decline of 0.4% year-on-year [1] Price Changes - Among the eight categories of goods and services, five experienced price increases while three saw declines in September [1] - Notable price increases included clothing (up 1.8%), daily necessities and services (up 3.0%), education, culture, and entertainment (up 1.1%), healthcare (up 2.3%), and other goods and services (up 11.3%) [1] - Conversely, food, tobacco, and alcohol prices decreased by 2.8%, housing prices fell by 0.2%, and transportation and communication prices dropped by 2.3% [1] Food Price Dynamics - Within the food category, freshwater fish prices rose by 5.0% and beef prices increased by 2.6% [1] - However, pork prices fell significantly by 17.6%, and egg prices dropped by 17.5% [1] - Fresh vegetables saw a decline of 12.8%, fresh mushrooms decreased by 5.6%, and fresh fruits fell by 2.9% [1] Month-on-Month Changes - In terms of month-on-month price changes for September, four categories saw price increases while three experienced declines and one remained stable [1] - Food, tobacco, and alcohol prices increased by 0.3%, clothing prices rose by 1.0%, daily necessities and services went up by 0.2%, and other goods and services increased by 1.7% [1] - On the other hand, housing prices decreased by 0.2%, transportation and communication prices fell by 0.9%, and education, culture, and entertainment prices dropped by 0.2% [1] - Healthcare prices remained unchanged [1]

备受全国商业界关注的胖东来，即将向外界敞开大门。记者获悉，胖东来商贸集团将自2025年11月1日起，正式推出"企业开放日"，面向企业分享其备受 推崇的经营理念与管理方法。 值得注意的是，此次开放日并非免费"取经"，其收费标准为每人20000元。 每月2场，每批次参访限15人 根据公布的方案，开放日活动定于每月10日与20日举办两场。为保证交流的深度与质量，每批次的参访人数被严格限制在15人以内，且同一家企业的预约 上限为5人；每月两场开放日合计参访人数不超过30人。 参访地点将覆盖胖东来旗下的产业园、天使城及时代广场等核心业态，让参与者能深入一线，直观感受其运营细节。另需注意，开放日如遇周二，将往后 顺延一日。 预约需审核，一年仅一次机会 想要获得这一学习机会，企业需要通过线上预约和资质审核。预约通道定于每月1日和11日上午10点开启，每批次最多报30人，企业需通过"胖东来商贸集 团"官方微信公众号进行信息填报，同一企业报名人数不超过5人。 胖东来方面将对报名企业进行审核，并在审核通过后进行电话沟通、签署合同及缴费。为保证机会的公平性，规定每人每年仅有一次参访机会。 胖东来称旨在带动共同进步 对于推出高门槛开 ...

Core Insights - The "i-person" label has evolved from representing introversion to embodying a lifestyle characterized by selective social engagement and prioritizing personal comfort and happiness [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The "one-person dining" market in China is projected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan by 2025, indicating a significant shift towards solo dining experiences [3] - The pet economy, particularly for cats, has surpassed 100 billion yuan, reflecting a growing trend of low-social-energy emotional connections among consumers [3] - The Chinese instant retail market is expected to reach 751.5 billion yuan by 2024 and surpass 1 trillion yuan by 2026, showcasing the demand for convenience and reduced social interaction [21][22] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly favoring low-pressure social interactions facilitated by online platforms, such as gaming companions and AI chatbots, which cater to the "i-person" preference for controlled social environments [5] - The rise of self-service retail and hotels aligns with the "i-person" desire for minimal interaction, with the self-service retail market projected to reach 128 billion yuan by 2024, growing at 40.2% year-on-year [12][15] - The surge in self-study rooms, with a 523.7% increase in registered businesses in 2023, highlights the demand for focused, undisturbed environments for learning [18][20] Group 3: Technological Integration - The global AR/VR market is expected to reach $39.7 billion by 2029, with China leading the growth at over 40%, indicating a strong preference for immersive, independent entertainment experiences among younger consumers [7][10] - AI applications, such as Saylo AI, are becoming essential tools for "i-persons," providing companionship and emotional support through interactive experiences [5][8] Group 4: Emotional and Psychological Aspects - The trend of collecting designer toys among younger generations serves as a form of emotional expression and connection, with the market expected to exceed 80 billion yuan by 2025 [10] - The "i-person" economy reflects a broader cultural shift towards valuing personal space, emotional well-being, and self-determination in consumer choices [23]

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Zhongbai's major shareholder, Zhu Renbao, has had 18.884 million shares put up for judicial auction due to a court ruling related to a market manipulation case involving Xu Xiang, with the auction concluding on October 21 at a price significantly below the market value [2][10]. Group 1: Auction Details - The auction for Zhu Renbao's shares was held on October 20, with a total of 18.884 million shares being auctioned, representing 8.42% of Ningbo Zhongbai's total share capital [2]. - The shares were sold for 270 million yuan, equating to 14.3 yuan per share, which is over 15% lower than the closing price of 17.13 yuan on the auction day [4][10]. - Only three bidders participated in the auction, with two actively bidding, indicating a lack of competitive interest [3][4]. Group 2: Company Background and Implications - Zhu Renbao is identified as the third-largest shareholder of Ningbo Zhongbai, and his shares were under judicial freeze due to a criminal case that has now entered the execution phase [2][10]. - The winning bidder, Hangzhou Jindi Commercial Management Co., Ltd., acquired the shares, which is controlled by Lu Sikan, who also has interests in the real estate sector [10][11]. - The real estate market is currently experiencing a downturn, yet Hangzhou Jindi has shown willingness to invest heavily, as evidenced by their recent acquisition of a prime land parcel in Hangzhou for 5.45 million yuan per square meter, reflecting a 21% premium [10].

Core Insights - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China from January to September 2025 increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with a growth of 3% in September [1][2] - The growth rates for tobacco and alcohol consumption from 2022 to 2024 are projected to be 2.3%, 10.6%, and 5.5% respectively [2] - Urban retail sales in September reached 35,783 billion yuan, growing by 2.9% year-on-year, while rural retail sales were 6,188 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.0% [2] Retail Performance - In the first nine months, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 316,838 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.4% for urban areas and 49,039 billion yuan for rural areas, with a growth of 4.6% [2] - In September, the retail sales of goods were 37,462 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, while the catering revenue was 4,509 billion yuan, growing by 0.9% [2] Retail Formats - From January to September, the retail sales growth rates for various retail formats were as follows: convenience stores at 6.4%, supermarkets at 4.4%, department stores at 0.9%, specialty stores at 4.8%, and brand exclusive stores at 1.5% [2]