Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The construction index rose by 0.32% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.07%, indicating that the construction sector underperformed the market by 0.75 percentage points. Professional engineering, architectural design, and infrastructure sectors showed stronger gains [1][33] - Infrastructure investment continued to support the economy, with energy-related and water conservancy investments maintaining strength, while transportation infrastructure showed signs of recovery. For the first half of 2025, real estate development investment, narrow infrastructure, broad infrastructure, and manufacturing grew by -11.2%, +4.6%, +8.9%, and +7.5% year-on-year, respectively [1][13] - Recent disclosures of second-quarter orders from central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) indicate a recovery trend, with China Railway's second-quarter orders showing a year-on-year growth of 20.08%. The overall order situation for central SOEs is optimistic, suggesting a rebound in physical workload [2][27] Summary by Sections Macro and Micro Verification of Infrastructure Recovery - Infrastructure investment in June continued to provide support, with energy and water conservancy investments remaining strong, while transportation infrastructure showed signs of recovery. The year-on-year growth rates for real estate development investment, narrow infrastructure, broad infrastructure, and manufacturing from January to June 2025 were -11.2%, +4.6%, +8.9%, and +7.5%, respectively [1][13][14] Recent Order Disclosures from Central SOEs - Central SOEs such as China Railway, China Energy Construction, China Chemical, and China Nuclear Engineering reported a recovery in second-quarter orders. For instance, China Railway's first-half orders showed a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, with a significant increase in the second quarter [2][27][28] Valuation Perspective - As of July 18, the construction sector's PE (TTM) and PB (LF) ratios were among the lowest across all primary industries, indicating significant room for valuation improvement. The construction sector's PE (TTM) was 11.12 times, with a historical percentile of 48.50%, compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300's PE of 13.39 times [3][30][32]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月20日 转债市场周报 资金配置转债需求依旧较强 核心观点 固定收益周报 上周市场焦点（7 月 14 日-7 月 18 日） 股市方面，上周权益市场延续上涨，英伟达 H20 芯片恢复对华供应、光 模块龙头企业业绩预告表现亮眼等催化下，通信板块表现靠前，创新药、 机器人相关行情带动生物医药、汽车、机械板块表现较好。 债市方面，上周债市窄幅震荡，尽管央行实行大额公开市场投放及买断 式逆回购，但受税期影响资金面仍有所收紧，6 月金融数据改善、权益 市场延续强势也对债市情绪形成压制；而 6 月经济数据显示内需依旧偏 弱则利好债市；周五 10 年期国债利率收于 1.67%，和前周基本持平。 转债市场方面，上周转债个券多数收涨，中证转债指数全周+0.67%，价 格中位数+0.91%，我们计算的算术平均平价全周+1.43%，全市场转股溢 价率与上周相比-0.91%。个券层面，博瑞（创新药）、博汇（算力）、 聚隆（机器人）、亿田（算力）、宏丰（合金材料）转债涨幅靠前；塞 力（创新药&业绩预亏）、广大（特种合金&已公告强赎）、华辰（变压 器）、濮耐（耐火材料）、联得（显示模组设备&已公告强赎）转 ...

Group 1: Company Performance and Growth - The company has seen steady progress in its operations during the first half of the year, with significant revenue growth needed to meet the 2025 performance targets [3] - The company aims to enhance its operational performance through domestic and international market expansion and continuous technological innovation [3] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve due to the rail transit business, with ongoing efforts to increase market share and profitability [3][4] Group 2: Business Segments and Strategies - The decline in revenue from the building decoration business is attributed to external environmental factors, with plans to innovate and upgrade equipment to meet customer needs [4] - The company is focusing on the development of sandwich lightweight composite materials, which align with national carbon neutrality strategies and are gaining traction in the rail transit and construction sectors [4] - Future overseas revenue and orders are projected to grow, with plans to strengthen the overseas marketing network and increase new product development [4] Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to concentrate on its core business of sandwich lightweight composite materials, aiming for multi-field applications and enhanced market presence [5] - There is a commitment to digital and intelligent transformation to improve management efficiency and promote sustainable high-quality development [5] - The company is cautious about expanding into a second core business or pursuing acquisitions, focusing on steady and sustainable growth while evaluating risks and opportunities [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical context of the A-share market, highlighting that every time the index breaks through the 3500-3600 point range, it is often followed by a strong bull market. The current situation suggests a potential new bull market, but the presence of over 300 stocks trading below their book value indicates challenges ahead for a comprehensive bull market [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Bull Markets - In 2007 and 2015, the A-share market experienced comprehensive bull markets, characterized by a significant reduction in the number of stocks trading below their book value, known as "破净股" [1]. - The ultimate goal of a comprehensive bull market is to eliminate these "破净股," which serve as an important reference indicator for market health [1]. - During the 2007 bull market, the number of "破净股" dropped significantly, with reports indicating that by March 2007, there were virtually no such stocks left in the market [1]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - As of now, despite the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points, there are still over 300 stocks with a price-to-book ratio below 1, indicating a lack of upward momentum for these stocks [2]. - The sectors most affected by "破净股" include real estate, steel, and construction, with banks also showing significant numbers of such stocks, including Minsheng Bank and Huaxia Bank, which have price-to-book ratios below 0.5 [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The difficulty of making profits in the current market environment is increasing, with over 1400 stocks in decline despite a median increase of approximately 11.6% among A-shares this year [3]. - The market ecosystem has changed significantly compared to over a decade ago, with the introduction of the registration system and a substantial increase in the number of listed companies, now exceeding 5400 [3]. - The rise of quantitative trading, high-frequency trading, and algorithmic trading has created challenges for retail investors, who are at a disadvantage in terms of information and speed [3]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - In this context, ETFs have emerged as a viable option for retail investors, with total ETF assets reaching 4.3 trillion yuan, and individual investors increasingly participating in ETF trading [4]. - ETFs offer the advantage of diversifying individual stock risks and avoiding the pitfalls of high-frequency trading, thereby enhancing the probability of successful investments through passive and low-frequency strategies [4].

Group 1 - The core index, the CN Industrial Composite Index, has shown a significant increase of 5.77% over the past month, 11.65% over the past three months, and 6.12% year-to-date, reaching 2538.90 points [1] - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of different industry securities from mainland Chinese enterprises, categorized according to the China Securities Index industry classification standards [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include CATL (6.36%), China Railway Shanghai Group (1.49%), China State Construction Engineering (1.15%), and others, indicating a diverse representation of key sectors [1] Group 2 - The market capitalization distribution of the index shows that Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 47.12%, Shanghai Stock Exchange for 44.98%, and other exchanges like Hong Kong and New York have smaller shares [2] - In terms of industry representation, the index is heavily weighted towards electric power equipment (29.21%) and machinery manufacturing (28.67%), with transportation and construction also holding significant portions [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December, ensuring the index remains relevant to current market conditions [3]

Market Overview - On July 17, the trading volume of North Exchange A-shares reached 21.16 billion yuan, an increase of 1.28 billion yuan from the previous trading day[3] - The North Exchange 50 Index closed at 1428.1, up 0.9%, with a PE TTM of 67.79 times[3] - The North Exchange Specialized and New Index closed at 2438.2, up 0.8%[3] Stock Performance - Among 268 companies on the North Exchange, 140 rose, 11 remained flat, and 117 fell[3] - The top five gainers were: Huiwei Intelligent (14.8%), Hongyu Packaging (11.8%), Jiahe Technology (10.8%), Guangxin Technology (9.8%), and Wuxin Tunnel Equipment (8.7%)[3] - The top five losers were: Guangzi International (-7.3%), Yunchuang Data (-6.3%), Benlang New Materials (-4.8%), Fangsheng Co. (-3.5%), and Taipeng Intelligent (-3.3%)[3] Key News - National electricity load reached a historical high of 1.506 billion kilowatts, an increase of 0.055 billion kilowatts from last year[5] - The adjustment of consumption tax policy for ultra-luxury cars now applies to vehicles priced at 900,000 yuan or above (excluding VAT)[5] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors like AI computing, innovative pharmaceuticals, humanoid robots, and power grid construction as key market drivers[6] - The report suggests paying attention to specialized and new companies with strong performance certainty, especially in new productivity areas[6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a mixed performance with a slight increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, while the non-ferrous metals sector leads the gains among various industries [2] Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced the highest increase of 1.66%, with a transaction volume of 806.93 billion yuan, up by 82.56% from the previous trading day [2] - The steel industry rose by 0.98%, with a transaction volume of 114.66 billion yuan, an increase of 35.33% compared to the last trading day [2] - The coal industry saw a rise of 0.84%, with a transaction volume of 68.80 billion yuan, up by 83.14% from the previous day [2] - Other notable sectors include basic chemicals and defense industry, both increasing by 0.74% [2] Stock Highlights - Leading stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector include Haixing Co., which rose by 10.03% [2] - In the steel sector, Baogang Co. increased by 5.97% [2] - Yunmei Energy in the coal sector saw a rise of 10.05% [2] - Other significant gainers include Fumiao Technology in basic chemicals, which surged by 20.02% [2]

