美国联合包裹公司和联邦快递美股盘前上涨，原因是美国总统特朗普在其移动业务中将这些公司列为物 流合作伙伴。 ...

Emerging Markets Dynamics - Vietnam has officially joined the BRICS cooperation mechanism as a partner country, welcomed by the Brazilian government, which currently holds the rotating presidency of BRICS [1] - The BRICS partner countries now include Nigeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda, and Uzbekistan, expanding the total number of BRICS members to 11 [1] Financial Cooperation - The People's Bank of China and the Central Bank of Turkey have renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement with a scale of 350 billion RMB (approximately 189 billion Turkish Lira), effective for three years [2] - A memorandum of cooperation was signed to establish a RMB clearing arrangement in Turkey, enhancing financial cooperation and facilitating cross-border trade and investment [2] Platform Developments - TikTok announced an investment expansion in the UK to approximately £140 million (around 1.36 billion RMB), including the establishment of a new office in London and an increase in employee numbers to 3,000 [3] - TikTok Shop in Southeast Asia has relaxed entry policies for businesses, removing e-commerce experience requirements, allowing individual sellers to enter the market more easily [4] - TikTok Shop has launched a "Hot Product Takeoff Plan" in the US and Europe, providing various support resources to help merchants boost sales during the summer season [5] Industry Observations - Vietnam's commercial air conditioning market is projected to reach $600 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.9%, while the first quarter of 2025 is expected to see a market size of $123 million, growing by 13.9% [9] - In Indonesia, the commercial air conditioning market is expected to reach $218 million in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [10] - The Chinese mobile gaming industry accounted for 36.6% of global revenue in May 2025, with 33 Chinese companies making it to the top 100 global mobile game publishers [11] Shipping and Logistics - In the first five months of the year, Chinese shipbuilders secured 274 new ship orders, accounting for approximately 49% of the global market share, while global new ship orders have dropped to a near four-year low [12][13] - The demand for OLED display panels is expected to grow significantly, with a projected annual growth rate of 69% in 2025, driven by strong demand in the gaming sector [14] Policy Changes - Starting July 1, Vietnam will require e-commerce platforms to withhold and pay taxes on behalf of sellers, including VAT and personal income tax, with specific rates outlined for different types of transactions [21]

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 06 月 16 日 高频数据释放的政策信号 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 22 期） 频率：每周 进入 6 月，出口高频指标开始转弱，而房地产高频指标维持 2 季度以来弱势。 随着出口增速逐步放缓，叠加房地产销售降温，国内政策可能将继续加码，但 考虑到今年上半年增长形势好于去年前三季度，那么政策力度也不会超过去年 926 后的增量政策。 风险提示：地缘政治风险、国内政策落地不及预期、全球衰退及主要经济体货 币政策超预期。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《伊以冲突升级背后的美国 ———国际时政周评》2025-06- 15 2、《哪些因素可以提升市场风 险偏好—显微镜下的中国经济 （2025 年第 21 期）》2025-06- 11 3、《中美通话；特朗普政府内 部路线之争———国际时政周 评》2025-06-08 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 在此前的报告中，我们提到外贸和房地产高频 ...

