Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the self - driving force of PE is still weak. It is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the slow recovery of downstream demand limits the upward push on PE. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern, waiting for a significant demand recovery signal on the spot side to drive PE up [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7150 - 7400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.09% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.8% [2]. - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short plastic futures (L2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at 7300 - 7350 yuan/ton and sell call options (L2601C7400) with a 50% hedging ratio at 70 - 100 [2]. - For procurement management with low standing inventory, it is recommended to buy plastic futures (L2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at 7150 - 7200 yuan/ton and sell put options (L2601P7100) with a 75% hedging ratio at 70 - 100 [2]. Core Contradiction - Although PE supply is expected to decrease in September due to high - volume device maintenance and demand is expected to increase as downstream moves from the off - season to the peak season, the slow recovery of demand and weak base - strengthening trend limit the upward push on PE [3]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Liduo Factors**: Demand is expected to improve month - on - month; the commissioning of ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE new device is expected to be postponed; there are still many device overhauls in September, leading to a de - stocking pattern in the balance sheet [4]. - **Likong Factors**: The current demand recovery speed is slow; the current LLDPE inventory is at a high level [5]. Daily Data Table - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Plastic main base - spread was - 16 yuan/ton on September 10, 2025, with a daily change of 3 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 14 yuan/ton. L01, L05, and L09 contracts had different price changes [6]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: Prices in North China, East China, and South China showed different trends, and regional spreads also changed [8]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: Spreads between different HDPE products and LLDPE film, as well as LDPE film and LLDPE film, had different changes [8]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: Brent crude oil price, US ethane price, coal price, and methanol price had different trends, and processing profits of different PE production methods also changed [8].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Polyethylene Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [1] Group 2: Analyst Information - Analysts: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0015428), Gu Hengye (Futures Practice License No.: F03143348) [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 3: Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - Polyethylene Price Range Forecast (Monthly): 7200 - 7400 [3] - Current Volatility (20 - day rolling): 9.94% [3] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 - year): 11.1% [3] - Inventory Management Strategy: For high - level finished product inventory, sell L2509 futures at 25% ratio in the range of 7350 - 7400 and sell L2510C7400 call options at 50% ratio in the range of 50 - 100 [3] - Procurement Management Strategy: For low - level procurement inventory, buy L2509 futures at 50% ratio in the range of 7200 - 7250 and sell L2510P7200 put options at 75% ratio in the range of 30 - 70 [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Polyolefin market follows macro - sentiment and coking coal price fluctuations. PE is moving towards a supply - demand growth pattern. Supply is increasing as the maintenance season ends, and demand is transitioning from off - season to peak season but with a slow recovery speed. Near - term PE supply - demand pressure is not large, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation if demand recovery is less than expected [4] Group 5: Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factor: Demand is expected to improve after August [5] - Bearish Factors: Jilin Petrochemical has recently started production, and ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE plant is expected to start production in August - September. LLDPE inventory is at a high level [6] Group 6: Market Data Futures Prices and Spreads - Plastic Main Contract Basis: 8 yuan/ton on August 14, with a daily change of 26 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 30 yuan/ton [7] - L01 Contract Price: 7343 yuan/ton on August 14, a daily decrease of 38 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 21 yuan/ton [7] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - North China Spot Price: 7290 yuan/ton on August 14, unchanged daily and an increase of 80 yuan/ton weekly [9] - East China Spot Price: 7360 yuan/ton on August 14, unchanged daily and an increase of 40 yuan/ton weekly [9] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent Crude Oil Price: 66 dollars/barrel on August 14, unchanged daily and a decrease of 0.8 dollars/barrel weekly [9] - US Ethane Price: 0.2026 dollars/gallon on August 14, a daily decrease of 0.0024 dollars/gallon and a weekly decrease