Industry News - The China Insurance Industry Association issued a risk warning regarding the "Anwo Stock Insurance" business, stating that it is not an approved insurance product and that stock investment losses are not insurable. The platform's activities may involve illegal financial operations [6]. - Beijing's Internet Information Office and the Beijing Financial Regulatory Bureau launched a three-month campaign to address six types of online financial misconduct, focusing on misleading public information and illegal financial services [7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments released a plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods, aiming for a significant optimization of the supply structure by 2027, with three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots [7]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources announced breakthroughs in the efficient extraction of low-grade rare metals from coal, aluminum, copper, lead, and zinc ores, with significant improvements in recovery rates for various metals [7]. - The first hydrogen refueling station in China utilizing underground hydrogen storage technology has been operational for over 1500 days, supplying over 400 tons of hydrogen, marking a significant advancement in high-pressure underground hydrogen storage technology [8]. Company News - Dongwei Technology announced a significant increase in PCB plating equipment orders, driven by rapid growth in the PCB and memory sectors, with expected record-high order amounts this year [11]. - North University Pharmaceutical stated that related flu medications have not yet been produced or sold, and this will not impact the company's performance for a considerable time [12]. - *ST Dongtong disclosed that its annual reports from 2019 to 2022 contained false records and has received a notice of termination of listing [13]. - Debang Technology's largest shareholder, the National Big Fund, reduced its stake by 2% between September 11 and October 16, completing its reduction plan [13]. - Muxi Co., Ltd. plans to issue 40.1 million shares, with the initial strategic placement of 8.02 million shares, and the subscription date set for December 5, 2025 [15].

Core Viewpoint - The Kenyan government, led by President Ruto, has announced a comprehensive national infrastructure plan aimed at enhancing transportation and other sectors over the next decade, with significant investments and projects outlined [1] Group 1: Infrastructure Development - The government plans to upgrade 2,500 kilometers of roads to dual carriageways and pave 28,000 kilometers of tarmacked roads [1] - A key project highlighted is the expansion of the Rioni-Mau Summit road, which is set to commence next week [1] - The Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) will be extended from Naivasha to Kisumu, ultimately reaching Malaba [1] Group 2: Public-Private Partnerships - The government aims to accelerate upgrades to aviation infrastructure through public-private partnerships (PPP), including modernization efforts at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA), Mombasa Airport, and Lamu Airport [1] Group 3: Funding and Investment - A total of 5 trillion shillings (approximately 38.6 billion USD) will be raised through a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) and a national investment fund (NIF) to support projects in transportation, energy, agriculture, and education [1]

Core Insights - The Eurasian Stabilization and Development Fund has released a mid-term forecast report regarding Kyrgyzstan's budget surplus situation for the coming years [1] - The report indicates that Kyrgyzstan's national budget will maintain a surplus to ensure the repayment of basic debts, particularly through capital injections into state-owned enterprises in the energy, banking, and construction sectors, which are included in the 2025-2027 budget [1] - Analysts predict that by 2028, the proportion of tax revenue to GDP will gradually decline to 15%, leading to a budget deficit of approximately 0.2% of GDP [1] Budget Forecast - The average budget surplus for the years 2025-2027 is projected to be around 1.6% of GDP, supported by a high tax revenue ratio averaging 23% of GDP [1] - The capital injections into key sectors are aimed at maintaining fiscal stability and supporting economic growth [1]

