Group 1 - China produces 70% of the world's rare earths, having shut down over 300 small and scattered rare earth factories in the past five to six years, which reflects a significant environmental and geopolitical strategy [1][4] - The closure of these factories was driven by the need to combat severe environmental pollution and to consolidate the industry, with only two major companies, China Rare Earth Group and Northern Rare Earth, now controlling 90% of the mining quotas [4][6] - Technological advancements have been made, such as the use of biological purification techniques that reduce wastewater toxicity by 90%, and a traceability system that tracks the production of rare earth elements from mines to final products [4][6] Group 2 - The military significance of rare earths is highlighted, with the F-35 fighter jet requiring 417 kg of rare earths, and the U.S. facing challenges due to China's control over high-purity rare earth production [6][8] - Western countries, particularly the U.S. and Japan, are increasingly concerned about their reliance on Chinese rare earths, as evidenced by Tesla's additional expenditure of $2.6 billion for neodymium-iron-boron magnets and Japan's stockpiling of dysprosium [8] - The closure of small factories is portrayed as a strategic move by China to assert control over the rare earth supply chain, shifting from being a low-cost supplier to a leader in technology and environmental standards [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy Index (932037) has shown mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with a slight overall decline of 0.11% as of June 16, 2025, while specific companies like China Rare Earth (000831) and China Aluminum (601600) experienced gains [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF (561790) increased by 0.09%, with a latest price of 1.07 yuan and a turnover rate of 8.11%, amounting to 3.99 million yuan in trading volume [1] - The ETF's average daily trading volume over the past week was 6.88 million yuan, ranking it first among comparable funds [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Xiangcai Securities suggests focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies due to improved supply-demand dynamics, driven by expectations of supply contraction and relaxed export controls [1] - The Ministry of Commerce has approved a certain quantity of rare earth-related export applications, indicating potential short-term benefits for companies in the magnetic materials sector [1] Group 3: ETF Performance Metrics - The latest size of the Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF reached 49.28 million yuan, marking a one-month high [2] - Since its inception, the ETF has achieved a maximum monthly return of 10.03% and a longest consecutive monthly gain of 7 months, with an overall annualized return of 100% [2] - The ETF's maximum drawdown this year was 7.91%, with a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10%, the lowest among comparable funds [2] Group 4: Top Holdings - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy Index accounted for 51.1% of the index, with Longjiang Power (600900) being the largest at 10.48% [3][5]

Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - The Trump administration is considering reducing tariffs on China while hoping for China to lift restrictions on rare earth exports, indicating a potential shift in U.S.-China trade relations [1] - Following the imposition of a 145% tariff on Chinese goods, China retaliated with a 125% tariff on U.S. exports, escalating trade tensions significantly [4][6] - U.S. industry associations have urged the Trump administration to reconsider the tariffs, citing negative impacts on American businesses and consumers [4][6] Group 2: Rare Earth Elements - China dominates the global rare earth market, supplying approximately 80% of the world's rare earth elements, which are critical for various U.S. industries, including military and technology [1][3] - The U.S. has been seeking to reduce its dependence on Chinese rare earths, but establishing a competitive domestic supply chain poses significant challenges [1][3] - China's recent export controls on certain rare earth elements have raised concerns in the U.S. about potential supply disruptions in key industries [3] Group 3: Economic Impact - High tariffs have led to increased costs for American consumers and businesses, particularly those reliant on Chinese materials, resulting in potential layoffs and production cuts [6] - The ongoing tariff situation may contribute to a slowdown in U.S. economic growth and could lead to inflationary pressures if maintained [6] - The urgency for the Trump administration to adjust tariffs is underscored by the economic strain felt across various sectors [6]