of 0.0137 dollars/gallon [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - From the PE fundamentals, the near - term pressure is still high as downstream orders haven't improved and restocking demand is limited. Although there was a short - term increase in speculative demand on Monday and Tuesday this week, today's trading volume dropped significantly. Also, PE has been accumulating inventory for four consecutive weeks, with LLDPE inventory reaching a historical high. So, there is still significant pressure above PE. However, from the expected level, the current stage may be the weakest for PE demand, and downstream orders are expected to gradually recover in August, driving demand to pick up. Therefore, PE doesn't have a strong downward drive either. In conclusion, PE is mainly affected by external factors recently and lacks its own directional drive [4] Content Summary by Related Catalogs Price Prediction and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range prediction for polyethylene is 7200 - 7400, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 9.94% and its historical percentile (3 - year) at 11.1% [3] - For inventory management when the finished product inventory is high and worried about price drops: To prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short plastic futures (L2509, sell, 25%, entry range 7350 - 7400) to lock in profits and compensate for production costs; they can also sell call options (L2509C7400, sell, 50%, entry range 10 - 50) to collect premiums and reduce costs [3] - For procurement management when the regular inventory is low and purchasing according to orders: To prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising polyethylene prices, enterprises can buy plastic futures (L2509, buy, 50%, entry range 7150 - 7200) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance; they can also sell put options (L2509P7200, sell, 75%, entry range 10 - 50) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the polyethylene price drops [3] Core Contradictions - Near - term pressure on PE fundamentals is high due to poor downstream orders and limited restocking demand. Although there was short - term speculative demand, today's trading volume decreased. PE has been accumulating inventory for four consecutive weeks, especially LLDPE. However, the current stage may be the weakest for PE demand, and downstream orders are expected to recover in August [4] 利多解读 - The "anti - involution" policy drives up the price of coking coal, providing cost support for polyolefins. The demand is expected to improve after August [5] 利空解读 - Jilin Petrochemical's recent production launch. The current restocking willingness of downstream is limited, and the spot price lacks support. PE inventory has been accumulating for four consecutive weeks, with a large increase in LLDPE inventory [6] Daily Data - **Futures prices and spreads**: On August 7, 2025, the plastic main basis was - 22 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 24 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 3 yuan/ton. L01 contract was 7364 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton daily and 35 yuan/ton weekly. L05 contract was 7363 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton daily and 27 yuan/ton weekly. L09 contract was 7297 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton daily and 53 yuan/ton weekly. The L1 - 5 month spread was 1 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton daily and 8 yuan/ton weekly. The L5 - 9 month spread was 66 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton daily and 26 yuan/ton weekly. The L9 - 1 month spread was - 67 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton daily and 18 yuan/ton weekly. The L - P spread was 222 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton daily and 10 yuan/ton weekly [7] - **Spot prices and regional spreads**: On August 7, 2025, the spot price in North China was 7210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton daily and down 50 yuan/ton weekly. In East China, it was 7320 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 70 yuan/ton weekly. In South China, it was 7290 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 30 yuan/ton weekly. The East China - North China spread was 110 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton daily and 20 yuan/ton weekly. The East China - South China spread was 30 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 40 yuan/ton weekly [9] - **Non - standard and standard product spreads**: On August 7, 2025, the spread between HDPE film and LLDPE film was 475 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 75 yuan/ton weekly. The spread between HDPE hollow and LLDPE film was 250 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and weekly. The spread between HDPE injection and LLDPE film was 150 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 25 yuan/ton weekly. The spread between HDPE drawing and LLDPE film was 500 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 75 yuan/ton weekly. The spread between HDPE pipe and LLDPE film was 1425 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 50 yuan/ton weekly. The spread between LDPE film and LLDPE film was 2275 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 150 yuan/ton weekly [9] - **Upstream prices and processing