Market Overview - The market opened low and closed high, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains [4] - Major indices showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.37%, Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.43%, and ChiNext Index up by 1.75% [2][4] - Over 3,500 stocks in the market rose, indicating a broad-based rally [4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Defense and Military (+2.74%), Communication (+2.41%), Electronics (+2.18%), Biomedicine (+1.77%), and Comprehensive (+1.42%) [3] - Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were Banking (-0.42%), Transportation (-0.39%), Environmental Protection (-0.26%), Public Utilities (-0.24%), and Construction Decoration (-0.19%) [3] Concept Index Highlights - The leading concept indices were Co-packaged Optics (CPO) (+3.34%), PCB Concept (+3.07%), AI Mobile (+3.01%), AI PC (+3.01%), and Recombinant Protein (+2.92%) [3] - The lagging concept indices included Gold Concept (-0.13%), Control Shares (-0.12%), Cement Concept (-0.06%), Solid Waste Treatment (-0.03%), and New Urbanization (-0.03%) [3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, with a focus on sectors such as Machinery Equipment, Consumer Goods, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and Financials [6] - The upcoming political bureau meeting and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision are key events to watch [6] - The overall economic performance remains resilient, with a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year [6] Investment Opportunities - The robotics sector is highlighted as a key area of growth, driven by advancements in AI and automation [5] - The innovative drug sector remains strong, with recent government policies favoring the procurement of established drugs while excluding innovative drugs from centralized purchasing [5] - Chinese biotech companies are seen as undervalued compared to their U.S. counterparts, presenting potential investment opportunities [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to maintain a slow upward trend despite short-term fluctuations, with technology stocks playing a significant role in the rebound [1][2]. Market Outlook - The market is likely in a phase of consolidation before a breakout, with two potential paths: continuing the upward trend or consolidating before challenging previous highs [2]. - Three conditions are necessary for a direct challenge to the previous high of 3674 points: implementation of fiscal stimulus policies, continued global environment easing, and sustained increase in trading volume [2]. Sector Highlights - The A-share market in July is anticipated to be driven by event-based themes, with a high likelihood of sector rotation [3]. - Key sectors to watch include: 1. Consumer expansion and domestic demand, with a focus on dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [3]. 2. Robotics, with a shift from humanoid to quadruped and functional robots, presenting opportunities in sensors and controllers [3]. 3. Semiconductor localization, focusing on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [3]. 4. Military industry, with expectations of order recovery and signs of bottoming out in Q1 reports [3]. 5. Innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to see a fundamental turning point in 2025 after a period of adjustment [3]. Market Review - The A-share market showed signs of stabilization and resumed an upward trend, with the ChiNext index rising over 1.7% [4]. - More than 3500 stocks rose, indicating a positive earning effect, with leading sectors including defense, telecommunications, electronics, and pharmaceuticals [4].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced an overall increase on July 17, with significant net inflows of capital, indicating a positive sentiment among investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3516.83 points, up 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.43% to 10873.62 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.75% to 2269.33 points [1]. - The total trading volume of both markets reached 15393.69 billion yuan, an increase of 973.31 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The net inflow of main funds in the two markets was approximately 69.86 billion yuan, with an opening net outflow of 16.82 billion yuan and a tail-end net inflow of 13.64 billion yuan [2][3]. - The CSI 300 index saw a net inflow of 50.83 billion yuan, while the ChiNext index had a net inflow of 19.64 billion yuan [2][4]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The electronics sector led with a net inflow of 186.98 billion yuan, followed by defense and military with 77.12 billion yuan, and the computer sector with 55.97 billion yuan [5]. - Conversely, the public utilities sector experienced a net outflow of 51.77 billion yuan, with transportation and banking sectors also seeing outflows of 22.70 billion yuan and 16.86 billion yuan, respectively [5]. Group 4: Institutional Activity - The top stocks with significant institutional net purchases included Meidi Xi with a 19.00% increase and a net buy of 140.19 million yuan, and Mankun Technology with a 20.01% increase and a net buy of 86.33 million yuan [8]. - Notable stocks with institutional interest also included Nanjing Jujian and Shouyao Holdings, both showing substantial price increases and net purchases [8]. Group 5: Analyst Ratings - China Shenhua received a "Buy" rating from Guotai Junan with a target price of 44.79 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 20.63% from its latest closing price [10]. - Jiangfeng Electronics was rated "Buy" by Guotai Junan with a target price of 83.27 yuan, suggesting a potential increase of 20.33% [10].