Core Viewpoint - In April, foreign investors' holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds experienced a slight decline for the first time in five months, dropping from a record high of $9.049 trillion in March to $9.013 trillion, indicating that despite the impact of President Trump's erratic tariff policies, there has not been a significant sell-off [1]. Group 1 - Foreign investors' holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds decreased for the first time in five months [1]. - The decline in holdings was from a historical high of $9.049 trillion to $9.013 trillion [1]. - The sell-off observed was described as relatively mild, according to Zachary Griffiths from Credit Sights [1]. Group 2 - The decline in foreign holdings occurred after the announcement of tariffs on April 2, which led to fluctuations in the stock market and the U.S. dollar [1]. - Concerns about a large-scale sell-off of U.S. Treasuries appear to be unfounded based on the data [1].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remained stable at 4.3909% during the late trading session on June 18, with intraday trading ranging between 4.4087% and 4.3377%, exhibiting a V-shaped trend [1] Group 1 - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 1.04 basis points, settling at 3.9414%, and later slightly increased to 3.9561%, marking a new daily high [1] - Following the release of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision statement and economic projections (SEP) at 02:00 Beijing time, the 2-year yield plummeted to 3.8824%, reaching a new daily low, before narrowing its losses [1]

市场分析：美联储下一个可能降息的窗口将是9月 金十数据6月19日讯，分析师Matthias Scheiber表示，由于围绕关税的不确定性持续存在，美国劳动力市 场依然强劲，美联储对利率采取了普遍预期的"观望"态度。从我们的角度来看，美联储下一个可能降息 的窗口将是9月。我们预计，如果通胀率继续降至2.0%的目标，美联储今年可能会降息两次。"我们预 计股市表现将继续波动，并继续青睐美国股市、国际股票和新兴市场股票的低价部分，因为估值更好， 更多的财政和货币刺激可能会到来，以及一些美国大型股的估值更高。""鉴于整体收益率仍具吸引力， 我们对高质量债券的前景依然看好。" ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the bid-to-cover ratio for the 4-month U.S. Treasury auction held on June 18 was 2.88, a decrease from the previous value of 2.96 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The German bond market experienced a decline in yields across various maturities, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and potential market adjustments [1] Group 1: Yield Movements - The yield on the 10-year German government bond fell by 3.9 basis points, reaching a daily low of 2.496% [1] - The 2-year German bond yield decreased by 2.6 basis points, settling at 1.842%, with intraday trading between 1.876% and 1.842% [1] - The 30-year German bond yield dropped by 4.2 basis points, hitting a daily low of 2.943% [1] Group 2: Yield Spread - The spread between the 2-year and 10-year German bond yields narrowed by 0.999 basis points, reported at +65.230 basis points [1]

Group 1 - The winning bid rate for U.S. Treasury auctions for the four weeks ending June 18 is 4.06%, a slight decrease from the previous value of 4.08% [1]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 陆家嘴论坛后，宽松交易或延续 2025 年 6 月 18 日上午，第十五届陆家嘴论坛开幕。2024 年陆家嘴论坛央行行 长发表关于当前的货币政策立场和未来货币政策框架的相关表态，其后货币政 策框架改革加速推进，故市场对于本次论坛内容较为关注。本文主要回顾 2019 年以来历次会议央行领导的主题发言内容以及债券市场表现。 陆家嘴论坛央行行长讲话回顾 回顾 2019 年以来央行行长的演讲的内容，2019-2020 年：会议主要聚焦上海 "五个中心"定位。2021-2023 年：议题转向绿色金融与普惠金融等，会议主 题呼应"双碳"目标与小微实体支持。2024 年：议题聚焦货币政策框架改革， 推动货币政策实现了数量型和价格型调控并行向以价格型调控为主导、以利率 为核心的货币政策框架转变。 2025 年：本次会议演讲围绕全球金融治理展开。值得关注的是，央行领导在 全球金融稳定体系所面临的挑战中重点提及非银行中介机构的监管仍然薄弱 的问题，关注非银机构的杠杆水平变化以及后续监管落实。 历史陆家嘴论坛后的收益率表现 从债市表现看，由于历次论坛央行领导表态多与绿色发展、国际合作、金融开 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is speculating on the inclusion of short- and medium-term government bonds in the reserve requirement, and there are high expectations for the central bank to restart government bond trading in the second half of the year [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On June 18, government bond yields mostly rebounded after a significant decline, driven by improved sentiment in the bond market due to macroeconomic fundamentals and expectations of loose monetary policy [2][3]. - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.09% and the 10-year main contract falling by 0.01% [2]. Group 2: Speculation on Policy Changes - There is ongoing debate regarding the inclusion of short-term government bonds in the reserve requirement, with uncertainty about its implementation and timing [3]. - Analysts suggest that the best window for the central bank to restart government bond trading is expected in the second half of the year, particularly in the third quarter [3][4]. Group 3: Economic and Funding Conditions - The market anticipates that the central bank will restart bond purchases due to significant upcoming maturities of interbank certificates of deposit and increased buying of short-term bonds by major banks [4][5]. - Recent actions by the central bank, including multiple announcements of reverse repos, indicate a supportive stance towards the funding environment, which has contributed to a recovery in the overall leverage in the bond market [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The sentiment in the bond market is currently optimistic, with expectations of continued support from the central bank and a potential increase in net financing of government bonds in the third quarter [4][5]. - However, some analysts caution that the space for further declines in bond yields may be limited, particularly for the 10-year government bond yield, which faces resistance in the range of 1.5% to 1.6% [5].

Core Viewpoint - The development of technology innovation is accelerating, with the introduction of science and technology innovation bond ETFs (科创债ETF) being a key initiative to support this growth [1]. Group 1: Introduction of 科创债ETF - On June 18, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), Wu Qing, announced plans to accelerate the development of 科创债 and launch 科创债ETF [1]. - Ten leading fund companies, including 富国, 景顺长城, 南方, 嘉实, 招商, 广发, 易方达, 鹏华, 华夏, and 博时, have submitted applications for 科创债ETF on the same day [1]. Group 2: Index Tracking - Among the ten submitted 科创债ETF, six will track the 中证AAA科技创新公司债指数, three will follow the 上证AAA科技创新公司债指数, and one will track the 深证AAA科技创新公司债指数 [2]. - The differences among these indices lie in the selection of bond types and the organizations responsible for their compilation [3]. Group 3: Definition and Market Impact of 科创债 - 科创债 serves as a core tool in the bond market to support the national strategy for technological innovation [5]. - The issuers of 科创债 can include various types of technology innovation enterprises, and the issuance scale reached 1.23 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a 56.3% year-on-year increase [6]. Group 4: Advantages of 科创债ETF - 科创债ETF is viewed as a tool that offers trading convenience, low costs, and risk diversification, providing investors with an easy way to invest in high-grade technology innovation company bonds [7]. - The launch of 科创债ETF is expected to enrich the bond market investment tools and facilitate long-term capital entry, addressing the current scarcity of bond ETFs compared to stock ETFs [7].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield experienced a decline, indicating a downward trend in bond yields, particularly influenced by the upcoming retail sales data release [1] Group 1: Treasury Yields - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 5.94 basis points, closing at 4.3869%, and was in a downward trajectory throughout the day [1] - The yield reached a daily low of 4.3770% just before the release of U.S. retail sales data [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 1.88 basis points, settling at 3.9476%, with a trading range of 3.97749% to 3.9035% during the day [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - The release of retail sales data caused a sharp drop in the yields, which then rebounded slightly, coinciding with a brief uptick in U.S. stock markets [1]