profits**: On August 7, 2025, the Brent crude oil price was 67 dollars/barrel, unchanged daily and down 4.81 dollars/barrel weekly. The US ethane price was 0.215 dollars/gallon, unchanged daily and up 0.0017 dollars/gallon weekly. The northwest coal price was 545 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and weekly. The East China methanol price was 2395 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 25 yuan/ton weekly. The oil - based PE profit was 550.1823 yuan/ton daily and 900.9701 yuan/ton weekly. The coal - based PE profit was 363 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 211.25 yuan/ton weekly. The profit from purchasing methanol externally to produce PE was - 355 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 200 yuan/ton weekly. The profit from purchasing ethane externally to produce PE was 1849 yuan/ton, up 3.2524 yuan/ton daily and down 61.9009 yuan/ton weekly. The profit from purchasing ethylene externally to produce PE was 406.7415 yuan/ton daily and 371.4526 yuan/ton weekly [9]

Report Summary 1. Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7200 - 7500 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.94% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 11.1% [2]. - For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high, the recommended strategies are to short L2509 futures at a 25% ratio in the 7400 - 7450 yuan range and sell L2509C7500 call options at a 50% ratio in the 10 - 50 yuan range [2]. - For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, the recommended strategies are to buy L2509 futures at a 50% ratio in the 7150 - 7200 yuan range and sell L2509P7200 put options at a 75% ratio in the 10 - 50 yuan range [2]. 2. Core Contradiction - The polyolefin market was driven up by coking coal in the afternoon. PE fundamentals have seen little change recently. Near - term pressure is high, with weak downstream orders, limited restocking demand, and a significant decline in PE spot trading volume. PE has been accumulating inventory for four consecutive weeks, with LLDPE inventory at a historical high. However, the current stage may be the weakest for PE demand, and downstream orders are expected to recover in August, driving demand improvement. PE is mainly affected by external factors and lacks a clear directional driver [3]. 3. Positive and Negative Factors - Positive factors include the "anti - involution" policy driving up coking coal prices, providing cost support for polyolefins, and the expected improvement in demand after August [4]. - Negative factors include the recent commissioning of Jilin Petrochemical, limited downstream restocking willingness, and continuous four - week inventory accumulation in PE, especially significant in LLDPE [8]. 4. Market Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day, the plastic main basis decreased by 49 yuan/ton to - 63 yuan/ton. The prices of L01, L05, and L09 contracts increased, with changes of 36, 31, and 44 yuan/ton respectively [6]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: On August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day, spot prices in North China, East China, and South China decreased or remained unchanged. The East China - North China spread remained unchanged, and the East China - South China spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton [9]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: The spreads between various HDPE products and LLDPE film, as well as LDPE film and LLDPE film, showed different degrees of change on August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day [9]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: On August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day, Brent crude oil prices remained unchanged, and the prices of US ethane, Northwest coal, and East China methanol changed slightly. The processing profits of different PE production methods also showed different degrees of change [9].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Polyethylene Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies Price Forecast - Price Range Forecast (Monthly) for Polyethylene: 7200 - 7500 yuan/ton; Current Volatility (20 - day rolling): 8.05%; Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 - year): 3.7% [3] Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline: Short L2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 7400 - 7450 yuan/ton; Sell L2509C7500 call options with a 50% ratio at 50 - 80 [3] Procurement Management - For low regular procurement inventory: Buy L2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 7150 - 7200 yuan/ton; Sell L2509P7200 put options with a 75% ratio at 30 - 80 [3] Group 3: Core Contradiction - Polyolefin market strengthened in the afternoon due to coking coal prices and positive policy signals. PE has a "weak reality + strong expectation" situation. Weak reality: PE spot is weak, basis is below - 100, and inventory is rising. Strong expectation: limited capacity increase recently and upcoming downstream peak season in late July to early August. PE month - spread changed from back to contango and is expected to continue until positive feedback from the spot market [4] Group 4:利多解读 - Positive factors: Macro - sentiment driven rise; LLDPE supply pressure eased by some full - density device rotation and low HDPE inventory; Potential