A 股那边今年有个光伏行业的 “反内卷” 行动在炒作，币圈这边今天看到一个 SOL 基金会 + Multicoin 支持的光伏和能源相关项目 😂想到去年的 Mobile 和 Honey 也算是在 @Solana_zh 上冒出来的 DePIN 神币了，后来被其他东西吸引注意力太快就没人炒了。这次集中起热度不知道有没有人愿意玩，今天很多人在说 @fuseenergy 的原因是他们拿到的这个 SEC No-Action Letter 比较有含金量据说这个项目有年度经常性收入（ARR）3 亿美元，服务超过 20 万户家庭，不知道在哪里能核实一下这个信息。融资方面 $90M 的融资额是在 @RootDataCrypto 上查到的 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic. It is for internal company use only and does not constitute personal investment advice [1]. 2. Market Data 2.1. Commodity Prices and Weekly Changes | Asset Class | Sub - variety | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Commodities | Iron ore | 785.50 | 1.68% | | | Corn | 2195.00 | 0.46% | | | Rebar | 3057.00 | 0.13% | | | PTA | 4666.00 | - 0.72% | | | Palm oil | 8550.00 | - 1.09% | | | Polysilicon | 53360.00 | - 1.27% | | | Copper | 85660.00 | - 1.43% | | | Crude oil | 447.40 | - 2.19% | | | Aluminum | 21340.00 | - 2.29% | | | Methanol | 2004.00 | - 2.48% | | | Soybean meal | 3012.00 | - 2.59% | | | Gold | 926.94 | - 2.75% | | | Ethylene glycol | 3808.00 | - 2.91% | | | PVC | 4456.00 | - 3.30% | | | Live pigs | 11350.00 | - 3.61% | | | Glass | 987.00 | - 4.36% | | | Silver | 11680.00 | - 5.62% | | | Coking coal | 1103.00 | - 7.47% | 2.2. Stock Indexes and Weekly Changes | Stock Index | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai 50 | 2955.85 | - 2.72% | | CSI 300 | 4453.61 | - 3.77% | | CSI 500 | 6817.41 | - 5.78% | | FTSE 100 | 9539.71 | - 1.64% | | S&P 500 | 6602.99 | - 1.95% | | France CAC40 | 7982.65 | - 2.29% | | NASDAQ Index | 22273.08 | - 2.74% | | Nikkei 225 | 48625.88 | - 3.48% | | Hang Seng Index | 25220.02 | - 5.09% | 2.3. Bonds and Weekly Changes | Bond | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.59 | + 0.62bp | | 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.82 | + 0.14bp | | 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.43 | - 0.45bp | 2.4. Foreign Exchange and Weekly Changes | Foreign Exchange | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | US Dollar Index | 100.15 | + 0.87% | | US Dollar Intermediate Price | 7.09 | + 0.07% | | Euro - US Dollar | 1.15 | - 0.93% | [2] 3. Commodity Views 3.1. Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy View: 3 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Nvidia's better - than - expected performance eases AI bubble concerns; Fed officials' remarks boost rate - cut expectations; loose expectations remain, and the stock index may stage a phased recovery; significant short - term decline with strong downside support. - Bearish Logic: Fed's hawkish stance causes liquidity expectations to fluctuate; rising US Dollar Index suppresses global risk appetite; AI bubble controversy affects tech stocks; fading speculative sentiment leads to reduced trading volume [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy View: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Weak fundamental data and insufficient domestic demand support loose expectations; central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading signals policy support; medium - to - long - term allocation demand pulls interest rates down; limited incremental policies at the end of the year. - Bearish Logic: Low expectation of further rate cuts, lack of upward momentum; tight external market liquidity affects the bond market; new redemption rules suppress the bond market, especially 30 - year bonds [4]. 3.2. Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy View: 0 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: OPEC + suspends production increase, tightening supply expectations; northern hemisphere's heating season boosts demand; geopolitical risks in South America remain; short - term disruption of Libyan exports; Fed officials' calming remarks boost rate - cut expectations; potential stabilization after short - term oversold. - Bearish Logic: Persistent global supply surplus and inventory accumulation; fluctuating Fed rate - cut expectations and tight liquidity; overall slowdown in fourth - quarter demand; significant decline in geopolitical risks [5]. 3.3. Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Malaysia enters the production - reduction season, easing supply pressure; India's import profit recovery may increase procurement; Indonesia's B50 policy boosts long - term biodiesel demand; widening international soybean - palm oil price difference makes palm oil more cost - effective. - Bearish Logic: US cancellation of relevant energy offices is negative for biodiesel policies; weak Malaysian palm oil exports in November; large domestic inventory accumulation; winter consumption off - season and expected inventory build - up [5]. 3.4. Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Low inventory provides price support; limited supply increase expected in 2026, maintaining a tight supply - demand balance; emerging sectors like energy storage drive long - term aluminum consumption. - Bearish Logic: AI bubble concerns affect metal performance; cooling Fed rate - cut expectations pressure metal prices; potential decline in photovoltaic production may suppress aluminum consumption; high prices squeeze processing profits; industry off - season affects demand and开工 [6]. 3.5. Chemical Sector - **Methanol** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Potential winter maintenance in Iran may reduce imports; attention to year - end maintenance of southwest gas - based producers; increased losses in coal - to - methanol production may force a reduction in operating loads; low valuation limits downside space. - Bearish Logic: Weakening macro - drivers lead to trading of weak fundamentals; high import arrivals and expected port inventory build - up; compressed MTO profits reduce methanol procurement; weakening coal - based cost support [6]. 3.6. Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy View: 2 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Fed officials' dovish signals boost rate - cut expectations; geopolitical and policy uncertainties increase gold's safe - haven appeal; US debt credit issues weaken long - term US dollar confidence; global central banks' continuous gold purchases support long - term demand. - Bearish Logic: Large internal differences within the Fed lead to unclear policy guidance; better - than - expected non - farm payrolls strengthen the hawkish stance; improving US dollar liquidity may increase market risk appetite [7]. 3.7. Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Tight supply expectations of Australian coal may support import costs; potential decline in production after year - end production targets are met; increased demand from winter heating. - Bearish Logic: Supply - guarantee policies make the market cautious; increased steel mill losses lead to reduced hot metal production; significant increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance; more online auction failures indicate weak demand; high coking coal inventory in coke enterprises reduces restocking willingness [7].

