请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 12 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 合约跌 1.23%至 92800 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价维持 92750 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价维持 90350 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）维持 81930 元/吨。仓单 方面，昨日仓单库存减少 200 吨至 12920 吨。 2. 供应端，周度产量环比增加 74 吨至 21939 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 120 吨至 13484 吨，锂云母 产量环比增加 55 吨至 3076 吨，盐湖提锂环比减少 145 吨至 3090 吨，回收料提锂环比增加 44 吨至 2289 吨；12 月碳酸锂产量预计环比增加 3%至 98210 吨，其中锂云母提锂、锂辉石提锂环比增加， 盐湖提锂、回收提锂环比下滑。需求端，周度三元材料产量环比减少 564 吨至 18697 吨，库存环比 减少 519 吨至 18842 吨；周度磷酸铁锂产量环比减少 233 吨至 95480 吨，库存环比减少 660 吨至 1036 ...

卡位布局投资机会 超120只基金冲刺年底发行 时至年末，新基金发行掀起小高潮，超120只基金正在或即将发行。从基金布局发力点看：一是面向高风险偏好投资者的权益类基金；二是聚焦稳健投资需 求的"固收+"产品。在业内人士看来，年末的发行热潮与新品的密集上报，既体现机构对当前市场机会的看好，亦是其对明年投资机会的卡位布局。（上海 证券报） 上市公司踊跃参设产业并购基金 今年以来，A股上市公司参与设立产业并购基金的热情持续高涨。同花顺iFinD数据显示，截至12月9日记者发稿，年内A股市场上市公司参与设立产业并购 基金达336只，预计募集规模上限合计达2790亿元。北京天驰君泰律师事务所上海分所合伙人孙军伟认为，上市公司积极参设产业并购基金，有助于发现、 培育优质标的，为上市公司在目标行业的扩张或发展进行资产储备。（证券日报） 瞄准中国科技股 全球资金寻找AI"新战场" 为应对市场集中度过高以及高估值带来的风险，不少国际资金已将目光瞄准美国之外的AI赛道。其中，中国科技股以其独特的产业基础、增长潜力和市场 多元化优势，成为部分全球资本进行战略布局与分散风险的重点目标。景顺集团首席投资总监马磊透露，目前已有南美大型基金 ...

Group 1: Robotics Industry - A surge of robotics companies is seeking to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with many having submitted multiple applications [1] - Most of these companies show poor performance in their financial results, indicating a challenging market environment [1] - The industry is characterized by intense competition, with a trend of increasing rivalry noted in the listing materials [1] - Successful listings include companies like Sanhua Intelligent Controls and Junsen Electronics, but only those with strong technology patents, profit margins, and cash flow are expected to thrive [1] Group 2: Copper Market - Global concerns over copper supply shortages have led to a rise in international copper prices, reaching historical highs [2] - Despite a recent pullback in prices, the copper industry remains active, with strong demand from sectors like renewable energy and power grid construction [2] - Analysts predict that copper prices will maintain high levels in the medium to long term due to robust downstream demand and supply-side disruptions [2] Group 3: AI Glasses Market - The AI glasses market is rapidly evolving, with significant participation from tech giants, automotive companies, and startups [3] - The AI glasses theme index has increased by 9.81% since November 24, with a majority of trading days showing gains [3] - The market is seeing a shift towards consumer acceptance, driven by technological advancements and increasing demand [3] Group 4: Order Backlogs in Listed Companies - Nearly 200 listed companies have reported strong order backlogs, indicating a positive industry outlook [4] - Key sectors with high demand include machinery, electronics, and power equipment, with some companies' order schedules extending to 2029 [4] Group 5: New Energy Vehicle Tax Policy - The upcoming adjustment in the new energy vehicle purchase tax is expected to drive a surge in market activity as consumers rush to make purchases before the policy change [5] - The maximum tax exemption will be reduced from 30,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan per vehicle starting next year [5] - This shift is anticipated to transition the market focus from policy-driven to value-driven competition, emphasizing technology, cost, and service [5] Group 6: Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery supply chain is experiencing a significant increase in long-term contracts, with total order values soaring [6] - This new wave of long-term agreements is characterized by larger scales, deeper commitments, and a focus on supply chain security and