reduction in PE imports from Iran due to Israel - Iran conflict [5] Group 5:利空解读 - Negative factors: Multiple HDPE device planned to be put into production in the middle of the year; Upstream price cuts lead to weak spot prices; PE inventory has been rising for two consecutive weeks, especially LLDPE [6] Group 6: Market Data Futures Prices and Spreads - Plastic main basis on July 22, 2025: - 118 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton from the previous day and 132 yuan/ton from a week ago. L01, L05, and L09 contracts increased by 83, 105, and 78 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous day [7] - L1 - 5, L5 - 9, and L9 - 1 month - spreads changed by - 22, 27, and - 5 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous day [9] - L - P spread was 200 yuan/ton on July 22, 2025, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous day [9] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7140, 7270, and 7280 yuan/ton respectively on July 22, 2025. East - North and East - South spreads were 130 and - 10 yuan/ton respectively [9] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - HDPE film - LLDPE film, HDPE hollow - LLDPE film, HDPE injection - LLDPE film, HDPE drawing - LLDPE film, and LDPE film - LLDPE film spreads changed by - 10, - 10, - 35, - 10, and - 10 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous day [9] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent crude oil price was 69 dollars/barrel on July 22, 2025; US ethane price was 0.245 dollars/gallon; Northwest coal price was 485 yuan/ton; East China methanol price was 2450 yuan/ton [9] - Oil - based, coal - based, externally - purchased methanol - based, externally - purchased ethane - based, and externally - purchased ethylene - based PE profits changed by 763.5293, 10, 10, 13.4548, and 431.9967 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous day [9]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - PE currently has a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, with the futures market showing a transition from a back structure to a contango structure. The current weak spot market is due to upstream price cuts, but the supply is expected to contract with limited new capacity and ongoing maintenance, and the demand growth rate remains above 10%. If the current demand growth rate is maintained, the PE supply - demand structure is expected to be in a tight - balance state. Attention should be paid to the spot market for the L09 contract pressure to be released [3] Key Points from Different Sections Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7100 - 7400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.45% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 16.7% [2] Hedging Strategies - For inventory management to prevent inventory depreciation, short L2509 futures with a 25% ratio at 7250 - 7300, and sell L2509C7400 call options with a 50% ratio at 20 - 50 to collect premiums and reduce costs - For inventory management to prevent price increases in procurement, buy L2509 futures with a 50% ratio at 7100 - 7150, and sell L2509P7100 put options with a 75% ratio at 40 - 80 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2] Core Contradictions - The polyolefin market has been in a weak oscillation recently. PE spot has been weak with upstream price cuts and a significant decline in basis. However, from a fundamental perspective, supply is expected to contract due to limited new capacity and maintenance, and demand growth is over 10%, which may lead to a tight - balance state [3] Bullish Factors - PE devices are in a seasonal maintenance period until July - Some full - density devices have switched production, reducing LLDPE supply pressure, and low HDPE inventory can absorb the additional supply - The Israel - Iran conflict may reduce PE imports from Iran [4] Bearish Factors - Multiple HDPE devices are planned to be put into production in the middle of the year - Upstream price cuts have weakened the spot price support [5] Market Data - Futures prices, spreads, spot prices, regional spreads, non - standard and standard product spreads, upstream prices, and processing profits are presented in the report, showing daily and weekly changes [6][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, affected by macro - factors, chemical products generally declined. PE has a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectation, with its spot performance being weak recently but fundamentals expected to be better. If the current demand growth rate is maintained, the PE supply - demand structure is expected to be in a tight - balance state. The month - spread has changed from back to contango, and pressure on L09 is expected to be relieved when the PE spot shows positive feedback [3] - There are both positive and negative factors for PE. Positive factors include some full - density device conversions and potential import reduction from Iran due to conflicts. Negative factors are the planned commissioning of multiple HDPE devices in the middle of the year and weak spot prices [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Prediction and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction for polyethylene is 7100 - 7400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.32% and a historical percentile of 21.7% over 3 years [2] 3.2 