中发展控股(00475)发布截至2025年9月30日止6个月的中期业绩，该集团取得收益6791万港元，同比减 少21.71%;公司拥有人应占亏损1021.4万港元，同比增加9.9%;每股亏损2.48港仙。 公告称，收益减少乃主要由于能源业务及珠宝业务的营业额双双下跌所致。 ...

智通财经APP讯，中发展控股(00475)发布截至2025年9月30日止6个月的中期业绩，该集团取得收益6791 万港元，同比减少21.71%;公司拥有人应占亏损1021.4万港元，同比增加9.9%;每股亏损2.48港仙。 公告称，收益减少乃主要由于能源业务及珠宝业务的营业额双双下跌所致。 ...

Core Points - Yunnan Energy Investment Co., Ltd. has announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Anning Yunnan Energy Storage Technology Co., Ltd., has completed the registration change, increasing the investment amount from 1 million RMB to 373 million RMB, with the registered capital changing accordingly to 373 million RMB [1] - Additionally, the wholly-owned subsidiary Huize Yunnan Clean Energy Co., Ltd. has also completed the registration change, with the investment amount increased from 1 million RMB to 82.1 million RMB, leading to a corresponding change in registered capital to 82.1 million RMB [1]

Core Insights - The European Union (EU) reported a trade surplus of 40.8 billion euros with the United States in Q3, a decrease of 13.3% from the surplus of 47.1 billion euros in Q2 and a significant drop of 49.7% compared to the surplus of 81.2 billion euros in Q1 [1][2] Trade Performance - In Q1, the trade performance was notably strong due to anticipated U.S. tariff increases, leading to a significant rise in EU exports to the U.S. [2] - In Q3, the EU maintained a trade surplus with the U.S. in chemicals and related products, machinery and vehicles, other manufactured goods, and food and beverages, while experiencing a deficit in energy, raw materials, and other goods [2] Energy Imports - Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the EU significantly increased its energy imports from the U.S., resulting in a higher growth rate of imports from the U.S. compared to other global regions [2] Trade Agreement Challenges - The EU had hoped that a trade agreement reached in July with the U.S. would alleviate trade tensions, but this has not materialized as expected [2] - The European Commission is seeking a reduction in U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, as well as exemptions for various goods, including alcoholic beverages and medical devices [2] - U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo linked the reduction of steel and aluminum tariffs to the EU's adjustment of its technology industry regulatory framework, raising concerns within the EU about the potential hollowing out of the trade agreement [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the Hong Kong stock market has shown significant growth since 2025, with the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 28.20% and 24.11% respectively [1] - It is expected that the Hong Kong stock market will continue to experience wide fluctuations in December, influenced by three main factors: the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts improving liquidity in Hong Kong stocks, the narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. leading to an appreciation of the Renminbi, and the clearer domestic "14th Five-Year Plan" which is expected to enhance the earnings outlook for listed companies in Hong Kong [1] - Looking ahead, 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year as the "14th Five-Year Plan" commences, with developments in new productivity sectors and easing U.S.-China trade tensions expected to support the resilience of the Hong Kong stock market, potentially leading to a "slow bull" market trend [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (159331) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index (930914), which selects 30 high dividend yield stocks from securities eligible for the Hong Kong Stock Connect, focusing on those with good liquidity and consistent dividend payments [1] - The index comprises stocks from various traditional high dividend sectors such as finance, energy, and industrials, aiming to reflect the overall performance of high dividend securities in the Hong Kong Stock Connect with stable dividend characteristics and relatively low market volatility [1]