Group 1 - The article highlights China's dominance in the rare earth supply chain, which has shifted the balance of power in trade negotiations in favor of China [1][3] - Recent diplomatic communications from Japan, South Korea, and EU countries have focused on the keyword "rare earth" due to China's export control measures on seven types of rare earth elements [3][4] - China's rare earth separation technology has significantly improved, allowing the country to control over 60% of global rare earth production and 92% of refined rare earth compounds as of 2023 [7][10] Group 2 - The article discusses the historical context of China's rare earth industry, including the strategic value emphasized by Deng Xiaoping and the technological advancements made by Xu Guangxian [4][5][6] - The impact of China's export controls on global rare earth prices is illustrated by the dramatic price increases observed from 2009 to 2011, where prices for certain rare earth oxides surged by up to 26 times [12] - The current export control system requires foreign companies to provide detailed operational and product information to obtain export licenses, which is seen as a strategic move to ensure that rare earths do not enter military applications [13][15][18] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the critical role of rare earth elements in modern technology, particularly in military and automotive applications, highlighting the dependency of the U.S. on Chinese rare earth supplies [22][24] - The challenges faced by global companies, including those in India and Europe, due to China's export controls are discussed, with reports of potential production halts [26][27] - The article concludes that the restructuring of the rare earth supply chain is a long-term process, and current U.S. efforts to reduce dependency on Chinese supplies have not yet succeeded [30][31]

我问你个问题：稀土这玩意儿，到底是谁的底牌？ 不是谁家有矿就能端起桌子说话的。最近巴西又被推上风口浪尖，说是想取代中国，接手给美国供稀土的活。我一开始也挺好奇，翻了好几份资料，结果 看完只想说一句：理想很丰满，现实是真骨感。 先看这事怎么起的。美国最近对中国稀土出口设限一事有点紧张，尤其军用级中重稀土的供给，几乎全靠中国。拜登又不能公开说咱离不开中国，就拐弯 抹角找替代。卢拉这边刚好也眼热，觉得自己坐拥全球第二大稀土储量，总得捞点大的。但你仔细一看就会发现，这个第二，光听着响，实际掏出来根本 不够看。 美国地质调查局2024年初发布的报告里写得很明白：巴西确实有稀土，约2100万吨，但大头是轻稀土。而美国真正焦虑的是中重稀土，比如铽、镝、钇这 些，在航天、军工、芯片里的地位几乎不可替代。这类元素，全球90%以上的精炼量来自中国。你说你想取代谁？得先看看自己兜里有没有那几样货吧。 我不怀疑巴西的野心，也理解它的机会主义思路，毕竟拉美不少国家都在中美之间找战略模糊位置。但稀土这事真不是靠几句外交辞令就能改局的。产业 链这东西，越底层越难动，根扎得太深。中国就是靠这种难啃的工程积累，才有了如今的卡位优势。 回头再想 ...

--鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：39 分（较冷） 最近一年大盘走势 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 2025 年 06 月 16 日 双融日报 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较冷） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 39 分，市场情绪处于"较冷"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：稀土、机器人、减肥药 1、稀土主题：稀土是镧系元素和钪、钇共十七种金属元 素的总称。稀土永磁材料是现在已知的综合性能最高的一种 永磁材料。稀土在工业和新材料领域举足轻重的地位，各国 将它作为一种战略储备资源；中国稀土产业世界第一。相关 标的：中国稀土（000831）、金力永磁（300748） 2、机器人主题：据"中科院之声"消息，中国科学院沈 阳自动化研究所日前研发了一套"刚柔耦合"的下肢多关节 康复外骨骼机器人，有望为下肢偏瘫患者提供运动功能重建 与行为辅助服务。结果显示，该研究方法有效实现了运动学 重塑、步态模式自然性与 ...