compliance [6] Group 7: Institutional Research in the North Exchange - The North Exchange has seen a surge in institutional research interest, with over 272 companies being covered [7] - Key areas of focus include robotics, low-altitude economy, 6G, quantum technology, and AI glasses [7] Group 8: Commercial Real Estate REITs - The imminent launch of commercial real estate REITs is generating significant market interest, with many companies preparing to submit applications [8] - The REITs market is expected to enhance the efficiency of capital allocation in the real estate sector, potentially activating a trillion-yuan market [8] Group 9: AI Intelligent Agents Market - The AI intelligent agents market is witnessing explosive growth, with average stock price increases exceeding 25% this year [9] - Notable stocks have seen significant gains, with some doubling in value, and financing balances for these stocks have increased by nearly 45% compared to the previous year [9] Group 10: Shareholder Buyback Plans - A total of 768 listed companies have announced significant shareholder buyback plans this year, reflecting confidence in their fundamentals [10] Group 11: M&A Fund Establishment - There is a growing trend of listed companies establishing industrial merger and acquisition funds, with 336 funds set up this year [11] - The total expected fundraising for these funds is projected to reach 279 billion yuan, indicating strong interest in identifying and nurturing quality targets [11]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View On December 9, 2025, the price of lithium carbonate slightly declined. The futures market showed a downward trend, the spot market was volatile, the negative basis strengthened, the registered warehouse receipts decreased, and the support from the energy storage field for prices weakened marginally [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract LC2605.GFE was 92,800 yuan/ton, down 2,040 yuan/ton (-2.15%) from the previous day, and down 3,760 yuan/ton compared to five trading days ago. The settlement price was 93,580 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton from the previous day and 2,800 yuan/ton from five trading days ago [4][6]. - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The prices of various lithium ores such as Australian, Brazilian, and other countries' CIF China lithium spodumene concentrates increased slightly compared to the previous day, but decreased compared to five trading days ago. The prices of lithium mica remained unchanged from the previous day but decreased compared to five trading days ago [6]. - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric-grade lithium carbonate was 92,710 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day but down 1,750 yuan/ton compared to five trading days ago. The price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide was 81,890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day but down 730 yuan/ton compared to five trading days ago [6]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of most downstream products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and electrolytes remained unchanged from the previous day and five trading days ago [6]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: Charts showed the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and lithium hydroxide - lithium carbonate price difference [8]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: Charts presented the price changes of manganese - acid lithium, domestic iron - phosphate lithium, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [10][14]. - **Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: Charts showed the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of the lithium carbonate main contract [16][17].