Financial Sector - The banking sector continued its upward trend in the afternoon session, contributing positively to the FTSE China A50 Index [1] - China Life Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, and China Ping An reported market capitalizations of 385.19 billion, 351.05 billion, and 989.18 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.155 billion, 2.698 billion, and 1.079 billion [4] Alcohol Industry - Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye had market capitalizations of 1,786.68 billion, 210.10 billion, and 459.08 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 3.192 billion, 6.060 billion, and 1.760 billion [4] - Kweichow Moutai's stock price decreased by 4.66 (-0.33%), while Wuliangye increased by 1.12 (+0.65%) [4] Semiconductor Industry - Northern Huachuang, Haiguang Information, and Cambricon Technologies had market capitalizations of 220.29 billion, 249.45 billion, and 321.57 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.075 billion, 2.756 billion, and 2.048 billion [4] - Northern Huachuang's stock price fell by 7.35 (-1.22%) [4] Automotive Industry - BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Shanghai-Kunming High-Speed Railway had market capitalizations of 1,892.53 billion, 183.68 billion, and 281.32 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 3.509 billion, 0.627 billion, and 0.348 billion [4] - BYD's stock price decreased by 1.57 (-0.45%) [4] Energy Sector - COSCO Shipping Holdings, Sinopec, and China National Petroleum Corporation had market capitalizations of 716.56 billion, 1,650.85 billion, and 249.69 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.159 billion, 1.722 billion, and 1.019 billion [4] - Sinopec's stock price increased by 0.03 (+0.33%) [4] Coal Industry - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, China Shenhua Energy, and CATL had market capitalizations of 191.77 billion, 1,124.60 billion, and 775.67 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 3.014 billion, 0.922 billion, and 0.608 billion [4] - Shaanxi Coal's stock price decreased by 0.22 (-0.56%) [4] Food and Beverage Sector - China National Nuclear Power, Dongfang Fortune, and Haitian Flavoring had market capitalizations of 745.30 billion, 193.55 billion, and 343.42 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.574 billion, 0.521 billion, and 5.827 billion [5] - China National Nuclear Power's stock price decreased by 0.16 (-0.52%) [5] Consumer Electronics - Heng Rui Medicine, Industrial Fulian, and Luxshare Precision had market capitalizations of 355.01 billion, 421.40 billion, and 231.31 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 2.645 billion, 3.052 billion, and 2.100 billion [5] - Heng Rui's stock price increased by 0.32 (+1.53%) [5] Logistics Industry - Mindray Medical, SF Holding, and Wanhua Chemical had market capitalizations of 169.95 billion, 248.64 billion, and 286.88 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.343 billion, 0.896 billion, and 1.030 billion [5] - Mindray's stock price increased by 0.81 (+1.65%) [5] Telecommunications - Zijin Mining, China State Construction, and China Unicom had market capitalizations of 500.19 billion, 236.77 billion, and 164.76 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 2.515 billion, 0.784 billion, and 0.731 billion [5] - Zijin Mining's stock price decreased by 0.33 (-1.72%) [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of the national economic fundamentals from June 9th to June 13th, 2025, covering various aspects such as overall, production, demand, prices, inventory, transportation, and financing, and analyzes their trends and changes [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Total Index: Stable Fundamental High - Frequency Index - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 126.1 points (previous value: 126.0 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 5.1 points, and the year - on - year increase has expanded. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is long, with a signal factor of 5.0% (previous value: 5.4%) [9][11]. 3.2 Production: Decline in Electric Furnace and Polyester Operating Rates - The industrial production high - frequency index is 125.6 (previous value: 125.5), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 4.8 points, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The electric furnace operating rate is 62.8% (previous value: 64.7%); the polyester operating rate is 88.6% (previous value: 88.9%) [9][11][13]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales Turn Positive Year - on - Year - The commercial housing sales high - frequency index is 44.5 (previous value: 44.6), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5 points, and the year - on - year decrease remains unchanged. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 245,000 square meters (previous value: 213,000 square meters); the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 1.0% (previous value: 3.6%) [9][11][21]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Recovery of Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 118.4 (previous value: 118.1), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 points and a year - on - year increase of 1.9 points, and the year - on - year increase has expanded. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants is 31.5% (previous value: 31.3%) [9][11][33]. 3.5 Exports: Continuous Recovery of Export Container Freight Rate Index - The export high - frequency index is 144.3 (previous value: 144.3), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 5.8 points, and the year - on - year increase has narrowed. The CCFI index is 1243 points (previous value: 1155 points); the export price index of Yiwu small commodities is 106 points (previous value: 104 points); the RJ/CRB index is 303.3 points (previous value: 297.6 points) [9][11][37]. 3.6 Consumption: Decline in Passenger Car Retail and Wholesale - The consumption high - frequency index is 119.3 (previous value: 119.3), with a week - on - week increase of 0.0 points and a year - on - year increase of 1.5 points, and the year - on - year increase has expanded. The retail volume of passenger car manufacturers is 42,835 units (previous value: 95,364 units); the wholesale volume of passenger car manufacturers is 38,836 units (previous value: 156,618 units); the average daily box office is 39.01 million yuan (previous value: 82.57 million yuan) [9][11][50]. 