Hedging Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for inventory management, it is recommended to short L2509 plastic futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7250 - 7300 to prevent inventory depreciation. Also, sell L2509C7300 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2] 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When procurement inventory is low and aiming to lock in costs, buy L2509 plastic futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 7100 - 7150 to prevent price increases. Sell L2509P7100 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at 40 - 80 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2] 3.3 Market Data Table 3.3.1 Futures Prices and Spreads - On July 15, 2025, the plastic main basis was 14 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 58 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 14 yuan/ton. The L01, L05, and L09 contracts were 7239, 7214, and 7221 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 49, - 44, and - 63 yuan/ton and weekly changes of 14, 14, and - 24 yuan/ton [6][8] 3.3.2 Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - On July 15, 2025, spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7150, 7290, and 7270 yuan/ton respectively. The East - North and East - South regional spreads were 140 and 20 yuan/ton with daily changes of 30 and 30 yuan/ton and weekly changes of - 10 and - 30 yuan/ton [8] 3.3.3 Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - On July 15, 2025, the spreads between HDPE film and LLDPE film, HDPE hollow and LLDPE film, etc. showed various changes compared to previous days and weeks [8] 3.3.4 Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - On July 15, 2025, the Brent crude oil price was 69 dollars/barrel, the US ethane price was 0.245 dollars/gallon, and there were different profit situations for oil - based, coal - based, and other PE production methods [8]

Report Summary 1. Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7100 - 7500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.45% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 34.0% [2] 2. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for inventory management: - Short L2509 futures at a 25% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 7350 - 7450 to prevent inventory depreciation and lock in profits [2] - Sell L2509C7400 call options at a 50% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 50 - 100 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if prices rise [2] Procurement Management - When procurement inventory is low and aiming to lock in costs: - Buy L2509 futures at a 50% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 7100 - 7200 to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs [2] - Sell L2509P7200 put options at a 75% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 40 - 80 to collect premiums and lock in the buying price if prices fall [2] 3. Core Views - Recently, the polyolefin market has been driven up by macro - sentiment and coking coal prices. From a fundamental perspective, PE also has upward momentum. Supply - side pressure has been marginally relieved, and demand has been higher than expected. If the high - demand growth rate continues in the second half of the year, PE supply and demand will be in a tight - balance state. Currently, the improvement in macro - sentiment and fundamentals is in resonance, giving PE short - term upward momentum [3] 4. Supply - Side Factors Positive Factors - PE plants are in a seasonal maintenance period, and the concentrated maintenance season is expected to last until mid - July [3] - Some full - density plants have switched production from LLDPE to HDPE due to the high HDPE - LLDPE price spread. Although HDPE supply has increased, its low inventory can absorb the additional supply, and LLDPE supply has decreased marginally [3] - The Iran - Israel conflict may lead to a slight reduction in PE imports from Iran in July - August [3][4] Negative Factors - Multiple HDPE plants are planned to be put into operation in the middle of the year [8] - The current spot price lacks strong support, making the real - world market weak [8] 5. Market Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The plastic main - contract basis on July 11, 2025, was 64 yuan/ton higher than the previous day and 18 yuan/ton lower than the previous week [6] - Details of L01, L05, L09 contract prices, month - to - month spreads, and L - P spreads are provided in the report [9] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - Spot prices and regional spreads in North China, East China, and South China are presented, along with their daily and weekly changes [9] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - Spreads between various HDPE products and LLDPE film, as well as LDPE film and LLDPE film, are given, along with their changes [9] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Prices of Brent crude oil, US ethane, northwest coal, and East China methanol, as well as processing profits from different production methods (oil - based, coal - based, etc.) are provided, along with their changes [9]