Group 1 - The article provides an overview of the current prices of various battery materials, indicating slight increases in some categories and decreases in others, reflecting market dynamics [1] - Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) electrolyte prices are reported at 34,750 CNY/ton, up by 500 CNY/ton, a 1.5% increase, while ternary power prices are at 36,500 CNY/ton, also up by 500 CNY/ton, a 1.4% increase [1] - Additive prices show a similar trend, with battery-grade FEC at 74,000 CNY/ton, up by 1.4%, and battery-grade VC at 181,000 CNY/ton, up by 0.6% [1] Group 2 - Precursor prices indicate a rise in cobalt oxide to 310,000 CNY/ton, up by 2,500 CNY/ton, a 0.8% increase [1] - Lithium hexafluorophosphate is priced at 173,000 CNY/ton, up by 500 CNY/ton, a 0.3% increase, while domestic lithium hydroxide is at 81,930 CNY/ton, down by 200 CNY/ton, a 0.2% decrease [1] - Carbonate prices show a decline, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate at 90,350 CNY/ton, down by 400 CNY/ton, a 0.5% decrease, and battery-grade lithium carbonate at 92,750 CNY/ton, down by 500 CNY/ton, also a 0.5% decrease [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [2][31]. Core Insights - The demand for power and energy storage lithium batteries is growing, with significant increases in production and stable material prices observed [2][5]. - In November 2025, domestic battery production reached 170.6 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 50.84% and a month-on-month increase of 12.83% [2]. - The production of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode materials in November 2025 was 268,900 tons, up 29.43% year-on-year and 0.75% month-on-month, with a capacity utilization rate of 62.53% [2]. - The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate as of November 28, 2025, was 90,900 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly decrease of 0.55% [2]. - The average price of LFP (power type) remained stable at 39,100 CNY/ton as of November 28, 2025 [2]. - The demand for LFP batteries in October 2025 reached a monthly shipment of 67.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 43.62% [2]. - The export volume of Chinese power batteries in October 2025 was 19.4 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 79.63% [2]. Summary by Sections Production - In November 2025, the production of cathode materials showed a year-on-year increase, with significant growth in battery production compared to the same period in 2024 [2][3]. Prices - The prices of key raw materials for lithium batteries have stabilized, with notable price points for lithium carbonate, LFP, and lithium hexafluorophosphate [2][3]. Domestic Demand - The domestic demand for lithium batteries is robust, with new energy storage projects showing increased tender capacity compared to 2024 [2][3]. Overseas Demand - The overseas demand is also strong, with significant increases in exports of power batteries and global new energy vehicle sales [2][3].

中信建投财富管理公众号发文，从基本面、政策面、资金面、估值面、技术面五个角度分析当前A股的 状态，并表示十分期待跨年行情。 1. 基本面：还未明显好转。 2. 政策面：逆周期政策仍在持续发力。 中共中央政治局12月8日会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切 实提升宏观经济治理效能。 3. 资金面：增量资金正在陆续进场。除了险资和量化私募之外，A股目前已 呈现出增量资金多点开花的局面，比如个人投资者、国资、北向资金等等。 4. 估值面：市场向上或仍 有空间。截至2025年12月8日，万得全A的风险溢价为54.01%，仍处于机会值之上。当前阶段A股的整 体估值仍处于可以接受的阶段。 5. 技术面：在两波上升浪的推动下， 上证指数已突破2007年和2015年 的高点的连线。按照技术分析的理解，此压力线或将成为本轮行情有效的支撑线。 落实到投资策略， 该机构提出三个tips：(1)弹性维度：成长优于红利；(2)行业维度：科技(海外 算力、 消费电子、端侧、 机器人、 游戏、国内算力)+锂电( 固态 ...

Group 1: Energy Storage - In November, domestic energy storage completed a total of 10GW/29.7GWh in bidding, with independent storage projects accounting for 90% of the total. The average bid price for 2/4h systems was 0.594/0.494 CNY/Wh, showing a slight decrease compared to October. It is expected that independent storage bidding will maintain a good level in 2026, supported by the development of the industry and a complete revenue model through energy, capacity, and ancillary service markets [4] - The logic for overseas energy storage continues to evolve, with the overall electricity shortage in the U.S. remaining unchanged. Future technological advancements are expected to be a key focus, with attention on overseas storage and SST opportunities. Demand for energy storage in non-U.S. countries is also anticipated to rise, such as in Middle Eastern data centers and Ukraine's reconstruction efforts [4] Group 2: Hydrogen and Ammonia - The Jilin Provincial Ecological Environment Department has accepted the environmental impact report for a project by Liao Yuan Tian Yi Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd., which aims to produce 180,000 tons of green methane annually. This project is part of the "wind-solar-storage-hydrogen-ammonia integration" series under a government framework agreement. The hydrogen and ammonia sector is expected to gain more investment due to dual benefits from China's future industries and the EU's carbon tariff in 2026 [5] Group 3: Lithium Battery - Production in December is expected to remain stable, with