3.7 CPI: Continued Decline in Pork Prices - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.0% (previous value: 0.0%). The latest average wholesale price of pork is 20.3 yuan/kg (previous value: 20.6 yuan/kg) [10][11][55]. 3.8 PPI: Recovery of Crude Oil Futures Prices - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is - 0.1% (previous value: - 0.1%). The closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (from Shanxi) is 609 yuan/ton (previous value: 609 yuan/ton); the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures is 69 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 65 US dollars/barrel) [10][11][61]. 3.9 Transportation: Decline in Passenger Transport and Flights - The transportation high - frequency index is 128.0 (previous value: 127.8), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 points and a year - on - year increase of 8.2 points, and the year - on - year increase has expanded. The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 36.98 million person - times (previous value: 37.17 million person - times); the highway logistics freight rate index is 1050 points (previous value: 1050 points); the number of domestic flights is 12,420 flights (previous value: 12,451 flights) [10][11][73]. 3.10 Inventory: Continuous Recovery of Aluminum Ingot Inventory - The inventory high - frequency index is 160.3 (previous value: 160.2), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 9.8 points, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The aluminum ingot inventory is 179,000 tons (previous value: 165,000 tons); the soda ash inventory is 1.682 million tons (previous value: 1.627 million tons) [10][11][79]. 3.11 Financing: Decline in Net Financing of Local Government Bonds and Credit Bonds - The financing high - frequency index is 229.1 (previous value: 228.5), with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 points and a year - on - year increase of 29.3 points, and the year - on - year increase has expanded. The net financing of local government bonds is - 4.3 billion yuan (previous value: 5.05 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds is 9.96 billion yuan (previous value: 12.37 billion yuan); the 6M national - share bank draft rediscount rate is 1.05% (previous value: 1.08%) [10][11][89].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [2][4]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the third-party delivery sector, which exhibits strong growth potential. The upward revision of the annual transaction cap reflects the unexpected surge in demand for last-mile delivery services [2][3]. - The company has significantly increased its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with projected net profits of 350 million, 670 million, and 1.27 billion RMB respectively, compared to previous estimates of 260 million, 410 million, and 590 million RMB [2][3]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are revised to 0.39, 0.73, and 1.38 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 38, 20, and 11 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - On June 13, 2025, the company proposed to revise the annual cap for related transactions for last-mile delivery services to 12.845 billion and 20.551 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, representing year-on-year increases of 101.7% and 60.0% respectively [1]. - The revision is driven by the faster-than-expected growth in last-mile delivery demand, with historical transaction amounts reaching 6.369 billion RMB in 2024, up 33.3% from 4.777 billion RMB in 2023 [1]. Business Growth Drivers - The company's flexible transportation network and strong delivery capabilities are expected to meet the increasing last-mile delivery demands, leading to rapid revenue growth [1]. - Key growth strategies include enhancing e-commerce return collection capabilities, expanding service networks and rider teams, and diversifying delivery services [1]. - The company anticipates continued strong growth in express delivery services through deeper collaboration with SF Holding Group, particularly during peak periods [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.746 billion, 23.598 billion, 33.748 billion, and 42.178 billion RMB, with growth rates of 27.1%, 49.9%, 43.0%, and 25.0% respectively [3]. - The projected net profit growth rates for the same years are 161.8%, 167.1%, 89.9%, and 88.4% [3]. - The company’s financial ratios indicate a strong growth trajectory, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 24.09% by 2027 [3].

金十图示：2025年06月16日（周一）富时中国A50指数成分股午盘收盘行情一览：银行股普涨、汽车整车板块领跌 富时中国A50指数连续 保险 账 中国人保 中国太保 中国平安 081 3803.26亿市值 3472.94亿市值 9855.38亿市值 14.94亿成交额 5.15亿成交额 5.27亿成交额 54.12 36.10 8.60 +0.19(+0.53%) -0.36(-0.66%) +0.10(+1.18%) 酸酒行业 贵州茅台 五粮液 山西汾酒 17760.63亿市值 2099.19亿市值 4565.94亿市值 39.48亿成交额 10.73亿成交额 21.62亿成交额 117.63 1413.84 172.07 -13.11(-0.92%) -1.49(-1.25%) +0.97(+0.57%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2207.27亿市值 2517.14亿市值 3204.56亿市值 14.65亿成交额 7.50亿成交额 16.77亿成交额 413.21 602.97 137.87 -1.93(-0.32%) +2.65(+0.65%) +0.81(+0.59%) 汽 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming year [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing an unexpected surge in demand for last-mile delivery services, leading to an upward revision of the annual transaction cap for related services to RMB 128.45 billion and RMB 205.51 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of +101.7% and +60.0% [1]. - The company's flexible transportation network and strong delivery capabilities are expected to significantly enhance revenue from last-mile delivery services, driven by factors such as the growth of e-commerce returns, network expansion, and diversified service offerings [1]. - The company anticipates continued strong growth in express delivery services in collaboration with SF Holding Group, particularly during peak periods and in regions lacking local delivery personnel [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 15.75 billion in 2024 to RMB 42.18 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.1% [3]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from RMB 132 million in 2024 to RMB 869 million in 2027, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from RMB 0.14 in 2024 to RMB 0.95 in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 96 to 15 over the same period [3].