Report Summary 1. Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7,000 - 7,400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 14.30%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 33.2% [2] 2. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When inventory is high and worried about price decline: - Short L2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 7,300 - 7,400 to prevent inventory depreciation and lock in profits [2] - Sell L2509C7300 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at 70 - 120 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2] Procurement Management - When inventory is low and want to lock in procurement costs: - Buy L2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 7,100 - 7,200 to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs [2] - Sell L2509P7200 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 to collect premiums and lock in the spot buying price if the price falls [2] 3. Core Contradiction - PE supply has decreased recently: device overhauls are ongoing until mid - July; some full - density devices switched from LLDPE to HDPE due to high HDPE - LLDPE spread; PE imports from Iran may decline in July - August. Although PE demand is in the off - season, the demand in June was better than expected, indicating potential upward drivers for PE [3] 4. Bullish Factors - The high HDPE - LLDPE spread led to production switch, and low HDPE inventory can absorb the additional supply [4] - The Israel - Iran conflict may cause a decline in PE imports from Iran [4] 5. Bearish Factors - Multiple HDPE devices are planned to be put into production in the middle of the year [5] - The spot price has been weak [5] 6. Daily Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The plastic main contract basis, L01, L05, L09 contracts, and various month - spreads showed different changes on July 10, 2025, compared with previous days [6][8] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - Spot prices in North, East, and South China, as well as regional spreads, changed on July 10, 2025, compared with previous days [8] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - Spreads between HDPE and LLDPE products and LDPE and LLDPE products changed on July 10, 2025, compared with previous days [8] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent crude oil price, US ethane price, coal price, methanol price, and various PE processing profits showed different changes on July 10, 2025, compared with previous days [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Trump's statement on the cease - fire between Israel and Iran led to a sharp drop in oil prices at the opening, causing a general decline in chemical products. PE supply is contracting due to the conflict - related shutdown of Iranian polyolefin plants and domestic PE device maintenance, while demand is mainly for刚需 restocking in the off - season. Overall, the current supply - demand pressure of PE is not significant, and attention should be paid to import arrivals and full - density device conversion [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7000 - 7400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.74%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 40.1% [2]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management** - For high - inventory situations worried about price drops, shorting L2509 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 7300 - 7400 range can prevent inventory depreciation. Selling L2509C7300 call options at a 50% ratio in the 70 - 120 range can collect premiums and lock in selling prices [2]. - For low - inventory situations, buying L2509 futures at a 50% ratio in the 7100 - 7200 range can prevent price increases in procurement. Selling L2509P7100 put options at a 75% ratio in the 50 - 100 range can collect premiums and lock in buying prices [2]. Core Contradictions - Supply contraction: The Israel - Iran conflict led to plant shutdowns in Iran, and domestic PE devices are in maintenance, with full - density device conversion reducing the supply of standard products. Demand is mainly for刚需 restocking in the off - season. Attention should be paid to import arrivals and full - density device conversion [3]. Bullish Factors - PE devices are in seasonal maintenance until July. The high HDPE - LLDPE price difference leads to full - density device conversion, and low HDPE inventory can absorb the supply pressure. The Israel - Iran conflict may reduce PE imports from Iran [4]. Bearish Factors - Multiple HDPE devices are planned to be put into operation in the middle of the year. The off - season and low - profit environment reduce domestic demand [5]. Market Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads** - The plastic main - contract basis, L01, L05, and L09 contracts all showed certain changes compared to previous days and weeks. Month - to - month spreads (L1 - 5, L5 - 9, L9 - 1) and the L - P spread also had significant changes [6][8]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads** - Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China changed, and regional spreads (East - North, East - South) also showed fluctuations [8]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads** - Spreads between various HDPE products and LLDPE films, as well as between LDPE and LLDPE films, changed [8]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits** - Brent crude oil prices, US ethane prices, coal prices, and methanol prices all changed, affecting the processing profits of different PE production methods [8].