Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market in China has shown significant growth in trading volume and value in February, indicating a positive trend in market activity and potential investment opportunities [2][3][4]. Trading Volume Growth - In February, the national futures market recorded a trading volume of 563 million contracts and a trading value of 51.56 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 69.67% and 69.23% respectively [3]. - Cumulatively, from January to February, the trading volume reached 1.115 billion contracts and the trading value was 100.43 trillion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 26.19% and 34.83% [3]. Performance by Exchanges - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) accounted for 26.92% of the national market's trading volume with 300 million contracts, showing a year-on-year increase of 39.53% [4]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) had a trading volume of 380 million contracts, representing 34.06% of the national market, with a year-on-year growth of 29.09% [5]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) recorded a trading volume of 338 million contracts, making up 30.34% of the national market, with a year-on-year increase of 13.84% [5]. Financial Futures Market - The China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX) reported a trading volume of 23.61 million contracts, which is 4.2% of the national market, with a trading value of 20.12 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.03% of the national market [3]. Economic Recovery Impact - Analysts believe that the stabilization of the Chinese economy will further boost the futures market, with expectations for more diverse risk management tools and products to be introduced [6]. - The government’s focus on capital market reforms and the introduction of green financial products may lead to innovation in futures products, such as carbon emission rights futures and lithium futures [6]. Market Outlook - Increased issuance of special bonds and urbanization efforts are expected to improve demand for steel, potentially changing the current downturn in the steel industry [7]. - The overall improvement in domestic fundamentals and liquidity is anticipated to support a rebound in the stock market, with a focus on technology and dividend sectors [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the macroeconomic inventory cycle and its impact on commodity trading, highlighting the challenges in relying on U.S. demand to drive global economic growth in 2025 due to low inventory levels in China and potential recession risks in the U.S. [3][10] Group 1: Macro Inventory Cycle - The macro inventory cycle is crucial for understanding systemic risks in commodities, with historical trading logic based on inventory changes leading to various market phenomena [4][11]. - The article outlines different macro trading logics for various years, including U.S. recession in 2024 and China's inventory reduction in 2023 [5][6][10]. Group 2: Commodity Trading Phenomena - Several unusual phenomena in commodity trading are identified, such as significant price drops despite low inventory levels and high inventory not leading to price increases [11][12]. - A model developed to explain these phenomena shows a correlation between basis rates and commodity prices, indicating that understanding when to focus on supply-demand logic versus macro logic is essential [14]. Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators from the U.S. show mixed signals, with manufacturing PMI at a 17-month high while service sector PMI has declined significantly [26][27]. - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has dropped for three consecutive months, reaching its lowest level since June 2024, indicating potential economic challenges ahead [28]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that if issues arise in the Western economy, the probability of such events may be higher than previously thought, with a potential shift of capital from the West to the East beginning in 2025 [29].