Group 1 - Giant Network announced that its current operating conditions are normal and there are no undisclosed significant matters [3] - Deep Blue Automotive responded to a fire incident involving one of its vehicles, attributing it to external factors rather than vehicle issues [3] - Hu Run exchanged a limited edition LABUBU doll with the CEO of Pony.ai, highlighting a unique collaboration in the tech industry [5] Group 2 - Tesla is set to deliver its first fully autonomous vehicle in Austin, Texas, on June 28, with plans for a Robotaxi service trial, despite facing protests regarding safety concerns [7] - The producer of "Nezha 2" suggested adjusting the profit-sharing model in the Chinese film industry, noting that the current distribution leaves producers with only about 33% of box office revenue [9] - Honor's chief imaging engineer stated that the Honor 400 series cameras do not require lens protectors, emphasizing the quality of their glass [9] Group 3 - Pop Mart's newly opened store in Hangzhou closed shortly after opening due to internal issues, while the company launched its first popop jewelry store in Beijing [11] - Hisense became the first official partner of the FIFA Club World Cup, with its 100-inch TV holding over 56% of the global market share [13] - Xiaomi responded to reports of a university banning Redmi phones for online exams, clarifying that it was not the school's requirement but rather a decision by the technology provider [15] Group 4 - JD Logistics is reportedly moving towards a self-operated model in Saudi Arabia, marking a significant step in its overseas logistics strategy [16] - Guoyan Hanyin completed a multi-million A round financing to develop a new generation of single-molecule immune diagnostic systems [17] - Somnee, a smart sleep device company, raised $10 million in seed funding to advance its AI-based wearable technology [17] Group 5 - Wuhan University developed a "digital passport" using domestic secure chips and quantum-resistant cryptography, enhancing security and portability [18] - Apple is expected to update the MacBook Pro design next year, introducing a series-connected OLED panel and a thinner body [20] - China's trade with Central Asian countries grew by 10.4% in the first five months of this year, reaching a historical high [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [11]. Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the recent conflict between Israel and Iran, have led to increased oil prices and heightened demand for oil transportation. The report anticipates that oil shipping rates will rise due to panic-driven stockpiling and disruptions in shipping efficiency [2][19]. - Historical analysis of the Iran-Iraq War indicates that oil shipping rates experienced fluctuations due to supply chain disruptions, high oil prices suppressing demand, and eventual recovery in demand leading to increased shipping rates [22][23]. - The report suggests that while short-term disruptions may benefit oil shipping, the long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely, with more focus on disruptions rather than complete closures, which will affect shipping efficiency [30][31]. Summary by Sections Oil Transportation - The report highlights that the geopolitical situation has led to a significant increase in oil prices, with prices rising from $66.87 per barrel to $74.23 per barrel within a few days. The forward freight agreements (FFA) for oil shipping have also seen a daily increase of 12% [19][30]. - It is recommended to focus on leading oil shipping companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy due to their potential to benefit from the current market conditions [2][37]. Passenger Transportation - The report notes a seasonal decline in domestic passenger transport due to the examination period, with a 1% year-on-year increase in domestic passenger volume, while international passenger volume has increased by 14% [8][42]. - The report indicates that domestic ticket prices are under pressure, with a 5.6% decline in average ticket prices due to fuel surcharges and seasonal factors [48]. Shipping and Logistics - The report mentions that the average TCE for VLCC has increased by 51.8% to $32,000 per day, reflecting strong demand for oil shipping amid geopolitical tensions [9][25]. - The report also discusses the decline in container shipping rates, with the SCFI index dropping by 6.8% to 2,088 points, indicating a cooling demand in the container shipping market [9][10]. - The logistics sector shows a continued high growth rate in express delivery, with a 16.2% year-on-year increase in the volume of express deliveries [10].