demand anticipated to improve in January. The market is currently negotiating on the demand side regarding domestic energy storage bidding expectations for 2026, while also monitoring the sales of new energy vehicles. On the supply side, the lithium battery industry is experiencing a "reverse involution" logic, establishing a trend of supply-demand improvement. Short-term expectations for lithium hexafluorophosphate are already high, and various segments are gradually entering long-term contract signing phases. Mid-term investment opportunities should focus on lithium mines with significant supply variability and membrane segments where profitability does not support expansion [6]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Tianqi Materials has doubled this year, prompting some executives to consider selling shares, while the controlling shareholder has committed to not selling shares for the next six months to stabilize the stock price [1][13]. Group 1: Executive Shareholding and Reduction Plans - Executives including Vice Chairman Xu Sanshan and Vice General Manager Gu Bin plan to reduce their holdings by a total of 924,000 shares within three months after the announcement [1][9]. - Historical data shows that Tianqi Materials' executives have frequently reduced their holdings, with reductions occurring almost annually before 2022, which paused due to industry downturns [1][11]. - The planned reductions are relatively small compared to the total shares held by the executives, but they still represent significant income for the executives given the current stock price [9][12]. Group 2: Market and Industry Dynamics - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, a key material for electrolytes, has surged from 61,000 yuan/ton in September to 180,000 yuan/ton by December 8, marking a 195% increase in the fourth quarter [2]. - Tianqi Materials is the largest producer of lithium hexafluorophosphate and the leading seller of electrolytes, which has led to improved profit expectations [4]. - Analysts have raised profit forecasts for Tianqi Materials, with some projecting a net profit of 5.2 billion yuan for the fourth quarter, driven by the improved market conditions [4][5]. Group 3: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - The stock price of Tianqi Materials reached a peak of 49.78 yuan in mid-November, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 153% [5]. - Following significant price increases, the stock has seen a correction, dropping to around 39.8 yuan by December 8, indicating potential market volatility [7]. - The overall lithium battery electrolyte index has approached its peak from 2021, suggesting a cyclical high in the market [7].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 (10th) Qidian Lithium Battery Industry Annual Conference and Lithium Battery Golden Ding Award Ceremony aims to summarize the past decade of the lithium battery industry and explore the future development cycle, focusing on new materials, technologies, and industry ecosystems [1]. Event Background and Significance - The Qidian Lithium Battery Industry Annual Conference is a flagship event that has been held for nine consecutive years, attracting over 1,000 participants annually from the entire lithium battery supply chain [1]. - The theme for the 2025 event is "New Cycle, New Technology, New Ecology," which will facilitate in-depth discussions on industry trends and innovations [1]. Event Details - Event Name: 2025 (10th) Qidian Lithium Battery Industry Annual Conference and Lithium Battery Golden Ding Award Ceremony - Date: December 18-19, 2025 - Location: Venus Royal Hotel, Shenzhen - Scale: Over 1,200 offline participants and 30,000 online viewers [1][3]. Highlights of the Event - The event will feature leading companies and emerging enterprises in the battery sector, with over 60 prominent speakers discussing core issues and technological breakthroughs [3]. - The 10th Lithium Battery Golden Ding Award will be held concurrently to recognize outstanding contributions to the industry [3]. - The event will include nine specialized forums covering various topics related to lithium batteries and energy storage [3]. Special Sessions and Topics - The agenda includes sessions on cylindrical battery technology, battery innovation, and new materials, with participation from various industry leaders [5][6]. - Key topics will address the latest trends in user-side energy storage and battery technology, including the release of global industry white papers [7]. Golden Ding Award Overview - The Golden Ding Award is an annual evaluation of outstanding brands in the new energy battery industry, aimed at promoting innovation and sustainable development [9]. - The 2025 awards will include categories such as battery technology innovation, energy storage technology, and contributions to the lithium battery industry [11]. Registration and Participation - Registration for the event is priced at 2,888 yuan per person, which includes access to the conference, meals, and industry white papers [12].