Core Insights - The Rare Earth New Materials Technology Innovation Center has achieved breakthroughs in 11 key technologies in areas such as magnetic materials, rare earth optical functional materials, and bio-metallurgy [1][2] - A new fabric containing rare earth elements has been developed, which can lower the perceived temperature by 3-5 degrees Celsius in hot weather, showcasing the practical application of rare earth materials in textiles [1] - The center has established a pilot production line for a new type of AI disc motor, which utilizes innovative axial motor magnetic barrier technology, indicating a shift in domestic motor technology [2] Group 1 - The Rare Earth New Materials Technology Innovation Center is a key platform for accelerating the construction of "two rare earth bases" in Baotou, focusing on innovation [1] - The center's fabric, "Rare Silk Ice Protection Masterbatch," has a cooling contact value of 0.22, providing instant and sustained cooling effects [1] - The technology developed for thermal management fabrics includes features such as light heat storage, far-infrared, heat insulation, and UV shielding, applicable in various products [1] Group 2 - The center has partnered with Quanzhou Equipment Manufacturing Research Institute and a German expert team to build a pilot production line for 500,000 milliwatt disc motors [2] - The new AI disc motor is designed to be ultra-thin (6mm) and lightweight, with significant potential for import substitution in consumer electronics and new energy vehicles [2] - Since its establishment in February 2023, the center has gathered 4 academicians, over 300 researchers, and initiated 43 research projects, resulting in 32 patents [2]

盘前要闻 1、伊以冲突持续！特朗普称美国"有可能"介入，国际油价早盘巨震 类型：宏观 情绪影响：负面 上周五晚间国常会提出，构建房地产发展新模式，对于促进房地产市场平稳、健康、高质量发展具有重 要意义；要扎实有力推进"好房子"建设，纳入城市更新机制加强工作统筹，在规划、土地、财政、金融 等方面予以政策支持，更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。 3、5月金融数据出炉："活钱"增多M1增速明显上升，企业提款意愿明显增加 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 央行数据显示，5月末广义货币(M2)余额325.78万亿元，同比增长7.9%。狭义货币(M1)余额108.91万亿 元，同比增长2.3%。融资规模存量为426.16万亿元，同比增长8.7%。专家表示，社融规模增长较快，主 要受政府债券和企业债券等直接融资拉动。 4、A股多个重要指数调整今日实施，蓝色光标、长盈精密等股纳入创业板指 类型：公司 伊以冲突已持续三天，紧张局势仍未得到缓和。以总理表示，如伊朗放弃核计划，以色列愿停止行动； 特朗普表示，美国没有参与以色列对伊朗的军事打击，但以后"有可能"会介入。WTI原油周一开盘涨超 6%，随后涨幅有所收窄。 2、国常会：构建房地产 ...

Domestic Economic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics of China will release May economic operation data, including industrial production, energy production, fixed asset investment, real estate development and sales, and retail sales [3][4] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets will see nearly 40 billion yuan worth of restricted shares unlocked this week, with a total of 28.28 billion shares being released [5][6] Interest Rate Decisions - The People's Bank of China will announce the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) for June [4][8] - Multiple central banks, including those of Japan, Canada, and the UK, will announce their latest interest rate decisions this week [4][5] Oil Price Adjustments - The next round of oil price adjustments in China will officially begin on June 17, with expectations of a price increase due to rising international crude oil prices [8] Upcoming Events - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum and the 2025 Data Intelligence Conference will be held this week, focusing on global economic changes and financial cooperation [9][10]

Group 1 - The core issue in the US-China negotiations revolves around rare earth elements, with ordinary rare earths being discussed, but military-grade rare earths remain contentious [1][3][12] - The US has not committed to supplying advanced chips to China, citing potential military applications, while China has not agreed to provide military-grade rare earths to the US [3][12][14] - China has agreed to expedite the approval process for non-military rare earth exports to US producers, but with limitations on quantity and time [8][9][12] Group 2 - The distinction between light and heavy rare earths is crucial, with China controlling heavy rare earths that are essential for various industries, including semiconductors and electric vehicles [5][12][14] - The US is heavily reliant on China for heavy rare earths, particularly for military applications, which poses a strategic challenge for the US defense sector [9][12][14] - The negotiations have not resolved the underlying tensions, and both countries are still in a state of strategic standoff, with China gaining more leverage in the current situation [19][21]